UPDATE (29/4/13): Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
New England was created at federation and has changed remarkably little since, at all times accommodating Armidale and Tamworth and losing Glen Innes only between 1934 and 1949. Currently the electorate sits inland of the north coast seats of Richmond, Cowper and Lyne, extending southwards from the local government areas of Tenterfield and Inverell on the Queensland border through Glen Innes and Armidale to Tamworth, Gunnedah and Walcha. Tony Windsor has been the seat’s independent member since 2001, when he ended an uninterrupted run of National/Country Party control going back to 1922.
Windsor came to politics from a background as a local farmer and economist, winning the state seat of Tamworth as an independent in 1991 after unsuccessfully seeking preselection to succeed a retiring Nationals member. Windsor had received the support of seven out of nine local party branches, and his defeat prompted a revolt among local members of the Nationals as well as the Liberal Party, which did not field a candidate at the election. He went on to win election with 36.2% of the primary vote to 31.9% for the Nationals candidate, prevailing by 9.8% after preferences. Windsor’s victory gave him an early taste of life as an independent in a hung parliament, Nick Greiner’s Coalition government having lost its majority at the election. Windsor was at first the most accommodating of the independents in shoring up Greiner’s position in parliament, but he would join the others in forcing Greiner’s resignation following an adverse ICAC finding in June 1992. Windsor polled 82.2% of the primary vote in the absence of Nationals or Liberal candidates in 1995, which came down to 69.4% when the Nationals fielded a candidate in 1999.
Windsor announced his intention to contest New England two months out from the 2001 federal election, having also floated the idea of running against then Nationals leader John Anderson in the neighbouring seat of Gwydir. He duly recorded 45.0% of the primary vote against 38.9% for Nationals incumbent Stuart St Clair, who had come to the seat in 1998 in succession to retiring former party leader Ian Sinclair, and prevailed by 8.3% after preferences. Windsor’s primary vote would swell to 57.3% in 2004 and to 61.9% at consecutive elections in 2007 and 2010. Windsor’s testy relationship with the Nationals worsened in the lead-up to the 2004 election when he claimed he had been offered a sinecure if he agreed to quit politics, telling parliament a few months later that the offer was communicated to him by a Tamworth businessman acting at the behest of John Anderson and Nationals Senator Sandy Macdonald. This was denied by all concerned, including the businessman.
Household name status awaited Windsor after the 2010 election left him and four other cross-benchers holding the balance of power. With independent Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt of the Greens declaring early for Labor, Julia Gillard needed the support of two of the three remaining independents to achieve a majority. Each represented electorates that were rural and broadly conservative, especially in Windsor’s case. It was thus an especially bold move on Windsor’s part to join with Lyne MP Rob Oakeshott in throwing their lot in with Labor. All indications since have been that Windsor and Oakeshott have paid a high political price for their decision, in contrast to Kennedy MP Bob Katter who cagily declared for the Coalition as the Windsor-Oakeshott deal made his vote redundant. A Newspoll survey of 500 voters in October 2011 had Windsor trailing the Nationals 41% to 33% on the primary vote and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences. In June 2012, at which time it was anticipated Richard Torbay would be the Nationals candidate, a ReachTEL poll of 532 respondents 532 respondents gave Torbay a primary vote lead of 62% to 25%.
Richard Torbay’s name first emerged as a possible Nationals candidate in mid-2011, though it was said at the time that this was conditional on Windsor retiring. Torbay had been an independent member for the state parliament since 1999, when he unseated Nationals member Ray Chappell in the Armidale-based seat of Northern Tablelands. Torbay’s primary vote progressed from 44.2% to 71.3% in 2003 and 72.7% in 2007, before falling back to 63.4%. In the wake of the latter result Torbay complained of “the trashing of the independent brand”, which was easy to interpret as a dig at Windsor and Oakeshott. He also revealed at this time that he had been approached to run for New England by the Liberals and Katter’s Australian Party as well as the Nationals, and that he was taking very seriously the offer from the latter. His intention was confirmed in mid-2012, when the party granting him “freedom to speak with an independent voice on local issues”.
Torbay’s ambitions became rapidly unstuck in March 2013 when the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from embattled Labor operative Eddie Obeid ahead of his run for state parliament in 1999. Over the next two days Torbay withdrew as candidate and resigned as member for Northern Tablelands, with Nationals state chairman saying the party had received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. This information was referred to ICAC, which raided Torbay’s home and electorate office the following week. Torbay’s loss proved a gain for Barnaby Joyce, who had emerged as the Nationals’ most visible figure since his election to the Senate in 2004 and was widely thought a more promising candidate for the party leadership than low-profile incumbent Warren Truss. Joyce had been open in his desire to move to the lower house, and nominated New England, where he had been born and raised, as his second favoured entry point after the Queensland rural seat of Maranoa.
