Seat of the week: Aston

Redistribution has given Labor a boost in an eastern Melbourne seat that has remained outside their grasp for over two decades, though perhaps not enough of one in the current environment.

The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully. The redistribution has effected an eastwards shift at the northern end by moving 16,000 voters in Liberal-leaning Vermont to Deakin and adding a similar number in marginal Boronia from La Trobe, reducing the Liberal margin from 1.8% to 0.7%.

Aston was held for its first two terms by Labor’s John Saunderson, who had won the neighbouring seat of Deakin for Labor in 1983. Saunderson inherited a notional Labor margin of 4.1%, which rose to 6.5% in 1987. Saunderson then copped the full force of Labor’s statewide battering in 1990, when it was one of three Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to the Coalition and one of nine to be gained by them. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Peter Nugent, a noted moderate who at times bucked his party’s line on indigenous issues. Nugent’s sudden death in April 2001 resulted in a by-election three months later which delivered the Howard government a morale-boosting win that predated the game-changing Tampa episode by a month, Labor managing a swing of only 3.7% swing in the face of a 4.2% Liberal margin.

The member for the next two terms was Chris Pearce, a Knox councillor and managing director of an IT company. Pearce picked up a 7.1% swing at the 2004 election, the biggest in the state in the context of what was a strong performance by the Liberals throughout suburban Melbourne. It was widely noted that this left the seat with a bigger Liberal margin than the famously blue-ribbon Kooyong, which was seen to typify the hold the Howard government had secured in middle-class outer suburbs. However, it equally joined many such seats in swinging heavily to Labor at the 2007 election, when an 8.1% swing reduced Pearce’s margin to 5.1%. Pearce meanwhile became closely associated with Peter Costello, and his announcement he would bow out at the 2010 election came hard on the heels of Costello’s.

The hotly contested preselection to choose Pearce’s successor was won by Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, ahead of Neil Angus, a chartered accountant who would go on to win Forest Hill for the Liberals at the November 2010 state election. Labor was vaguely hopeful that Pearce’s retirement would help add Aston to a list of Victorian gains compensating for expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but the 3.3% swing fell short of the 5.1% margin. Labor has again endorsed its candidate from the 2010 election, Rupert Evans, deputy secretary of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,002 comments on “Seat of the week: Aston”

Comments Page 38 of 41
1 … 37 38 39 … 41

  1. mr bowe

    are you touchy about poll stories

    just joking

    there is one poll i think u will be rather wrong in

    i am convinced the aust, people are not as silly as some think

    who wants to vote their life away, would u

  4. I imagine that is a reference to two of the Gospeleers. It makes sense for the Republicans to prefer Paul who clearly had, as we might now say, a problem with women.

  5. GG she would probably have more luck texting with a phone rather than with a cockatoo

    dont know how you would text with a cockatoo, let alone on with it on your shoulder

  7. @Crikey/1852

    Then Coalition will accuse of being an “agent” or something like the howfastisthenbn.com.au website.

  9. I often wonder if NSW will now need to build a new prison to house all the ex-Labor pollies, ex-union heavies and all their “union mates” that will be heading it’s way.

    Is there any nice little islands near Sydney we can turn into a new alcatraz?

  10. Actually, speaking of the racing kerfuffle, here’s an insight into the former jockey Allan Robinson. There aren’t too many people I’ve spoken to who consider him a wholesome individual.

    http://www.theherald.com.au/story/312746/robbo-leaves-buman-fuming/

    In this case, the accusation is he turned his back on one councillor he had promised to ally with, & switched sides to filthy-rich Property Developer & Climate Change Sceptic Jeff McCloy (now Newie Lord Mayor).

  12. [Ringo was the favourite of 17% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats]

    Democrats widely condemned for class war against drummers.

  13. crickey i have tried to get it on to a few face books

    hope u all do

    who would want to vote their life away.

    the nbn can save lives in the out back and at home
    there was link this week from sen, conroys web site which i posted.

    that will help people have better health

    I have NO intention of being institutionalised in a
    nursing home, if i get sick and OLD the NBN will keep me in my own home you can speak gp, with sype
    also on the simulator re the gov NBN and the
    i would presume in the future blood pressue could even be taken,,,?????

    copper system, the different speeds

    one slow as snale the other fast as speed of light
    now that could make a difference a life saver.
    voting for a slow speed broad band

    may take you life away
    as sometimes medical decisions must be made in a hurry

    the NBN saves lives

    so why vote to take your life away and
    your pension at 1/4 of what it is now

  15. Sean Tisme

    ‘I often wonder if NSW will now need to build a new prison to house all the ex-Labor pollies, ex-union heavies and all their “union mates” that will be heading it’s way.’

