Newspoll and Nielsen have both published results this evening, so together with yesterday’s Galaxy the broad outline is as follows (UPDATE: Essential Research and Morgan are now included as well):
• Newspoll is steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (steady), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 31% and down two on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is up one to 37% and up three to 54%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 42-37 to 40-39.
• Nielsen is at 54-46 compared with 57-43 last month, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 32% and the Coalition down five to 44%. Julia Gillard is up three on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 56%, with Tony Abbott down one to 42% and up one to 54%. The two are now level at 46% all on preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 50-42 last time.
• Galaxy has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 34% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, all recording little change on last time.
• Essential Research is unchanged at 55-45, from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up one), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 8% for the Greens (down one).
• The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor steady on 32%, the Coalition down a point to 45.5% and the Greens up half a point to 10%. On both respondent-allocate and previous election preferences, the Coalition lead is down from 56-44 to 55-45.
There’s also a wealth of attitudinal polling concerning the budget and such:
• Nielsen asked if the budget would be “good for Australia”, and got 44% yes and 42% no. Newspoll has 35% believing the budget will be good for the economy (the lowest result since 2000, according to Dennis Shanahan) and 37% believing it will be bad (equal last year, which was the worst result since 1993). Morgan has the budget rated as good by 15%, average by 49% and bad by 29%.
• Nielsen has 15% expecting the budget to make them better off against 52% worse off, while Galaxy has it at 14% and 48% and Essential Research has it at 13% and 36%.
• Newspoll has 41% believing the Coalition could have produced a better budget, and an equal number believing it could not have.
• Abolition of the baby bonus has received strikingly strong support: 68% from Nielsen and 64% from Galaxy, with opposition at 27% and 22%.
• Essential Research shows 20% believing the budget cut spending too much and 34% believing it didn’t cut enough, with 21% opting for the right amount.
• Newspoll has 35% rating Wayne Swan the better treasurer against 39% for Joe Hockey, respectively down two and up one on what I presume to be budget time last year. Similarly, Galaxy has 32% rating Swan “better economic manager” against 36% for Hockey.
• Nielsen asked about constitutional recognition of local government, finding 65% supportive and 18% opposed with little variation between the states. However, I’d be very careful about translating that into likely support at a referendum.
• Essential Research shows 51% believing an Abbott government would “return to WorkChoices”, up three from March, which 26% rate a matter of concern against 15% who do not. Eighty-one per cent of respondents believed workers should be paid more for working outside normal hours.
Is that a “no” then?
I’d also be interested to know why we’re not seeing the same level of negative commentary about the ALP’s asylum seeker policy.
During the Howard era I saw terms like:
inhuman
xenophobia
concentration camps
gulags
cold-hearted
ashamed to be Australian
etc
thrown around like there was no tomorrow.
Why the shrug and brief expression of disappointment followed by the business of usual of criticising anyone even remotely disappointed with Gillard as a “troll”?
Shouldn’t you all be ditching the ALP and heading for the Greens?
Betting since Jul 2011
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2010/bettingMarkets/analysis/historyAlternate.pdf
Nemspy@ 2842…
“Given that almost half the caucus was prepared to vote for Rudd and ditch Gillard,”
The only vote held was in February 2012 & was: 71 Gillard / 31 Rudd…. so how do you get “almost half” out of those figures?
It might not be what you wrote, because what you wrote was an elaborate concoction.
It was, however, what I wrote….and what you used to construct your elaborate concoction.
🙂
Cute
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/cartoons
@Mod Lib/2848
Yes PB is really on alternative universe.
:/
frednk@2819
Thanks Frednk, that made my day!
That is just completely laughable. The LNP cannot make up their minds about anything of substance.
They have no idea at all what to do. On tax…a [post-election white paper and any changes deferred until after another election; on programs generally, they have proposed an “audit”; even their Direct Action Plan is up for grabs after the election.
Far from seeking and “assimilating” expert opinion, they have shown they are incapable of taking advice or acting on it, let alone “taking people into their confidence”.
They are a bunch of fakes.
Has Hockey’s press club address today been linked anywhere?
I hear he was even worse than usual and I could do with the lulz.
Australian pollies are in danger of being left behind on the gay marriage thing. Libs could so easily steal the moral high ground on this one by coming out in support — at least notifying us of the intention to support after the election. The Coalition is, after all, a party that should support the rights of the individual over collectivism.
These are exactly the sorts of questions that were never asked of Gillard.
I reckon its sexism personally… :devil:
It’s pretty obvious the coalitions direct action plan will be junked post election so what does that leave as their only policy?
