Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Galaxy follows up Saturday’s state poll with federal voting intention results for Queensland, painting the usual grim picture for Labor.

GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.

There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,883 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  2. Sometimes footy coaches have to lie to their team: “sure you can win, if you believe and try hard enough”, usually spoken as Port face up to Geelong, or something similar. Of course if the coach says “you will need a miracle”, then the team will give up , and a heavy defeat is certain.

    So to in politics. This election is shaping up as the 2007 grand final, with Labor in the role of Port. I respect the brave attempts of pro-Labor pundits here, trying to talk up their chances, and high-lighting the (valid) concerns about Abbott.

    Mathematically though, Gillard has as much chance as Romney did. Labor is certain to lose at least two seats in NSW (Thompson and Oakshott) with a swag more in western Sydney. They need to pick up several in Qld to stay on level terms. This poll is like past ones, but it is still pretty bad. With that sort of 2PP the MOE is not a factor, so this poll says Labor will lose seats in Qld.

    I hope there are some good movies or a decent football game on Sat 14 sept. On these polls Antony Green will be calling the result by 7.30pm on election night.

  3. Kevin Rudd should be reinstated as PM and the entire current cabinet sacked and a fresh team installed.

    You know it makes sense… this is the nuclear option and the only one left for Labor the “Steady as she goes” plan has proven a failure and will see Labor in the wilderness for 10+ years.

    Just trying to help team Labor here with some logic and reality…

  5. socrates…I’m working my way through step 42 or 43 of mourning…I’ve experienced losses before and know that what comes later on is important too, and that preparation is also a refuge.

  6. I’m am more of a reader than a poster however as a manufacturer of products in Aus it is obvious that the current Govt has not made it easier. We have things up our sleeve that will be deployed to attempt to remove the imports from the shop shelves however the current Govt (and what I believe personally a mistake by the RBA) has meant that things are harder than maybe they could have been. Our Entities have reduced debt during the GFC and are looking to spend. So when I say we will see I guess I’m talking about personal experience as well as some other small business that we talk with.

  7. @Sean – I think Labor is looking at either sitting on 13 versus the dealers 10, hoping the dealer will bust, or pulling a card and hoping Rudd is an 8. It’s a tough call.

    I think Abbott sees it this way and is trying his upmost to be nice and positive. The new Tony seems keen to avoid busting the LNP. The blackjack pro I guess would pull another card.

    Also, would the independents who have publicly backed JG in allow it? Would such a move risk a byelection? First question for PM Rudd, will he honour JGs commitment to a 14 Sept election and what would be the public reaction to Labor if he declared he would go later to the polls, as he could?

  8. [53….Sean Tisme]

    Rudd’s greatest error – and he made quite a few – was to place his future in the hands of the LNP at the time the CPRS bills were being debated. Minchin saw, quite correctly, that if he could derail the CPRS, he could upend Rudd. Rudd, foolishly, believed he could rely on Turnbull to deliver.

    Unimaginably, the CPRS bills were transformed from an outright win by Rudd into a humiliating loss. Things never got back on track from that moment on.

    It will be the last time a Labor PM ever trusts the LNP on anything.

  10. @briefly – it’s a bizarre twist isn’t it that we could have had a CPRS in place in 2007 had not the Greens of all people voted Rudd down with the LNP in the Senate. The Greens wanted more and in the end got the Carbon Tax at $23 which is far less than what they wanted and to boot, with the electroral clanger of, “No carbon tax under a government I lead” will most likely ensure such a scheme is canned and no party will ever dare raise it again.

    If Abbott wins, the debate for labor will be to accept it and not oppose the carbon tax repeal or be nailed to a cross by the LNP over opposing their mandate. Not to many votes in promising to keep a pervasive tax you lied about introducing and just voted to eliminate.

  11. So with three months to go i have updated my predictions.

    LNP 99
    ALP 48
    IND 3

    Since my first set of predictions the ALP have gained 4, Libs dropped 1 and moved Wilkie into hold

    Based on looking at the booth results thanks to The Tally Room and just thinking about the issues i can’t see much room for improvement, maybe ten to fifteen seats may move but most seem very set.

  12. [53
    Sean Tisme

    … the “Steady as she goes” plan has proven a failure and will see Labor in the wilderness for 10+ years.]