    So, you would build a prison for three or four people?

    Typical Liberal waste.

  19. GrimTidings

    I just have to remind you for that outburst of Henny Penny Newcastlism.

    44-14, Nine tries to two. 😛

  20. It looks likely that the person who will emerge from the procession of ex jockey, ex footballer, John Singleton and the Waterhouse mob at the More Joyous inquiry as the best and most credible character is Eddie the brothel owner.
    For those who might be interested at about the 20min mark of last Wednesday night Grandstand there were some comments made regarding the Bookie Tom Waterhouse.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-08/grandstand-wednesday-may-8/4678218
    To the effect of smug, called his Advert persona a facade.What a surprise.

  22. [So, you would build a prison for three or four people?]

    Haven’t been keeping up have you?

    Bit more than that now, I’m counting at least a dozen potentially implicated just from the Obeid saga. Then we got the HSU case with another handful of potential suspects.

    And every week we find out more and more people are involved.

  23. Gecko
    And of those 11% who think Elvis is still alive it it probable that they are mostly Republican voters from the South.

  24. Sorry Mr Tidings but Johns is a Cockie and that is enough to insult his character. The fact he captained the Cockies makes it even more so. No prisoners taken where origin is concerned. 😉

  26. have to agree with the poll finding about Hendrix being the favoured to bring back. But something is wrong when democrats next favour the resurrection of whitney houston!

    I was always surprised The Australian didn’t go after Bob Brown for not saving Hendrix (he was on duty in casualty when he was bought in). Probably their red-neck editor/readers would not see Jimi’s demise as a bad thing. (I can see Chris Mitchell saying “That don’t sound like no Hank Williams tune to me”)

  29. Sean Tisme

    Oh, I see. You have charged and convicted a swag of people. You would be useful player in the North Korean legal system.

  32. David Speers ‏@David_Speers 18m Tony Windsor says time for Tony Abbott to “get off the potty…put up or shut up” in relation to no confidence motion.

  33. David/ RU

    Oh,

    I see. It’s like that is it.

    I see William has not banned you two. Especially RU in light of his pumped-up (yeh – sure they were just on a ‘natural high’) team winning on the weekend.

    I guess it backs to looking at spreadsheets & counting numbers for me then…. 🙁

    grumble grumble queenslanders whinge raiders whinge.

  35. Not Union Officials or Labor ex-pollies

    A decade ago Australia was the top-ranked ”clean” country in the world by Transparency International. Today it has fallen to eighth place.

    Australia’s worsening record in offshore corruption relates largely to the Australian Wheat Board scandal in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, which involved government kickbacks.

    But the ranking is likely to deteriorate further with the Rio case and – potentially – BHP’S ”Cambodia” case, news of which broke only in recent days and relates to alleged bribery at a former bauxite operation.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/australia-is-sliding-down-the-international-corruption-ladder-20100424-tknv.html#ixzz2T9dQRckz

  36. It seems that Clive will register the UAP in Qld, but PUP Federally.

    When and if the other UAP folds, Clive will change the party name. Seems a bit messy.

    Why not call it the Titanic Party from the outset.

  37. Boerwar 1849.

    CW
    That was one of the best segments, IMHO. Yes, Koch glowed!

    Then there was this.

    Joyce Purick (female commenter my previous) Political Reporter, NYP, 1973/78.

    The tone of the paper changed. The look of the paper changed. There were screaming headlines, there were big pictures, there was a lot more violence. A lot more emphasis on crime. So it became unreliable. Almost overnight.

    Next commenter. Murdoch had sustained the Post, through years of striking losses. The readers loved it!

    But the advertisers weren’t convinced.

    They were concerned that maybe the Post readers weren’t the right sort of readers and the Chairman of Bloomingdale’s once famously said:

    Rupert, your readers are my shoplifters.

    Laughs ironically and stabs himself through the heart.

  40. A FORMAL investigation has been launched by Queensland’s corruption watchdog into Liberal National Party President Bruce McIver. CMC probe into LNP boss

    29 Mar 2011

  45. dont know what Clive is playing at, but he said wtte that Slipper was too much of a risk being a member of his party, as he might be a “mole” for Abbott

  46. 1858

    Maybe Ringo`s low rating (second lowest) is because Thomas the Tank Engine (narrated by Ringo) is not so big in the USA?

  47. Interesting

    “@sjsmail: The Chamber of Commerce and Industry Queensland says it shares union concerns about changes to IR laws. #qldpols @abcnews_qld”

Comments Page 38 of 41
1 … 37 38 39 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *