Seat of the week: Denison

Andrew Wilkie provided the biggest surprise of election night 2010 in nabbing the Hobart seat of Denison with scarcely more than a fifth of the primary vote. The contest looks no less complicated this time around.

Covering the greater part of Hobart, Denison produced one of the most significant results of the 2010 election, sending one of five cross-bench members to the first hung parliament since World War II. Andrew Wilkie achieved his win with just 21.2% of the primary vote, giving him a crucial lead over the Greens who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count with a 1.2% lead over Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr.

Like all of the state’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation at all times set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state. It encompasses the western shore of Hobart’s Derwent River and hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore suburbs and the southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by the seat of Franklin. It is one of the strongest electorates in the country for the Greens, who managed to increase their vote slightly from 18.6% to 19.0% despite the formidable competition offered by Wilkie. Booth results show a clear north-south divide in the electorate, with Greens support concentrated around the town centre and its immediate surrounds in the south and Labor continuing to hold sway in the working class northern suburbs.

Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the 1917 split cost them the seat with incumbent William Laird Smith joining Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. The seat was fiercely contested over subsequent decades, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975. The 1983 election saw Tasmania buck the national trend, the Franklin dam issue helping the Liberals return their full complement of five sitting members with increased majorities. Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated by Labor’s Duncan Kerr in 1987, later to return for a long stretch in state parliament (he is the father of Will Hodgman, the state’s Liberal Opposition Leader). The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure in the job, giving him consistent double-digit margins after 1993 (substantially assisted by Greens preferences).

Kerr bowed out in 2010 after a career that included a four-week stint as Attorney-General after the 1993 election when it appeared uncertain that incumbent Michael Lavarch had retained his seat, and a rather longer spell as Keating government Justice Minister. The ensuing Labor preselection kept the seat in the Left faction fold with the endorsement of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson. What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, a former Office of National Assessments officer who came to national attention in 2003 when he resigned in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent in Denison at the 2010 election, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.

Placed in the centre of the maelstrom by his surprise win at the 2010 election, Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority. The Liberals took this seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions his approach to the Liberals had been less than sincere. Wilkie’s deal with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. This met fierce resistance from the powerful clubs industry, and the government retreated from it after Peter Slipper’s move to the Speaker’s chair appeared to free it from dependence on Wilkie’s vote. Wilkie withdraw his formal support for the government in response, but it has never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.

Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Jane Austin, a policy officer with Tasmania’s Mental Health Services, who emerged as the preferred candidate of the still dominant Left. The Greens candidate is Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne. The Liberals are yet to choose a candidate, prompting Labor to claim the party proposes to play dead in order to boost Wilkie. A ReachTEL poll of 644 respondents in mid-2012 had Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote to 28% for the Liberals, 17% for Labor and 14% for the Greens.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

816 comments on “Seat of the week: Denison”

Comments Page 12 of 17
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  1. tomorrow

    is the start of the week, which the promised no confidence motion is supposed to be on the notice paper

  2. lizzie
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 6:39 pm | Permalink
    Toff

    My OH is still reliving the disappointment. Says it’s Bruce McAvaney’s fault for cheering on the Crows!!
    —————————————————–

    Blame Juliar – she’s blamed for everything else.

    I’m waiting for some Lib to come up with photos to show she was responsible for the cruxification

  3. Will Abbott or Pyne be man enough to do it or will they do as they do best is run away from all the huff and puff

  4. [Latest QLD ReachTel shows support for the government is holding up reasonably well at around 57/43.]

    How do you work that out? ReachTel reports primary vote on it website, no 2PP at all.

    Probably wise with Katter and others on over 18%

  5. confessions, the value of agricultural production in Australia varies at about $40 billion. It is likely that we could lose 70-80% of this to climate change, or around $30 billion pa. That is, the net present value of future lost production is least $1 trillion in agriculture alone. It could be several times higher than this. The economic case for acting to avert this is completely overwhelming, yet the numbers are never expressed to the public this way.

    What the LNP are saying is they would prefer to dump trillions of dollars on future generations than to take even very modest steps now to stimulate investment in less-polluting technologies.

    It is mind-numbing.

  6. [the cross river rail project – equal support and opposition.]

    I assume people who live outside Brisbane, most Queenslanders, would not be in favour of spending money in Brisbane.

  7. [Julia Gillard ‏@JuliaGillard 1m
    The public have had enough of odds and betting promotions being shoved down their throats while listening to and watching sport. TeamJG]

    Esp Tom Waterhouse. Almost every ad break in the footy yesterday had one of his adverts.

  8. Rua just used the same preference allocations used by the other pollsters. William may come up with a different result but with optional preference in QLD it has less meaning in any case.

