BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

A deluge of post-budget polling has slightly improved Labor’s position, and maintained a primary vote surge for “others”.

The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.

Some further polling nuggets:

• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.

• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.

• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,393 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

Comments Page 42 of 48
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  1. [Sean

    Appalling post by you. Grubs have better standards.]

    Hang on idiot… you are calling me a grub because I’m worried that some 13 year old girl will be forced to suicide by what must be unrelenting pressure and hate spree against her?

    I think you’ll find your the grub here. All I am saying is those who want to abuse the girl should think about the consequences…

  2. Poor Water Dwellers.

    [THE Prime Minister is set to take a new, hard line on the promotion of gambling odds during live sports broadcasts, with a ban to be announced within days.]

  3. zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:42 pm | Permalink
    @Aussie/2043

    You can’t have your cake and eat it too!!!
    ———————————————————-

    They try. Gina condemns Unions, workers and Labor Govt as wrecking industry while she is making $600 a minute. Her arguement is that she should be making more but she has the pay workers and taxes

  4. [What has prank calls got to do with the “left”? Is your brain cell on strike for more stimulation?]

    My point was those attacking the girl for her actions, should think about the consequences of their actions.

    Quite simple really. The prank call was simply showing how easy it is to tip someone over the edge… i thought that was pretty obvious to all.

  5. Compact Crank… so you ARE saying that winning polls is the mark of political success, as a collateral to “getting re-elected”.

    What about the bits between elections?

    * Policy
    * Performance
    * Debate
    * Legislation
    * Results

    Irrelevant?

    You have a very narrow view of what being in politics is about.

    Plus, of course, you count your chickens before they are hatched.

    Being ahead in polls, three months before the date of the election, is like being ahead at the turn with four furlongs to go.

    You logic would have had Black Caviar – in a losing position with two furlongs to go in her 25th race – written off as a failure.

  9. Darn
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:44 pm | Permalink
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
    Darn – right

    They condemn Unions but still want the good bits….

    I have never known a non union member to knock back a pay rise or condition that a union has won for them. Freeloaders – that’s what they are. And whinging freeloaders at that.
    ———————————————————-

    Nor have I. As a long term Unionist and former official I have seen plenty of people get into trouble with the employer and want the Union to help…..they quickly join the Union.

  10. Guytaur it’s exactly what I said, maybe you misinterpreted?

    Phone call was enough to send a nurse over the edge.

    The hate campaign against some 13 year old girl can not be good for her mental health.

    All I’m saying is those attacking her need to be very.. very.. careful.

  12. Sean Tisme

    “The left should be very careful how they play out racismgate, very careful indeed:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-29/royal-prank-call-nurse-blamed-australian-djs-report-says/4656622

    How quickly we forget…”

    First of all, in that case it wasn’t the radio hosts’ fault the nurse committed suicide. The nurse played a very, very small part in the prank and was obviously emotionally unstable. What happened could not have been reasonably foreseen by anyone.

    I noted with alarm the nurse had the hide to demand in her suicide note that the radio hosts pay her mortgage! How about staying alive for your kids and paying your own fucking mortgage?!

    Second, it’s not just ‘the left’ who get upset at racism. Is Eddie McGuire a leftie? Demetriou? Give me a ducking break.

  13. [Sean Tisme would rather politicize racism than promote his preferred Abbott policies.]

    People like Sean tisme politicise racism in order to make excuses for racists.

  15. absolutetwaddle,

    Who is doing the most vicious nasty online campaign against this girl at the moment on places like Twitter and Facebook?

    The pressure of national exposure on a 13 year old girl must be unbearable all I’m saying is we shouldn’t have another “how we were supposed to know??” type moment.

    Remember it took the nurse but 1 bad phone call to send her over the edge.

  16. Can someone point me in the direction of the ‘hate campaign’ against this 13-year-old bogan? Thus far the ‘hate campaign’ appears to be posters like Sean Tisme and rummel claiming there is one and leaving it at that.