    Nah. If the LNP win, I give them one term. They will wreck the joint and, as the unemployment rate races past 15%, property drops by 25%, petrol passes $2.50/litre, and the deficit roars past $80 billion, voters will dump the LNP at the very first opportunity.

  14. Sean you are now sounding as silly as those that in 2007 called Kooyong and North Sydney ALP’s new heartland

  15. And they dance around their fires, warmed by the flames destined to consume them. But they are warm now, and Hell can take tomorrow.

    Good night.

  16. Good wishes are always welcomed . Whether we succeed will depend on mine and others competence. What Govt does only makes it easier or more difficult.

  17. zorica @ 60….political gaming over the CPRS was shocking all round. The only winners were the outsiders. The G’s certainly miscalculated. But then, they had been cut off by Rudd and had no insight into his thinking. If they played a less politically predatory game, we would have had a viable CPRS, a stable government and a lot of good policy under the belt.

    The G’s must have been expecting a DD, which would have greatly increased their power. In the end, they now face real problems this year, and the most aggressively anti-Green LNP in memory.

  19. The CPRS will become the great what if.

    Even though there had been some support lost over the Oceanic Viking but the real game changer was that Feb 2010.

    The voters were still happy with the $900, the Liberals were dis unified and the Government had the momentum.

  23. Tom Waterhouse should be so proud 🙂 of his achievements. i could not be more joyous in seeing the end of live odds.

  28. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 6:29 am | PERMALINK
    more hypothetical media biased polls which are as useful as my prediction]

    hahaha

  30. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 6:36 am | PERMALINK
    rummel

    These newsltd polls are worse , at least i went on a vibe when an election was happening]

    oh the vibe 🙂

    do you believe my vibe of eden monaro?

  31. rummel
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 6:40 am | PERMALINK

    do you believe my vibe of eden monaro?

    —————————————

    That labor will win , you could be right

  32. We are heading for newspoll weekend

    and the predictability of newsltd galaxy poll to try to lift the struggling incompetent coalition,after bad weeks

    there would have been no questions asked about the coalition

    But propaganda questions against the government

  33. Apparently the poll was done may 22-23

    again the propaganda from these polls are exposed

    why wait a week

  38. The newsltd galaxy poll

    Newsltd is still trying to push the mantra that the budget week was a failure for labor

    Newsltd/Abbott coalition can not handle things when it does not go the way it wanted

    Labor won the budget week

  39. rummel

    If people thought 2010 news ltd/abbott coalition crying was bad that they didnt win the election was bad

    what we are seeing with these hypothetical polls about labor losing the budget week, when labor didn’t

    I feel the news ltd/abbott coalition crying will be worse after Abbott loses the unlosable election on the 14th september 2013

  40. rummel

    If people thought 2010 news ltd/abbott coalition crying was bad that they didnt win the 2010 election was bad

    what we are seeing with these hypothetical polls about labor losing the budget week, when labor didn’t

    I feel the news ltd/abbott coalition crying will be worse after Abbott loses the unlosable election on the 14th september 2013

  43. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 7:01 am | PERMALINK
    The newsltd galaxy poll

    Newsltd is still trying to push the mantra that the budget week was a failure for labor

    Newsltd/Abbott coalition can not handle things when it does not go the way it wanted

    Labor won the budget week]

    Im worried about you Bob, you have lost your sparkle. My Vibe was that the Liberals won budget week.

  46. [jeffemu
    Posted Monday, May 27, 2013 at 7:40 am | PERMALINK
    Thanks Rummel.

    Any comments on the new Guardian from the punters yet?]

    News24 had a puff piece on it about 10 minutes ago….. the site looks like media as normal to me..

  47. It looks like Kevin will be the last man standing in Queensland.

    Australians are horrible, racist, sexist, stupid people. They crucified Gough the Good and now Julia the First faces an even grislier fate. It’s way past the time when her standing down might have saved the day, but, really, she should step aside to avoid the ultimate humiliation. (“This is a far, far better thing that I do now than I have done before”).

    I fear for my country and my last years here.

  49. Yeah toorak toff

    800 people its all what is in old

    as barnaby joyce said the other day

    there are 20 million people on the coastline from nsw to vic

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