The electorate of Canberra covers the southern half of the national capital together with the bulk of the Australian Capital Territory’s thinly populated remainder, with northern Canberra accommodated by the seat of Fraser. Both seats were created when the territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974. The Australian Capital Territory had been a single electorate since the expansion of parliament in 1949, but its member only obtained full voting rights in 1968. A third electorate of Namadgi was created for the 1996 election, accommodating Tuggeranong and its surrounds in Canberra’s far south and pushing the Canberra electorate north of the lake to include the city’s centre and inner north. However, the previous order was reinstated when the seat entitlement to slipped back to two at the 1998 election, in large part due to Howard government cutbacks to the federal public service. The two ACT electorates presently have enrolment of around 130,000 voters each, compared with a national average of around 96,000.
The Australian Capital Territory electorate was won by an independent at its first election in 1949, but was held by Labor after 1951. Kep Enderby came to the seat at a 1970 by-election and carried over to Canberra in 1974, serving as Lionel Murphy’s successor as Attorney-General in 1975. He was then dumped by a 10.4% swing to the Liberals at the December 1975 election, and for the next two terms the seat was held for the Liberals by John Haslem. The seat’s natural Labor inclination finally reasserted itself in 1980 with the election of Ros Kelly, who served in the Hawke-Keating ministries from 1987 until she fell victim to the still notorious “sports rorts” affair in 1994. Kelly’s indulgent departure from parliament a year later was followed by a disastrous by-election result for Labor, with Liberal candidate Brendan Smyth gaining the seat off a 16.2% swing.
Smyth unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Namadgi at the 1996 election, and Canberra was won easily for Labor by Bob McMullan, who had served the ACT as a Senator since 1988. The reassertion of the old boundaries in 1998 caused McMullan to move to Fraser, the Labor margin in the redrawn Canberra being 5.1% lower than the one he secured in 1996. Canberra went to Annette Ellis, who had entered parliament as the member for Namadgi in 1996, while Fraser MP Steve Darvagel agreed to go quietly after a brief parliamentary career which began when he succeeded John Langmore at a by-election in February 1997. Ellis added 7.2% to an existing 2.3% margin at the 1998 election, and held the seat safely thereafter.
In February 2010, both Ellis and McMullan announced they would not contest the election due later that year. Large fields of preselection contestants emerged for both seats, with the front-runner in Canberra initially thought to be Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr and a former adviser to opposition leaders Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. However, Cooney shortly withdrew amid suggestions Kevin Rudd was ready to use national executive intervention to block him. The eventual winner was Gai Brodtmann, a former DFAT public servant who had established a local communications consultancy with her husband, senior ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Together with Andrew Leigh’s win in Fraser, Brodtmann’s win was seen as a rebuff to local factional powerbrokers who had pursued a deal in which the Left would support Mary Wood, adviser to Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek and member of the Centre Coalition (Right), and the Right would back the Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary and a member of the Left, in Fraser. However, Brodtmann was able to build a cross-factional support base of sufficient breadth to prevail over Wood by 123 votes to 109.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Tom Sefton, a Commonwealth public servant who has served in Afghanistan as a commando officer. Sefton polled a respectable 4.2% as a candidate for Molonglo at the October 2012 Australian Capital Territory election.
TLBD
Well of course it’s “crucial”. I mean really.
All things considered, a poll of the Australian
electorate by a professional polling organisation
at a time such as this must be regarded as crucial ..
even if you accept the notion that all the sound
and fury is some artificial creation of the media,
well there is sound and fury nevertheless so the
poll is crucial.
My guess is that Julia Gillard will claw back a
couple of points and that will be enough to save
her skin. She’s been lucky that way a couple of times
and I suspect we’ll see it again in 24 hours.
That said, a Newspoll that helps usher in PM Tony
Abbott could hardly be said to amount to good luck
for this country.
alias:
No probs. You should take ongoing photos as it rises. I’d be interested in seeing the colour change as it rises.
10/10 cloud in Canberra. Weather coming in from the East. No supermoon.
alias
Great photo!
@ggreenwald: The statement issued by Hong Kong (to the US) is just remarkable on several levels https://t.co/P4k3zkn9aH
One aspect was apparently not getting the paperwork right
[I am not “on” anything. I just refuse to believe these polls can be truly accurate given the reality of the way things are]
Clearly you need to go outside and speak to some people outside.
[The only negative that can be used against the ALP is the leadershit means chaos and disunity. ]
No, this is a symptom of the Cult of Gillardism that refuses to accept that Gillard has made some mistakes.
