Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

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  2. Mysay crap @144

    Yep, Howard is taking credit for the current good economic foundation that he laid out at the feet of Swanny and Kevvie. Without it and the billions of dollars in the bank, Swanny would have been all out of luck when the GFC happened. Throwing dollars into the air and crossing your fingers all will be fine didn’t guarantee anything unless the economy was so strong to start with. So yes, all you ALP drones, climb down from your ivory tower or whatever high horse you have created in your feeble imaginations and realise that Swanny inherited luck, he didn’t create it.

  7. Harry “Snapper” Organs

    ah yes harry great to= see u

    but what do the internall polls show.

    ————————

    have heard a few things latley

  8. u wanker conserves 9that sticky jam by the way]

    I don’t read
    your replies
    I post for people who read here NOT u

  13. AUSTRALIA’S most needless wasteful spending took place under the John Howard-led Coalition government rather than under the Whitlam, Rudd or Gillard Labor governments, a study has found.

    The International Monetary Fund study bills itself as the first to examine 200 years of government financial records across 55 leading economies.

    It identifies only two periods of Australian “fiscal profligacy” in recent years, both during Mr Howard’s term in office – in 2003 at the start of the mining boom and during his final years in office between 2005 and 2007.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australias-most-wasteful-spending-came-in-howard-era-finds-imf-20130110-2cj38.html#ixzz2TAiflYtQ

  14. Katter reckons that there is no difference between Labor and Liberal.

    That’s funny. That is just what the Greens say.

  18. Clive reckons that there is no difference between Liberal and Labor.

    That’s strange. That is exactly what the Greens say.

  21. The $96 billion “Labor debt” inherited by the Howard Government in 1996 comprised $39.9 billion of Fraser Government debt that carried through the Hawke/Keating period meaning that the true level of Labor debt in 1996 was $56 billion. To pay that $56 billion off, the Howard Government sold almost $72 billion of Government assets meaning the move to negative net debt was not really due to any miraculous and bold fiscal settings, but owed everything to a series of asset sales.

  30. My goodness, QANDA- those Queenslanders love Clive Palmer, it’s like there’s a laugh track to everything he says…

  33. Boerwar:

    I am happy to pay you to provide a Clive-Katter-Nicholls interpretation service here.

    They all clearly speak Qlder which I’ve never learned.

  39. -PM praises strong economy

    7078 people have read this article8673-pm-praises-strong-economy
    8673-pm-praises-strong-economy

    http://www.theadviser.com.au/breaking-news/8673-pm-praises-strong-economy

    ==============================================================

    i

    Banner

    Vivienne Kelly

    Former prime minister John Howard believes the Australian economy is in “good shape”, especially in comparison to the rest of the world.

    Speaking at the MFAA conference in Sydney on Friday, Mr Howard said that while many people believe the Australian economy is “running on empty at the moment”, it has actually shown an unexpected resilience.

    Mr Howard said he is optimistic and bullish about the future of the country.

    “When the current prime minister and the treasurer and others tell you that the Australian economy is doing better than most – they are right,” he said.

    “We are still fortunate that we have an unemployment rate with a five in front of it. I wouldn’t have thought that was going to be possible a couple of years ago, and I don’t think many people would have. Our unemployment has remained pleasingly quite low.

    ======================================================

    lets make sure we all take copies of this

    thanks jwh

  42. Larissa Waters talking about ‘our politicians’ have lost their bravery.

    I take it that Senator Waters means us to think that she is not a politician, really, truly, not a politician.

  43. gosh some one must of read my post”
    on the wtte necessary things that need doing
    conservatives don’t do
    see the q and a

    re the tweet

  45. [watchibg 4 corners is very frightening,

    with conservatives gov.. will they change the gun law here.]

    They might… Howard was the one who introduced some of the tightest gun laws in the world, while Labor sat on their hands for years and did nothing.

  46. lost their bravery for ‘

    what I would say JULia is the bravest person I know

    she stand us to conservatives and the media

    =======================

    gee and most of the conserves are not on the blog now

    lol

    sticky jam people

  47. The 96 billion national debt in 1996 was about 25% of GDP – an eminently manageable level. The budget deficit in 1995 – 96 was about 2.5% of GDP. Also manageable. as for current levels, well, what spending will the Coalition cut? What taxes will they raise? What level of unemployment is acceptable?

  50. Sean Tisme

    ‘They might… Howard was the one who introduced some of the tightest gun laws in the world, while Labor sat on their hands for years and did nothing.’

    Napthine allows the shooting of hundreds of endangered ducks. O’Farrell allows shooting in national parks.

    Etc, etc.

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