The latest weekly BludgerTrack poll update has the Coalition reaching triple figures on the seat projection for the first time since its inception in November. This follows a 0.7% shift on two-party preferred after the addition of results from Nielsen (57-43), Galaxy (55-45), Essential Research (54-46) and three separate figures from Morgan: the weekly multi-mode poll, which came in at 54.5-45.5 (going off previous election preferences), and two small sample phone surveys, including one from a week earlier which initially escaped my notice, which both had the Coalition leading 59-41.
I’ve also had occasion to update my relative state result calculations off the back of Nielsen’s regular breakdowns and the large sample Tasmanian poll published by ReachTEL on the weekend. The latter has had a dramatic impact on Tasmania’s vote projection, which moves 4.2% to the Liberals in relative terms, without making any difference to the seat projection (a clean sweep being a hard nut for the Liberals to crack, at least according to my model). The Nielsen figures also lead to a slight strengthening in Labor’s relative position in Victoria and Western Australia, and a weakening in Queensland and South Australia (remembering that this is a zero-sum consideration: if Labor weakens in one seat it must strengthen somewhere else).
I’ve also done some tinkering with the way the model handles the bias and accuracy of Nielsen and Essential Research. This hasn’t made a substantial difference to the change from last week to this week, but there are some slight changes to the progress of the trendlines in the sidebar charts over the full course of the term, with the Greens starting out a little higher and falling further to reach their current position.
alias,
B grade is being derivative.
Oh, you already have.
[I think this is the tipping point.]
Oh for heavens sake! The last ‘tipping point’ you hyperventilated over was Barrie Cassidy’s Insiders declaration. Which he walked back on last Sunday, and doubly so in his column today. How do you feel having cloaked yourself in Cassidy for 2 weeks only to be left standing naked at the end of it?
@Alias
Lets see Alias, TheAge!
NO Author.
Labor needs new policies, not just a new leader 492 comments
Women at stake in ugly debate 436 comments
Abbott sees north as next frontier 425 comments
Gillard brought voters’ contempt upon herself 395 comments
PM’s cynical ploy fails to win voters 391 comments
A magic act that stretches credulity 366 comments
Gillard’s fall is far bigger than Labor’s 327 comments
Politics wrap: June 18, 2013 299 comments
Senators fire up at the PM over Crossin’s dumping 279 comments
Politics wrap: June 20, 2013 253 comments
I see only 1 that’s for Abbott that is for turning…
alias
Posted Friday, June 21, 2013 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
No Confessions. Read the editorial. This, among other reasons:
The opposition under Tony Abbott has contentious policies on the carbon tax, the mining tax and schools funding; these are just the start of it. Yet Labor under Ms Gillard has been unable to step up to the contest. Mr Abbott is being allowed to run almost entirely unchallenged with his preposterous claim that a Coalition government would ”stop the boats”, in part by turning back the pathetic trail of rickety vessels laden with asylum seekers. This is a potentially dangerous and deeply dispiriting approach. Labor’s inability to unscramble this sloganeering is damning.
=================================================
The media can choose what it writes. IT chooses to keep harping on about the leadership challenge(sic). It is a decision by he MEDIA that they DONT write/discuss Abbott and his policies.
It is not the fault of Gillard/Rudd or the Labor Party
Who’d believe The Age editorial asking for Gillard to stand aside, if Mark Baker has anything to do with it.
He’s best friends with Nick Styant-Browne, the bloke who was in charge of conveyancing at Slater & Gordon, and who got the blame for being less than vigilant in the acquisition of a property by the AWU?
Hair-Oiled? Read all about it:
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/11/besties-age-editor-fails-to-disclose-friendship-with-key-player-in-gillard-embezzlement-tale/
AA,
Sounds more like a confession than an editorial.
A couple of hail Julias will set them right.
Barrie Cassidy did no such thing in his column today Confessions.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/engaging-the-nation-20130621-2oo4k.html
The MSM now pleading for politicians to focus on policy.
The MSM have struggled valiantly to try to bring policy to the fore over recent times but the nasty politicians have thwarted them at every turn.
Bravely the MSM again enter the fray and try to take back the debate for the good of the people.
Bravest of the braaave, Sir MSM.
Sarah Roberts
You are talking nonsense. Union leaders who try to influence Labor MPs in how to vote, with the threats of recriminations and reprisals, are thugs. How can you disagree with that?
Gillard retains her position as a result of unelected union leaders seeking to influence Labor MPs in not so subtle ways. How can you disagree with that?
Your reference to Rudd undermining Gillard (mostly spread by Gillard apologists) if true, may be a consequence of the white-anting and undermining of Rudd when PM.
The Union movement is part of the Labor Party but that doesn’t given them the right to interfere in Labor MPs choosing a Leader, surely.
Would it be acceptable for Labor MPs to publicly or privately interfere in union elections? Of course not.
feeney,
It appears I confused you with another regular poster regarding my earlier post.
