Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Galaxy follows up Saturday’s state poll with federal voting intention results for Queensland, painting the usual grim picture for Labor.

GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.

There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,883 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Confessions, I think you have that the wrong way around – Faulkner is saying the threshold should be lowered to $1000, and he is criticising the government for settling for $5000.

  5. confessions

    [If not, then why resort to personal abuse of other commenters who simply express their opinion to the contrary?]

    I am surprised you would even utter those words – Pot-Kettle comes to mind.

  6. fess

    [I can see no reason for Faulkner and Melham for that matter to reject the lowering of the threshold for disclosing donations other than, as we saw with the front bench resignations of M’arn and Crean, it’s the old has-been guard bucking the new generation trying to move the party with the times.]

    Are you saying you can see no reason Gillard and Dreyfus rejected the lowering to $1000 and went for $5000 instead?

  7. [William

    Julia Gillard is a fan of the TV series Game of Thrones. Her favourite character is Calisi.]

    I gather from your spelling of “Calisi” that you are not on board.

    As always in such circumstances, I am reminded of Malcolm Tucker.

    [Tucker: This is a perfect opportunity to show just how clued-up you are, actually. Hughey Abbot, the in-touch guy! You’re on the ball. You know the price for a pint of milk. You love HBO imports, VH1, Pixar. You dig the Streets.

    Abbott: Yeah, yeah, yeah, they’re all great.

    Malcolm Tucker: You’ve got absolutely no fucking idea what I’m talking about, do you?

    Hugh Abbott: Yes, I do.

    Malcolm Tucker: Who’s the only gay in the village?

    Hugh Abbott: Eddie Grundy? I dunno… No, he has children. Mind you, alot of them do these days! Ben at the Foreign Office…

    Malcolm Tucker: What’s a chav?

    Hugh Abbott: Ch… erm…

    Malcolm Tucker: Hugh, what is a chav?

    Oliver Reeder: Come on, you must know this!

    Glenn Cullen: Chav!

    Malcolm Tucker: Chav!

    Hugh Abbott: Just saying “chav” isn’t really helpful!

    Malcolm Tucker: This is important stuff, Hugh! Right, we do a weekly digest for the Prime Minister, we boil down the week’s television, cinema, music, so on.

    Oliver Reeder: The Zeitgeist tapes.

    Malcolm Tucker: Exactly, the Zeitgest tapes. EastEnders highlights, choice bits from all the reality shows, 10 seconds music videos, that kind of thing.

    Hugh Abbott: That’s why the PM always looks so clued-up! I always thought he was genuinely quite with it.

    Malcolm Tucker: No, no, he’s as bad as you, he uses phrases like “with it” as well.]

  9. [Federal Independent MP Tony Windsor believes mining magnate Gina Rinehart could bankroll the campaign of his main opponent ahead of the upcoming coming national election.

    Mr Windsor faces a tight race for his seat of New England, in northern NSW, against National Party Queensland senator Barnaby Joyce, who is attempting to move to the lower house.

    The independent told parliament on Tuesday there were rumours swirling in his electorate that Ms Rinehart planned to donate up to $700,000 to Senator Joyce’s campaign.]

    IIRC wasn’t Barnaby one of Rinehart’s personal guests on a flight to India for a wedding or something?

  10. William

    [I gather from your spelling of “Calisi” that you are not on board.
    ]

    You gather correctly. I wondered if it was Calici but that is a virus and I thought that was unlikely.

  11. [Faulkner is saying the threshold should be lowered to $1000, and he is criticising the government for settling for $5000.]

    Excellent. Then he and I are both on the same page, although the reporting of the matter is still somewhat ambiguous.

  12. [Are you saying you can see no reason Gillard and Dreyfus rejected the lowering to $1000 and went for $5000 instead?]

    You get the legislation through parliament that you can get through. Of course my preference is that all donations are publicly disclosed. But if this won’t pass the current parliament then it won’t pass the current parliament.

    Instead we get a non-indexed threshold at $5000 rather than an indexed threshold at $12,000. Isn’t this better?

  13. Isn’t Game of Thrones some activity where silly old bludgers sit on the dunny farting and passing motions while pontificating loud and long?

    Or is that Parliament?

  14. Faulkner should be happy that all 24 recommendations of the committee will pass. And that an un-indexed 5 grand is better than the bills not passing at all.

  15. confessions

    [IIRC wasn’t Barnaby one of Rinehart’s personal guests on a flight to India for a wedding or something?]
    Darn rootin’ tootin’ Barnyard was.

    [Gina Rinehart flew MPs to India for lavish wedding

    BILLIONAIRE mining magnate Gina Rinehart flew Coalition MPs, including the Liberal Party’s deputy leader Julie Bishop and Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce, to take part in a sumptuous three day-wedding of a prominent Indian industrialist in Hyderabad.

    Ms Rinehart took the Canberra delegation by private jet to a Reddy family wedding earlier this week. The Reddy family company, infrastructure behemoth GVK, is seeking a controlling stake in coal mines owned by the Hancock group.

