Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

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  1. CTar1

    Just remembered. You are quite particular about those “within” as opposed to the peasants “without”. Last week I came across by chance reference to one of your neighbours and it seems you are not alone in distinguishing between the two 🙂

    [ St Giles-without-Cripplegate is a Church of England church in the City of London, located within the modern Barbican complex. When built it stood without (that is, outside) the city wall, near the Cripplegate. The church is dedicated to St Giles, patron saint of beggars and cripples.]

  2. CC

    You are so easy to hook.

    [Transurban will book a $50 million cost over-run on an upgrade to the Hills M2 tollroad in north-west Sydney, which is running behind schedule …]

    Give up while you are behind.

  3. so do conservatives hold back the country
    they never do the big things

    the snowy mountains scheme began during the time of a labor

    pm .
    and now we have a labor gov, putting in the biggest
    new infrastructure so far in our history

    the NBN, so could we wonder if the conservatives have no interest in progressive aust.

    the Sydney air port could be another example

    so keep the country in the dark nothing new

    so is this called chaeap labour conservatiism

  4. Compact crank

    Dont worry i do believe it , and i can not wait to see news ltd/abbott reason for losing

    They will try to claim we were robbed again , we were leading the polls and still could not win government

  5. Firstly the one and only reason the bills went up is because the Liberal Government put them up.

    Secondly the Libs have not made the case for the need for power prices to go up. They just put them up, after promising not to. I don’t know if they just can’t manage things as well as labor, but the trains seem to indicate they are very very poor managers indeed.

    Thirdly, while Labor managed so well to keep the prices down over 11 years, if Colin wanted to, he probably couldn’t have done it quite as well, but he didn’t even try. Nope lets hike up the charges.

    Finally I think there was a reason besides excellent Labor management and budget outcomes that the power prices were maintained at the levels they were at … wonder if you even know what it was.

  6. Household electricity bills are likely to soar even higher than the 23 per cent recommended yesterday after the state government revealed it did not intend to remove a tariff that accounts for about $95 per bill.

    However, if the ERA’s full suite of recommendations were accepted, the government would gain $400 million from reaching cost reflectivity, creating a net gain of $220 million.

    The ERA says its recommended increase is needed to cover increases in the cost of generating and distributing electricity, as well as to make up for the former government’s eight-year price freeze.

    It accounts for the federal government’s carbon tax, which is expected to add more than 8 per cent to electricity bills from July 1.

    Residents would bear the brunt of price increases, while large businesses would have their bills cut by more than 9 per cent.

    Note the favourable treatrment of business ahead of households

    Read more:

  7. Holding back utility prices in W.A. was a bipartisan policy. Like the federal surplus it became a fetish. Any party that even hinted at price increases resulted in floods of tales of woe on radio and tv about starving ,freezing pensioners. Holding prices was the benchmark for “good governance”. It was ,as the seppos say, a third rail issue.

  8. Nice of the Transurban guy to agree today that he accepted criticism from analysts that traffic volumes on part of the M2 – near the Windsor Road ramps – were ‘‘rubbish at the moment’’.

  9. October 2010

    In Western Australia, profits at the state-owned utility Synergy jumped 9.5 per cent to $98m, thanks to a 19 per cent surge in revenue to $2 billion.

    Synergy’s customers were hit with price increases of 7.5 per cent last April and a further 10 per cent in July.

    The Consumer Action Law Centre yesterday called on governments to put customers before profits.

    Note – profits up yes profits….yet prices keep increasing

  10. [Thirdly, while Labor managed so well to keep the prices down over 11 years, if Colin wanted to, he probably couldn’t have done it quite as well, but he didn’t even try. Nope lets hike up the charges.]

    It’s not just electricity, but everything else as well: gas, water, water rates, power. It’s all gone up and at alarming rates during the Barnett govt. And no explanation is ever given. Those hanging shit on Swan for not being able to sell the govt’s achievements should cast their eyes over the WA govt to see what incompentent ‘selling’ REALLY looks like.

    What irks me is that the govt then has the cheek to tell Wheatbelt farmers to naff off when they ask for some assistance. It took the Gillard Labor (yes, LABOR) govt to shame Barnett’s mob into doing something to assist the very constituency that return Liberal and National MPs to Parliament.

    Remember too that The Emperor is holding out on people with disabilities by offering an inferior, uncosted, and uncertain assistance scheme compared with a national disability care scheme supported by every other state and territory.

    Barnett and his govt are a disgrace.

  11. poroti

    [You are quite particular about those “within” as opposed to the peasants “without”.]

    The Wall is where it is.

    Pheasants, if they can fly that’s good..

  12. Steve777 – if you are not going to make a Toll Road profitable then why would a business invest? To lose money?

    The public- private model hasn’t worked well. Most private partners have gone broke. If toll roads mean that alternatives need to be limited then I don’t think the model we’ve been using- which increases congestion in local roads – is appropriate. I would prefer that they were built in the traditional way – borrowing – with construction and maintenance tendered out to private partners if that’s the best way to get them built and maintained. Or don’t build he Freeway but improve existing roads and public transport.

  13. WeWantPaul – power prices had to go up. They had been artificially held down by the ALP thereby leaving the fiscal IED which has now been managed by the Liberals in order to move towards what the real price should be. ALP mismanagment cause dthe pent up prices to explode. The Liberals would have ignored all sensible economic advice to continue with the price freeze beyond 11 years.

