UPDATE (29/4/13): Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
New England was created at federation and has changed remarkably little since, at all times accommodating Armidale and Tamworth and losing Glen Innes only between 1934 and 1949. Currently the electorate sits inland of the north coast seats of Richmond, Cowper and Lyne, extending southwards from the local government areas of Tenterfield and Inverell on the Queensland border through Glen Innes and Armidale to Tamworth, Gunnedah and Walcha. Tony Windsor has been the seat’s independent member since 2001, when he ended an uninterrupted run of National/Country Party control going back to 1922.
Windsor came to politics from a background as a local farmer and economist, winning the state seat of Tamworth as an independent in 1991 after unsuccessfully seeking preselection to succeed a retiring Nationals member. Windsor had received the support of seven out of nine local party branches, and his defeat prompted a revolt among local members of the Nationals as well as the Liberal Party, which did not field a candidate at the election. He went on to win election with 36.2% of the primary vote to 31.9% for the Nationals candidate, prevailing by 9.8% after preferences. Windsor’s victory gave him an early taste of life as an independent in a hung parliament, Nick Greiner’s Coalition government having lost its majority at the election. Windsor was at first the most accommodating of the independents in shoring up Greiner’s position in parliament, but he would join the others in forcing Greiner’s resignation following an adverse ICAC finding in June 1992. Windsor polled 82.2% of the primary vote in the absence of Nationals or Liberal candidates in 1995, which came down to 69.4% when the Nationals fielded a candidate in 1999.
Windsor announced his intention to contest New England two months out from the 2001 federal election, having also floated the idea of running against then Nationals leader John Anderson in the neighbouring seat of Gwydir. He duly recorded 45.0% of the primary vote against 38.9% for Nationals incumbent Stuart St Clair, who had come to the seat in 1998 in succession to retiring former party leader Ian Sinclair, and prevailed by 8.3% after preferences. Windsor’s primary vote would swell to 57.3% in 2004 and to 61.9% at consecutive elections in 2007 and 2010. Windsor’s testy relationship with the Nationals worsened in the lead-up to the 2004 election when he claimed he had been offered a sinecure if he agreed to quit politics, telling parliament a few months later that the offer was communicated to him by a Tamworth businessman acting at the behest of John Anderson and Nationals Senator Sandy Macdonald. This was denied by all concerned, including the businessman.
Household name status awaited Windsor after the 2010 election left him and four other cross-benchers holding the balance of power. With independent Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt of the Greens declaring early for Labor, Julia Gillard needed the support of two of the three remaining independents to achieve a majority. Each represented electorates that were rural and broadly conservative, especially in Windsor’s case. It was thus an especially bold move on Windsor’s part to join with Lyne MP Rob Oakeshott in throwing their lot in with Labor. All indications since have been that Windsor and Oakeshott have paid a high political price for their decision, in contrast to Kennedy MP Bob Katter who cagily declared for the Coalition as the Windsor-Oakeshott deal made his vote redundant. A Newspoll survey of 500 voters in October 2011 had Windsor trailing the Nationals 41% to 33% on the primary vote and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences. In June 2012, at which time it was anticipated Richard Torbay would be the Nationals candidate, a ReachTEL poll of 532 respondents 532 respondents gave Torbay a primary vote lead of 62% to 25%.
Richard Torbay’s name first emerged as a possible Nationals candidate in mid-2011, though it was said at the time that this was conditional on Windsor retiring. Torbay had been an independent member for the state parliament since 1999, when he unseated Nationals member Ray Chappell in the Armidale-based seat of Northern Tablelands. Torbay’s primary vote progressed from 44.2% to 71.3% in 2003 and 72.7% in 2007, before falling back to 63.4%. In the wake of the latter result Torbay complained of “the trashing of the independent brand”, which was easy to interpret as a dig at Windsor and Oakeshott. He also revealed at this time that he had been approached to run for New England by the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party as well as the Nationals, and that he was taking very seriously the offer from the latter. His intention was confirmed in mid-2012, when the party granting him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”.
Torbay’s ambitions became rapidly unstuck in March 2013 when the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from embattled Labor operative Eddie Obeid ahead of his run for state parliament in 1999. Over the next two days Torbay withdrew as candidate and resigned as member for Northern Tablelands, with Nationals state chairman saying the party had received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. This information was referred to ICAC, which raided Torbay’s home and electorate office the following week. Torbay’s loss proved a gain for Barnaby Joyce, who had emerged as the Nationals’ most visible figure since his election to the Senate in 2004 and was widely thought a more promising candidate for the party leadership than low-profile incumbent Warren Truss. Joyce had been open in his desire to move to the lower house, and nominated New England, where he had been born and raised, as his second favoured entry point after the Queensland rural seat of Maranoa.