  17. ST

    We understand that you condemn outright racism for its hate, its bastardry and the destruction it does, as we do. Well done.

    We understand that you, as we do, support the call of Goodes and Demetriou to support the girl in question. Well done, again.

    We also understand that all the rest of your crap is just like all the rest of your crap. It’s crap.

  18. Battle Turkeys:

    [Does it not seem a little too coincidental that leftist progressives and environmentalists have seemingly found a way to get the social/political/economic changes they want not through the usual (and democratic) process of politics, but through an appeal to a higher authority – science.]

    A person with an open mind might begin with Occams’s Razor. Those who view life as intrinsically worthy, inevitably view the protection of the commons, and the integrity of the ecosystem services provided by it to people at large as deserving of protection and as amounting to a binding ethical claim on all who declare for human life.

    If this is so then the fact that the remedy to a problem identified by sound science points to policies that affirm equity is consistent with all such claims composing part of a coherent, ethically robust and evidence-based, science-affirmed paradigm.

    I would say that it is no coincidence that those on the right who at best, show depraved indifference to the integrity of ecosystem services and equally, to the well being of the disadvantaged affirm the paradigm in its negation — that misanthropy and hostility to protection of the environment also form part of a different and altogether malign paradigm.

    That the right presents this as some sort of incipient conspiracy merely shows that their paradigm composes ideas that cannot logically cohabit — here, the integrity of life and the protection of unwarranted privilege. For them, ethics and science simply must be wrong, because it tramples on their appetites.

    Their assertion of conspiracy {“it’s too coincidental“} is merely self-serving cant.

  19. Sean Tisme

    “Who is doing the most vicious nasty online campaign against this girl at the moment on places like Twitter and Facebook?”

    People who are against racism of the left and right? Anti-racism isn’t entirely the left’s domain ya know.

  20. [Darn
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:44 pm | Permalink
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
    Darn – right

    They condemn Unions but still want the good bits….

    I have never known a non union member to knock back a pay rise or condition that a union has won for them. Freeloaders – that’s what they are. And whinging freeloaders at that.
    ———————————————————-

    Nor have I. As a long term Unionist and former official I have seen plenty of people get into trouble with the employer and want the Union to help…..they quickly join the Union.]

    Right on. And if it wasn’t for the union movement Howard would probably have gotten away with the disgrace of Work choices, for which ordinary workers would all be paying very dearly. Some people have very short memories.

  22. [THE Prime Minister is set to take a new, hard line on the promotion of gambling odds during live sports broadcasts, with a ban to be announced within days.]

    Conroy over-ruled yet again.

    This guy certainly has to win the wooden spoon of the Labor Party for most policy failures.

  23. Battle Turkeys

    [ they want not through the usual (and democratic) process of politics, but through an appeal to a higher authority – science.]
    Damn reality and its persistent left wing bias.

  24. Justice Higgins was no conservative; rather, a liberal and a progressive. Still the only non-Labor person to serve in a federal Labor government.

  25. You can always tell the blow-ins from Bolt and Piers blogs because of all their huffing about a so-called ‘left’.

    Like Gerard Henderson, they are all still fighting the Cold War.

  26. Sean

    You are lying regarding Conroy or can expect a visit from ASIO in the near future.

    Cabinet discussions are confidential.

  28. The IPA drones on twitter are frothing about the PM’s announcement on gambling adverts.

    Presumably they were either mute or full of high praise when only a few weeks ago the LOTO made similar remarks.

  30. So how early do the Tory born to rules chaps start training ? Damn early judging by this. One of the questions for 13 y.o’s applying for a scholarship to Eton.

    [1. Twenty-five protesters have been killed by the Army. You are the Prime Minister. Explain why employing the Army against violent protesters was the only option available to you and one which was both necessary and moral.]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/you-want-to-get-an-eton-scholarship-all-you-need-to-do-is-answer-four-not-so-simple-questions-8631484.html\

  31. Abbott could have gone to Gillard and said something like we will go bipartisan on the pokies. Time to act.

    But he was in Gimme the Job or I’ll Wreck the Joint Mode.

