The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.
I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).
I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.
showson
i mean JG resignation (as in age editorial) is the circumstance that is not included in his recent rhetoric
marky,
But, I’m sure you agree that Labor has delivered a considerable policy agenda in this term including carbon pricing, a mining tax, NDIS, aged care reform, plain package cigarette packaging, and latterly the Gonski reforms.
On top of that, the government has delivered strong economic growth, low inflation, interest rates at 50 year lows, low debt and strong employment.
Every thing else is drivel.
Just in case anyone missed it earlier, this one really does bear repeating.
Psephologist Kevin Bonham has trawled through election polling data three months out from various other elections and has concluded as follows:
Labor has a 1 per cent chance of winning under Julia Gillard’s leadership.
1 per cent!!!
I don’t usually use multiple exclamation points but really the nongs around here need to get a grasp of that reality.
And then say: “Yeah no worries! Onwards and upwards with our hero Julia!!”
sarah
based on your type of outburst rudd is a certainty
guytaur
An editorial is not ‘reporting’. It is the clear and obvious opinion of the editor. That’s why it is separate from the news section. It is an age-old newspaper tradition. Do you really not understand this?
[ It’s not about Mark Baker, or “men”. Have you read this from Gay Alcorn? First woman editor of the Sunday Age, and a woman with stridently independent views.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/misogyny-aside-gillard-is-her-own-worst-enemy-20130620-2olib.html ]
So your defence of one crap Age opinion piece is to quote another crap Age opinion piece? Well, obviously they must both be right, then!
Sarah Roberts makes more sense when she just attacks people based on the colour of the ties they own.
alias
How many of those comparison has KB done with NSW revolving leadership syndrome.
That is the metric not who is leader. Disunity is death and dumping Gillard as PM just increases not decreases that.
Its why the LNP is so keen for it to happen
JV
Do you not understand that is no longer relevant. The MSM have been shoving opinion as news for months now.
The Fairfax should keep their editorial out of it until the traditional time. They certainly are not calling for Abbot to resign. The real danger
brilliant age editorial. finally said. fairfax has been doing a great job all this week.
@Alias
So where are the scattering articles on Abbott?
Showsy,
Sarah has passion and a focus on policy.
I’ll back her over your lazy populism any day of the week.
[
And then say: “Yeah no worries! Onwards and upwards with our hero Julia!!” ]
Why does she frighten you so much?
First point Guytaur: how can you be worried about death when you are already dead under Julia Gillard?
Second point, the LNP has been backpedalling really fast on the back-to-Kevin option. They obviously don’t want it. They have obviously done their own polling to indicate it would shake up the race and place Abbott under pressure.
And why would they want it? They are coasting to one of the biggest electoral victories since Federation thanks to the ineptitude of Julia Gillard? Why change?
Sarah you are now getting hysterically silly. I would love it for Julia to stay on but i more about Labor winning.
Julia lost the female swinging voter a long time ago with the single parent cutbacks to single moms, and look at her support for her mate in Batman a man who supports her, she does not back a woman here. So you really think Julia is a woman’ best friend sorry her credibility here is gone completely. This country i am afraid Sarah will for now continue to be miscognist and racist for many a day we not live in utopian world where it change win Julia speaks.
All i want is a leader who can win the election to keep a party in who will have the policies which care and support woman more, i talk to swinging voters Sarah perhaps who should as well.
alias
Your assumption is wrong. Rudd will get no better treatment from the MSM than PMJG has.
Plus PMJG will not resign just because Gina Rinahardt and shareholders want her to,
Player One
I do not want to see federal Labor reduced to the pitiful rump they are in both Queensland (seven seats!) and NSW. If that doesn’t scare you, you’re not paying attention.
[ @GeorgeBludger: Good Q. “@BrianCrawford0: @MikeCarlton01 @Malcolm4Leader so we’ll see equally venomous call for (23% satisfaction rate) Abbott to resign?” ]
Exactly.
