UPDATE (29/4/13): Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
New England was created at federation and has changed remarkably little since, at all times accommodating Armidale and Tamworth and losing Glen Innes only between 1934 and 1949. Currently the electorate sits inland of the north coast seats of Richmond, Cowper and Lyne, extending southwards from the local government areas of Tenterfield and Inverell on the Queensland border through Glen Innes and Armidale to Tamworth, Gunnedah and Walcha. Tony Windsor has been the seat’s independent member since 2001, when he ended an uninterrupted run of National/Country Party control going back to 1922.
Windsor came to politics from a background as a local farmer and economist, winning the state seat of Tamworth as an independent in 1991 after unsuccessfully seeking preselection to succeed a retiring Nationals member. Windsor had received the support of seven out of nine local party branches, and his defeat prompted a revolt among local members of the Nationals as well as the Liberal Party, which did not field a candidate at the election. He went on to win election with 36.2% of the primary vote to 31.9% for the Nationals candidate, prevailing by 9.8% after preferences. Windsor’s victory gave him an early taste of life as an independent in a hung parliament, Nick Greiner’s Coalition government having lost its majority at the election. Windsor was at first the most accommodating of the independents in shoring up Greiner’s position in parliament, but he would join the others in forcing Greiner’s resignation following an adverse ICAC finding in June 1992. Windsor polled 82.2% of the primary vote in the absence of Nationals or Liberal candidates in 1995, which came down to 69.4% when the Nationals fielded a candidate in 1999.
Windsor announced his intention to contest New England two months out from the 2001 federal election, having also floated the idea of running against then Nationals leader John Anderson in the neighbouring seat of Gwydir. He duly recorded 45.0% of the primary vote against 38.9% for Nationals incumbent Stuart St Clair, who had come to the seat in 1998 in succession to retiring former party leader Ian Sinclair, and prevailed by 8.3% after preferences. Windsor’s primary vote would swell to 57.3% in 2004 and to 61.9% at consecutive elections in 2007 and 2010. Windsor’s testy relationship with the Nationals worsened in the lead-up to the 2004 election when he claimed he had been offered a sinecure if he agreed to quit politics, telling parliament a few months later that the offer was communicated to him by a Tamworth businessman acting at the behest of John Anderson and Nationals Senator Sandy Macdonald. This was denied by all concerned, including the businessman.
Household name status awaited Windsor after the 2010 election left him and four other cross-benchers holding the balance of power. With independent Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt of the Greens declaring early for Labor, Julia Gillard needed the support of two of the three remaining independents to achieve a majority. Each represented electorates that were rural and broadly conservative, especially in Windsor’s case. It was thus an especially bold move on Windsor’s part to join with Lyne MP Rob Oakeshott in throwing their lot in with Labor. All indications since have been that Windsor and Oakeshott have paid a high political price for their decision, in contrast to Kennedy MP Bob Katter who cagily declared for the Coalition as the Windsor-Oakeshott deal made his vote redundant. A Newspoll survey of 500 voters in October 2011 had Windsor trailing the Nationals 41% to 33% on the primary vote and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences. In June 2012, at which time it was anticipated Richard Torbay would be the Nationals candidate, a ReachTEL poll of 532 respondents 532 respondents gave Torbay a primary vote lead of 62% to 25%.
Richard Torbay’s name first emerged as a possible Nationals candidate in mid-2011, though it was said at the time that this was conditional on Windsor retiring. Torbay had been an independent member for the state parliament since 1999, when he unseated Nationals member Ray Chappell in the Armidale-based seat of Northern Tablelands. Torbay’s primary vote progressed from 44.2% to 71.3% in 2003 and 72.7% in 2007, before falling back to 63.4%. In the wake of the latter result Torbay complained of “the trashing of the independent brand”, which was easy to interpret as a dig at Windsor and Oakeshott. He also revealed at this time that he had been approached to run for New England by the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party as well as the Nationals, and that he was taking very seriously the offer from the latter. His intention was confirmed in mid-2012, when the party granting him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”.
