Seat of the week: Denison

Andrew Wilkie provided the biggest surprise of election night 2010 in nabbing the Hobart seat of Denison with scarcely more than a fifth of the primary vote. The contest looks no less complicated this time around.

Covering the greater part of Hobart, Denison produced one of the most significant results of the 2010 election, sending one of five cross-bench members to the first hung parliament since World War II. Andrew Wilkie achieved his win with just 21.2% of the primary vote, giving him a crucial lead over the Greens who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count with a 1.2% lead over Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr.

Like all of the state’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation at all times set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state. It encompasses the western shore of Hobart’s Derwent River and hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore suburbs and the southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by the seat of Franklin. It is one of the strongest electorates in the country for the Greens, who managed to increase their vote slightly from 18.6% to 19.0% despite the formidable competition offered by Wilkie. Booth results show a clear north-south divide in the electorate, with Greens support concentrated around the town centre and its immediate surrounds in the south and Labor continuing to hold sway in the working class northern suburbs.

Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the 1917 split cost them the seat with incumbent William Laird Smith joining Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. The seat was fiercely contested over subsequent decades, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975. The 1983 election saw Tasmania buck the national trend, the Franklin dam issue helping the Liberals return their full complement of five sitting members with increased majorities. Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated by Labor’s Duncan Kerr in 1987, later to return for a long stretch in state parliament (he is the father of Will Hodgman, the state’s Liberal Opposition Leader). The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure in the job, giving him consistent double-digit margins after 1993 (substantially assisted by Greens preferences).

Kerr bowed out in 2010 after a career that included a four-week stint as Attorney-General after the 1993 election when it appeared uncertain that incumbent Michael Lavarch had retained his seat, and a rather longer spell as Keating government Justice Minister. The ensuing Labor preselection kept the seat in the Left faction fold with the endorsement of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson. What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, a former Office of National Assessments officer who came to national attention in 2003 when he resigned in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent in Denison at the 2010 election, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.

Placed in the centre of the maelstrom by his surprise win at the 2010 election, Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority. The Liberals took this seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions his approach to the Liberals had been less than sincere. Wilkie’s deal with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. This met fierce resistance from the powerful clubs industry, and the government retreated from it after Peter Slipper’s move to the Speaker’s chair appeared to free it from dependence on Wilkie’s vote. Wilkie withdraw his formal support for the government in response, but it has never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.

Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Jane Austin, a policy officer with Tasmania’s Mental Health Services, who emerged as the preferred candidate of the still dominant Left. The Greens candidate is Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne. The Liberals are yet to choose a candidate, prompting Labor to claim the party proposes to play dead in order to boost Wilkie. A ReachTEL poll of 644 respondents in mid-2012 had Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote to 28% for the Liberals, 17% for Labor and 14% for the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

816 comments on “Seat of the week: Denison”

Comments Page 13 of 17
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  1. Whitlam…a true giant. He not only changed everything all at once, the impetus he created is still acting in this country.

  2. [How does the Fraser “Huge” debt compare with the current ALP debt?]

    Who cares, how long is a piece of string. The economy grows you know.

    Fraser left the incoming Govt $20 billion in the red.

  3. [596
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

    Liberals?

    Paid of the debt]

    Whitlam left the budget in surplus, unlike his successors, Fraser and Howard, who continued the tradition of Liberal waste, mismanagement, incompetence and over-spending.

  4. You should do the math ruawake, with inflation over 30 years that figure would be truly impressive in today’s dollars!

  5. So I list a long list of Whitlam Govt achievements and you come up with oh I thought you meant what I want it to mean.

    How unusual.

    If you want to talk Howard debt he paid off none, he sold assets that equalled the debt he retired, oh and left $50 billion gross debt as well. (Hockey and Sloane forget this).

  6. [Whitlam left the budget in surplus, unlike his successors, Fraser and Howard, who continued the tradition of Liberal waste, mismanagement, incompetence and over-spending.]

    Actually, the Liberal party has had higher budget surpluses than the ALP in the 40 years from Whitlam to Gillard, so its ALP “waste, mismanagement, incompetence and over-spending” 🙂

  7. Why is our Telecommunication industry a mess?

    John Howard’s policy – how do we get the most money for Telstra.

  8. [ruawake
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 7:48 pm | PERMALINK
    Selective date again, A Liberal trick.]

    Selective date?

    Its the entire dataset presented by the Australian Parliamentary Library. The entire dataset.

  9. [For a younger type on PB, would I be right to put Kevin Rudd up there with Gough Whitlam?]