  14. labor Medi care
    education labor HECS and gonski

    liberals NO interest in much at all

    then you hear let private enterprise do it, but private enterprise is attached to gov, through regulation
    and that now it should be

    conservative cheap labour is

    not spending on ,health education infrusture

    leave to the progressives
    then break it up sell it or get rid of it

    in the mean time the liberals voters use all the progressive stuff then scream when it s gone
    so good bye medi care

    good by pbs.
    good by HECS

    hello copper rotting stuff our phone lines sit in

    hello sick people in hospital corridors
    hello uneducated people
    helo more crime,

    see the pattern

    keep us un informed and un healthy

    then get rid of unions

    all comes to cheap conservative labour

    I related the story on the other blog
    of my fathers old friend who mentioned in the 50s
    how this was talked about

    cheap conservative labour

    I thought I share his thoughts with you all

    not many old digger s left

    also said he not fight in war for
    he want a progressive country for his great grandchild

  15. In 2005 who said not only that there should be a price cap but that prices of electricity should come down?

  16. Socrates has expertise in transport engineering and architecture, and I’m sure he will have something intelligent and insightful to say about the ‘value’ of continued expansion of tollways as a solution to urban transport congestion when he is next here.

  17. Lasy year WaterCorp contributed around 50% of its profit (theres that word again – profit) to Barnetts revenue – $400 million….yet prices keep rising….and debt keeps rising – bloody Liberals

  18. Steve777 @68 – where do you get you “most” statistic from? By “most” I assume you mean more than 50%. I’d really like to see that statistic source.

  19. Excellent economic management by labor kept the prices down, dishonesty and incompetence by Barnett put the prices up.


    I have chatted to him a lot today and will
    write more of his thougts soon
    he resides in a nursing home, so I was telling him about the nbn
    and How we would be able to stay in our home with the help of the nbn.. looked rather sad and said

    gosh if only I could of don’t that.
    my girl he was called me that,,( dads friend)
    progress is a great thing,
    said how he saw too many awful things like depression and the wars, said conservatives have lot to answer for,
    then thought would of great to have a wayne swan around during the depression his reference was to the

    ive decided to write a little diary in my documents
    as it nice to us to understand the past
    as I said he mentioned he did not go to war
    for conservatives to ruin the country and take away all the benefits

  21. Where is all the excellent economic advice that told Barnett it was good economics to slug consumers more for domestic electricity?

  22. My point is the centrepiece of the Budget tomorrow will be a $100 billion infrastructure spend (over the next squillion years).

    Albo has already picked fights with NSW and Qld over tolls, it will go down well in suburban sprawl land.

  23. [Keating was polling above 40% Primary vote for most of his term according to newspoll.]

    Keating didn’t compete with a significant Left wing third party.

    [This is nothing like the position Gillard is in, she can’t win unless she gets over 38% Primary and she hasn’t achieved a single poll at that number since election day.]

    All Labor need is a 2PP majority in a majority of HoR seats. A higher primary can make that easier but it’s not the be all and end all of electoral math. Especially, as previously mentioned, there is a significant Left wing third party in the mix.

    Don’t get me wrong, I am not pretending that Labor are doing well in the polls and they’re certainly trailing the 2PP, but to start saying “It’s impossible to win that race with less than X%” is just silly.

  24. [confessions @64 and how about that swing against the Coalition on 9 March?????]

    What does this have to do with Liberals raising the cost of utilities?

  25. [Gasp, surely Barnett didn’t……LIE about his intent in govt to keep utility prices down?]

    Leaders should stop making promises like that when campaigning. While in opposition, it’s an easy promise to make but really, it’s often luck as to whether or not you can keep said promise and it creates an unrealistic set of expectations from the electorate, not just of said leader but of all future leaders of both sides.

  26. [WWP:

    Gasp, surely Barnett didn’t……LIE about his intent in govt to keep utility prices down?

    He is very poor at telling the truth and worse at honouring commitments.

  27. I think it need to be posted on most PB pages.

    [Mr Howard said he is optimistic and bullish about the future of the country.

    “When the current prime minister and the treasurer and others tell you that the Australian economy is doing better than most – they are right,” he said.

    “We are still fortunate that we have an unemployment rate with a five in front of it. I wouldn’t have thought that was going to be possible a couple of years ago, and I don’t think many people would have. Our unemployment has remained pleasingly quite low.

    “And our debt to GDP ratio, the amount of money we owe to the strength of our economy, is still a lot better than most other countries.”]

    Howard not giving a big tick to Tony’s team.

  28. poroti

    [it seems you are not alone in distinguishing between the two :)]

    A difference between class and arse – Boris Johnson or the Lord Mayor?

  29. Carey Moore:

    The Liberals in this federal parliamentary term have turned their backs on bipartisanship, despite the govt behaving like adults. The coalition can kiss my proverbial as a result.

  30. [Howard not giving a big tick to Tony’s team.]

    Or setting the scene in anticipation of an Abbott govt.

    Remember, the Liberals are full of hubris and expecting to form govt at the Sept election. Howie’s comments should be viewed in that context.

  31. No need to apologise Compact Crank you weren’t the only one taken in by Barnett’s lies over the electricity price increases, shame for him they keep hansard, if only hansard was like the media and what you say yesterday is gone forever.

  32. Bushfire@81 – good on you. When I can afford one I’ll be very interested in looking into it for 3D modelling of buildings. The segment I spotted on TV with the guy who created the handgun was a worry though. Or maybe that’s just the media hyping up an extreme application.

  33. Ruawake @52

    OMG – a cost over run on a major infrastructure project – well that’s the end of Transurban.

  34. CTar1


    A difference between class and arse – Boris Johnson or the Lord Mayor?
    For Boris the word clarse should be invented.

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