Torbay’s ambitions became rapidly unstuck in March 2013 when the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from embattled Labor operative Eddie Obeid ahead of his run for state parliament in 1999. Over the next two days Torbay withdrew as candidate and resigned as member for Northern Tablelands, with Nationals state chairman saying the party had received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. This information was referred to ICAC, which raided Torbay’s home and electorate office the following week. Torbay’s loss proved a gain for Barnaby Joyce, who had emerged as the Nationals’ most visible figure since his election to the Senate in 2004 and was widely thought a more promising candidate for the party leadership than low-profile incumbent Warren Truss. Joyce had been open in his desire to move to the lower house, and nominated New England, where he had been born and raised, as his second favoured entry point after the Queensland rural seat of Maranoa.
Not all within the NSW Nationals were quite so keen on furnishing the nominal outsider with what had traditionally been a stronghold seat for the party. In 2011 his opponents sounded out the party’s state leader, Deputy Premier Andrew Stoner, with a view to stonewalling Joyce by contesting the seat and assuming the federal party leadership. Stoner said he wasn’t interested, and the Torbay option would firm in its stead after party polling in early 2012 showed he offered the clearest path to victory over Windsor, including in comparison with Joyce. Thwarted in Maranoa by incumbent Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term, Joyce reconciled himself for the time being to continue serving in the Senate. When Torbay withdrew Joyce was quick to reiterate his interest, although there were suggestions he might have a strong preselection opponent in the shape of Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie. However, Laurie instead chose to run in the state by-election to replace Torbay in Northern Tablelands, and Joyce went to an easy 150-10 win in the local preselection vote over Tamworth IT businessman David Gregory.
[I suggest the choice be between Craig Thomson’s appeal, and kids’ cancer. Hmm, difficult choice.]
A difficult choice only for morons.
What a stupid comment.
ABJ
ALP still more intent on wiring up the house with IED’s than saving the furniture.
[Mod Lib:
You can squeal and jump up and down all you like. At the end of the day it is you who both support and defend a party which actively states it will return to the cruel boat policies it previously had in govt. Yes ML, those policies the Liberals implemented which Labor dismantled when it came to govt.]
Don’t forget Fess, ML voted for the man in 2004 that instigated those harsh practices. ML cannot claim consistency in thought here.
Sure ML, whatever you say.
I note that whenever the conversation comes back to what the Liberal position is on supposedly socially liberal issues you retreat.
Fine. Have it your way.
[The difference is they spent lotto winnings]
By lotto winnings of course you mean the tax revenue that could have paid for the NDIS or Education reform or any one of a number of terrific things that could have stood Australia in good stead for decades to come.
Liberal supporters are incapable of viewing the economic performance of the HowardGovt through anything other than rose coloured fanboy glasses.
jaundiced view
[
Brendan O’Connor channels P Ruddock and K Andrews more convincingly than Chris Bowen – he sounded just like them -even more cruel – on the Manus Is disgrace today]
Just giving red neck land what they want. Did I say “red neck” ? Actually an embarrassing percent of “average” Strayans.
Gary:
And the alternative supported every single one of those policies, and has added Malaysian rendition which the LNP (and High Court of Australia) does not support.
You guys surely cant be struggling to get this point can you?
Gary:
Noted, many times in the past.
🙂
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 8:40 pm | PERMALINK
Sure ML, whatever you say.
I note that whenever the conversation comes back to what the Liberal position is on supposedly socially liberal issues you retreat.
Fine. Have it your way.]
Whenever the conversation comes back to the Liberal position???? Are you serious? I have condemned both major parties positions on asylum seekers consistently for years. Every time I have been asked (about a dozen now) I have said the exact same thing…onshore processing for quick health and security checks and no detention of children.
You cant see that the ALP has supported every single one of the LNP policies you call cruel.
Every single one.