[Polls are not oracles just blurry snapshots of the past.]
2.5 years of polls produces a very good picture of public opinion.
[But everything about your view is consistent with the pragmatic all-spin approach of the ruling oligarchy around you.]
Quite the opposite. The Rudd-Gillard government has been all spin and no action on illegal immigration. The Labor Party, right left and centre, has spent six years trying to run and hide from this issue, to our immense political cost, and much more importantly at the cost of more than 1000 lives. Gillard and Abbott are mainly interested in trading slogans on this – I actually want to STOP THE GODDAM BOATS. Neither Rudd nor Gillard nor Abbott can do so, because they are too afraid of being called racists and xenophobes and offending Julian Burnside if they do what needs to be done.
Crucial for who?
Media?
Polling?
Voters?
Politicians?
Forums?
Blogs?
All of the Above?
None of the Above?
shows
Obviously you have been sucked in too. AAA rated economy and the 100 things done by AlP in office mean nothing to you.
I suggest you try using sources other than the MSM
I’ll do my best Confessions but domestic matters are looming large. A 9-year-old’s large homework assignment is due tomorrow and it’s been left too late.. as always..
@Pseophos/1507
No one will stop the boats.
Get your facts right.
The first step is an international treaty.
The second is to get rid of wars.
Third is get rid of Poverty.
Then so on.
@LittleLoudGuy: Brilliant dissection by Ad Astra of the use of polls as weapons in current Australian politics http://t.co/t3cpzlqwL5 #auspol
[My guess is that Julia Gillard will claw back a
couple of points and that will be enough to save
her skin. She’s been lucky that way a couple of times
and I suspect we’ll see it again in 24 hours.]
Yes that’s right, according to the Cult of Gillardism, a poll with Labor on 44% is considered good!
TBW –
What a load of pious nonsense.
Crucial, Zoidlord, because if a given member of Caucus is wavering on the line, then a two-point clawback by Julia Gillard could persuade them to stick with the status quo.. but another really dire poll (they’re all dire, it’s just a matter of the level of direness) could be enough to tip her/him over the line, fingers pinching nose, to Rudd. Multiply that by half a dozen or so and this could be quite decisive.
ShowsOn
Agreed. But two points back in JG’s direction will be interpreted as “light at the end of a very, very long tunnel” so it might just be enough. My position is well known: While Rudd is far less than perfect, he offers far and away the best prospect for Labor at this upcoming election.
[shows
Obviously you have been sucked in too. AAA rated economy and the 100 things done by AlP in office mean nothing to you.]
They may mean a lot to me, but at the election I only get ONE vote. In order to win Labor needs about another 6 million votes in addition to mine.
[I suggest you try using sources other than the MSM]
All of your howling at the “MSM” doesn’t win Labor one single extra vote. In fact it may alienate some people from voting Labor because they think you are crazy and just blame your problems on other things.
guytaur
Anyone who doesn’t agree with you has not been “sucked in”.
They are expressing their own opinion just as you express yours!
bluepill@1490
It’s not impossible Libs could get four in Tas, but unless there are preference defections (left party preferences Libs ahead of other left parties, or indie takes votes from left party then does likewise) then the swing required from 2010 is about 20 points. Even the ReachTEL monster, which was extremely bad for Labor at Reps level, wasn’t pointing to a swing quite that big. So it seems a remote prospect.
Four for the right in Queensland looks more realistic on Bludgertrack at present, ditto WA.
alias nice pickie
moon just emerged here with nice rain halo but high in sky so no spectacle
Anyway, homework duties call. Good evening (though with things this fluid, it will hard not to look in later).
Shows and Alias
Despite your fantasy there is not wavering. Even the MSM has stopped saying so. Just see Dennis Atkins of Courier Mail fame at end of Insiders.
Thanks Kinkajou.
Guytaur
How can the polls be ‘inaccurate’?
How weak is your grasp of statistics??
William has done a fine job with Bludger Track. On any measure, with any MOE used, the ALP is getting smashed.
ALP in-house terrorists have also lobbed grenades of internal ALP polling which is diabolical.
Journalists have not confected ANY leadership challenge in the last three years. EACH time it is due to disunity in the ALP.
Wayne Swan even denied the March 2012 coup up until 90 minutes before the event. Are you, for a second, trying to convince us that the treasurer was unaware of an impeding motion to spill??
Again.. LSD might explain the fractured reality you live in, otherwise, if it is a more permanent condition, I’d serious suggest Seroquel for your paranoid schizophrenia…
Any notion that ANY media can conspire to manipulate political opinion polls is pure fantasy.