  9. ruawake:

    In the election the ALP had 27% of the primary vote and won 7 seats
    In the Reachtel the ALP had 28% of the primary vote

    I don’t think it matters too much what the TPP estimate is, I think the message is pretty clear…

  10. [40%+ approval after all the hard decisions he has had to made is pretty remarkable.]

    I doubt that allowing farmers to clear their trees was a very hard decision.

  11. briefly

    [The economic case for acting to avert this is completely overwhelming, yet the numbers are never expressed to the public this way.]

    Please don’t stop posting. I know it’s unwelcome news, but water dripping on a stone can make a difference – eventually 🙂

  12. Briefly

    I’ve seen your various posts on discounting and how to attack climate change.

    I will come back to you tomorrow but there are a lot of assumptions there. For one, on the losses to wheat in WA. Isn’t there an assumption that the losses will occur continuously into the future (1). Also what evidence is there that the drought is in any way related to the increase in GHG’s into the atmosphere (2).

    This reminds me of the recent drought in the eastern states. People were running around saying this is what we can now expect because of AGW. After the event and some wet years there’s now a realisation that natural variation played a significant part; vis. ENSO & Antarctic Oscillation

    I’m not too familiar with Indian Ocean influences but in this link you can see how variation in the Antarctic Oscillation Index (Air Pressure Anomalies) can affect rainfall in the south west corner of WA. (BTW we holidayed there in March).

    The arithmetic may be fine (you can argue on the discount rate I guess) but the calculations on future losses and how various have related this to mitigation investment I think is very rubbery (cost per tonne of CO2)

    Despite this I’ve said previously that for insurance we should aim to slow down putting green house gases into the atmosphere
    & eventually to stop it completely. I have issues in how this is been done.

  13. Mod Lib did you hear the Qld Treasurer just admitted he lied at the election and cannot fulfil his promise to secure a surplus in his first term.

    Oh and he has a budget to deal with this in two weeks.

    The 5% primary vote loss will look like the good old days. 🙂

  14. reach tell, that phone
    pres

    button with no real person to speak to

    by the time you hear the question , you forget what button to press,

  15. Gauss, of course, the assumption is that a destabilised climate will disrupt and/or prevent agricultural production into the indefinite future. This is a plausible assumption to make.

    It is certainly valid in WA fisheries, where we have seen irrevocable destruction occur due to temperature anomalies that should really be described as completely heretical!

    The point is that even if the losses turn out to be far, far less than this, the economic case – the net cost/return calculations – is incontrovertible. It is many, many times cheaper to install non-polluting power generation plant than to incur the losses to production that will ensue from a destabilised climate.

  16. [ruawake
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 7:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib did you hear the Qld Treasurer just admitted he lied at the election and cannot fulfil his promise to secure a surplus in his first term.]

    So tell me this, do you think Gillard and Swan lied about “delivering their surplus”?

  17. BW:

    [BTW, I am skeptical about the way in which denialist sites abrogate the term ‘skeptical’ for themselves …]

    I suspect you mean arrogate (to) … thus:

    [I am skeptical about the way in which denialist sites arrogate the term ‘skeptical’ to their cause]

    where arrogate means ‘usurp’ or ‘claim without warrant’

    {end usage note}

  18. [What the LNP are saying is they would prefer to dump trillions of dollars on future generations than to take even very modest steps now to stimulate investment in less-polluting technologies.]

    I don’t think the Liberal party really knows what it stands for these days. There don’t seem to be any thinkers on that side of politics really making a case for anything substantive or meaningful.

  19. [So tell me this, do you think Gillard and Swan lied about “delivering their surplus”?]

    Always answer a question with a question eh Mad Lib. 😛

  20. briefly:

    So would I be correct to assume you think Australia having a carbon price of $5 will save this $30 Billion per annum?

  21. rummel

    Lovely!

    I am sure she will bring great joy into the lives of you your wife and your son.

    Ignore BB’s comments I always read your posts and you rarely if ever insult other posters to your credit!

  22. I just think it is hilarious that you are asking me about a Qld treasurer who has just assumed office admitting it will take another year to reach surplus, when you are silent about a 6 year old ALP government that has not reached its target this year, nor next year and more likely than not (as Hockey put it) will NEVER deliver a surplus.

    This particular line of argument is not a strong one for you.

    The line of argument that the ALP did well in the Northern Tablelands byelection aint that crash hot either if you want a clue!!!!

    The line that Reachtel is not such a great poll for the LNP when the ALP vote was 28% is probably looking for someone to do CPR on it as well…..

    I am just trying to be of assistance to you :devil:

  23. rummel

    One of my closest friends is a former neighbour is called Hanne. She is Norwegian so it is spelt differently.

    She is a great friend and a lovely person.

