BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

The Coalition chalks up a century on the latest BludgerTrack seat projection, as Labor’s polling position continues to sour.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.

I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).

I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,088 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Shows

    You may have missed the live pressers. No doubt from them caucus is sailing with PMJG win or lose.]
    CORRECTION: you mean lose or lose.

  2. TP,

    No, the Captain gave them choice of a lifeboat or staying in their cabin.

    The only proviso was they had to listen to someone reading your dirges continuously if they took the life boats.

  3. This is a scathing critique of a Prime Minister who does not capture the imagination of the Australian populace. It is time she quit and let Rudd be leader and for the factional and unelected union buffoons to accept the situation. If Shorten cannot do so than after the election he will unliked but all including many within his own party.
    And yes The Age is correct Abbott policies will do nothing for this country. His policies on Climate Change are the biggest worry and this i think is part of Age’ concern as well. Whilst the media running country concerns me on this occasion i accept them stating something which is fundamentally important in regards to the future of this country.

  4. [And yes The Age is correct Abbott policies will do nothing for this country. His policies on Climate Change are the biggest worry and this i think is part of Age’ concern as well. Whilst the media running country concerns me on this occasion i accept them stating something which is fundamentally important in regards to the future of this country.]

    If only these people had some sort of way of getting their views across!

  5. mimhoff

    Posted Friday, June 21, 2013 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    And yes The Age is correct Abbott policies will do nothing for this country. His policies on Climate Change are the biggest worry and this i think is part of Age’ concern as well. Whilst the media running country concerns me on this occasion i accept them stating something which is fundamentally important in regards to the future of this country.

    If only these people had some sort of way of getting their views across!
    ————————————————–
    perhaps they could try “letters to the Editor”

  6. I was in a rugby team that lost by 40 once in a game we should have won. It was due to poor leadership and weak forwards. I still carry the glorious dignity of that with me.

  7. alias

    [And The Age, a progressive publication in Julia Gillard’s home state, has taken the unusual step of begging her to stand aside for the sake of the national discourse, and Labor’s chances at the election.]

    Unusual step?

    See my 1855

    Hey, don’t even bother, for your comfort I’ll repost in full

    [Sarah Roberts
    Posted Friday, June 21, 2013 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Who’d believe The Age editorial asking for Gillard to stand aside, if Mark Baker has anything to do with it.

    He’s best friends with Nick Styant-Browne, the bloke who was in charge of conveyancing at Slater & Gordon, and who got the blame for being less than vigilant in the acquisition of a property by the AWU?

    Hair-Oiled? Read all about it:

    http://www.vexnews.com/2012/11/besties-age-editor-fails-to-disclose-friendship-with-key-player-in-gillard-embezzlement-tale/%5D

    See, the problem is, ever since Mark Baker took over editorship of The Age, he’s been on Gillard’s case.

    So, sonny, not so much a lack of home state patronage, as men in ties of any colour being very, very angry with a little woman.

    Yep, what we’ve got here is men engaging in tittle-tattle, you know, unsubstantiated gossip, to get rid of someone they don’t like.

    But Gillard’s answered every question thrown at her about this, and she’s too much integrity to put the blame on any of the men at the time, where of course she could have.

    So, before your start eulogising The Age editorial staff, take a look at the facts.

  8. If the editors of The Age wanted me to be convinced of their argument, they shouldn’t have written a bad editorial.

    A good, strong and effective newspaper editor gets the message through to the public by dent of its communication skills, judgment and force of personality.

    The Age has failed at this. It really has.

  9. [ http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/for-the-sake-of-the-nation-ms-gillard-should-stand-aside-20130621-2oo6e.html ]

    What a load of self-righteous, self-serving and self-aggrandizing bullshit!

    The premise of this editorial seems to be that Abbott is an unstable idiot with stupid and dangerous policies, but since Rudd is a useless and flawed has-been that no-one trusts anymore and who can’t even summon the numbers for a challenge, this means Gillard must resign for the good of the nation? Oh, Really?

    I think this is the tipping point all right – the point at which the Age finally discards any semblance of objectivity, reason or rationality, and just has a huge dummy-spit at Gillard because they haven’t managed to unseat the government, depite three years of trying. Waaah! Nasty Julia won’t give Kenny another turn! Waaah!

    How fortunate for Australia – and unfortunate for Gina – that almost no-one reads this crap any more. I few months ago I gave Fairfax a year before they went under.

    I think I was being overly optimistic.

  10. shows

    [I’m disappointed that Gillard hasn’t realised it is time to resign. Surely she understands at this point that it is in the best interests of the party that there be a new leader at the election.]

    I’m so disappointed you don’t know when to give up too.

    Surely you understand at this point that it is in the best interests of the part that you get behind the leader.

    Oh dear, another bloke lost to blue ties, nothing but blue ties.

  11. “@LeslieHammondQC: That @theage editorial is nothing more than a plea by Fairfax for the PM to step down so they can retrospectively justify 3 years of crapola”

  12. “@davrosz: @MikeCarlton01 @Malcolm4Leader Furthermore, if we are talking Fairfax, Grattan has played an almost equal destabilising role to Hartcher.”

  13. “@GeorgeBludger: .@MikeCarlton01 Ashby? Pynes promises for preselection? Abbott’s slush fund? where are those? @frankscan65 @davrosz @Malcolm4Leader”

  14. Sarah, i would like to get behind the leader, but the problem is she does not capture the minds of the swinging voters who matter in this country. You and i will vote Left but the swinging voters will not because they do not like her. The question now is do you want the Liberals to be in for perhaps 9 years and ruin much of what Labor has done or do you Labor to possibly win, the time to wake up is now not in three months when it is to late.

