Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).
The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.
[OMG – a cost over run on a major infrastructure project – well that’s the end of Transurban.]
Hilarious … if only you applied the same kind of sensible standard to the NBN you’d look less silly.
Sean Tisme
How many State and Territory elections in a row did John Howard’s party lose while he was PM?
Hint it is more than 20.
[OMG – a cost over run on a major infrastructure project – well that’s the end of Transurban.]
You’d be livid if it were a Labor government doing that.
CC – re Public Private Partnerships – there have been high profile failures from the point of view of the private partners, e.g. the Cross City Tunnel and the Lane Cove Tunnel (Sydney), although these are two very worthwhile additions to Sydney’s road network. There have been high profile successes from the point of view of private partners (e.g. The Harbour Tunnel). I will admit that I don’t have statistics to prove that the rate of failure is 50%+. But I don’t think these partnerships are the panacea they are made out to be. If they return private profits but take away or limit public infrastructure or future development options then I don’t count that as a success.
So, energy-wise, in WA Labor kept the COL down and the Liberals are going to lift the COL dramatically.
[Hilarious … if only you applied the same kind of sensible standard to the NBN you’d look less silly.]
The disconnect is palpable.
Want tolls vote Liberal, want free roads vote ALP. 🙂
Just posted my very first complaint to the ABC about a particularly egregious interview conducted on NewsRadio Drive about Abbot’s “Little Book of Big Labor Waste” (which is exactly as stupid as you’d expect when you download it and have a glance through, until your stomach gives out). Not that I expect it to make any difference, but after hearing literally hundreds of crappy interviews like it I just snapped.
himi
poroti:
Not sure your link is what it should be for Boris?
[So, energy-wise, in WA Labor kept the COL down and the Liberals are going to lift the COL dramatically.]
Not going to: HAVE. Something like 60+% in costs to consumers from electricity prices alone during the life of the Barnett govt.
[the word clarse should be invented]
Too right.
A friend is the Cripplegate Alderman at the moment.
He has streets on the choose here.
himi@107 – you may as well try & escape a black hole, no one knows what’s on the other side.
Could it be that Barnett is facing a revenue shortfall like every other government in the country?
Heavens to betsy, it is across parties.
For the past six weeks, the Bayesian aggregation of the two-party preferred polling has been bouncing along in a range between 44.0 and 44.6 per cent.
The end point of the Bayesian aggregation currently sits at 44.2 per cent. Like last week, this result would see the Coalition winning around 99 seats and Labor around 48 seats in the House of Representatives.
http://bit.ly/10S0cOt
confessions
[Not sure your link is what it should be for Boris?]
Oh yes it was. That is a pic of The Bullingdon Club a yobbo gang for toffs. Boris is bottom right and Dave Cameron top row second from the left. Perhaps I should have included this pic ? 🙂
Re polls flatlining, as discussed earlier. The polls have been jumping around a bit, although unfortunately not into comfortable / comforting territory for ALP/Left supporters. The Coalition 2PP in recent polls has been in the range 54 to 58 which is consistent with an underlying value of about 56 with a margin of error of 2 to 3. Hopefully the hard heads in the proverbial smoke filled rooms are planning on the basis that they have to turn around at least 5% of the voters in the face of a Liberal – News Limited Coalition disinformation campaign which will ramp up with its response to tomorrow’s budget.
[Boris is bottom right and Dave Cameron top row second from the left.]
I see it now! Cameron looks so ordinary, though. 😀
Joan Evatt is a bit harsh. Court of Appeal hearings are hardly ever covered because they are devoid of facts and evidence and are dedicated to turgid legal argument.
I think these writers are also done a disservice with trivial headlines.
Nice photo though.
[ruawake
Posted Monday, May 13, 2013 at 7:39 pm | PERMALINK
I think it need to be posted on most PB pages.
Mr Howard said he is optimistic and bullish about the future of the country.etc}
I put this link on twitter with a bit of editing “HasHell Frozen Over?”