If any politician should be resigning for the good of the country, it is Abbott.
Genuine unhingement has taken hold in the affiliated bunker.
Sarah,
You must be a woman. Someone just said you are hysterical for holding a strong opinion.
Sad isn’t it?
alias
You are obviously a LNP voter. You have never had a positive post about PMJG that I have seen.
Guytaur
It is not about how Rudd will be treated by the MSM. You miss the point entirely.
It’s about how Rudd will take the fight up to Abbott. Put him on the back foot. Make him defend his absurd policies. Make him accountable. Turn a cake-walk into a contest. Stop the annihilation.
[But, I’m sure you agree that Labor has delivered a considerable policy agenda in this term including carbon pricing, a mining tax, NDIS, aged care reform, plain package cigarette packaging, and latterly the Gonski reforms.
On top of that, the government has delivered strong economic growth, low inflation, interest rates at 50 year lows, low debt and strong employment.
Every thing else is drivel.]
Have a look at the title of this thread COMRADE! If the Coalition gets around 56.5% or even a couple % less on election day they will get a majority in the Senate and all those good reforms you just listed could all be wound back in the space of 1 year let alone 3.
alias
You miss the point entirely. You know it too.
Males can be hysterical too. PB tonight is proof of that.
Greensborough the policies have been good, but people rarely look at the policies they look at the leaders and i can only think of one election where policies mattered and that was 1993. Labor still managed to lose with the GST in 1998 because Beazley was not liked and never was. Leaders matter because swinging voters who rarely look at policies always ask are they strong, do they look like i can trust them, do they provide me with security? Make me feel safe?
marky marky
You overestimate the beauty contest effect.
Guytaur
Your post @1974 stands as testament to the fact that you’ve finally run out of the endless reciting of mantras, the relentless calling “black” as “white”.
I suspect you read The Age editorial and a small voice inside your head said “Hey that’s true” and much and all as it pains you to admit it, a small part of you has died because for months you’ve been defending a perfectly decent person, Julia Gillard, but a person who is not capable of leading Labor to a victory – or even staving off a shocking defeat.
Is anyone going to address the criticisms of the editorial or are we all just going to repeatedly assert how important it is?
alias
I see you do not mention owners influence on editorial of which there is plenty of historical evidence of practice in past.
[alias
Posted Friday, June 21, 2013 at 11:37 pm | PERMALINK
Really Sarah Roberts..
It’s not about Mark Baker, or “men”. Have you read this from Gay Alcorn? First woman editor of the Sunday Age, and a woman with stridently independent views.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/misogyny-aside-gillard-is-her-own-worst-enemy-20130620-2olib.html%5D
No, I haven’t read Gay Alcorn yet, but I will.
And I will say this.
I’ve already criticised Alcorn on other forums for her group-think regarding her foray back into the fray after being away from the msm.
So, let’s put that as a starting point. I’ll get back to you when I’ve read her column.
My criticism of Mark Baker is not because he is a man, but because he is besties with Nick Styant-Browne, a man on a mission who wants to destroy Gillard, and who “leaked” the files he illegally took from Slater & Gordon to Baker.
All of which make Styant-Browne looke like an incompetent fool, rather than Gillard not doing her job properly.
Once that was discovered, Baker has been sitting there for the past year waiting to stick the boots in to Gillard.
You witnessed that tonight.
What a brave bloke. Continually create an atmosphere with biased commentary, and then try to kick the living shit out of someone.
If that happened on the street, he’d be up for assault.
[ Second point, the LNP has been backpedalling really fast on the back-to-Kevin option. They obviously don’t want it. They have obviously done their own polling to indicate it would shake up the race and place Abbott under pressure. ]
The media have been backpedaling on this only since it became apparent to everyone (except some loonies here on PB) that The Kevurrection just wasn’t going to happen. Kevin simply didn’t have the numbers. Not even close. Again!