    Gillard is the closest we have in a social reforming PM. Hawke and Keating did great work in economic and IR reforms.

    Funny there are no Lib PMs on the list.

  10. [For a younger type on PB, would I be right to put Kevin Rudd up there with Gough Whitlam?]

    The current PM is a better analogy.

  11. I don’t know why you call yourself “Mod Lib”.

    You’re a raving, over-sensitive, pouting ratbag.

    I’m thinking of naming a dog after you.

  12. [ruawake
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 7:50 pm | PERMALINK
    For a younger type on PB, would I be right to put Kevin Rudd up there with Gough Whitlam?

    Gillard is the closest we have in a social reforming PM. Hawke and Keating did great work in economic and IR reforms.]

    Gillard?…… Apart from NDIS, all the reforms were started by Kevin Rudd, he was the real reformer and won an election as well.

  13. One thing the Liberals can claim credit for over the years is completely purging their party of so-called moderates and leaving the party at the behest of the extremist and the ignorants.

  14. The ABC show just had Gough going public to complain about the faceless men bullying leaders and trying to impose their will.

    ….sounds just like Rudd to me, nothing like Gillard (she is one of them).

  15. The Parliamentary Library does not include asset sales.

    The money Howard got for Telstra is now less than if the Company had been paying its normal dividend.

    This is but one example. The PBO stated that from 2001 Howard put the budget into structural deficit, it took Wayne Swan to turn this around. That is the data.

  16. rummel:

    The Prime Minister saw them through. The Member for Griffith OTOH was more concerned with his personal polling, and choked at the moment of truth.

  17. [575
    confessions

    What the LNP are saying is they would prefer to dump trillions of dollars of losses on future generations than to take even very modest steps now to stimulate investment in less-polluting technologies.

    I don’t think the Liberal party really knows what it stands for these days. There don’t seem to be any thinkers on that side of politics really making a case for anything substantive or meaningful.]

    confessions, I am quite baffled by the LNP. They declare they are in favour individual rights, but take positions which repress them (SSM); they say they are economically rational, but advocate policies that are quite irrational (ETS); they purport to be in favour of fiscal restraint, but propose to waste money hand over fist (PPL and DAP).

    Only one thing defines them: they hate Labor. Beyond this, they stand for nothing at all. You don’t need to think much if this is your motivation. In fact, too much thinking would probably just cause trouble. Better to think less and disrupt more.

  18. [no, not on your list rua, not on yours!]

    OK who is on your list? If you can lower yourself to answer a question.

    A reforming Lib PM, name one in the last 50 years.

  19. [The Prime Minister saw them through. The Member for Griffith OTOH was more concerned with his personal polling, and choked at the moment of truth.]

    He only choked because Gillard had her hands around his neck.

  20. [….sounds just like R*dd to me]

    Who promised to restore the factional selection of the front bench if his leadership challenge last year was successful.

    R*dd is no Whitlam. R*dd is more like Abbott: says whatever he thinks needs to be said in order to win approval.

  21. [608
    Mod Lib

    Whitlam left the budget in surplus, unlike his successors, Fraser and Howard, who continued the tradition of Liberal waste, mismanagement, incompetence and over-spending.

    Actually, the Liberal party has had higher budget surpluses than the ALP in the 40 years from Whitlam to Gillard, so its ALP “waste, mismanagement, incompetence and over-spending” :)]

    This is misleading. When Gough left office, the budget was in the black and we were running a modest current account surplus. We were positioned for balanced growth at a moderate pace, a reflection of the excellent work of Bill Hayden. This was in spite of the dislocations caused by the spike in oil in 1973 and the gyrations in US inflation and monetary policy in 1974 and 75.

    Fraser and Howard really effectively bungled the economy from the day they were first elected, mismanaged a resources boom (sound familiar) and then, caught in the post-boom recession, lost office, leaving behind them a budget in tatters and an economy in serious trouble.

    The LNP set up and have since perpetuated the series of errors that have left this country in structural deficit ever since 1976. The idea that they are sound managers is a rotten myth.

  22. Howard?

    What did he do? Changed sales tax and cocked up a consumption tax. Hardly a reform.

    Or did you have something else in mind to tell us?

  23. [rummel
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 7:58 pm | PERMALINK
    The Prime Minister saw them through. The Member for Griffith OTOH was more concerned with his personal polling, and choked at the moment of truth.

    He only choked because Gillard had her hands around his neck.]

    The Fellowship/b> awards the Gandalf award to rummel for this classic post! 🙂

    Congratulations, rummel. We understand this is your first Gandalf award!

