Seat of the week: Aston

Redistribution has given Labor a boost in an eastern Melbourne seat that has remained outside their grasp for over two decades, though perhaps not enough of one in the current environment.

The outer eastern Melbourne electorate of Aston was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held by Labor in the early years of its existence, since which time it has steadily strengthened for the Liberals. It covers the Liberal-leaning suburbs of Wantirna in the north and Rowville in the south, along with naturally marginal territory in Wantirna’s eastern neigbours Bayswater and Ferntree Gully. The redistribution has effected an eastwards shift at the northern end by moving 16,000 voters in Liberal-leaning Vermont to Deakin and adding a similar number in marginal Boronia from La Trobe, reducing the Liberal margin from 1.8% to 0.7%.

Aston was held for its first two terms by Labor’s John Saunderson, who had won the neighbouring seat of Deakin for Labor in 1983. Saunderson inherited a notional Labor margin of 4.1%, which rose to 6.5% in 1987. Saunderson then copped the full force of Labor’s statewide battering in 1990, when it was one of three Victorian seats to record double-digit swings to the Coalition and one of nine to be gained by them. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Peter Nugent, a noted moderate who at times bucked his party’s line on indigenous issues. Nugent’s sudden death in April 2001 resulted in a by-election three months later which delivered the Howard government a morale-boosting win that predated the game-changing Tampa episode by a month, Labor managing a swing of only 3.7% swing in the face of a 4.2% Liberal margin.

The member for the next two terms was Chris Pearce, a Knox councillor and managing director of an IT company. Pearce picked up a 7.1% swing at the 2004 election, the biggest in the state in the context of what was a strong performance by the Liberals throughout suburban Melbourne. It was widely noted that this left the seat with a bigger Liberal margin than the famously blue-ribbon Kooyong, which was seen to typify the hold the Howard government had secured in middle-class outer suburbs. However, it equally joined many such seats in swinging heavily to Labor at the 2007 election, when an 8.1% swing reduced Pearce’s margin to 5.1%. Pearce meanwhile became closely associated with Peter Costello, and his announcement he would bow out at the 2010 election came hard on the heels of Costello’s.

The hotly contested preselection to choose Pearce’s successor was won by Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, ahead of Neil Angus, a chartered accountant who would go on to win Forest Hill for the Liberals at the November 2010 state election. Labor was vaguely hopeful that Pearce’s retirement would help add Aston to a list of Victorian gains compensating for expected losses in New South Wales and Queensland, but the 3.3% swing fell short of the 5.1% margin. Labor has again endorsed its candidate from the 2010 election, Rupert Evans, deputy secretary of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,002 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Aston”

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  1. I’m just observing that you have shown an overly enthusiastic lust to post and comment about these sorts of stories over the years.

    You only complain when a Labor politician is involved.

  2. William,

    The common thread is they often involve the alleged sexual activities of others and not Diogs.

  5. BREAKING…

    Well, here’s something interesting:

    3:52pm LISA DAVIES: Horse trainer Gai Waterhouse has been charged by Racing NSW stewards with failing to report any condition that may have affected the performance of More Joyous, and by failing to properly record its treatment.
    Chief Steward Ray Murrihy read out the charges, to which Mrs Waterhouse said she pleaded “not guilty” to both.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/johns-hayson-robinson-front-more-joyous-racing-inquiry-20130513-2jgwk.html#ixzz2T9LQLeiH

  6. Poor Tony.

    Somebody, Briggs I assume, comes up with the little book of spending furphies and Abbott gets to launch it.

    The killer line he delivers is…

    “Obviously there is a certain amount of money which has to be spent in this area,” Mr Abbott said.

    So why release the book Tony? Briggs must be spewing. 😆

  7. I don’t for a moment think your fetishes are politically partisan. You probably play both sides equally unfairly. On this point I believe you are amphibious.

  8. The common thread is they often involve the alleged sexual activities of others and not Diogs.

    That’s probably because I haven’t been accused of being a paedophile.

  9. dave

    Thanks. Interesting. I was particularly drawn to the following invitation to posters at the site. Perhaps William could streamline his rules by copying same:

    ‘Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.’

  10. Jamie Briggs ‏@BriggsJamie 34m
    About to speak to Luke Grant on @2GB873 about the little red book of big labor waste #laborfail

    Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 30m
    @BriggsJamie @2GB873 Is “gold plated coffee machine” a metahpor or a fib? In the book.]