I really liked this tweet back
ohn H @knarfnamduh 19m
@randlight Yes! But I’ve just turned the furnace up! Yours, Satan. ;-))
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Mari R @randlight 14m
@knarfnamduh With the pitch fork at the ready/
Expand
:devil: emotion of course
[Bushfire@81 – good on you. When I can afford one I’ll be very interested in looking into it for 3D modelling of buildings. The segment I spotted on TV with the guy who created the handgun was a worry though. Or maybe that’s just the media hyping up an extreme application.]
I am starting to use them as a substitute for machined metal parts that require investment in quantity orders to make them affordable.
With your own 3D printer you can make bits and pieces almost to order, for a fraction of the cost and on a Just-In-Time basis.
The 3D printing process I use is the same as the one used by the guy who designed the plastic gun: FDM – Fused Deposition Modelling.
The finish is robust but rough-looking.
Hence I use (relatively) cheap laser-cut plates to face the plastic “filler” parts to make the finished product look like it is all metal. The customers like it that way. I do too, actually. It’s hard to tell the difference when it’s done right.
There is no doubt that the polls are bad for Fed Labor at the moment, however, I find the degree of chickens having hatched and accompanying hubris from the LNP supporters just extraordinary.
Not only that, they actually want a government that will mess things up economically. Extraordinary.
Ruserious
[Vote for Tony and pay Tolls on YOUR roads.]
This is precisely the example of Labor BS that made me despondent today. Labor promises to contribute an extra $300 million to an $8 billion project (total $1.8 billion, barely 20%) then pretends there will be no tolls. It is not even a clever lie. Of course there will be tolls on Westconnex, no matter who wins.
Besides, current rhetoric aside, current government policy has been to encourage private finance of urban freeways as a means of demand management, and fund urban rail instead. It is good policy, so why pretend it does not exist?
And Transurban are the largest private toll road operator in the world, and owned by many super funds providing for the retirement of Australian workers. The M2 cost overrun is peanuts.
Back to watching the football.
Hullo Harry “Snapper” Organs
Good to see you back posting, havn’t seen you for while. Also with such a good comment
From previous thread:
victoria@1930
Gold Star for Comment Of The Day
Bushfire@119 – thanks, amazing sounding tool, I need to look into it further to understand the process, any good links?
Making a profit from roads is a very strange concept.
Treasurer nor Wayne Swan will now be allowed to talk about Coalition budget black holes… they have completely lost all credibility and everyone will take anything Swan or Treasury say now with a spoon of bullsheet.
HSO
Long time no see, nice to have you back.
106
ruawake
[>Hilarious … if only you applied the same kind of sensible standard to the NBN you’d look less silly.
The disconnect is palpable.]
You are too polite.
120
Harry “Snapper” Organs
[Not only that, they actually want a government that will mess things up economically. Extraordinary.]
That’s tribalism for you.
HSO
Greetings.
HSO
Good to see you back . The tory Piranha Brothers need your attention.
HSO:
Good to see you again.
watchibg 4 corners is very frightening,
with conservatives gov.. will they change the gun law here.
I am starting to really think that people who vote conservastive should feel shame
[I am starting to really think that people who vote conservastive should feel shame]
Mysay
only just starting to think this :devil:
Mark The Ballot 113
[For the past six weeks, the Bayesian aggregation of the two-party preferred polling has been bouncing along in a range between 44.0 and 44.6 per cent.
The end point of the Bayesian aggregation currently sits at 44.2 per cent. Like last week, this result would see the Coalition winning around 99 seats and Labor around 48 seats in the House of Representatives.]
Thanks for this analysis which I think is soundly based. However it seems that the estimate of 99 seats for LNP is based on uniform swings (as per Anthony Green’s pendulum). It’s interesting that sportingbet have 101 or more seats at $1.70 and the narrower band 101 to 110 at $2.70 compared with 91 to 100 seats at $3.20. So either their individual seat polling is showing the effect of a non-uniform swing, or their internal polling generally is more pessimistic for Labor, or they’ve taken a helluva lot of money for a higher number of estimated LNP seats. I suspect it is more about their closer look at or knowledge of the polling. Even the most optimistic of the bookies towards ALP, sportsbet, has slightly shorter odds for over 100 than for 91-100 LNP seats. I know that this simplistic approach ignores somewhat the probabilities of less than 91 seats but in general I’d say it’s telling us that the bookies believe things are worse for ALP than the polls are currently showing.