  15. [for the sake of the nation the editor of the age should step aside and let journalists write stories about policies]

    No one is interested in polices that stopped years ago, it is a just a beauty pageant these days

  16. Last one but good one

    “@mazage6: After falsely claiming ad nausium that JG wld gone by @theage are now BEGGING her to resign to be proven right? LMFAO! #auspol”

  17. Spot on, We Want Paul, people are not interested in policies and never have been, it is all about the beauty contest.
    At my work i talk to swinging voters and they love Rudd and Gillard and that is the truth. Abbott they hate as well but prefer him over Julia.

  18. [I’m so disappointed you don’t know when to give up too.

    Surely you understand at this point that it is in the best interests of the part that you get behind the leader.

    Oh dear, another bloke lost to blue ties, nothing but blue ties.]
    This is effing hilarious because you don’t have the faintest idea how much campaigning I have done. Nor do you know anything about the colour of the ties I own.

    Try to write higher quality posts in future.

  19. marky marky

    absolutely true

    gillard can’t even hold confidence of fairfax press. they have declared war in her and they are correct. i hope they sink the ship soon. anyone here who puts up the tired old msm conspiratorial theory needs to have a good think about their political future

  20. This would hit home to any politician with a conscience:
    “@brynnobrien much better to be human rights abuser than electorally unfashionable”

  21. [ “@LeslieHammondQC: That @theage editorial is nothing more than a plea by Fairfax for the PM to step down so they can retrospectively justify 3 years of crapola” ]

    Not exactly. Rather, I think the Age is trying a move known as an “all in” bet in poker.

    It generally occurs when you don’t have enough chips left to keep up with the game. Instead, you bet all your remaining chips in one hit. You then have nothing left to offer the game, and take no further part in the betting. The game may go on, but you can only win back the current table stake.

    It is most often a desperation move used by those who know they have nothing left to lose.

    Put another way, I think the Age may have just dealt themselves out.

  22. I would agree with this somewhat, especially how the Age carried on about Craig Thomson and prositutes and wasting small amounts of money how about the people who put millions in trusts and tax havens AGE, but on this issue they have a point, the last election campaign was pathetic and it was both parties debated dribble and both run terrible campaigns and Gillard was hopeless last time.

  23. “@GeorgeBludger: Good Q. “@BrianCrawford0: @MikeCarlton01 @Malcolm4Leader so we’ll see equally venomous call for (23% satisfaction rate) Abbott to resign?””

  24. Makes an enormous amount of sense Guytaur.

    The Age produces a coherent, scathing editorial with which you happen to disagree.

    And lo and behold, of course that proves that this is no longer a newpaper of quality.

    Well actually, the quality of Fairfax newspapers including The Age has, in fact, fallen away considerably in recent times owing to poor management and a host of bad decisions by clowns who know nothing about journalism.

    However, in the face of that, the editorial team has managed to produce a very potent editorial that has clearly blind-sided various posters here with its logic and devastatingly effective summation of the case for Gillard to go.

    They are reduced to the usual drunken heckling so familiar around here.

  25. [
    Jack Sumner ‏@preciouspress 53m

    @JoshBBornstein @vanOnselenP Don’t know what you think Peter but this spiteful attack on a PM should not be made under editorial anonymity.
    ]
    Jack Summer summed it up, the anti Gillard crowd really are quite pathetic.

    They have thrown everything at it and she still stands, all that is left is a pathetic plea to step down.

    Unmitigated wankers.

  26. re: The Age editorial pleading for Gillard to resign

    You shameless hypocrites.

    Not a single word about the media’s central role in creating the appalling cesspit that is our current political culture, by acting as a endless free propaganda conduit for Abbott & Co.

    If anybody should be resigning and becoming apprentice public toilet cleaners, it is virtually the entire mainstream media.

    What a sick joke.

  27. [marky marky
    Posted Friday, June 21, 2013 at 11:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Sarah, i would like to get behind the leader, but the problem is she does not capture the minds of the swinging voters who matter in this country.

    You and i will vote Left but the swinging voters will not because they do not like her. The question now is do you want the Liberals to be in for perhaps 9 years and ruin much of what Labor has done or do you Labor to possibly win, the time to wake up is now not in three months when it is to late.]

    You know what, marky marky

    You and your ilk make me sick.
    You’re too scared to stick up for Gillard.
    You’re too scared to say anything to help.
    You sit there, witless, listening to all sorts of crap, but you can’t say anything in case you “lose a deal”

    In case you jeopardise your income.

    But, by not saying anything you’re going to jeopardise your own income and the the income of a lot of other people.

    Do you ever think of that?

    Did you ever think of sticking up for Labor policy? Did you? Once? Ever?

    This really isn’t about Gillard, it’s about Labor having a plan, a vision, for the country.

    If you can’t counter any policy on the grounds that Julia Gillard is leader, then I feel sorry for you.

    If I sound angry, I am.

    You blokes always have thought that sticking up for a female somehow made you less than masculine.

    Yet, I have witnessed so many blokes who don’t know what’s happened to them when a nice girl has walked away.

    That the blokes who do get the nice girls are the ones who actually showed they cared about them.

    Good policy and good women are not mutually exclusive.

    Show you care. About policy. And for women.
    Stop the shitheads in their tracks.

  28. Murdoch wants Julia to stay he fears a Rudd return could sweep Labor back in power. Murdoch is smart he knows how to sell papers and knows who a winner is when he sees it.
    Leaders who are attractive and who have a personality he knows are winners.
    Why does he have page three girls because he knows by doing so he will increase his sales significantly.

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