Abbott’s PPL brainfart, surely the most ludicrous policy ever devised.
It’s so bad only Abbott’s vanity is keeping it from being junked and I still reckon it’s 50/50 whether it goes before the election.
Which will leave them with no policies at all.
Seriously how could anybody vote for them?
@Nemspy/2861
They have never intended support SSM.
Labor has a policy platform since 2011.
All this “Could”, “May” etc…. is just rubbish.
More action less words.
The Coalition PPL policy is the better way to go. Parental leave should be a workplace entitlement and this is the first step to getting there.
It’s a next.
If you want to present yourself as an alleged moderate Liberal, then you need to start making the case that you are.
@Mod Lib/2865
I’m sure you would like that, abit like the Age of Entitlement that Hockey was referring to in London.
Flip the subject.
How unusual.
Funded by a GBNT ML?
Umm no, it’s stupid.
Those libs with half a brain recognise this.
Thats your way of answering a direct question, eh?
LOL 🙂 and to think you were boasting about how you always answer questions (questions I asked you weeks ago!)
Thomson is alleged to have misused around $100,000 in Union funds and Liberal scream blue murder.
Companies who claim they are owed millions of dollars by former billionaire Nathan Tinkler have applied to have his assets frozen.
Billionaire owes millions and doesn’t pay up ..Liberals say….crickets chirping…
HaHa Comedy Gold. They’ll shirk em long and they’ll shirk em early.
Tony Abbott’s philosophising on a theory of experts is bullshit. He’ll consult whatever expert he needs to give him the answer he wants.
*Laughs*
If you think the coalition would hang onto the LOTO PPL if they win govt, then you have totally drunk the Abbott Kool Aid.
Confessions,
I’ve seen Mod Lib speaking out against the Coalition’s AND the ALP’s asylum policy. I’ve seen him speaking in favour of gay marriage.
How are these not, at the very worst, moderate views. Considering these views place him actually in the first case and on average in the second, to the LEFT of the ALP, I don’t think he needs to prove anything to you.
Back from a dinner with some medicos – the grilled salmon was superb – who expressed bewilderment about Julia Gillard’s unpopularity, as they all quite liked her.
The medical profession is a hot bed of socialism, zoomster!
Yes Tone will consult His Excellency George Pell on climate change, same sex marriage, taxation reform etc.
Gorgeous Georgie will give him all the answers he needs.
The Coalition has the runs on the board when it comes to not shirking. Just look at Queensland and Campbell Newman. Remember the tough medicine from Kennett in Victoria? They’ve done/did some unpopular things for, in their view (yes, I know this may not be ALP-rusted-on view) the good of their states.
Now, remind me, who was the party who put the “great moral imperative of our time” onto the backburner?
Mod Lib@2865
With the government conveniently supporting the children of women of calibre more so than others.
2837
CTar1
A champion puncher, I believe.
Thanks, but to clarify, my view is that the term “marriage” should be completely removed from any legislation.
The state should have nothing to do with marriage, whatsoever.
The state should only determine who gets your house, who gets to turn off the ventilator and specific practical questions like that. We should notify the state who we want to make those decisions, who gets the house when we die, and who is dependent on you.
Then you can go off and do whatever ritual with whatever club you like, it has absolutely nothing to do with the state.
Yes. Just look at it.
Which party is actually reducing emissions with a real, working policy nemspy? As opposed to bum fluff direct action nonsense.
Just Me
But he got an MA.
😀
ML speaks out constantly about the govt’s AS policies, but I’m yet to see him/her attack the coalition for their AS policy.
But thanks for commenting. Right about now, ML will decided to discontinue the debate once it becomes too problematic for him/her.
Either way, I don’t care. I’m off to watch TV.
Better for who? Parental leave is not a workplace entitlement, it’s paid for by the taxpayer. Using scarce economic resources to pay for people who don’t need it to do something which they generally either would or wouldn’t have done anyway.
So did that question to confessions have a point?
@Mod Lib,
That’s pretty much my view as well.
Now in return for this moment, tell me how the heck to quote a post in a reply on PB 😉
Chief Executive Sue Morphet saw her pay almost triple to $1.68 million after being promoted from general manager of underwear and hosiery to the company’s top job.
The executives’ combined pay jump – from $7 million to $15 million – also included the salary of former chief executive Paul Moore, as well as a $3 million retirement bonus he was given upon departure.
Ms Morphet’s base salary in 2008 was about half of Mr Moore’s salary.
The group of 13’s combined base salaries, excluding bonuses and incentives, rose from $4.2 million to $5.7 million.
