Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Galaxy follows up Saturday’s state poll with federal voting intention results for Queensland, painting the usual grim picture for Labor.

GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.

There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,883 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. and now for some real good news

    Tony Abbott claims he will leave the country if he loses the election
    If I don’t win this election I’ll have to leave the country.

    Source: Adelaide Now – February 1, 2013

  2. Tony Abbott and the surplus – Lateline September, 2008
    Really, it is not absolutely essential for economic responsibility to have a $22 billion surplus. That surplus belongs to the people. And other than a modest margin for prudence, it should be given back to the people, either by way of tax cuts or judicious spending increase and that’s what we’re proposing.

    Source: http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/InterviewTranscripts/tabid/85/ar

  3. mickWrong

    Those things exist in Syria and Lebanon an Egypt.

    There is no legitimate reason for the Israel blockade.

  4. {Mr Abbott said the Coalition believed climate change should be dealt with by direct action – through more trees, better soils, smarter technology – and that this would reduce domestic emissions by 5 per cent by 2020]

    It won’t but Abbott was smoked out to say it. Funny that many don’t believe him.

  5. Tony Abbott and making departures from principle – it’s okay to break promises.
    In an interview in March, 2010, Tony Abbott was asked a question about his broken promise of no new taxes. Tony Abbott replies:

    But sometimes, for very important reasons, for very good reasons, you have to make departures from principle.

    Source: Tony Abbott Interview – March, 2010

  6. Could Labor and the Undies in their desperation delay the election until early 2014?

    Oakeshott and Windsor know the writing is on the wall for them post NSW by-election wipeout…

  7. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Tuesday, May 28, 2013 at 6:04 pm | PERMALINK
    “The Government ought to be judged by how well it meets its legitimate objectives”

    You be the Judge.]

    AussieAchmed.

    You make a very strong point….. I would vote Kevin again in a heart beat and your post shows how good he was. God Kevin did a lot in a short time before Gillard took over and Labor hit the go slow.

  8. The independents should continue to taunt Abbott being such a coward for not going ahead with his no confidence motion

    if he does call one Windsor particular will eat Abbott alive in the debate

  9. I have this game I play in idle moments.

    I read posts, but don’t look atthe poster.

    So far on “Sean Tisme” I have a “100% accurate” record.

    It’s not the comments that are accurate, it’s the predictability of the talking points.

  10. [if he does call one Windsor particular will eat Abbott alive in the debate]

    One wonders whether the motion couldn’t be turned into a “No Confidence” vote on the LOTO?

  11. Antony Green set out the last possible election date for this Federal term – 30/11/2013. It’s 3 years from the first sitting date of this Parliament (around end Sept) plus time allowed for issue of writs and minimum time from then to the election date, allowing that the date (by legislation) should be a Saturday.

  12. The transformation of Federal Labor into something that behaves the same way as NSW state Labor is complete:
    [Labor elder statesman Senator John Faulkner told his colleagues he was “ashamed” and the ALP was “diminished and tarnished” by the deal it had done with the Liberals in order to secure agreement on a package that would give political parties more than $50m in extra taxpayer funding.]
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/28/labor-veteran-ashamed-funding-deal

    Now there is just the crushing electoral defeat to go, having lost all pretensions of trying to be worth re-electing. I suppose the $50 million will be handy. A lot of Labor staffers will be unemplloyable after 14 September.

    BTW the new Guardian Oz website is good.

  13. [One wonders whether the motion couldn’t be turned into a “No Confidence” vote on the LOTO?]

    In effect it has to be, if Abbott does not have the confidence of the House, which he doesn’t, then obviously the house has voted No Confidence in the LOTO.

    It was a stunt too far away, even for Abbott. He should be castigated for it, I doubt he will.

  14. Who is lying? Pru Goward? Can’t see Drum.

    [AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious 3m
    Pru keeps lying. Windsor and Oakshott have ALWAYS supported no confidence motions. Will someone tell the truth please #thedrum ]

  15. ruawake
    Posted Tuesday, May 28, 2013 at 6:35 pm | Permalink
    According to AEC Gillard could delay up to Nov 30th 2013

    Yeah Tisme that’s early 2014 in la la land.
    ——————————————————

    He’s worried because that would allow more time to expose Abbotts hypocrisy and lies.

    Too long for Abbott to maintain his “nice” guy deception

  16. Ruawake I was asking a question.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if Gillard delayed up to November 30th, everything else she has promised has ended up being rubbish.

    No carbon tax under the government I lead. We are posting a Budget Surplus in 2012-13, no if’s no buts.

    We will hold an election on September 14th… pinky promise.. yeah right!

  17. 1610
    Meguire Bob
    [The independents should continue to taunt Abbott being such a coward for not going ahead with his no confidence motion

    if he does call one Windsor particular will eat Abbott alive in the debate]

    Liar or a coward? Which is it, Mr Abbott?

  18. Soc

    Agree with you!

    The budget is in deficit with cuts to some services and the politicians can get more undeclared donations.

    Go figure!

  19. mmmm….I was just wondering why the media have made no mention of the bi-partisan support for the vote payment

  20. [Who is lying? Pru Goward? Can’t see Drum.]