  24. No rummel, he choked well before the Caucus moved against him, as has been explained here many times before.

    Even Mumble, a well known R*ddite is prepared to admit he was more concerned about his polling to bother with establishing his government’s credentials.

    How different things might have been if he’d been more of a leader and less of a preener. Thank heavens we’ve had Gillard pony up for the hard work. If she hadn’t we may well have seen an Abbott govt for the last 3 years.

  25. And the unicorn award for obfuscation, straw man and goalpost shifting goes to Mod Lib, sorry he wins it every day folks. 😆

  26. briefly:

    those are just opinions.

    The facts are, that over the last 40 years:
    1. The Coalition governments have had bigger surpluses
    2. The Coalition governments have had higher economic growth
    3. The Coalition governments have had higher real wage annual rises
    4. The Coalition governments have had lower inflation
    5. The Coalition governments have had lower interest rates
    6. The Coalition governments have had lower unemployment rates

  27. [616
    confessions

    For a younger type on PB, would I be right to put Kevin Rudd up there with Gough Whitlam?]

    This is preposterous. Gough was driven by confidence to great action. Rudd was gripped doubt and succumbed to inertia.

  28. Howard:

    1. Paid off the ALP debt
    2. Saved us having to pay billions in ALP interest payments
    3. Saved money for the recent economic rains
    4. Fixed the waterfront
    5. Cleaned out Australia of excess guns
    6. Fixed the state revenue problems
    7. Fixed a myriad of tax problems by introducing a GST*
    8. Financial services reforms which helped in the GFC

    *which Keating and Hawke squibbed running for cover when the going got tough.

  29. Mod Lib

    Have you read the PBO report where they adjusted for global economic factors?

    Poor John and Peter do not come out of it so well.

  30. The Member for Griffith will be remembered for the apology to the stolen generations and possibly (but not certainly) the GFC response.

    That’s it.

  31. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 8:10 pm | PERMALINK
    No rummel, he choked well before the Caucus moved against him, as has been explained here many times before.]

    We already know Gillard was choking him for weeks…..she admitted to the speech being written two weeks before she knifed him in the back remember?

  32. No, you had a Wizard award and then lost it on the 26th March but then reachieved that status on the 30th March.

    There is nowhere to go from there (Radagast Wizard)….unless you are mounting a coup to take over the Gandalf White Wizard status……you are not a Gillard-level-loyalist are you?

    I thought you were more honourable than that.

  33. [We already know Gillard was choking him for weeks]

    Oh please. I’m talking months and years, not weeks.

    Btw, I note you have nothing to say about the real Liberal party contribution since the Whitlam era of snuffing all moderates from the party.

    The truth hurts I guess.

  34. [Fixed the state revenue problems]

    This has got to be the biggest joke you have ever posted. have you noticed how the GST was supposed to grow at over 6% except it only did for a couple of years.

    Howard stripped the States of funds, the GST raised less than what was paid in grants previously.

    You really do make up some whoppers.

  35. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 8:16 pm | PERMALINK
    We already know Gillard was choking him for weeks

    Oh please. I’m talking months and years, not weeks.

    Btw, I note you have nothing to say about the real Liberal party contribution since the Whitlam era of snuffing all moderates from the party.]

    Just the other day you admitted to me that the Liberal moderates were courageous (remember you agreed with Elder on that?).

    Now you say they dont exist!

    [The truth hurts I guess.]

    Doesnt it just 🙂

  36. Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

    [ Whitlam left the budget in surplus, unlike his successors, Fraser and Howard, who continued the tradition of Liberal waste, mismanagement, incompetence and over-spending.

    Actually, the Liberal party has had higher budget surpluses than the ALP in the 40 years from Whitlam to Gillard, so its ALP “waste, mismanagement, incompetence and over-spending” 🙂 ]

    Whitlam is the only government full stop to leave the country with a net government surplus (I am not saying that is a good thing), all before and all after have had a net deficit.

    In other words if Liberal talking points actually had meaning, the best government by their measure was the Whitlam gov.

  37. ML @ 636, this is all a partial reading of the data. The facts are that Hawke and Keating restructured the economy, the labour market, financial markets, the budget, Commonwealth-State relations, the tax system, the education system, medical and health funding, created the Super system and restored full employment.

    Howard did very little other than reworking indirect tax and shifting our debts from the public sector (where they were not a problem) to the household sector (where they are a huge problem). Beyond this, he subverted public finance and planted a bomb under national financial stability.

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