I was in error.
My sincere apologies.
The ALP are going to lose.
Everything else said here on this blog that fails to acknowledge this inevitability is just masturbatory drool.
Get a grip folks.
It’s over.
The tories are coming back to town with sheriff Tony in charge and everything is going to be shit.
Thanks Julia.
Zoidlord
No author?
OK, let’s just go over the basics here. For hundreds of years, newspapers have opined on matters of current interest in “editorials”, also known as “leaders”. These pieces have never carried a byline because the opinions expressed in these pieces are the collective thoughts of the senior personnel at the newspaper.
The top editors all sit around and reach a consensus on the issue of the day, and then commission a “leader writer” to reflect those views in the editorial.
alias:
Yes he did.
I don’t understand why people in the Federal Labor Party haven’t forced Julia out. It’s been clear they cannot possibly win another election with her for a long time now. What is their rationale for keeping her?
I am starting to think that the Libs have played a blinder on this – by keeping Abbott, they have minimised the number of people willing to jump ship from Labor to Liberal as everyone can plainly see the man is an idiot. As a result, the pressure on Julia to go, while strong, has not been as strong as it would have been with a better Liberal leader. If they’d had someone else instead of Abbott, Labor would have had to get rid of Julia ages ago, and it would have been a close contest. Cunning sods.
Confessions:
No, he didn’t. Quote one line where he indicates as much please.
this is a marathon effort from you Alias to slag and bag any progressive commenter today.
Have you ever thought of getting a life?
feeney
no, it’s you talking nonsense.
You try to convince on the one hand that Gillard is a puppet of the unions, and on the other that she’s a North Korean-type Dear Leader.
You can’t have it both ways.
The Labor Party is a result of the Union Movement, and of course it gives them a say in the leadership of its political arm.
I’m guessing you had no qualms about Hawkes’ ascendency over Bill Hayden. Whatever it takes, heh?
And we accept that. We didn’t care that Richo, for example, did every dirty trick in the book, because at least he kept it in-house.
We’re a bit upset with him at the moment because he’s telling tales out of school. He’s white-anting the party from without.
But that’s okay, we can handle it. We all know the Libs and the Nats and the Greens have their own factional systems.
But what we won’t handle is white-anting from within.
And on that score, Rudd can get stuffed.
Jimbo Jones
I think you might be onto something there.
But don’t try peddling your views here. This blog has rapidly become the “We Want Julia To Lead Us To A Noble
If Devastating Defeat” blog.
So to recap, we have:
– Barrie Cassidy walking quickly away from his confident predictions of a leadership change on his show.
– The usual entrail readers continuing to read entrails, but nothing much changes.
– R*dd Cultists forced to watch video replays of R*dd in TV interviews in slow motion to detect any variation on his public statements, however imperceptible.
Meanwhile reality continues to pass them by.
GG @ 1860
Apology accepted, no problems.
Being a Union rep is a thankless task, not something that endears itself to me.
Sproket
Cite one instance where I have “slagged” or “bagged” any poster whatsoever. I am the height of good manners even when faced with the obtuse mindsets of die-hard Julia Gillard supporters determined to see Labor achieve its worst ever defeat.
[Gillard retains her position as a result of unelected union leaders seeking to influence Labor MPs in not so subtle ways. How can you disagree with that?]
Well that is what this has been all about. The factional toy soldiers went out early to slag Rudd in any and every way possible, and make out this was all about him being too tough for them to deal with.
But it is about those nasty democratically elected MPs wanting to be the government. And Gillard much to her own disgrace has been their tool, but fortunately a bad one which has allowed the chickens to come home…
But I know some here want to be all about Gillard, how wonderful she is, how nasty and misogynist everyone is, how things have been so much harder for her. But she is just the pinata to keep Rudd out, to protect the party from democracy.
Sorry, “Sprocket”.. didn’t mean to mis-spell your handle.
As for “getting a life”, I have to sit at this computer for other reasons, so it’s a distraction.
[No, he didn’t. Quote one line where he indicates as much please.]
I don’t need to quote one line, as I can simply quote the entire article.
Nowhere does Cassidy back up his statements on Insiders the other week. He knows he was gamed by R*dd and his boosters.
@Alias/1862
And? That means no one can blame TheAge.
Jimbo Jones
you’re absolutely correct about the Libs.
They think they’ve got it in the bag. They’re so relaxed, they’re busy “Sunning Cods”
Psst, let’s keep it that way.
Lateline is fun
Coalition North plan in debate now
Confessions
You haven’t recapped at all.
The key points are: You are knee deep in a thread with a BludgerTrack showing the LNP will get more than 100 seats.
Kevin Bonham, another psephologist, has calculated that Labor’s chances of victory under Gillard are 1 per cent, based on the analysis of polling data three months out for various other elections.
