The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.
Some further polling nuggets:
• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.
• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.
• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.
I think there is a fair amount of hubris around tonight 🙂
had an interesting chat to day,, with a liberal
who wanted to know what the green army was about,
i said well ask mr abbott,then she ask me’ was it a real army
will they enlist, people, or is it like the boys scouts,,’
‘ could be reservists’ said another
one of the men pipped and said ‘well I reckon its national service.’
‘ The liberal lady said” well whats it for any way,”
the only person not say any thing
then piped up and said” i think its to pick leaves and clean up. ” no i said its to plant trees,
Why said the first person.
=====================================================
so in the end we all decided we had no idea why he wanted a green army and wondered if new either.
I convinced the liberal lady not to vote away her pension.
a good chat was had by all.
.
[Looking at those NT results, I don’t think they have any implications beyond the local. ]
All it proves is Undies on the nose.
Windsor and Oakeshott gone in September.
[a good chat was had by all.]
Now I am really worried. Ruawake says the ALP vote has tripled and mysay is swaying swinging voters left right and centre….
[Ruawake says the ALP vote has tripled…]
It has, a good result for the ALP and a sure sign that NSW is not a graveyard for the ALP.
Keep pretending you know the result in Sept, Mod Lib, not one indicator in the last few weeks has gone your sides way.
Ruawake if Labor polls 10% in NSW I will be happy. 🙂
[It has, a good result for the ALP and a sure sign that NSW is not a graveyard for the ALP.]
An ALP vote of 10% is something to crow about now is it?
I hadn’t realised just how low the Gillard ALP sets its expectations
[Keep pretending you know the result in Sept, Mod Lib, not one indicator in the last few weeks has gone your sides way.]
Not one indicator?
Newspoll 98 seats
Galaxy 87 seats
Neilsen 87 seats
Essential 92 seats
Morgan 92 seats
Kevin aggregate 54.6%
Bludgertrack 54.4%
Marktheballot 55.1%
What indicators are you looking at?
[2131
confessions
The Federal Executive are named so…Hubris, Conceit, Arrogance, Duplicity, Feign, Swindle, Contumely and Trick.
You forgot Insolence. Brandis SC DH aspires to this position on the Executive.]
He would have to win a ballot for that, confessions. There are plenty of contenders.
🙂
[What indicators are you looking at?]
Movements in all indicators are against the L-NP, you know it is true. Just wait until the election campaign. 🙂
we see the only hope for the news ltd/abbott i to campaign as labor
Mod lib
Again when factual election is held
The incumbent will remain when there is a incompetent opposition as we have now
[Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 8:19 pm | PERMALINK
Mod lib
Again when factual election is held]
There appears to be a factual election happening as we speak.
How is your perception of reality holding up against the tide of results?
[ Just wait until the election campaign]
Only 81 days to go!
Mod Lib
There appears to be a factual election happening as we speak.
How is your perception of reality holding up against the tide of results?
———————————
I was going on what the media biased opinion polls do , go on hypotheticals
[Battle Turkeys:
Does it not seem a little too coincidental that leftist progressives and environmentalists have seemingly found a way to get the social/political/economic changes they want not through the usual (and democratic) process of politics, but through an appeal to a higher authority – science.]
Reality has a laft wing bias.
The media biased opinion polls are going to get it wrong on election day
1993 repeat , 2004 repeat
Bill Gates is apparently on Qanda this week.
Assume under ABC balance rules he’ll be paired with a numpty National, or perhaps the Member for Indi.
#ourABC
[Meguire Bob
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 8:18 pm | Permalink
we see the only hope for the news ltd/abbott i to campaign as labor]
Lock Abbott up and keep Credlin sober, they may have a chance.
[Mod lib
Again when factual election is held
The incumbent will remain when there is a incompetent opposition as we have now]
Showing your face a bit early aren’t you? You said it would be an easy Indi/Labor win.
What happened mate? Is reality hitting home yet or are you still off with the pixies?
I like that Abbott is terrified of losing the election, according to todays papers.
He should be, he knows deep down where he lives he is not prime ministerial material and the public are gradually waking up to him.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-global-economy-s-rising-risks-in-2013-by-nouriel-roubini
The world’s most famous bearish economist is again forecasting woe in emerging market economies, including China:
[China has had to rely on another round of monetary, fiscal, and credit stimulus to prop up an unbalanced and unsustainable growth model based on excessive exports and fixed investment, high saving, and low consumption. By the second half of the year, the investment bust in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity will accelerate. And, because the country’s new leadership – which is conservative, gradualist, and consensus-driven – is unlikely to speed up implementation of reforms needed to increase household income and reduce precautionary saving, consumption as a share of GDP will not rise fast enough to compensate. So the risk of a hard landing will rise by the end of this year.