    So he helped wreck the joint.

    Pity.

  32. Boerwar:

    Agreed. I watched the WCE-GWS footy game this arvo and at almost every ad break was an ad for that Waterhouse bloke’s betting agency.

  33. [I thought he was pulling the strings. Get your story straight.]

    Conroy thinks he pulls the strings but he always end 20 paces short.

    Remember the media regulation laws? Conroy thought he was top dog then he got a dressing down.

    Or what about the internet censorship filter? Knocked off by the Greens.

    He’d build a gold statue of himself if he could, but he’d be overuled and it would be built with a pile of old horse dung.

  34. Tisme

    Give the brain cell a rest, it will explode in a self induced apoptosis event if you strain it any more. 😛

  35. [Hang on idiot… you are calling me a grub because I’m worried that some 13 year old girl will be forced to suicide by what must be unrelenting pressure and hate spree against her?

    I think you’ll find your the grub here. All I am saying is those who want to abuse the girl should think about the consequences…]

    no Sean you are the grub buddy and you know it.

  37. [Conroy thinks he pulls the strings but he always end 20 paces short.]

    sorry mate – that would be your sides NBN plan which is a fourth rate network for a first world country.

  38. Welcome to the Senate, Barry O’Sullivan – a well credentialed replacement for Barnyard…

    [A SECRETLY taped grilling of an LNP candidate has exposed the climate of fear and intimidation being executed by the party’s bosses ahead of the looming state election.

    The recording of the brutal two-hour interview with former Cairns candidate Paul Freebody, obtained by The Courier-Mail, is an unprecedented insight into how political parties tackle internal problems.

    Colourful LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan, already accused of employing intimidation tactics and holding dirt files on LNP MPs, is heard repeatedly swearing at Mr Freebody, who was dumped in August.

    …

    “We need to work to make the problem go away, not put our knees together, shut our eyes, rock back and forward humming some f … ing nursery rhyme you learnt in Grade One,” Mr O’Sullivan told Mr Freebody.

    At one stage the successful Cairns businessman is told he’s like “lifting a dead body” and later ordered to hold his hands in the air and repeat statements after Mr O’Sullivan like a naughty school boy.

    “You might know car washes, I know about bringing matters to proof and negating the evidence,” the former detective said.

    It ends with Mr O’Sullivan declaring he had heard enough and wanted something to eat.

    “Paul I am done for the day,” he said.

    “I am tired. I am hungry. Have a look at me. You know I haven’t missed too many feeds.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/lnp-boss-swore-at-candidate/story-e6frg6n6-1226172372710

  39. I thought the LNP plan was to hold off on naming a Barnaby replacement until after the election? That way they could just name Barnaby when he loses in NE. I’m sure I saw reporting to that effect at the time Barnaby made his announcement.

    What happened?

  42. Liberal non-NBN damages small business, it imposes a cost on small business.

    For all the talk about small business the Liberals couldn’t give a sh_t

  43. [The LNP in Qld are delighted to get rid of Barnaby.]

    Really? And to think he went to all the trouble of faking that accent and bumblingness only to be stabbed in the back.

  45. Have been out all afternoon and come home to pages of PB, then had a look on Twitter there were 184 interactions for me to look at, seems to be all from one tweet I put on> think I will go to bed and pull the doona up 😀

  50. [2051
    Sean Tisme

    Sean

    Appalling post by you. Grubs have better standards.

    Hang on idiot… you are calling me a grub because I’m worried that some 13 year old girl will be forced to suicide by what must be unrelenting pressure and hate spree against her?

    I think you’ll find your the grub here. All I am saying is those who want to abuse the girl should think about the consequences…]

    No-one here has been dishing out abuse to the 13 yo. Once again, you are making stuff up. What this actually amounts to is yet another dishonest attempt by you to manipulate the reading of this situation for ideologically-inspired reasons. You should be ashamed of yourself.

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