    Knowing Pru, she is telling porkies. Windsor has been accused of removing Greiner from office, a charge he denies.

    I don’t think Oakshott has had to vote on Confidence.

    Maybe Pru thinks a suspension of standing orders is a confidence motion, she has only been a press gallery member for a squillion years then a NSW Pollie so of course she is confused.

  21. Tony Abbott and making departures from principle – it’s okay to break promises.
    In an interview in March, 2010, Tony Abbott was asked a question about his broken promise of no new taxes. Tony Abbott replies:

    But sometimes, for very important reasons, for very good reasons, you have to make departures from principle.

    its ok for the Libs but not Labor – just more hypocrisy hey Sean

  22. Or perhaps we should all copy people like SEan and bury our heads in the sand and pretend Abbott never said;

    “No new taxes under a Liberal Govt.”

    Then promptly announces and new tax to pay for PPL a policy that he had previously stated while a Minister under Howard – ‘over this Govt’s dead body”

    And he did not even consult with his Caucus

  23. MTBW

    Do you agree that Dreyfus has done the right thing by limiting money paid to candidates to the amount they can document they actually spent on their election?

    No more allegations of Pauline standing to get 4% and a cheque.

    Or is this pig troughery? Oh and how about the other 23 items in the legislation?

  24. ru,

    MTBW only does bitter confected outrage. As long as it is anti Labor Right, it is OK.

    Proper analysis is beyond her wit.

  25. Evening all.

    What is Faulkner smoking?

    [The Government has decided it wants to lower the threshold for publicly declaring donations from $12,000 to $5,000, although initially it was pushing for the cut-off to be $1,000.

    Senator Faulkner and former caucus chair Daryl Melham told their Labor colleagues in today’s caucus meeting that the party should support the larger cut.]

    Personally I reckon it should be $1,000, or have no threshold at all. This is about greater transparency after all.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-28/labor-electoral-funding-row/4716374

  26. Liar or a coward? Which is it, Mr Abbott?

    Both, together with thug, bully and policy and economic incompetent.

  27. rua

    Unlike you I don’t sit around all day looking for details of legislation. I have other things to do.

    Who exactly to you think will win out of this. It certainly won’t be the ALP.

    If you give an undertaking then you honour it.

    Expediency is not really a value I applaud.

  28. There was talk a bit earlier about AMR Research having the Liberals (by which I think they meant the Coalition) on 38%. This was without allocation of 20% undecided – so if you want to argue the poll had the Coalition on 38%, you equally need to accept that it had Labor on 24%. Also, I believe the poll only targeted voters who live in the capital cities.

  29. God I’m fed up with people like Keane telling us that the press are all hanging around waiting for the inevitable Abbott victory, waiting for Godot he said on the Drum tonight. Well, I’m no authority on Beckett but I seem to recall Godot never shows. A bit like the no confidence motion.

  30. The old threshold was indexed, it had already increased from 10,000 to over 12,000.

    The new 5,000 figure is not indexed, it will lose value over time.

    MTBW, maybe you should actually have some knowledge about legislation before you decide to bag it?

  31. AA, that was before the last election.

    Abbott will have a mandate to introduce new taxes after the next election

  32. I can see no reason for Faulkner and Melham for that matter to reject the lowering of the threshold for disclosing donations other than, as we saw with the front bench resignations of M’arn and Crean, it’s the old has-been guard bucking the new generation trying to move the party with the times.

  33. [Maybe Pru thinks a suspension of standing orders is a confidence motion, ]

    Probably, she has never struck me as the sharpest knife in the drawer. Windsor and Oakshott have i think gone on record that they will always vote for continued debate. So, while they may well vote for an SSO to allow debate on a motion, they wont necessarily support the motion its self.

    Would love to see the debate (and Windsor in particular) if a no confidence motion is proposed. 🙂 Aboot and his Wabble would get flayed.

  34. Abbott’s PPL scheme – a great big new tax on everything. Well, like Carbon Pricing it is an additional expense to be incurred by a group of businesses which they will pass on, so in Abbott’s terms the label fits. But reducing Carbon emissions is something we have to do. Providing 6 months off at full pay for Corporate executives is something we could consider after we’ve fixed all the other problems like unemployment, disability support, education outcomes, indigenous disadvantagand our proportionate contribution to addressing Climate Change.

  35. May 9 Abbott promises to call a No Confidence motion in the next two weeks. May 29
    [Abbott too ‘frightened’ to call no confidence in government]

    .
    I dedicate this song to Brave Sir Abbott.
    [ Brave Anthony Abbott ran away.
    Bravely ran away away.
    When danger reared it’s ugly head, He bravely turned his tail and fled.
    Yes, brave Anthony Abbott turned about.And gallantly he chickened out.
    ****Bravely**** taking to his feet, He beat a very brave retreat.
    Bravest of the braaaave, Anthony Abbott!]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZwuTo7zKM8

  36. Anyone heard of of iview polls being here?

    Just had a call wanting 18-24 year old for a 20 min election interview.

  37. MTBW:

    Do you agree with Faulkner that the donations threshold should not be lowered?

    If so, then why?

    If not, then why resort to personal abuse of other commenters who simply express their opinion to the contrary?

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