Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Galaxy follows up Saturday’s state poll with federal voting intention results for Queensland, painting the usual grim picture for Labor.

GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.

There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,883 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [ but, really, she should step aside to avoid the ultimate humiliation.]

    if Gillard was to run away now, that would be the ultimate in Abbott victories.

    Gillard is locked in until the election and that was the hard fought outcome by Team Gillard which destroyed Rudd in the prosecution of this outcome. Gillard must now face the voters on the 14 Sep 2013 and take whatever wrath is surved up

  2. Honestly no wonder Australia is going to be a laughing stock around the world

    The wanna be deputy prime minister doesnt have a clue where people live

  3. rummel
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 7:52 am | PERMALINK
    Gillard must now face the voters on the 14 Sep 2013 and take whatever wrath is surved ——————-\

    which is likely to be another term of government ,

  4. I heard this morning that Abbott is still claiming he will put a no confidence motion up

    The question is on what is the reason

    1- Abbott and his cronies support labor’s policies and budget

    2- Abbott and his cronies offer no alternative

  5. Hockey says ”we must return to stable, predictable and honest government to Australia”. Well, if he can magically make the economy more stable and predictable, good luck to him. As for restoring honesty, it would be a good thing. But by using such a weak excuse to keep the electorate in the dark about his plans until the last moment, he’s not off to a good start. The next honesty test will be whether his costings are checked by the Parliamentary Budget Office or by some back-street accountant who has certified only that the arithmetic’s OK.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/hockey-fails-his-own-honesty-test-20130526-2n54o.html#ixzz2URFOGdTz

  6. Wow, Conroy looks like hell this morning. Another tough week for Labor coming up as well, but the silver lining is they only have four weeks left to go.

  7. [which is likely to be another term of government ]

    Bob, you are not well are you!.

    you added in ‘likely’ to the above prediction which shows some wavering is going on behind the old Meguire Bob… not like you at all 🙁

  8. This result approximates 4 seats for the ALP in the whle of Qld….3 of which would be on a knife edge!

    No doubt everyone knows which Qld seat would be safe for ALP based on this result?

    On behalf of the Liberal Party, a big THANKS for the hubris of sticking with Gillard!

  9. Bad news for news ltd/abbott coalition , this will test the media

    http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/article/2013/may/26/Fact-checking-arrives-on-Australian-television/

    The nation’s leading TV news network, Channel Seven, will deliver political fact-checking into the homes of millions of Australians after signing an historic deal with PolitiFact Australia.

    PolitiFact’s Truth-O-Meter ratings will be used by the broadcaster in the lead-up to September’s federal election.

    Channel Seven is the first national news network to bring fact-checking into Australian homes.

  10. If Meguire thought the ALP would win Northern Tablelands (currently on 70% counted!), a less certain “likely” Gillard win translates to an ALP Primary of about 8%.

    LOL 🙂

  11. …let me try that again!

    If Meguire thought the ALP would win Northern Tablelands (currently on <10% vote after 70% counted!), then a less certain “likely” Gillard win translates to an ALP Primary of about 8%.

    LOL 🙂

  12. [Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 8:13 am | PERMALINK
    If Meguire thought the ALP would win Northern Tablelands (currently on 70% counted!), a less certain “likely” Gillard win translates to an ALP Primary of about 8%.

    LOL ]

    Its the vibe that counts 🙂

  13. Mod Lib

    according to barnaby joyce there 20 million people on the cost line of nsw and victoria

    so QLD , w.a, s.a , tas , nt. act will not make any difference

  14. THE nation’s four major banks are increasingly hostile to the Coalition’s $4.3 billion paid parental leave scheme, warning that shareholders and customers will ultimately pay for the $400 million-plus cost to the industry.
    A senior banker said the Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank were each facing an annual charge of $80m-$115m, based on Tony Abbott’s plan to fund the scheme with a 1.5 per cent levy on companies with taxable incomes above $5m.
    ——————————————————

    So here comes the interest rate rise around 0.5% transaction fess etc all to rise.

    So much for Abbotts claim “no household will be worse off”
    What a joke Abbott is…economic monnow (apologies to minnows)

    Households and small business will suffer under an Abbott Govt

  15. Another policy free week from Abbott and co coming up I guess. Honestly they have nothing.
    Only the stupid would vote for them.

  16. Mod Lib

    Why is Barnaby Joyce even bothering in

    new england which isnt on the coast line , its meaningless

    because nearly all of Australia are on nsw and victoria coastline

  17. [Henry
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 8:18 am | PERMALINK
    Another policy free week from Abbott and co coming up I guess. Honestly they have nothing.
    Only the stupid would vote for them.]

    A shame for Labor that there is a surplus of stupid…. they really need to make voting paired to holding a university degree and Labor membership (two votes if you have a art degree)

  18. Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 8:20 am | PERMALINK
    Meguire:

    Honestly, your ravings are now scaring me….