  24. Sean Tisme:

    [Oh yes and may I point out the people from the BoM can’t tell me whether it’s going to rain tomorrow, how can they predict the weather 10 years from now?]

    Classic meme!

    1. The BOM can tell you with great probability of accuracy whether it’s going to rain tomorrow in some place.

    so petitio principii

    2. Nobody is attempting to predict the weather in any place in ten years time. People are predicting the climate which is a qualitatively different thing. Climate is a pattern of events that recurs over time. Weather is a term for events occurring within that system but which may be outliers.

    People have been predicting climate for tens of thousands of years. The survival of humanity and the rise of agriculture depended on it. These days, science can do a lot better than the people of Ancient Egypt because it has access to far better quality data.

    It’s so sad that delusionists raise this persistemtly refuted objection, groundhog day-like, as if they were the first nutters to consider it. One wonders why it doesn’t cross their tiny minds that this may well have crossed the minds of atmospheric physicists.

  25. For the true believers:

    Whitlam the Power and the Passion

    …is on your ABC soon. You can look back at the good old days when ALP folk believed in stuff I guess 🙂

  26. [I am just trying to be of assistance to you ]

    No you are being a pompous prat, something you are good at.

    The Qld Treasurer is having the same problem as every other Treasurer in the Nation.

    Except in Lib land they can make it go away with the wave of a magic wand.

    I realise you cannot comprehend this but I have been saying the ALP position is improving, something I did not expect until the election, but it is true.

    So when you allow yourself to consider that fact how about ending the snide remarks and engaging on policies. Oh that’s right.

  27. rummel:

    Can’t believe you didn’t take the opportunity to name your daughter after Australia’s first woman Prime Minister.

  28. [You can look back at the good old days when ALP folk believed in stuff I guess ]

    Pity the Libs have never been able to do that.

  29. lizzie, the fundamental point about climate change that I think is lost on the public – but which is certainly not lost on the denialists – is that climate change is a social justice issue.

    In any economy, economic changes have uneven consequences. The costs and benefits of change are distributed differently across the population. It follows that climate change – which will impose massive costs on the economy – will result in the uneven distribution of losses.

    Anyone that is already in a vulnerable position in the economy – wage earners, in particular, but also those who rely on the State to promote social and economic equality – will be exposed to carrying a disproportionately higher share of the costs generated by climate change.

    This is practically axiomatic.

    It therefore follows that it is the direct interests of working people – whose children and grandchildren are also likely to be working people – that climate change be arrested as soon as possible and at the least cost possible.

    We know that poverty can become entrenched and self-perpetuating; that inter-generational social mobility can break down. Therefore, we should – we must – act to disrupt or divert forces that would lead to poverty. Climate change is just such a force. It threatens to carry poverty back into our midst. We owe it to ourselves and to those who come after us to do what we can to prevent this.

  30. [577
    Mod Lib

    briefly:

    So would I be correct to assume you think Australia having a carbon price of $5 will save this $30 Billion per annum?]

    ML, being a complete smart-arse, you can assume anything you like. You will most likely be wrong, not that it would make any difference.

  31. [ruawake
    Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 7:23 pm | PERMALINK
    I am just trying to be of assistance to you

    No you are being a pompous prat, something you are good at.]

    Personal insults, no need to respond.

    [The Qld Treasurer is having the same problem as every other Treasurer in the Nation.

    Except in Lib land they can make it go away with the wave of a magic wand.]

    The magic wand appears to be the endless Swan chant “I will do it next time…promise”

    [I realise you cannot comprehend this but I have been saying the ALP position is improving, something I did not expect until the election, but it is true.]

    Yes, I do comprehend it:

    The ALP vote was 27%. The Reachtel has 28%.
    The ALP vote in NT byelection was <10%

    You say the ALP is improving.

    I am laughing.

    See- everyone is happy 🙂

    [So when you allow yourself to consider that fact how about ending the snide remarks and engaging on policies. Oh that’s right.]

    Do you realise the irony of your comments about snide remarks or has it escaped you? :devil:

  32. Whitlam

    Trade Practices Act
    Family Law Court
    Medibank
    Sewering Sydney
    Decentralising the Public Service
    Ending conscription
    Ending full payment for Uni Degrees

    Tried to set up an Australian Resources Company
    Tried to enrich uranium

    Liberals?

  33. AussieAchmed,

    [Its a Liberal Party Think(sic) Tank]

    Is it called this cos it tanks when it tries to think?

  34. [rummel:

    Can’t believe you didn’t take the opportunity to name your daughter after Australia’s first woman Prime Minister.]

    The name Julia is to bogan for an aspirational bogan like myself 🙂

  35. Pre Whitlam

    Menzies lied to the Australian people about Vietnam to get support for a stupid war.

    Post Whitlam

    Fraser adopts ALP policies after canning them for years.

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