Not all within the NSW Nationals were quite so keen on furnishing the nominal outsider with what had traditionally been a stronghold seat for the party. In 2011 his opponents sounded out the party’s state leader, Deputy Premier Andrew Stoner, with a view to stonewalling Joyce by contesting the seat and assuming the federal party leadership. Stoner said he wasn’t interested, and the Torbay option would firm in its stead after party polling in early 2012 showed he offered the clearest path to victory over Windsor, including in comparison with Joyce. Thwarted in Maranoa by incumbent Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term, Joyce reconciled himself for the time being to continue serving in the Senate. When Torbay withdrew Joyce was quick to reiterate his interest, although there were suggestions he might have a strong preselection opponent in the shape of Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie. However, Laurie instead chose to run in the state by-election to replace Torbay in Northern Tablelands, and Joyce went to an easy 150-10 win in the local preselection vote over Tamworth IT businessman David Gregory.
The trouble with the Morgan is not whether or not it is up or down or within MOE.
The trouble is that we used to hear that there are 2 years to go so don’t worry, the polls will tighten.
Then we heard that there is a year to go so don’t worry, the polls will tighten.
Now we have just over 4 months to go and the polls are not showing any signs of tightening (in fact we are debating how much if at all they are blowing out).
But wait a minute……there are two secret weapons which will help turn the ship around and convince the voters to come back to the fold:
Gillard and Swan
LOL 🙂
@Mod Lib,
It also protected them from Coalition’s plans, as Coalition was go send the boats back.
[Don’t stress, I have a gut feeling that Abbott will be a oncer.. then we can look forward to 8 years of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull]
YAY!!!!!!!
This recent case is Michael Harmer further poo-ing in his own nest. Can’t help his appeal against the finding of his outrageous behaviour by RaresJ in the Ashby matter.
[The Federal Court has scolded Harmers Workplace Lawyers for acting in its own financial interests after the firm’s client in a sexual harassment case was ordered to pay legal costs that could leave her financially devastated.
Rebecca Richardson, who was represented by Harmers, faces a legal bill running into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, despite her having won a sexual harassment suit against her former employer, software company Oracle.]
http://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/news/harmers-in-firing-line-over-legal-costs
silky 38 – the sad things is that is something the ‘fools’ will never do, admit they did anything wrong in taking down a first term PM. I was arriving home by air that morning, and will never forget droves of travellers immobiled reading the morning press.
no labor will blame like many PB’ers the MSM, the economy, the mining companies, sexism, anything but the core problem of mistrust of their current leader.
ditto greens and 2009 and since re responsibility. milne is a political nightmare.
not happy prospect eh
[The intellectual snobs from WA are sticking together tonight.]
*Laughs*
Honestly, feeney, you do embarrass yourself. 😆
[William Bowe
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 10:15 pm | PERMALINK
It’s torture to only reach 99 Coalition Seats, especially when you take into account Windsor and Oakeshott are probably goners.
If any polling comes in to show these are indeed foregone conclusions (which I expect to happen sooner or later in Lyne at least), I will start including them in the Coalition tally.]
I thought someone here posted that they had been polled in Windsor’s seat around the time of the Barnaby announcement…….did that poll ever see the light of day?
ML, I know, I know. You are always part of the chorum. 🙂
davidwh – how many time has your sentiment been said on PB for past two and half years. what possible evidence do you have for suggesting two and half years of polling are soft and will get better.
if i was in labor now (and hope someone is reading PB) I would be dusting down the clever strategy to get kr back … there is no plan b, and plan a is increasingly weak but can’t be worse than current void
[zoidlord
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 10:16 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib,
It also protected them from Coalition’s plans, as Coalition was go send the boats back.]
Did you enjoy the video of Gillard arguing for just that: turning back the boats?
Tonight on numpty WA regional TV was an advert for Rick Wilson!
Why are the Liberals bothering with expensive TV advertising one week or so after the sitting Nat member announces he isn’t contesting the election, thereby effectively gifting the seat to the Liberals?
Oh, here we go again. When a poll goes south for Labor out come the Jacobeans passing the port over the water, if I have my history correct.
[1856
confessions
The intellectual snobs from WA are sticking together tonight.
*Laughs*
Honestly, feeney, you do embarrass yourself. :lol:]
*Offers confessions a diploma and a funny hat*
@Mod Lib/1860
You should know my not so passionate views of both major parties, they are both shit.
Good on you zoidlord!
Geoffrey only expressing an opinion although Labor do tend to recover when they go through a period of not trying to self-destruct which indicated numbers of soft Coalition support.
The criticism of Harmer on one set of facts will not be before the Full (appeal) Federal Court in relation to another set of facts.
peter costello was in fine form tonight on 730 🙂
briefly:
There’s a cold front approaching the SW this week, and will see storms and showers here Thurs-Fri. Hope youse in the city get some rain. 🙂
Meanwhile Perth has recorded the hottest April on record both maxima and minima. It’s just crazy!
davidwh@1849
Average bounce so far is 1.56 points by last election but a very bouncy 2.31 by respondent-allocated. Still a small sample in terms of number of bounces and I’m not sure how constant their methods have been in that time.
confessions;
I answered your question honestly……are you not game to give us your honest answers to my questions?
What do you think that says?
If you keep that up Rummel, we will be forced to use the A word again.
rummel:
Twas a hoot to remember the Howard era!
[are you not game to give us your honest answers to my questions?]
I said your position was hypocritical, which is my honest answer.