What do you say about that? You have so far avoided answering that question repeatedly 🙂 ….you are a laugh sometimes :devil:
Who would give money to Thommo? He’s still drawing his parlt salary; he’s been found to have ripped off union members’ money on 152 occasions, and he now uses
the loyalty of right-wing ALP members to get money out of them. What a guy! What a hide!
There are thousands of genuinely poor defendants in this country – all more deserving of monetary support for their representation than Thomson.
confessions @1673
And led over 1000 people to their death.. two thumbs up for that strategy into stupidville.
What was that thing that GIllard used to shrill about when the coalition was in power..
“Every new boat is a policy failure’…. How much of a failure is she now ???
ML it’s you that doesn’t get it. You criticise others for being inconsistent WRGT AS. You of all people for heaven sake. You’ve tried to explain away this inconsistency in the past. Just own it.
Mod Lob
[Whenever the conversation comes back to the Liberal position???? ]
Apparently it is somewhere in the Kama Sutra 😆
poroti
[Just giving red neck land what they want. Did I say “red neck” ? Actually an embarrassing percent of “average” Strayans.]
There aren’t that many. And whatever Labor says, however awful they are to desperate people, they still will not get those votes. So why do it? Why not lead the country to a better place?
Morpheus
[And led over 1000 people to their death.. two thumbs up for that strategy into stupidville]
How piss weak is Gillard ? Maaaate “The Rodent” ,Brandis QC + DH copyright, killed nearly 400 people in a single boat. See SIEV X.
LRHB
Gary:
OK, I’ll have a dance or two with you if you like.
Can you name a single Coalition policy on asylum seekers which the ALP has not supported?
When I first asked this question (What is it, more than a year ago now???) I was just interested as I couldn’t think of one. Then Shows mocked me by listing a couple until he was acutely embarrassed by me showing him that the ALP had indeed supported towing back the boats in the past (there is a clip of Gillard arguing strongly for same). Then I faced the barrage of criticism from the usual suspects here, and yet we are still struggling to find a single policy not supported by the ALP.
I am beginning to believe this is because there are no Lib policies on AS the ALP have not supported…
feeney:
I have followed the other posts but LRHB eludes me….please explain?
Sarah Roberts @1694
So Gillard is economically astute because she was able to deliver another massive hole in forecasting and spending with a straight face ? Perhaps she could have mentioned why in economically unstable times they are forecasting 12% increases in revenue other than to give Swanny plenty more borrowed money to play with. Of course she didn’t mention anything about her own contribution to the “hole” with no income from the mining tax.
But of course we must marvel at her magnificent example “John” she used to explain how people should just borrow more money when their income drops because that is how everything gets fixed. We all need advice on how to go bankrupt in less then one year especially since most people can’t work out that you don’t spend money you don’t have and most people can raise new taxes to make up for shortfalls in their finances.
Ultimately, GIllard’s good-cop / bad-cop presentation is just a diversion from what is coming up in the budget. How can you INCREASE TAXES without actually laying the bullshit groundwork first.
That’s one very big horror story arising from Labor lurching to the right, mimicking the Libs, and doing things like going cruel and unlawful on refugees; taking money from higher education and public schools; hurting single parents; and letting miners get away without a proper contribution:
it ‘normalises’ such policy and sets up an expectation in people that it is the norm. It makes it much easier for Abbott to just continue with such policy.
We will live with this awfulness into the future. That is why this Labor govt will not be treated kindly by history.
Mod Lib
Your sanctimonious bullshit is no better than anyone else’s bullshit. You seem a little obsessed quite frankly.
[Whenever the conversation comes back to the Liberal position???? Are you serious?]
I am. The conversation comes back to what the Liberals position is on socially moderate issues (what it was from the beginning on AS in any case but anyways), and you squirm.
When you are pushed further you offer dreamy remarks about a Turnbull PMship, which I’m guessing is only a few comments away now. 🙂
jaundiced view
I gave up when Kimbo rolled over to Howie.
JV:
Bingo!
That hundred million the Libs spent on advertising Workchoices in their last year would come in handy now for something like NDIS or Gonski
poroti @1716
So Kevin/GIllard think is now a competition on who can snuff out more boat asylum seekers… Glad you cleared that up…
Mod Lib
Lying Red Headed Bitch.