“@SimonBanksHB: “When the current PM and Treasurer…tell you that the Australian economy is doing better than most – they are right” John Howard 10/05/13”
@SamCD2301: #qanda audience. http://t.co/7Jsw2SKQwL
@larissawaters: With Sarah, ABC makeup lady who I wish could assist me every day! All ready for #qanda. Thanks for the well wishes! http://t.co/zQETHvhxqj
Parliament’s back tomorrow with the Budget. It will be interesting to see if there are any surprises – I suspect not. Most of the bad news has probably already come out. The Opposition have probably already written their address in reply and News Limited have already written their budget stories – with a couple of gaps to add references to measures in the budget that fit the narrative. And we will have the joy of seeing George Brandis, Chrissie Pyne and Julie Bishop back on our screens.
One suggestion – if the Opposition asks for an election now, call their bluff. Then Abbott can have a stand-alone half Senate election next year after the public have had a chance to experience Abbott PM. Probably Labor’s best chance for an early return and in the meantime hold back the worst. Keep Abbott to his word on IR and save the economy from Abbott’s PPL and Direct Action. And see him fail to stop the boats. And see Abbott make an idiot of himself on the international stage.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-13/bernardi-calls-coalition-to-oppose-local-government-referendum/4686816
…
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/mungo…/04/…/local-government-trouble
Apr 30, 2013 – And because councils are not recognised in the constitution, they cannot … Tony Abbott says he quite likes the idea, but others in his party don’t, … Back in 1988 Bob Hawke proposed a similar referendum, relying on the fact …
4C on Tom Waterhouse next week 👿
if Australia faced a huge problem
,defence,
disaster health
could one rely on abbott to go through with what he first says
ssm ppl now the council referendum
how can any thinking aus. vote for this person.,
quite scary to not have leadership
\its a puzzle to thinking aust. how conservatives
think this is leadership
in times of a dreadful happening and could happen any time which way would go.
one day this one day that
god help us
=======================
re 4 corners if only Kerry Obrien still was the
person at the desk re the 7.30 report
.
Bernadi – “I’m only speaking for myself at the moment…” thank god for that.
my say
Yes. Or Andrew Olle if he was still with us.
guytaur
Posted Monday, May 13, 2013 at 9:09 pm | Permalink
“@SimonBanksHB: “When the current PM and Treasurer…tell you that the
=======================================================
when I saw this before I thought it was a fake tweet
so what goes with this,
======================================================
is jw unhappy with tone
I amazed and the day before the budget
thanks JW
@tveedercom: Follow the rolling transcript of #QandA this evening on http://t.co/Gq8h303cP2 (via #ABCNews24)
yes guytuar
the quality days of the abc long gone.
===========================================================
so what do the conservates here
think of JWH words
=================
don’t bother replying
mysay @133
Why don’t you get your head out of your arse and do some fact checking. It was Howard that introduced stricter gun controls in Australia. GO away and spin your shit elsewhere.
The US is a cluster-f–k, but don’t get carried away with similarities or comparisons…
139
The 1988 referendum was a mid-term referendum (historically less successful) not a referendum at an election the Opposition expected to win.
There was not, as far as I am aware, any perceived threat to any Commonwealth program of direct funding to local government in 1988.
socretas,,, so what the problem with not paying tolls
we have NO tolls here, you like tolls vote liberal
That’s really left me wondering now, i don’t know who to believe.
All the reactionary Tea Baggers on here telling me the worlds best Treasurer and PM are useless or the former PM John Howard, who was once Treasurer, who has come out now telling us all that the Treasurer and PM are 100% correct with the way they are dealing with our economy.
I take it reading between the lines that he is saying that Abbott, Hockey etc are nothing but a pack of liars regarding the Governments ability to handle the economy.
Shucks i think i will accept that all the reactionary Tea Baggers on here are the fools.