Fourth, many emerging markets – including the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), but also many others – are now experiencing decelerating growth. Their “state capitalism” – a large role for state-owned companies; an even larger role for state-owned banks; resource nationalism; import-substitution industrialization; and financial protectionism and controls on foreign direct investment – is the heart of the problem. Whether they will embrace reforms aimed at boosting the private sector’s role in economic growth remains to be seen…]
my say @ 2157
“I convinced the liberal lady not to vote away her pension.
a good chat was had by all.”
-I love your grass-roots approach, my say. Elections can be won a single vote at a time, and You seem very good at changing people’s minds. All power to You!
Meguire Bob – Will be taking any of your future predictions with a grain a salt. You don’t work in treasury do you ?
The Coalition is keeping the compensation and axing the Carbon Tax.
Why lie to the little old pensioner that evil Tony will be stealing away her pension increases when in fact he’ll be keeping them and cutting her power bills?
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 8:31 pm | PERMALINK
Showing your face a bit early aren’t you? You said it would be an easy Indi/Labor win.
————————————————————————-
as fair as i am concern it will still be the case
[You don’t work in treasury do you ?]
🙂
Meguire:
U R not seriously telling us you think there will be an Indi/Labor win still do you?
taylormade
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 8:41 pm | PERMALINK
Meguire Bob – Will be taking any of your future predictions with a grain a salt. You don’t work in treasury do you ?
—————
Take note be wary of the hypothetical media biased opinion polls
Meguire:
U R not seriously telling us you think there will be an Indi/Labor win still do you?
——————————————————-
in the federal election of new england and the general election labor for government
The coalition is also stealing pensioners twice yearly supplementary benefit, worth about $400 a year.
That resonates. Yet again the coalition stealing from the poor.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-emerging-countries-in-2013-and-beyond-by-jim-o-neill
This bloke is so good. He’s resigned from Goldman Sachs. We should hire him to advise on the remodeling of the Australian economy. He is such a clear thinker, and a true internationalist. He knows a lot about China, and a lot about everything else too:
[For the decade that began in 2011, we at Goldman Sachs Asset Management have assumed that China, which accounts for about half of total Growth Eight output (probably $8.3 trillion by the end of 2012), will grow at a 7-8% annual rate in real terms, with inflation around 3%. Unless the renminbi falls in value, this translates into an average nominal increase of at least 10-11% in dollar terms.
China will grow by 7-8% partly because that is what policymakers have decided they want. In late 2009, within a year of their massive policy stimulus in response to the global credit crisis, the Chinese leadership, I believe, decided that 10% annual real growth had outlived its usefulness. Income inequality was rising dramatically, environmental damage was worsening rapidly, and inflation was leading to weak real-income growth for poor households.
Indeed, a key reason for China’s slowdown in 2011-2012 is that officials wanted it. While the real GDP growth rate stated in the 12th Five-Year Plan should not be viewed as a fait accompli, the fact that the Plan’s growth rate was lowered to 7% is a powerful signal of official intent.
Looking ahead, while China’s leadership change is important, the country’s leaders cannot decide things with the freedom that one might think. They become leaders partly through commitment to the agreed plan. A potential leader who deviates too much does not stay in the leadership, as we saw in 2012 with the purge of Bo Xilai.
China’s 7% growth target, while subject to a number of challenges, is based on maintaining private consumption growth of around 8% (while recognizing that exports and investment will not grow as strongly as before), thereby allowing the consumption share of GDP to rise. More focus on innovation and creativity will be accompanied by strong real wage growth, provision of greater rights for urban migrants, and expansion of health care and pensions. If China grows by 7-8% again in 2013, it will be more balanced growth than in 2012.]
briefly
which one of the following two links, regarding Australia’s Debt Clock, is more accurate, do you think?
http://www.debtclock.com.au/
or
http://www.australiandebtclock.com.au/
(scroll down for national debt figures)
or are they both saying the same thing, just differently?
(the rolling figures are almost causing an epileptic fit)
Thx
[The coalition is also stealing pensioners twice yearly supplementary benefit, worth about $400 a year.]
Utter horse shit.
The Coalition are keeping the compensation and axing the carbon tax(aka reducing pensioners power bills)
If Labor need to win using lies and tricking old timers than they really have scraped the bottom of the barrel.
Sean tisme
dont you mean the news ltd/abbott coalition
Toorak Toff
I class Higgins as a Conservative solely because he was a non-labor MP, yes i accept that his views were generally progressive and liberal but that was the standard viewpoint of many Victorian conservatives particularly those that were from metro Melbourne
Okay so the Nats won a seat that they should win.