If it makes you feel better I’m quite happy to be TRULY honest and call you a f*cking hypocrite. Does that work?
Certainly that Nielsen poll on attitudes to asylum seekers in August 2011 was of much greater finesse than all other polls on the issue I’ve seen. Remarkable those figures given the 13 years, by then, of demonising the boat arrivals.
Seems to me that it would have been most plausible to bring the Australian voters, apart from the hard-core minority, to accept onshore processing with a strong government educating and explaining in terms of international law and simple compassion.
That chance has been thrown away by this government. It can probably never happen now, because of their monumental failure of leadership.
Your response says it all, confessions, says it all.
You don’t have to sell out, you know. Its your choice.
puff the polls have been south for a very very long time. we have been in a strange ocean without a compass for over two years. the jacobeans look reassuring whoever they might be
[Mod Lib
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 10:26 pm | PERMALINK
rummel:
Twas a hoot to remember the Howard era!]
It was and Costello really nailed home how bad labor is at managing the books.
let’s close the book on polling for the current leadership – if not government. there will be no good or changed news or statistical reason for hope. short of a revolution. close the blog.
Puff, what do you mean when a poll goes south for Labor? They’ve all been going south for Labor. Every single one for 2 1/2 years.
Mod Lib
You need to pace yourself. You’re gonna where it out.
There’s 4 months to go and while we understand your elation at the imminent ascension of Monkey to the throne you want to save something for the party on the 14th and not blow your load here on PB prematurely.
ML:
Given you are someone who continues to pumpfor today’s Liberal party and all that it embraces, it isn’t me who has sold out….
Shell bell
So the Court of Appeal judges will be immune to Harmer’s growing reputation as demonstrated in the David Jones case, and now the Oracle case?
A bit like turning up with a surname Waterhouse – cant help but be suspicious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hk7lUtp0yQ
Too soon?
confessions, I’m hoping for a calm day tomorrow and then some rain would be very good. I spent the weekend in the hills, felling trees and turning the soil. It’s very dry up there. And its humid tonight too rather than just cool. It is all changing as we watch.
Which reminds me, I am so sick of the make-believe politics on Climate Change too. I am just completely fed up with the pointless, infantile, futile self-deception that passes for Tory policy.
Rummel/1878
So selling stuff instead, makes it look good?
Surely that’s “bad management” as well.
davidwh
is that now happening in nsw?
i think the federal gaffes have compounded in state results in recent years. it has all been a catastrophe that snatched savage defeat out of the clutch of overwhelming victory. ditto the greens. some folk resent trust popular success – in politics and arts
When the books are written about Gillard it will be those who sold out who the true believers will blame.
Just a little hint for you to consider….
rosemour
four months? sixteen weeks. O dear. is there a plan b?
Oddly enough Sean watching the Howard video just made me relive the extraordinary sense of relief and unbriddled joy I flet the night in 2007 the little fucker was tossed out.
As I wrote in mu Crikey Election Guide ‘ Free at last’
I’m looking forward to Monkey’s political demise already.
I can wait.
where are all the strategist now, of inevitable fabian crawl to victory. weren’t we suppose to be levelled pegs year ago. those who questioned such reasoning here, in time when there was time to change tact, were cajoled and frostbitten and trashed. look, things were delicate but possible in december and jg made the mistakes up front this year. been nose dive since.
[So the Court of Appeal judges will be immune to Harmer’s growing reputation as demonstrated in the David Jones case, and now the Oracle case?
A bit like turning up with a surname Waterhouse – cant help but be suspicious.]
Yes.
Facts in one case cannot be translated to another except (mainly) in criminal cases eg tendency or propensity evidence and prior convictions (for sentencing only).
Tendency or propensity evidence says that because it can be demonstrated that Accused A did act B in the past, he/she did the same act complained of in the present.
briefly:
It’s somewhat cool here, but overcast and very still. Not humid. I agree that it’s the calm before the chaos – in as much as we get chaos at this time of year.
The Liberal policy on AGW emissions is quite simply fiscally irresponsible. No sensible govt would ever propose such madness or burden to taxpayers. What a shame that this reckless brain snap has never been properly examined and presented to voters by the reported 200+ members of the Canberra press gallery!
@1884 – thought you were going to roll out a Downfall parody – plenty of options for one.
rummel, Costello was a slug. He ran the economy in the red for every one of his years in office, and left us with nothing to show for it. What a useless excuse for a Treasurer he was. He saddled middle Australia with so much debt they will never pay it off. What a smug, self-glorifying, supercilious piece of flimflam he is – a complete waste of space.
mod lib
when books are written about gillard. we have no shakepeare to express the moral gravitas or tragedy involved.
20 weeks to the election
[geoffrey
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
mod lib
when books are written about gillard. we have no shakepeare to express the moral gravitas or tragedy involved.]
lol. 🙂
Briefly @1793
Amen to that. It’s our only hope.
Cyclone Zane coming towards shore in North Queensland – another extreme weather event consistent with global warming modelling. The water is still warm enough after the season.
[“only six cyclones have occurred in Australia’s eastern region in May since 1970.”]