Her own words condemn her forever.
confessions:
C’mon, stop it!!!! You are making my sides hurt now, seriously 🙂
If you think the LNP policies are cruel but can’t name a single one the ALP has not supported….don’t blame me, blame what your party has become!
….and guys, do you think I cannot work out what the anger directed towards me means? That you cannot defend your beloved party and so you attack the one who shows you the position your leader has put you in.
This really is a disgrace of a government. It thoroughly deserves the wilderness it will get:
[“Children will again be held in mainland detention centres, with authorities setting aside a compound at Darwin’s Wickham Point centre for families.
It is a significant shift for Labor, which has held a long-time opposition to detaining children. Staff have been told minors could be held within the grounds of a detention centre by the end of the week.
A department of immigration spokeswoman said work had been done to make the compound appropriate for families, who would be held separately to adult men. Immigration Minister Brendan O’Connor has also confirmed he is considering sending children to a modified section of the Curtin detention centre.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-backflip-on-children-in-detention-20130430-2iqrt.html#ixzz2RwXbKWPn
I wish I hadn’t asked now! :devil:
ISRAEL PESSURES OBAMA TO INTERVENE IN SYRIA WITH STORIES OF CHEMICAL WARFARE USAGE
+_______________
A US SITE LOOKS AT THIS ISSUE
http://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2013/04/30/israel-not-pushing-us-to-attack-syria-never-in-a-thousand-ye
PAAPTSEF @1726
Even better would be the $8B the ALP are spending on new boat arrivals… Just think of the money they could have saved if Kevin didn’t have to climb a moral high horse just for the hell of it.
poroti
Yes, that was the point of no return, looking back. The party’s surgical removal of its own spine without anaesthetic has continued since. It’s all jelly now.
spine or heart?
Brendan O’Connor ought to be locked up on Manus Island, and see what it’s like.
Would he like his own kids living under such conditions?
But, it has to be said, O’Connor is a well-known sycophant of Gillard.
Enough said.
ANWAR IN MALAYSIA IS CRITICAL OF THE GILLARD GOVT…SAYING IT HAS FAILED TO CRITICISE HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS IN MALAYSIA AS IT DOESN’T WANT TO OFFEND THE REGIME THERRE WHOSE SUPPOPRT IT STILL SEEKS ON ASYLUM SEEKERS
IF HE WINS THE COMING ELECTIONS HE MAY BE A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR CANBERRA
ML
[Can you name a single Coalition policy on asylum seekers which the ALP has not supported?]
TPVs.
feeney:
The Gillard lurch to the right was for supporters like confessions, and you can see it has worked.
I look forward to the voters having their say on Gillard in a few months….stocking up on popcorn as we speak.
Dio:
Latham supported them in 2004.
[Lying Red Headed Bitch.]
Mod Lib?
morpheus
[ Even better would be the $8B the ALP are spending on new boat arrivals… Just think of the money they could have saved if Kevin didn’t have to climb a moral high horse just for the hell of it. ]
unfortunately for you I remember very well that the Libs supported the change at the time. The Libs spokesperson said something like ‘we have Christmas Island now and don’t need anything else’
[But, it has to be said, O’Connor is a well-known sycophant of Gillard.
Enough said.]
After the whiteanting, leaking and destructive destabilising of the Gillard govt by members of her own Cabinet, you can’t blame her for wanting to surround herself with loyal (yes, LOYAL) members of Caucus.
My grandfather is 84.He is a pensioner,living in his own home.He has a form of cancerous pollups in his postrate that requires his medication to be implanted under his skin twice a year.
The cost of the medication is $1250.00 per injection,($2500.00) p.a).He pays $150.00 per visit to the specialist ($300.00 p.a)to have the injections done.
Medicare (or the PBS) pays 100% for the medication,( I think he pays a small fee to the chemist,not sure though),he pays for the visit to the specialist and gets a rebates from Medicare.