    ———————————

    Well thats what Barnaby Joyce said on saturday

    There are 20 million Australians on nsw and victoria coastline

  19. [Only the stupid would vote for them.]

    This is why the ALP are not good at winning folk over in campaigns!

    Keep it up guys, this is a priceless Lib opportunity coming up soon, your hubris is priceless!

  20. Oh look here are stupids other half – mod lib and rummel!
    we don’t need to win over dunces like you guys.

  21. Morning all.

    Can’t see the Guardian Australia having much of an impact seeing as it’s employed many of the current press gallery groupthinkers.

    It’ll just be business as usual under a different name.

  22. Morning All

    Disappointing start from the Guardian Australia – the election is still months away and they are already on about if Julia will stay an MP after she loses. Unbelievable

    Will be interesting to see when the media, bookies and sporting bodies start to push back re the bans on advertising – there is a lot of money in play

    Just a quick visit today, off to work – have a great day all

  23. [Disappointing start from the Guardian Australia]

    Oh, it only took thirty seconds. Looks like I was wrong.

  24. wimble

    Guardian Australia interviews PMJG for launch.

    No sign of false equivalency by interviewing Abbott as well.

    So yes an improvement on other media outlets in that regard

  25. guytaur
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 8:44 am | Permalink
    @daveyk317: ” the Lieberals are using the tools of hate, anger, abuse, & racism to help them get elected.” http://t.co/OsAErnYgYL

    Will be interesting to see LNP response to this
    ———————————————————–

    I wonder if anyone will ever do an article on how much the Liberals with all their hate rhetoric and condemnation of one of the best economies in developed countries actually damaged business confidence

  26. This is a bad poll for Labor but a very good poll for climate eaters and nature haters.

    I see that the crowing hubrists are out in force – ML, R, ST and BT.

    Why not, I suppose. Some, perhaps many, Laborites were hubristic during the glory days five years ago. I dread to remember some of the things I posted then. But the memory is kind.

    What goes round comes round.

  27. Bludgers I don’t mean to be rude, but you do realise that the things you say here about Tony Abbott are far more disgusting, hateful and abusive than anything which gets said about Julia Gillard, don’t you?

    The funny thing about it is that you probably honestly believe that it is okay because in your minds the things about Tony Abbott are true.

    You have reached a state of bias and delusion of such magnitude that you no longer even understand how deranged and out of touch with reality you have become.

  28. [Why not, I suppose. Some, perhaps many, Laborites were hubristic during the glory days five years ago. I dread to remember some of the things I posted then. But the memory is kind.]

    Boerwar

    Its best not to remember those good old days, they were Kevin Rudd days.

  29. BT

    Read the article. Its not about comments by Bludgers. Its about comments by the LNP Parliamentary Members.

  30. I see that Cormann or Cory, I mix them up, has asked on his website for readers to say whether or not they would like to see muslim immigration stopped.

    There has been the predictable venting of racism, sectarian hatred and general bile from his followers. Quel surprise, eh, Matthias?

    Here’s another idea for Matthias or Cory: ask your readers whether they would like to see immigration from Belgium and Germany stop. You like stirring up hate and xenophobia? You would get some responses that might just give you pause for thought.

  31. [This is a bad poll for Labor]

    It’s an improvement on the last federal Qld poll. Not by much, but still an improvement.

  32. [A young indigenous employment advisor who was crowned Miss NAIDOC Perth at the weekend says a lack of education opportunities and drug and alcohol issues are the biggest problems holding young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people back in WA.

    Maree Ansey, a 25-year-old Yawuru, Kurrijurri and Torres Strait Islander woman from Broome, was awarded the title at a ceremony in Leederville on Saturday night.]

    This is the niece of a friend of mine.

  33. [There are fears more asylum seekers have drowned in a bid to get to Australia after a number of lifejackets washed up on Cocos Island.

    The Australian Federal Police said eight lifejackets were found on the island and officers were working with Customs to find out where they came from.

    Locals believe the jackets were flotsam from a sunken asylum vessel.]

    More drownings. The Liberals and the Greens have a lot to answer for.

  34. r

    ‘Boerwar

    Its best not to remember those good old days, they were Kevin Rudd days.’

    Yep. The glory days when the public finally conttoned onto the fact that Howard was going to cook the planet at Murdoch’s orders.

    Rudd announced that AGW was the greatest moral challenge of our time and then demonstrated he was not up to that challenge.

    Gillard has introduced a systematic response to AGW and will therefore be remembered as the best Australian prime minister of her time when coastal suburban land values collapse in response to erosion, rising saline water tables and increasing extreme weather events along with those nasty storm surges. But by then the climate eaters will have won, and it will be too late.

    Murdoch has lost $25 million a year on ‘The Australian’ to buy back the public. Come September, comes the ROI for Murdoch: gut the NBN, and flog off the ABC and SBS.

    Abbott has promised no nasty surprises. His trouble with this promise is that he can’t control AGW with words and assertions that CO2 is weightless.

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