BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

A deluge of post-budget polling has slightly improved Labor’s position, and maintained a primary vote surge for “others”.

The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.

Some further polling nuggets:

• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.

• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.

• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,393 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

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  4. On the car thing with Ford: GMH is also due to announce of the new Commodore.

    The last serious one was called “VE”.

    Will the next be “VD”?

  5. Where does the ABC get them?

    Ashley McGee (a black haired lady) commenting on Ford close down plans said about 5 times that sales of Felkins have been decreasing for a decade.

    And on the same topic, Alicia Barry said that the consumers now have many options in purchasing Imported cars, and that this gives them many options.

  6. CTat1
    Way back in the Chrysler days we started the V-Series of Valiants. The first was the VC (which followed the AP5 and AP6 models). Unsurprisingly, the series ran thus – VC, VE, VF, VG, VH, VJ, VK.

  7. Abbott would link the increase in the price of a pie to the his misnamed carbon “tax”

    Why???

    Because the MSM let him get away with it

  9. All a journo has to do is ask Abbott, why would Ford make an announcement now. They could wait until the election which is a foregone conclusion. After all Abbott said he would abolish Carbon tax

  12. If Abbott was smart he wouldn’t try and link the Ford decision to the CPRS and instead just say the Ford decision justifies his policy to review all vehicle subsidies. I doubt Abbott is smart though.

  13. Reasons for Ford closure according to Nick Dole:

    1) High AUD (a minor reason)

    2) Ford sales here on the nose for years

    3) Ford (US) refusal to give Ford (Aus) access to OS markets.

    These reasons will soon be succinctly summarised by Abbott as “the carbon tax”.

  14. Car models – on a related matter – In WA we started using ‘A’ as the first letter – AA() then to AB() guess what letter never made a showing as the 3rd letter when we got to “AB”??

  15. psyclaw

    Ford went on a downward spiral when they released the Ford AU. It was a disaster that they never recovered from

  16. The basic reason Ford has struggled is that competition can manufacture quality cars in Asia at much cheaper prices than Ford can in Australia. It’s Economics 101.

  17. guytaur @ 97

    Young Nick Dole predicts Abbott will blame Ford closure on the Carbon Tax

    Yep if this is any guide.

    Carbon tax will eat car grants, says industry

    by: Sid Maher
    From: The Australian
    January 12, 2012 12:00AM

    LABOR’S latest grants to the struggling Australian car industry risk being undermined by its own clean energy plans, with millions of dollars of the subsidies to be eaten up by the carbon tax and higher electricity costs associated with the new regime.

    Anger in the industry over the impact of the carbon tax – and the fact that domestic manufacturers will have to absorb the cost while many importers will not – has permeated negotiations as the government has sought commitments from Ford and General Motors Holden to continue their operations in Australia.

    But calculations based on Ford’s previous emissions suggest that, when the $23-a-tonne carbon tax begins on July 1, its maximum bill for direct emissions may be $3.3m over the next four years.

    It could also pay a maximum $19.8m in higher prices as the cost of the carbon tax is passed on by suppliers, particularly electricity providers.

    Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries chief executive Ian Chalmers said that the carbon tax was expected to cost the local manufacturers $50m-$60m over the next four years. He said this would have to be absorbed because many imported cars were not facing a comparable carbon pricing regime.

    Opposition climate action spokesman Greg Hunt said Ford’s potential carbon tax liabilities showed the “senselessness of the government’s policies”.

    What a waste of taxpayers money these subsidies are.

  19. Btw our family is a Ford household, and they have always been very reliable cars. In fact, I have a Ford Laser that Is 16 years old and has never broken down. It is now used as a spare car, and My son has been driving this car whilst his own car is being repaired for body damage.

  20. Ctar

    The size of the bricks makes no practical difference. Brick or any sort of masonry is good in compression (pressing down on the wall), but rubbish in bending (pressing sideways on the wall). With a brick wall it’s the mortar joints that will generally fail in bending.

    What makes a brick wall work against a lateral (wind) load is it’s thickness in relationship to it’s height. A single skin brick wall is stable up to less than a metre really. Boral’s design guide says 0.54m for a single skin wall with no end restraint or top restraint that’s 6 bricks high. Double brick unrestrained is only 1.38 bricks high (16 bricks).