The ALP is finished federally and critical at state levels.
Not a good state to be in.
Best wishes to you as well Jackol.
2bob
Sucked in is the words. There has been no leadership stuff happening within the ALP in the last fortnight. As you may remember I have been saying. Its all MSM made up BS.
[Agreed. But two points back in JG’s direction will be interpreted as “light at the end of a very, very long tunnel” so it might just be enough. My position is well known: While Rudd is far less than perfect, he offers far and away the best prospect for Labor at this upcoming election.]
Yes I think you are right that a couple of points improvement will save Gillard this week, but as 1983 shows, Labor could still change leader on the day the election is called and win.
Peter Van Onselen posted this on Twitter:
[Wow, Newspoll…big final sitting week coming up.]
https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/348691600840486912
But it is possible he was just shit stirring.
I think a primary vote with a 2 in front of it, confirming Nielsen, would seal the deal. Don’t expect to see it though – as Morgan said, the Nielsen poll didn’t capture the whole of the week. The week in which Morgan had it back to 50/50 amongst female voters
I guess we’ll know soon enough
1519
I do not think that there has ever been a swing of 2 seats in a half-Senate election, since proportional representation was introduced in 1949 and it usually swung by three seats under preferential block vote 1919-1946 and so it may not have happened since preferential voting was introduced.
bluepill
Ask Gallup in the US.
William has outlined poll results compared to Federal Election. All out by 3 to 4 %.
You cannot use the polls to predict. They are not oracles.
eg the popularity of PMJG and LOTO would be dramatically altered if X invaded NZ.
[Shows and Alias
Despite your fantasy there is not wavering. Even the MSM has stopped saying so. Just see Dennis Atkins of Courier Mail fame at end of Insiders.]
Guaytard
Your anger with the “MSM” will not help win Labor the election.
It would be slightly more useful for you to go outside and howl at the super-moon as you may happen to stumble upon someone else while outside and thus be able to ask them what is going on in the real world.
Shows
Your ignoring reality does not help Labor either.
Kevin
[It’s not impossible Libs could get four in Tas, but unless there are preference defections (left party preferences Libs ahead of other left parties, or indie takes votes from left party then does likewise) then the swing required from 2010 is about 20 points. Even the ReachTEL monster, which was extremely bad for Labor at Reps level, wasn’t pointing to a swing quite that big. So it seems a remote prospect.]
Yeah, I’d have to agree, it is remote at best (stranger things have happened though!).
However, at nearly 16% on Bilbo’s state figures to the right, it is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Tasmanians have also cooled considerably on the Greens since the last election. A few wild card independents with a Coalition end-point for preference webs and 4% is not impossible by any stretch.
Preferences on HTVs could also make a difference to disenchanted Tassie votes..
Shows
I see again you ignore the good Labor has done in favour of the MSMo narrative.
See the Dreyfuss presser yesterday launching prevention of discrimination against pregnant women.
[bluepill
Ask Gallup in the US.]
Yes, they stuffed up their estimates of voter turn out. The reason we know they stuffed up is because their estimate was very different from an average of all the other polls.
[You cannot use the polls to predict. They are not oracles.
eg the popularity of PMJG and LOTO would be dramatically altered if X invaded NZ]
If you can’t use polls to predict, how was Nate Silver able to predict every state correctly during the Presidential Election last year?
[Shows
I see again you ignore the good Labor has done in favour of the MSMo narrative.]
They have my vote, it is the 6 million others they need!
[See the Dreyfuss presser yesterday launching prevention of discrimination against pregnant women.]
The Dreyfuss (sic) presser yesterday launching prevention of discrimination against pregnant women will not help them win the next election while they have a deeply unpopular leader.
Shows
Nate Silver himself said polls get more credible the closer to the election you get.
[1294
Psephos
Chifley wanted to assert powers to direct the banks, to regulate lending and to control the creation of credit and control interest rates – all things we take completely for granted these days.
No, he wanted to take them into state ownership.]
Not at first…he merely sought to regulate credit…
[Labor had sought to secure power over the supply of money and credit – amidst opposition from the private banks. The High Court of Australia invalidated part of his government’s banking legislation, so in mid-1947 Chifley legislated to require at least local authorities and State governments to bank with the federally-owned Commonwealth Bank. The Melbourne City Council successfully appealed against the legislation in the High Court. In response Chifley then proposed the total nationalisation of the banks.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chifley_Government
[Shows
Nate Silver himself said polls get more credible the closer to the election you get.]
Howl at the super-moon mate, your other methods of convincing yourself aren’t working.
alias:
Understand re the child’s homework.