He has said many times that he is glad he lives in Aus and not in the US or other places,and with a health system that allows him to have a decent quality “end of life “.
People may argue about levies and taxes,but when I think about my grandfather I don’t mind paying a medicare levy.
The same goes goes with the NDIS.I saw on the TV tonight Kurt Fernley is about to launch a national advertising campaign in support of the NDIS.I hope they are successful.
There IS across the board support for the NDIS,maybe sometimes all sides of politics just have to say, OK we need it,we have to increase a tax or levy to pay for it,but we won’t oppose it or repeal it.
[Mod Lib?]
Yes?
Ok, you right-wingers…ok..we get it…you don’t want to spend any more of YOUR money and those who are on the bottom of the income ladder can cop the bulk of the cost for social policies….EVEN those policies that benefit the most wealthy…..ok..so what’s new..? It’s the same thing age to age, eon to eon, society to society..: The poor carry the weight of the wealthy…support the slackers who continue to whinge and whinge and whinge and then kick the minority groups and milk the treasury and the populace for all they are worth and then complain that too much is being spent on social policies….and the loop goes around…and now here in this age we have the aspiring nouveau riche, snivelling, smelly, low-bred, mean-spirited, conniving, scheming, bludging, crawling, beady-eyed, penny-pinching misers that, if they were toilet-paper you wouldn’t use them to wipe your a*se, if they were a suppository you would think twice before inserting it…and if they were a leader of the opposition you’d recomend them to the IPA. because THAT organisation couldn’t tell sh*t from clay, but would play with both!
jaundiced view
Vote.1 Helen Clark re Tampa.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Helen-Clark—full-interview-on-asylum-seeker-boats/tabid/370/articleID/218678/Default.aspx
For anyone here still attempting to propagate the old parties’ lie that asylum seekers arriving by boat are ‘illegal’, have a look at this. They are not ‘illegal’:
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1761364/Comment-Illegal-boats-a-political-trick-to-control
Mod Lib
Julia has been engaged in appalling class war politics for some time now.
Simon Crean referred to this recently, noting it is not the way to go, and that Julia has a tin ear etc.
Abbott is not the answer though. He gets away with muttering slogans and cliches, and it’s just not good enough.
I am thinking of moving overseas to Western Australia to see what they put in the water that Confessions drinks.
Time for an ancient history lesson.
John Howard, as treasurer, left the incoming Hawke government with a deficit of $4.4 billion, estimated to grow to $8.9 at least in 1983-84. In today’s money that’s over $25 billion, I think, or maybe more.
Earlier Howard had tried to balance the books and bring on a surplus by having an income tax levy for twelve months.
Now for the biggie – how many levies did the Howard government have? Well, lots.
The Gun Buyback levy – in 1996-97 the 1.5% Medicare levy was increased by 0.2 of a percentage point in 1996-97 to fund the gun buyback.Howard kept it for years.
The milk levy – in 2000 an11¢-a-litre tax on milk was imposed to help the dairy industry restructure following deregulation. it stayed unti the Rudd government did away with it in 2009.
A sugar levy (maybe two of these), to help sugar growers out.
The Ansett levy – in 2001 a $10 slug on flight tickets was introduced to help pay out the minimum eight-week entitlements of the workers who lost their jobs when the airline went bust. We paid so Ansett could shirk meeting their obligations.
Defence East Timor levy – introduced in 2000 as an add-on to the Medicare levy for those earning over $50,000 a year, to help pay for Australia’s army assistance in East Timor.
The terrorism insurance levy, introduced in 2003. This one is still in force, I think. Whenever anyone insures a commercial building, the federal government collects a levy ranging from 2 per cent to 12 per cent to pay for reinsurance against the risk of terrorist attack.
I might have missed one.
All these were done by Howard and Co$talotto to help protect their precious budget surpluses.
Abbott wants a levy/tax to pay for his lavish PPL yet the Fibs are whinging about a levy to pay for Disability Care. With their history? Pfffft!