    The Grocon wall looked a lot higher than 1.38m high, had a massive wind catcher bolted to it, and from the small amount of footage I saw didn’t seem to have any restraint build up to support it. It wasn’t a matter of if, but when it was going to come down. Someone has been extremely negligent, the only question is who.

  21. Sprocket 23
    That NBN article from News Weekly is interesting insofar as New Weekly is a publication of the National Civic Council, which is a very socially conservative offshoot of B A Santamaria’s DLP.

    Why is that important? Because it shows that the NBN is the one ALP policy that even the conservatives at heart agree with.

    For a lot more about the NBN with comprehensive links, go to my website savethenbn

  22. Victoria
    But Ford also starved the Aus Company of R anD D $s.

    Note that they persisted with their old dog of a straight six engine for a decade after all other manufacturers had changed to V6s.

    And then they released the AU, a car that steered itself, especially in the wet, and rarely in the direction desired by the driver.

  23. psyclaw

    I know several Ford insiders, and the AU was the catalyst for the demise of Ford in Oz. also most components are now being made in South Africa

  24. Moran got it back to front, IMHO, but I assume he was being polite.

    There is nothing intrinsically wrong with governments cutting programs and cutting the number of public servants and ministers telling public servants what they want them to to. At all. It is democracy in action.

    SOP, really.

    But that is not the problem. The problem is to get ministers to tell the public servants who are left to stop doing some things.

    It is just like the old joke about the Irish farmer and his horse.

    Similarly, announcing that you are going to cut the public service means that you are going to cut goods and services. Announcing one and being coy about the other is, of course, standard Abbott.

    The other issue here is that the reason lots of public servants are gone is because much of the work that used to be done by public servants is now outsourced.

    I leave it to others to comment on whether the outsourcing outcomes are (a) cheaper and/or (b) better.

  27. They have cars that steer themselves today. In fact you can’t be without one if you want to reverse-park, apparently.

    I take it you don’t mean that kind of steering, Psyclaw?

  28. Gauss – Ford could have held out until after the election because if all the “experts” are right Abbott would be elected and repeal the carbon legislation.

    This is not an issue about the carbon price this is more a commercial decision as Ford wre failing well before the carbon price.

    Blaming the carbon price is just a political convenience of the Libs and further proves they have no real idea and rely on slogans and one line rants

  29. [I doubt Abbott is smart though.]

    I dont think you will get much argument on that point. He is rat cunning though and knows he has a compliant MSM to report whatever bullsh$t he deigns to deposit on them. All they need is the headline “Opposition Leader Says………” and it doesn’t actually matter is he’s talking any sense.

  30. imacca

    Abbott is not rat cunning. He buckles under the smallest amount of pressure. He has gotten this far with a compliant media. Simple as that

  31. Abbott would be politically very, very stupid to link the Ford closure to the carbon tax.

    Assume he becomes Prime Minister, assume he succeeds in the Holy Grail of getting rid of the carbon tax, assume that Ford STILL closes in 2016:

    (a) Abbott lied again
    (b) For a change he gets caught out in a lie.
    (c) He has some form of prime ministerial responsibility for the closure of the Ford factory.

  34. Geelong, Victoria: “First and foremost we are not going to hit the motor industry with a carbon tax and the carbon tax is adding $400 to the cost of every car manufactured in Australia.”

    We thought we should check that number. It is exactly $400? And how do you calculate the impact of the carbon price? Can it be calculated?

    The carbon price is often blamed for increasing costs – so much so that consumer groups and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) warn that mentioning this as an excuse to jack up prices must be truthful.

    The car business is highly competitive and there is no suggestion the carbon tax impact has reached the buyer of a new vehicle. However, there is debate on the level of extra costs manufacturers have had to carry.

    Abbott’s office pointed to a May 2011 report by professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), one commissioned by the car industry body, the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, titled ‘Potential impact of a carbon price on the Australian automotive industry’.

    This study was prepared and released before the detail of the carbon price was announced in July 2011. This included the carbon price levels and details of assistance to the car industry, both of which have implications for calculating costs to the industry.

