Seat of the week: New England

The normally sleepy rural New South Wales electorate of New England promises to be one of the highest profile contests of the coming election, with Tony Windsor fighting to survive the backlash over his support for the Gillard government and Barnaby Joyce looking to move his career to a new stage.

UPDATE (29/4/13): Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.

New England was created at federation and has changed remarkably little since, at all times accommodating Armidale and Tamworth and losing Glen Innes only between 1934 and 1949. Currently the electorate sits inland of the north coast seats of Richmond, Cowper and Lyne, extending southwards from the local government areas of Tenterfield and Inverell on the Queensland border through Glen Innes and Armidale to Tamworth, Gunnedah and Walcha. Tony Windsor has been the seat’s independent member since 2001, when he ended an uninterrupted run of National/Country Party control going back to 1922.

Windsor came to politics from a background as a local farmer and economist, winning the state seat of Tamworth as an independent in 1991 after unsuccessfully seeking preselection to succeed a retiring Nationals member. Windsor had received the support of seven out of nine local party branches, and his defeat prompted a revolt among local members of the Nationals as well as the Liberal Party, which did not field a candidate at the election. He went on to win election with 36.2% of the primary vote to 31.9% for the Nationals candidate, prevailing by 9.8% after preferences. Windsor’s victory gave him an early taste of life as an independent in a hung parliament, Nick Greiner’s Coalition government having lost its majority at the election. Windsor was at first the most accommodating of the independents in shoring up Greiner’s position in parliament, but he would join the others in forcing Greiner’s resignation following an adverse ICAC finding in June 1992. Windsor polled 82.2% of the primary vote in the absence of Nationals or Liberal candidates in 1995, which came down to 69.4% when the Nationals fielded a candidate in 1999.

Windsor announced his intention to contest New England two months out from the 2001 federal election, having also floated the idea of running against then Nationals leader John Anderson in the neighbouring seat of Gwydir. He duly recorded 45.0% of the primary vote against 38.9% for Nationals incumbent Stuart St Clair, who had come to the seat in 1998 in succession to retiring former party leader Ian Sinclair, and prevailed by 8.3% after preferences. Windsor’s primary vote would swell to 57.3% in 2004 and to 61.9% at consecutive elections in 2007 and 2010. Windsor’s testy relationship with the Nationals worsened in the lead-up to the 2004 election when he claimed he had been offered a sinecure if he agreed to quit politics, telling parliament a few months later that the offer was communicated to him by a Tamworth businessman acting at the behest of John Anderson and Nationals Senator Sandy Macdonald. This was denied by all concerned, including the businessman.

Household name status awaited Windsor after the 2010 election left him and four other cross-benchers holding the balance of power. With independent Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt of the Greens declaring early for Labor, Julia Gillard needed the support of two of the three remaining independents to achieve a majority. Each represented electorates that were rural and broadly conservative, especially in Windsor’s case. It was thus an especially bold move on Windsor’s part to join with Lyne MP Rob Oakeshott in throwing their lot in with Labor. All indications since have been that Windsor and Oakeshott have paid a high political price for their decision, in contrast to Kennedy MP Bob Katter who cagily declared for the Coalition as the Windsor-Oakeshott deal made his vote redundant. A Newspoll survey of 500 voters in October 2011 had Windsor trailing the Nationals 41% to 33% on the primary vote and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences. In June 2012, at which time it was anticipated Richard Torbay would be the Nationals candidate, a ReachTEL poll of 532 respondents 532 respondents gave Torbay a primary vote lead of 62% to 25%.

Richard Torbay’s name first emerged as a possible Nationals candidate in mid-2011, though it was said at the time that this was conditional on Windsor retiring. Torbay had been an independent member for the state parliament since 1999, when he unseated Nationals member Ray Chappell in the Armidale-based seat of Northern Tablelands. Torbay’s primary vote progressed from 44.2% to 71.3% in 2003 and 72.7% in 2007, before falling back to 63.4%. In the wake of the latter result Torbay complained of “the trashing of the independent brand”, which was easy to interpret as a dig at Windsor and Oakeshott. He also revealed at this time that he had been approached to run for New England by the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party as well as the Nationals, and that he was taking very seriously the offer from the latter. His intention was confirmed in mid-2012, when the party granting him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”.

Torbay’s ambitions became rapidly unstuck in March 2013 when the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from embattled Labor operative Eddie Obeid ahead of his run for state parliament in 1999. Over the next two days Torbay withdrew as candidate and resigned as member for Northern Tablelands, with Nationals state chairman saying the party had received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. This information was referred to ICAC, which raided Torbay’s home and electorate office the following week. Torbay’s loss proved a gain for Barnaby Joyce, who had emerged as the Nationals’ most visible figure since his election to the Senate in 2004 and was widely thought a more promising candidate for the party leadership than low-profile incumbent Warren Truss. Joyce had been open in his desire to move to the lower house, and nominated New England, where he had been born and raised, as his second favoured entry point after the Queensland rural seat of Maranoa.

Not all within the NSW Nationals were quite so keen on furnishing the nominal outsider with what had traditionally been a stronghold seat for the party. In 2011 his opponents sounded out the party’s state leader, Deputy Premier Andrew Stoner, with a view to stonewalling Joyce by contesting the seat and assuming the federal party leadership. Stoner said he wasn’t interested, and the Torbay option would firm in its stead after party polling in early 2012 showed he offered the clearest path to victory over Windsor, including in comparison with Joyce. Thwarted in Maranoa by incumbent Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term, Joyce reconciled himself for the time being to continue serving in the Senate. When Torbay withdrew Joyce was quick to reiterate his interest, although there were suggestions he might have a strong preselection opponent in the shape of Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie. However, Laurie instead chose to run in the state by-election to replace Torbay in Northern Tablelands, and Joyce went to an easy 150-10 win in the local preselection vote over Tamworth IT businessman David Gregory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,050 comments on “Seat of the week: New England”

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  1. Geoffrey the odds are that federal Labor will go the way of NSW and QLD however Abbott just adds an element of uncertainty in some peoples minds.