A doubling in salary and other bonuses paid to the company’s top 13 executives between 2007 and 2008.
The company has confirmed it received a Federal Government subsidy worth about $15 million.
In sacking 1850 employees, Ms Morphet was shredding the lives of workers, mainly migrant women who wouldn’t be able to get other jobs, Ms Burrow said.
“Yet she walks away a wealthy women – it’s anger-making.
Liberal scream blue murder about Thomson yet from them when executives treat workers like this and move the compnay off-shore after getting $15m from Govt …crickets
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/unions-to-block-pacific-brands-offshore-move-20090227-8jih.html#ixzz2U1OgtQj8
The square brackets
“Right about now, ML will decided to discontinue the debate once it becomes too problematic for him/her.
Either way, I don’t care. I’m off to watch TV.”
Irony.
Love Tony Abbott’s policies dribbling out:
#CashForCalibre – Peta and JulieB’s mates
#FraudBand – Rupert
#FraudChoices – Rio Tinto
and now #DismemberATO – Big Gina and crew
Everyone’s a winner when Abbott wins
Can you detect a pattern? The policies are the work of Liberal Brains Trust, who know what their financial backers want.
#CashForCalibre
#FraudBand
#FraudChoices
and now #DismemberATO
Let’s discuss Joe Hockey
He’s a bit emotional, isn’t he? Cries in parly about AS, votes agaisnt them. Almost in tears about his cuz, then votes against small business alleviation. Plays babies about his Canberra apartment, and almost dissolves into tears when he charged his leader exorbitant rent to stay in the basement. What a girl.
Speaking of girls, he’s on record (where?) about pay equality. And that’s the reason he agreed with Abbott about PPL. It made sense to him (me wife’s in the ordnance, so I hafta say this) that giving birth (and throwing nappies into landfill while on paternity leave, the only ever minister, except I’m a shadow, to ever do this) that wimmin should have equal pay, therefore they deserve to have six months on equal pay because it’s no holiday having a baby and I should know because I put disposables in a landfill. And I’m an environmentalist, didn’t ya know.
Jeezus, what a dope.
Remember Kitchen Cabinet when he almost dissolved into tears regarding his mother’s cooking ability. Or maybe it was his dad’s.
And how he helped every Sunday lunchtime for the 1000 family members who attended the Lebanese meal.
Except, . . . he couldn’t remember how to do anything. Couldn’t even prepare a salad. I’ve never seen anyone butcher a tomato like good old Hockey.
Didn’t even recognise a good ole Lebo dish like hommus.
But, we weren’t even up to the bbq bit yet. He scorched the pork sausages (how?) and underdid the vegie ones provided by Crabbe.
I don’t think Hockey has anything between his ears.
Nor does Abbott.
Abbott, just like good old tummy-stapled Hocks, has no idea of policy.
He couldn’t espouse a vision if he tried. Well . . . except if he was an aficionado of St Bernadette.
Even then he’d bore you to tears with some story or other about shoulder pain. And then tell you he got the saints mixed up.
There’s something terribly wrong in Coalitionsville.
Nemspy
<blockquote>text</blockquote>
@FarQU/2886
It’s for the rich.
Just like Coalition FTTN NBN policy “those who can afford it – pay for fibre premium”.
The “courageous” question?
The point was just to be hugely entertaining for me to see confessions contorting herself in knots to try to avoid even the slightest suggestion that she might say anything at all, that could be interpreted as a positive comment in relation to any human being in any way anywhere to the right of the political centre :devil:
I find it very amusing, but perhaps that is just me!
So ALP friends have been posting that abbott won’t put up new start and single mums are doing it tough….hellloooo who the hell put them on it in the first place.
Totally disillusioned- a pox on both your houses
On a more serious note, Hockey’s announcement today that an Abbott government was going after the ATO – split it up, burden it with red tape – to stop his “small business”rich mates getting hounded for their dodgy tax dealings, is a further expression of hubris.
This is one way to totally stuff the revenue of the nation.
so some of the 12,000 public servants want be from the ATO because of all the extra red tape Hockey?Abbott are going to impose in direct contradiction of their budget reply promise
At the NPC Hockey again used the argument “women on maternity leave deserve full pay because men get full pay when on annual holiday leave”.
Women also get full pay when on annual holiday leave, and Hockey’s argument is a total non-sequitur fabrication. Yet no one called him out.
Maybe in tomorrow’s rags …………….. ???????
I’ve been hoping for nearly 3 years that the election campaign would hi light the coalition propensity to lie; that some (a few? or one?) journos would call them out when push came to shove.
Is this a pipe dream?
Ignore this test.