So now it’s back to focusing all guns on “big bad Julia” who stubbornly refuses to step down even though the Age had decreed it to be “in the national interest”.
They have stamped their little foot in fury and are now going to hold their breath until their masthead turns blue!
roger m crawford @rogeramjet60 2m
…
Can’t we all agree on just one thing??? please
Showsy,
If they are the right policies, then we put them back on the agenda and get them up again. The “struggle” for a better society is not distracted by electoral misfortune.
Medibank was dismantled by the Libs after 75. When Hawke came in it was virtually the first agenda item. Everyone now accepts Medicare.
You spend too much time worrying about your popularity, comrade.
[Showsy,
Sarah has passion and a focus on policy.
I’ll back her over your lazy populism any day of the week.]
?????????????????????
If this is the case, why did she have a go at me based on the colour of ties I may or may not own?
That doesn’t strike me as a serious policy discussion.
jaundiced view
its fun to carry on on sidelines especially when lines are drawn and half here will soon be vanguished. this place has always been a battleground – why not the desperate sexist cry – if you oppose JG you must be a woman loathing bloke – who knows perhaps JG herself moonlights here
geoffrey
If you think PMJG moonlights on a blog you must also think ASIO is tracing your IP address so mysterious bad luck things can happen like car breaking down so you are late for work
if PMJG survives this week she will that much more unpopular. she drop dramatically after march. no point with regrets or blame or analysis of past – we are June and there are three months to go.
Greensborough perhaps you should also ask yourself when was the last time the Libs were in power federally and in NSW, VIC AND QLD and WA and probably TAS and SA soon at the same time, this makes it much easier to do what they like.
@Geoffrey/1986
Or just acting silly.
guytaur
is that an utterance of menace?
[ I do not want to see federal Labor reduced to the pitiful rump they are in both Queensland (seven seats!) and NSW. If that doesn’t scare you, you’re not paying attention. ]
So much frightens you, doesn’t it? But instead of doing anything about it, you’d much prefer to just sit and whinge.
geoffrey
Yes, it will probably be as hysterical as this until the election. Not much room left on the mast for all the nailed colours. There’ll be tears before bedtime.
geoffrey
That is an utterance of how silly I thought that comment was.
Almost tin foil hat territory
If Shorten and his gang continue to support her than after the election these people will not be liked one bit for not at least putting forward someone who gave Labor a chance at least.
By the way Shorten is no leader he has no charisma and personality and looks he does not have either, he is more the Simon Crean type.
[marky marky
Posted Friday, June 21, 2013 at 11:57 pm | PERMALINK
Sarah you are now getting hysterically silly. I would love it for Julia to stay on but i more about Labor winning.
Julia lost the female swinging voter a long time ago with the single parent cutbacks to single moms, and look at her support for her mate in Batman a man who supports her, she does not back a woman here. So you really think Julia is a woman’ best friend sorry her credibility here is gone completely. This country i am afraid Sarah will for now continue to be miscognist and racist for many a day we not live in utopian world where it change win Julia speaks.
All i want is a leader who can win the election to keep a party in who will have the policies which care and support woman more, i talk to swinging voters Sarah perhaps who should as well.]
Actually, I think you’re a swinging dick.
You’re not worth another moment of my time.
At least with showsy et al, they actually care about society and Australia.
Bedtime for me. Night
Good night Guytaur
Everyone on here should take a powder. The Gillard haters should take comfort in the fact that she will either be out of power next week, or in the week beginning September 17. The Rudd haters should take comfort from the fact that he probably won’t be in power at the end of next week, but, if he is, will probably lose on 15 September. The Opposition supporters here can just relax and take time to smell the flowers. And since none of you really seem to give a rat’s about what impact this will have on the voters, they don’t have to be factored in. “The animals looked from pig to man and back to pig again, but already it was impossible to tell which was which.”
marky marky
Crean is a saint beside that flea Shorten.