There are zero federal implications.
Why, because every indicator shows that the Liberals will win between 85-95 seats.
ST – Abbott cannot reduce power bills – he can repeal the carbon price legislation but cannot reduce power bills – that is a corporate decision not Abbotts
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-doha-round-and-the-decline-of-the-world-trade-organization-by-peter-sutherland
In writing about trade, Sutherland reinforces the point that global trade has really failed to get back on its feet since the GFC. The decline in the growth rate of trade has multiplier effects: weak export growth in one country leads to weak import growth in the same country and reciprocal declines in export growth elsewhere, in turn retarding their imports. In this way, decelerated trade transmits and multiplies economic stagnation….something we here might recognise as contributing to the Ford effect.
Perhaps the world economy is adjusting to a much slower rate of growth in trade (and a retreat from export-oriented industrialisation), or perhaps the locus and direction of trade is just shifting away from the industrialised north to the emergent south.
As an economy that is highly dependent on trade (exports exceed 21% of the economy and imports are similar in importance) we really should get a whole lot better at understanding and responding to changes in the trade environment.
@Sean/2183
Considering that power companies already said that will only reduce the price of 10%, can you do the maths on say a $500 dollar power bill then Sean?
briefly
I think many people are starting to accept the new normal although there are still some that seem to think it will return to pre-GFC.
Sure it will one day but not for a good decade or so.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/abbott-defends-1bn-brisbane-gateway-motorway-promise-again/story-e6frgczx-1226648209943
=========================================================
do you know he was talking highways here to
last year from memory
where is all the money coming from,
Sean Tisme
About time you learned to read instead of scraping the bottom of the liberal barrel.
Abbott’s Budget Reply included:
[. . . axing a twice yearly supplement for people on benefits ($300 million) . . .]
Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/17/politics/abbotts-decision-plan-plan-enough#ixzz2UImsJwhy
How much and what is the twice yearly supplement?
[The new Clean Energy Supplement – part of the Household Assistance Package – means single pensioners will receive an extra $350 a year and pensioner couples will receive an extra $530 a year combined to help with their household bills.]
So, in fact, some pensioners (couples) will be losing more than $500 per year.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 9:11 pm | PERMALINK
Okay so the Nats won a seat that they should win.
There are zero federal implications.
————————————
True , butt there are implications locally for me though 🙁
Sean Tisme@2183
You fool.
do some homework before mouthing off.
//www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/03/26/375493_road-toll.htm
lFederal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has promised to deliver a four-lane highway, guaranteeing $400 million towards it if he wins government in September.
======================================================
so has tony promised one for each state.
[2182
Sarah Roberts
briefly
which one of the following two links, regarding Australia’s Debt Clock, is more accurate, do you think?]
Sarah, the second one is more informative, obviously. Of course, they’re not clocks. They’re metres. It would also be very useful if they showed the relationship between the magnitude of debts and the debt service load they imply.
So, for example, the debt service load for households requires about 12% of disposable income. The debt service load for the Commonwealth is much lower. I haven’t checked, but it, but the service load on net Commonwealth debt must be about 1.4% of Commonwealth income. There is obviously a lot lower risk attached to Commonwealth debt than household debt.
so is every capital city getting a new 4 lane highway
so the capital city he was in last week don’t know that he capital city he is in this week gets the same promise
my we want be doing to much about a surplus will we mr abbott
A must read.How to polish a turd.
[In his fine Australian poem Sheep Killer, Ernest G. Moll tells of a rogue sheep dog driven by a destructive secret agenda. While it is under the watchful eye of its owner, it controls its natural instincts and conceals its real intentions. When he trusts it off the chain one night, it runs amok among his flock and creates deadly havoc.
When the carnage is over, the owner reprimands himself that he should have seen all the indications of what would happen if the dog was given its chance. We are given a striking portrait of an animal whose behaviour had betrayed all the warning signs – the shifty ‘glint that sprang/Into his eyes’, the way he stands ‘stiffly’ when under close observation ‘as though he kept/His body back from where his thoughts leapt/Ahead’.
But the owner carelessly ignored all the indicators — with disastrous consequences.
At that stage, it becomes painfully obvious that the animal had cleverly cloaked its actual motives:
‘cunning (had been) the muzzle on desire.’
There are disturbing parallels to be seen in Tony Abbott concealing his dark side in the run up to the September election.]
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/tony-abbott-as-prime-minister/
briefly
Thx for your explanation. Will the meter ever start going backwards? I paid off my credit card debt the other day! 😆
Absolute twaddle @2062 Both McGuire and Demetriou are well known ALP supporters.