  2. [When the books are written about Gillard it will be those who sold out who the true believers will blame.

    Just a little hint for you to consider….]

    This cartoon was the one that best reflected new Labor under Gillard and her power backers….

  3. I’ve got a feeling some here really aren’t prepared for the magnitude of the defeat which is coming for Labor.

    It will be unprecedented.

    It’s over.

    The ALP are going to be wiped out.

  4. confessions, the press gallery is a joke. But they are only half the problem. We need to have a far more combative and assertive approach to the contest. It is such a pity that those who may not be named have caused so much disruption in the ranks.

  5. Steve777 @ 1907 Hey – that rhymes!

    So with that margin it could be best case – really bad

    or worst case – really fucking bad.

    You choose.

  6. briefly – so how big do you want the deficiits and debt to grow to and when exactly do you want to start paying them off?

  7. Rose+/-….Do you, like me, find it difficult to pin these right-wingers down on a definate policy point when all they do is troll about and over Labor policy points like some sort of 3am.,booze-soaked groper, without even one of their own?
    They really are pretty useless…as you cautioned ML. about wearing it out…But I wouldn’t want to be seen picking on any single individual when they all qualify as useless..: as useless as premature ejaculation on a porn set…as tawdry as a smear on a used bowel spatula…a wasted space on a vacant lot!
    But you have to give them credit….though I wouldn’t trust their signature on the loan document!

  8. compact crank

    stupid. truth is still in the ranks, somewhere. the liberal destroyed the new millenia, the economy, the republic – and they only get worse. we grieve and still srategise on this site, not rejoice

  9. [1908
    Compact Crank

    The ALP wont be wiped out.

    They’ll lose a huge number of seats.

    They won’t be wiped out.

    Unfortunately.]

    An extraordinary gesture of humility on your part, CC. Have you been drinking? Don’t worry, we know your lot will mess things in within days of taking office and we will be after them. They do not have the first clue about how to run things. They may have fooled the voters. They may have fooled themselves. But they have not fooled us. We know exactly how useless and bankrupt they are and we will be after them, make no mistake.

  10. pity gillard is sudden an everyready bunny – we’d have a deal on leadership before now and in with a chance.

    i will pray

  11. CC, Labor ALWAYS run a more responsible economic policy than the LNP, whatever you might like to think. The party of economic failure is the LNP. Labor will reform the economy and protect jobs at the same time.

    This is practically a foreign language to the LNP, who simply do not believe in economic management. They believe in magic.

  12. [Rosemour or Less
    Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 10:44 pm | PERMALINK
    I’ve got a feeling some here really aren’t prepared for the magnitude of the defeat which is coming for Labor.]

    Fake John has not received advice on that from the PM yet.

    Though….

    Fake John got his new credit card today and planing his trip to Europe while he waits for his pay to increase in a few years. Its a lifestyle thing!

  13. Sean – I’m not concerned about House of Reps seats – that’s in the bag. It’s the Senate where I want to smash the Greens into oblivion and the ALP into submission.

  14. I think we can pretty much ignore what the Liberals say and the few policies (mostly crap) that they have announced. At their core they are Thatcherite. If you want to know their intentions review the IPA site – I think most Liberals on this blog would agree with that. By a historical accident, Tony Abbott, a DLP man at heart, is their leader. But he’ll be ditched in the first term if he does not do what the big corporations want. All the stuff about boats is to attract the punters – a sort of ‘light on the hill’ if you will.

  15. Sean Tiche..I call you “Tiche” because that is the Yorkshire slang term for a “small man”…small in thought, small in comprehension…..: a “little man”.

  16. CC, were it up to me, we would not run specially big deficits – only so big as would be needed to prevent a jump in unemployment. But we would re-order the tax system overnight. We would get rid of the tax shelters and the concessions. We would steepen the progressive scale and support the disposable incomes of middle and lower income households. We would assert control over the exchange rate. We would institute new regulations in banking and relax interest rates. We would fight to protect jobs and support social spending. We would absolutely respond to “hot” portfolio capital flows into the AUD market.

    This economy has to adjust to the end of the resources boom. We must do this and we must build a better economy at the same time. Given the chance, I would do all these things and more.

    Of course, there is not one thing that i would do that the LNP would even contemplate. They are too attached to the status quo and nostalgia for an imaginary past.

  17. Steve777 – unfortunately you are wrong – both Federally and at State level both the Lay Party and the Parliamentary Liberal Party is not even close to the IPA policy prescriptions and the Nationals are Agrarian Socialists.

    The Parliamentary Liberals aren’t as stupid as the ALP to ditch a first term PM.

  18. [1936
    Mod Lib

    confessions is the expert at sexism davidwh, I will defer to her.

    She manages to find it where no-one else can!]

    ML, this remark in itself is sexist, as you’re probably aware.

  19. Briefly @ 1932

    What a joke. Go and get all those policy prescriptions looked at by any reputable economist and you’d be laughed out of the office – unless you think Venezuela is a good economic model.

    There was reason Keating floated the dollar – now why could that be???? OH! That’s it – it’s the best policy.

  20. Well Lateline is over so its time for beddie byes.

    Thanks to all those who have contributed to a hoot of a night!

    Good night. 🙂

  21. @1940 Zoidy

    Not to keen on dictators,

    But you got to admit the Singaporeans have got things pretty well sorted don’t you think?

  22. venezuela is a great economic model – nationalise big industry, democratize the workforce, distribute wealth. way to go planet earth.

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