    Reports suggest the transaction could be worth more than $2 billion.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/gina-rinehart-flew-mps-to-india-for-lavish-wedding-20110616-1g5zf.html#ixzz2UZrBsH00

  18. mari:

    If you’re around, Chris Hadfield didn’t do a photo of the day today – he posted that he’s travelling, and so no Facebook activity for a bit.

    One day and I already have withdrawal symptoms!

  19. [Darn rootin’ tootin’ Barnyard was.]

    He also wrote an unsolicited letter to Gina’s kids telling them to stop being nasty to their mum. He mentioned in the letter he is a millionaire.

  20. [Faulkner should be happy that all 24 recommendations of the committee will pass. And that an un-indexed 5 grand is better than the bills not passing at all.]

    With some people it’s all or nothing. Sadly, these people would appear to prefer being in opposition where they can be pure rather than in government where they may have to be pragmatic, but at least get to achieve something.

  21. [I thought the Indies supported cutting to $1000 and the legislation would pass.]

    The Greens want curbs on corporate donations, even though they received the largest corporate donation on record.

    It would not have passed the Senate.

    Plus missed in all the hype, parties get $2.47 per vote already.

  22. Didn’t think I’d ever agree with a DLPer.

    [Former Caucus chair Daryl Melham said it was “wrong” and difficult to justify political parties giving themselves a huge increase after making savage Budget cuts.

    Democratic Labor Party senator John Madigan said politicians were “the dregs of the Earth” who cut money for single mothers and universities and complained about debt, but then gave themselves more money out of the public purse.

    “They’re laughing in their party rooms and it shows the contempt they have for ordinary people struggling with their everyday expenses and bills,” he told the Herald Sun.

    “This place is rotten to the core. I’d like to see it implode. There’s no empathy, no compassion. They are so disconnected from the people. It’s just sickening, this place.

    “They wonder why people hate their bloody guts and we have a high informal vote. I’ve run over better rabbits than these people.”

    Country independent Rob Oakeshott said voters should be angry.]

  25. [1661
    confessions
    Posted Tuesday, May 28, 2013 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    Faulkner is saying the threshold should be lowered to $1000, and he is criticising the government for settling for $5000.

    Excellent. Then he and I are both on the same page, although the reporting of the matter is still somewhat ambiguous.]

    Number one rule of negotiation is that you seldom get exactly what you want – if you could readily do that, you wouldn’t need to negotiate
    Number two is to be prepared to give up something in order to get most of what you want – so start high and bargain down
    Number three is that it is better to settle with the things you most want than not to settle at all – not to settle is self-defeating
    Number four rule is don’t whinge about the result afterwards – it’s too late and you turn an acceptable result into a defeat

  28. [“The quality of our democracy, the quality of public policy, depends on people in parliaments making decisions on the merits of the case not according to the corporate donations,” Greens leader Christine Milne told reporters in Canberra.]

    I think Ms Milne should shut up.

    [The Greens say securing the largest single private donation ever made to a political party in Australia helped bankroll a major advertising campaign in the lead-up to the last election.

    The Greens have confirmed they received $1.6 million from the founder of the Wotif online travel website, Graeme Wood, before the federal election.]

    Gunna give the money back?

  29. briefly:

    Absolutely spot on. A shame that some can’t see it. I blame the dominance of majority government at the federal level.

  30. “@KarenMMiddleton: RT @OakeyMP: A Confidence motion has been selected for debate next Mon seeking the full support of Hse of Reps in Depts of Treasury & Fin”

  33. Robert Oakeshott MP ‏@OakeyMP 3m

    A Confidence motion has been selected for debate next Monday seeking the full support of the House of Reps in Depts of Treasury and Finance

  34. Robert Oakeshott MP ‏@OakeyMP 2m

    For those wondering,I am sick of MP’s picking on scientists,+ public servants who aren’t in a position to defend themselves.

  35. Sorry if I don’t quite understand this. R. Oakeshott will call a motion for confidence in the treasury, why? Is this to call out Hockey on his allegation that Swan cooked the books?

  40. I do hope Gina does stump up a huge amount for Joyce’s campaign.

    The head exploding on the Left wil be a sight to behold.

    We’ll be able to point and laugh at the Greens when they get all sanctimonious – again.

    And it’s tax deductible.

  44. Perhaps they could play some vision of Senate Estimates Committees from when the ALP were in opposition – because they are always so respectful of public servants, you know.

  46. [1693
    Compact Crank
    Posted Tuesday, May 28, 2013 at 7:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Is anyone going to miss Jokeshot when he’s gone?]

    There will be lots of people to miss after the coming election. Gillard will have a large following going out the doors of Parliament House.

  47. [Senator Madigan should get out of politics for his own well-being]

    I don’t think he ever expected to be there in the first place, so it shouldn’t surprise that he’s unhinging a little now that he’s expected to stump up.

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