  11. BB

    Horse trainer Gai Waterhouse has been charged by Racing NSW stewards with failing to report any condition that may have affected the performance of More Joyous, and by failing to properly record its treatment.

    That one’s not nearly as serious as giving her son insider information though. The jury is out on that one.

  13. Given that Singo has accepted he acted inappropriately and apologised Waterhouse is unlikely to be in any further trouble other than failing to report. Sounds like a lot of people drank a few too many glasses and lost control of their flappy lips.

  15. BW

    Not sad but that nags’ inquiry (to quote Leo Schofield) “has got my dander up”.

    Hard to think of a more vile collection of people all gathered together.

  16. Sounds like a lot of people drank a few too many glasses and lost control of their flappy lips.

    But what a great news story, millionaire owner, TJ’s daughter, League immortal, brothel owner. It has it all.

    I expect it to be the main news in the Terror for weeks to come – they will milk it for all its worth.

  19. ‘The Little Book of Big Labor Waste’ will not be winning any awards for it’s cover, yellow type on a red background – yipes! Or is it meant to look tacky like the Guiness Book of World Records – purely for the voyeur of politics.

  20. Sadly that is true Rua. All the mix of types to get people excited.

    My guess is Singo and Gai will be bestest mates again soon and neither will talk to the Immortal again. How did he ever get elected into the Immortal Hall of Fame?

  23. Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont 19s Singo’s charges: conduct prejudicial to racing re 3 TV interviews and going off at Gai Waterhouse in mounting yard. Waiting to hear penalty

    John Singleton’s vilest charge is employing Alan Jones and Ray Hadley to spout their bile on radio. His penalty for this is the enduring contempt of millions of citizens.

  31. If you want a stunt to put the spotlight on Government spending, why would you include “little” in the book title.

    Surely HUGE would have been beter?

  32. Didn’t Johns play for NSW when they used to win the SOO occaisionally?

    Can’t remember it was so long ago.

  35. is it that conservatives love cheap labour, is that in their little book of words.
    also that their definition of waste is good health care and good education,
    and decent pensions,
    so this is waste do the abbott lot even like their fellow aust.
    as I said do conservatives love everything on the cheap.
    but nothing but the best for the top end of town
    providing a book with lots of things about the other side’
    is no substitute for policy,

    its a cop out of no vision .and nothing new
    well that’s what conservatives do best
    NOTHING , except take down the living standards of people who actually work

  38. Taken from SBS documentary, Murdoch, Part1.

    Congressman Ed Koch. Picking up his home phone at 7.00 am.

    Koch. Rupert, I said! How can I help you?

    Murdoch. Congressman, I don’t know if it’s a help to you, but the (New York) Post is coming out for you for Mayor today. I hope it will be helpful.

    Koch. I said, Rupert, you have just elected me!

    Female commenter. Murdoch’s really strong support for Koch was of a type we had not seen in New York.

    Day after day after day there would be stories favourable to Ed Koch, big photographs of Ed Koch and Polls about Ed Koch, filling the newspaper.

    The long and short of it is that the paper became a sort of propaganda sheet for Ed Koch.

    Koch. I loved it, because I knew I would be Mayor!

    Commenter. The underdog, Ed Koch, was elected.

  40. So LOTO is going to go ahead with his no confidence motion.

    One way to try and get out of passing the NDIS legislation.

    Add that to his broken promises and backflips

  41. In breaking news:

    3AW Melbourne ‏@3AW693 1h A caller reports a woman driving on the Monash outbound texting with a cockatoo on her shoulder. Best to avoid.

  45. David / Ruawake,

    Forget the political & sexual slurs preceding – you are crossing the line at questioning the credentials of Newcastles’ own Johnsy!

    I cannot sit idly by whilst you cast your fould aspersions on this great footy immortal & fair dinkum legend. I forbid it!

    On behalf of all proud NOVOCASTRIANS, I call, nigh DEMAND William ban you both (& anyone even slightly agreeing with you).

    Once you finish cowering in fear at my anonymous interweb wrath, I expect a full apology. Through WB of course, as you will be banned. For life. So there.

  47. shellbell

    ‘Hard to think of a more vile collection of people all gathered together.’

    It did cross my mind that they richly deserved one another.

  49. CW
    That was one of the best segments, IMHO. What particularly appealed to me was how cheerful Koch was about it all.

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