And The Age, a progressive publication in Julia Gillard’s home state, has taken the unusual step of begging her to stand aside for the sake of the national discourse, and Labor’s chances at the election.
That is the recap.
Bob Brown is still around.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/17696429/bob-brown-applauds-sa-same-sex-bill/
I imagine he might feature more in Greens campaigning this election. The party is surely missing his media presence and pull.
[But I know some here want to be all about Gillard, how wonderful she is, how nasty and misogynist everyone is, how things have been so much harder for her. But she is just the pinata to keep Rudd out, to protect the party from democracy.]
I’m disappointed that Gillard hasn’t realised it is time to resign. Surely she understands at this point that it is in the best interests of the party that there be a new leader at the election.
Sure she won the leadership ballot early last year and was unopposed earlier this year, but that means absolutely nothing when she has completely failed to put the party in an even remotely competitive position.
Peter Costello said a lot of stupid things but he pointed out that Labor runs based on the cult of the party whereas the Liberals run based on the cult of the leader. Sadly Gillard seems to be trying to import the ‘cult of the leader’ idea from the Liberal Party, which will just result in a 1975 style loss.
Given I don’t read the OO, when was the last time a positive news story for the ALP lead its front page?
Hopefully this Rudd soap opera ends this time next week and the PM can finally put it all to bed.
We, that’s the collective group of Australians, allowed a situation to occur where a clown (TA) of the highest order may become PM. Why on god’s name say about us.
Will guarantee, interest will rise over the next 12 months, inflation will rise over the next 12 months.
alias
Still denying reality I see. You should work for the MSM
So there you have it. Relocate north to be paid for by foreign aid
alias@1844
That editorial was scathing, all the more so because it’s clear they consider Abbott and his “policies’ a grave danger to Australia.
[Hopefully this Rudd soap opera ends this time next week and the PM can finally put it all to bed.]
And what happens if Rudd is leader by Thursday night and PM by Friday? Will you support him in the interests of the party?
[OK, let’s just go over the basics here. For hundreds of years, newspapers have opined on matters of current interest in “editorials”, also known as “leaders”. These pieces have never carried a byline because the opinions expressed in these pieces are the collective thoughts of the senior personnel at the newspaper.]
Okay, so it’s the collective thoughts of the senior personnel of The Age that Julia Gillard should resign because The Age is giving the Coalition a free run.
Shows
You may have missed the live pressers. No doubt from them caucus is sailing with PMJG win or lose.
Yes YB, it’s a scathing, well-reasoned, incisive and powerful case made by The Age.
It is very rare for a newspaper to editorialise in this way. I think anyone giving the piece a fair reading, and not through the prism of pro-Gillard fanatacism, cannot fail but be struck by its sincerity.
alias
How much of the Editorial was dictated by Shareholder Gina Rinehart?
Rose+/-…: ” The tories are coming back to town with sheriff Tony in charge and everything is going to be shit.”
“…But everything else is fine?..”
Wrong Mimhoff.
Once again, it’s a case of blaming the messenger. A good, strong and effective leader gets the message through to the public by dent of her or his communication skills, judgment and force of personality.
I realise you don’t want to acknowledge that Julia Gillard has failed in this.
But she has.
alias
It is very rare for a newspaper to editorialise in this way. I think anyone giving the piece a fair reading, and not through the prism of pro-Rudd fanatacism, cannot fail but be struck by its self serving bullshit.
@Alias/1888
For one to label everyone Pro-Gillard is just asking for it.
I guess the Captain of the Titanic tried to tell all the passengers to stay put, how dare they not want to go down with dignity?
TP
You starting on Clive Palmer now?
Sarah Roberts
Thanks for the advice on the pic.twitter photos. I won’t explain what I was doing wrong but it works now with your instruuctions.
Cheers
That is a very dumb question Guytaur. The antipathy within the editorial department towards Gina Rinehart is well known, and even if this were not so, the notion that a shareholder would dictate the contents of an editorial is quite laughable.
I know it appeals to the conspiracy theorists, but it just isn’t so.
Gee TP
You sound like you’ve been punched in the nads.
Did you get an enlightenment on the way to post?
[But it is about those nasty democratically elected MPs wanting to be the government.]
How bleeding strange, in a democracy, no less. Tsk tsk.
And?
[. . . Gillard much to her own disgrace has been their tool, but fortunately a bad one which has allowed the chickens to come home…]
I could almost weep. What a sad story.
Except, Gillard is nobody’s tool, nor nobody’s fool.
Wake up to yourself, and your self-indulgent misery. Gillard has done wonders for the party. She’s kept together a misfit of allegiances to create the best minority federal government ever.
And it hasn’t come apart. The Indies are still onside. What a victory for the ALP.
Celebrate, stop castigating. Enjoy.
GG
In what way is the editorial self-serving?
Alright, Ruddsters, righto’s and other crazys…time for the mogadon and to bed for you!