If you can manage to get some more photos, that would be great!
I appreciate getting the views and facts from people who know their economics and their politics.
The would / could / should brigade and fifth columnists …
shows
😆
I see reality. I see the economy is doing well. I see Labor doing lots of things.
What I do not see is the MSM reporting it. Instead they make up crap about leadershit. As has been proven over the last fortnight.
No Caucus numbers changing. Labor members telling the media they have not changed.
We have even seen people here say no he said believes that means Mr Rudd will challenge.
Its been amazing.
All based on wishful thinking and MSM made up crap.
Take no notice of this. It is alarmist spin, based on models, shonky data, and corrupt scientists who are merely seeking government funds.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/nsw-braces-for-worsening-weather/story-e6frfku9-1226668214561
[What I do not see is the MSM reporting it. Instead they make up crap about leadershit. ]
If Rudd is leader before the election will you go outside and actually support the party?
Yes or No?
Jaundiced View @1278 and Toorak Toff at 1479.
Kevin Lee’s post is indeed rather startling: more than anything else for the way it reveals an incredible level of naivete and stupidity on his part. He comes across as an incredibly unappealing person who didn’t bat an eyelid at the appalling actions of Kackie Jelly’s and Karen Chijoff’s hubbies; who broke his vows but who wanted to trade off his status as a priest politically; who chose to rat out his best mate; and who has now published an enormously indiscreet and possibly defamatory piece about all sorts of people.
So yes, bemused, I don’t like him.
All in all, he didn’t reveal very much that was especially new, other than some more details of Bill Heffernan’s long-suspected role as a subterranean political operative on behalf of Abbott. That a loose cannon like Abbott would choose to have an even looser cannon in the shape of Heffo doing his dirty work for him speaks volumes.
The other thing that the article revealed was the stuff about Andrew Nguyen in Fowler: there have been rumours circulating for a while about the Liberals offering a sort of “vanity candidacy” for safe Labor seats to people who are prepared to stump up a lot of cash. Lee seems to be providing some sort of suggestion of this in the case of Nguyen.
However, all the Opus Dei stuff sounds a bit unlikely. And the pedophile stuff sounds a bit like jumping on a bandwagon: has this bloke actually brought some tangible stuff forward yet, or is it all promises, promises?
One thing I can be sure of: if there really is some sort of Da Vinci Code conspiracy in the Liberal Party involving Tony Abbott, George Pell and various albinos, Kevin Lee would never have had a hope in hell of being invited to join it because he is simply TOO STUPID!!
sprocket
It’s a doozy isn’t it? It’s hard to describe in a few words, but it has openness, vindictiveness, in fact all the emotions, plus the insight into Lib pre-selection processes, plus the Catholic Church culture, the police element, the character of Ray himself, known Lib figures including Abbott. I read it out loud and my very small audience was spellbound. A gem.
Boerwar:
Did you hear that head of the World Bank (I think) who spoke quite sensibly about mitigating the effects of AGW?
I heard a grab on radio the other day driving home. He said wtte that how often are we hearing that we’re experiencing 1 in 100 year storms. How often do we need to hear it until we realise we should be doing something about our emissions now.
Made some touching references to his children and how he doesn’t want to be old and they’re his age and go ‘dad, you were president of the World Bank, why did you not do something back then?!’
There are many ways that polls can be inaccurate.
Quoted MOE, as thrown around here or occasionally when the OM bother to talk about uncertainty at all, is only the error introduced from sampling a subset of the total population.
If there are biases in your sampling method then you will introduce other error on top of MOE.
Of course the polling companies are aware of the impact of sampling bias, and try to correct for it in various ways. How successful they are in doing so is only measurable at election time.
I don’t know how much error there is in the polling. I suspect not a huge amount – the ALP is heading for a big loss.
However, it is silly to suggest “there is no error” or that the polls cannot be inaccurate – of course they can be and are, it’s just a matter of degree.
I find it particularly unfortunate that the various pseph types have jumped wholeheartedly into just accepting Reachtel polling. I think there are even more serious questions over Reachtel’s methodology, and we basically have no basis to judge Reachtel’s historical record.
Kevin Bonham, eg, seems dazzled by the sample size to lend Reachtel authority where I think, at least at the moment, it has no authority.
Shows
Will not happen. That is the reality. Rudd does not have the numbess and has never had the numbers in caucus in the last three years as the fact PMJG is still PM proves.
1206
Player One
[Abbott wants everything handed to him on a plate, just as he always has.]
I think it was BB who said that Abbott never won a fight that was not rigged in his favour.