    The report says: “We estimate the vehicle manufacturing industry faces an additional cost, without government assistance for companies in the supply chain, in the order of $222-$412 per vehicle produced.”

    This range covers Abbott’s $400, although he has chosen the high end. When Abbott has previously mentioned the $400, he qualified it by adding the ‘some’ before the dollar figure, a word which adds a degree of approximation.

    The PwC assessment was written when there were unknowns about the carbon price: “As yet, there is uncertainty over the extent or distribution of assistance arrangements under a future carbon price, which would directly affect the size of this cost burden.” Other variations affecting the cost per vehicle are the number and type of vehicle models produced and the extent of local versus overseas parts.

    The 2011 report also said that government assistance to the industry would reduce the carbon price impact on the cost per vehicle to a range of $121 to $215. The mid level of this range is $168, close to a reported $150 per vehicle stated by car industry spokesmen in news reports when the carbon price was announced.

    However, in 2013 industry and experts say they can’t give an assessment of the carbon price costs added to the process of manufacturing a car.

    We spoke to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries which said it had no current estimate to offer but it was considering commissioning an update to the PwC report.

    Ford Australia said: “We don’t provide that level of detail of our production costs.”

    Australian Automotive Intelligence, which provides analysis on the industry, says it is unlikely there is an exact figure. An independent body would be needed to make an assessment because industry players typically don’t share production costs with each other.

    Industry reports (Deloittee, IBISworld) viewed by Politfact Australia don’t mention the carbon price as a factor in the health or otherwise of the automotive industry. Last year was a bumper year for car sales but most point to a squeeze on profit margins on each car sold and increasing market share by imported cars.

    Our Ruling:

    Abbott said: “… the carbon tax is adding $400 to the cost of every car manufactured in Australia.”

    The $400 has been selectively harvested from the high end of the PwC range. And there are no modifying words to indicate this is the upper end or an approximation. The statement also ignores the rest of the PwC report which said industry assistance would reduce the carbon price cost to a range of $121 to $215. Based on the PwC report, the more likely range is less than $400 and closer to $200.

    We rate this claim Mostly False.

    Advertisement

    2013 at 10:01 am

    http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/may/12/tony-abbott/tony-abbott-says-carbon-tax-adds-400-cost-cars-mad/

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  35. poroti

    😆

    I like the idea that Dave is attending to a room at 70 Whitehall rather that what’s gone on.

    ‘Five-eyes’ 😀

  37. Very sad about the demise of Ford. Love my Falcons (as the keen eyed may have picked). And Psyclaw the straight six is no dog. It smokes it’s competition in most respects. In the EcoLPI guise it’s a real winner. Straight or bent though large capacity naturally aspirated engines are on the way out for boosted small capacity and hybrids. The march of progress.

    But all good things come to an end, and fashions have changed away from Falcon and Commodore. AU’s looks were a problem, Imports and SUVs have cut the market and Ford’s marketing has long been rubbish. Shame because it’s still a great reliable and comfortable conveyance.

  38. BK

    Too true. My Laser still looks good. The paint work is still crisp and the engine clicks over first time every time. It is now a spare car, but so reliable. I dont want to put a curse on it, but it has served me very well over the years.
    I know have a Ford focus that was built in Belgium

  42. so I wonder what will happen to the racing teams here

    they did take their v 8 to the usa
    we watched it on Monday night

    direct

  48. AussieAchmed @ 100

    The Carbon Tax is a cost at the margin yes but if you’re standing at the cliff edge it only takes a shove for you to go over the cliff.

    Anyone who believes the imposition of a $23 carbon tax
    hasn’t lead the companies either downsizing or closing down and accelerating the shift of manufacturing
    to overseas is kidding themselves.

    Regarding Tony Abbott he’s playing politics & he will win on the politics of this every day. Having Greg Combet come out with a few expletives will not make any difference to the politics.

  49. ratsak

    [Straight or bent though large capacity naturally aspirated engines are on the way out for boosted small capacity and hybrids. ]

    I be keeping my E500 for a long time: a joy to drive.

  50. “@mattmoran10news: Peter Slipper has arrived at the ACT Magistrates Court and is now waiting for his case to be heard #tennews @channeltennews”

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