Not all within the NSW Nationals were quite so keen on furnishing the nominal outsider with what had traditionally been a stronghold seat for the party. In 2011 his opponents sounded out the party’s state leader, Deputy Premier Andrew Stoner, with a view to stonewalling Joyce by contesting the seat and assuming the federal party leadership. Stoner said he wasn’t interested, and the Torbay option would firm in its stead after party polling in early 2012 showed he offered the clearest path to victory over Windsor, including in comparison with Joyce. Thwarted in Maranoa by incumbent Bruce Scott’s determination to serve another term, Joyce reconciled himself for the time being to continue serving in the Senate. When Torbay withdrew Joyce was quick to reiterate his interest, although there were suggestions he might have a strong preselection opponent in the shape of Nationals Farmers Federation president Alexander “Jock” Laurie. However, Laurie instead chose to run in the state by-election to replace Torbay in Northern Tablelands, and Joyce went to an easy 150-10 win in the local preselection vote over Tamworth IT businessman David Gregory.
Has the economy grown 50% in the last 6 years?
WOW, that is good work!!!!!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-backflip-on-children-in-detention-20130430-2iqrt.html
Still boasting about the ALP’s position on asylum seekers, confessions?
I agree
people are very,disconnected
we are not use to early announcement of elections,
but pleased it was done,
we had to flush out the disloyals,
that’s been done, we had to bring up the matter of the debt,. that’s been done,
as I said two young people this week did not even know there was an election on.
they where both amazed and scared about abbott policies or no abbott policies
I believe this is why,, the announcement we are not use to,
but as I said glad it was done
the leaking has stopped,
lets up they keep their heads pulled in
work choices has not been mentioned yet
the union will step up to the plate when ready
to early now
I hope you all read malcom frazers thoughts about abbott
iposted
I sent it to a few old ( age{ libs they are very upset
they loved their malcom frazer
Gauss Accept your rewording.
ML Reith was given a bollicking by Stephen Long, a real economist, on The Drum. Reith didn’t like being told that real economists think Howard and Costello were profligate and wasted the huge mining revenue.
Mod Lib
DFAT fact sheets give 2007 GDP 944.8 billion. 2012 GDP 1,542.1 billion.
BH:
I agree that the Howard government spent too much towards the end, in a vain attempt to retain government.
The difference is they spent lotto winnings.
The ALP is spending 50% than Howard, but they are spending it on a credit card while they are in debt, which is a whole different degree of stupid.
rua, I am in complete agreement with you about education. But I am not with you the illiteracy of the public. People are not stupid. I refuse to operate on the principle that people cannot understand facts and reason. They are open to persuasion, and, in any case, we owe it to ourselves to bring issues to the surface.
I have a limited audience here, for sure, but nonetheless I am confident the bludgers are interested in these issues. I know I bang on about them. But they are really vital and they are about the future we share together. They are about the reality we have to live with, and they have great political relevance, not just now but for the coming years.
I am very glad I have the chance to record my thinking, even if my propositions are sometimes provocative or challenging.
[Hold onto that thought. I would put a $1000 on a Labor win at the next election before giving Thomson a one cent.]
You’re qualitative judgement is confused.
the complancey
again
both my daughters as u know are very labot
when ever I mention the election
they put there head down and want talk about it
I ask the middle one why she said
mum I a terrified of abbott and I just don’t want to
think about it,
the older one when I told her what malcom frazer said
looked horrified
reality hit her,
==================================
may complancy is only that’s it not official
the election I mean
people are funny not like us here.
some remarks ,,,, well people are sick of politics
I reply by saying well you had better start to get unsick
as in the end you will be very sick
if you only have a 3/4 of your pension
I fit my remarks to the age of the person
but then on the other hand as I explained this evening any cuts in pensions hurts all people and loses jobs
we spent less less gst
——————————-
any way there is the family tree show I love on sbs
and it leads to tas so off
..or someone who steadfastly guided the Australian economy through nonstop growth throughout the entire period of government, endless surplusses, endless tax cuts, paid off the previous ALP debt and saved additional billions for a rainy day while honestly admitting his ambitions but never backstabbing his leader.
but couldn’t crack the AAA rating from the 3 major rating agencies.
[It would have been much cheaper for Craig Thomson and the Labor Party to pay back the money to the poor HSU members.
Why is he playing silly buggers?]
Somehow these things can easily get out of hand, especially when there are internal rifts as there obviously are in the HSU.
And then there’s no going back for anyone. I’ve seen it a few times at work and no one is the winner in the end except for the lawyers.
Mod Lib
Building a structural deficit based on the assumption you will continue to have ” lotto winnings.” is the epitome of stupid.
BRIEFLY NO”
NOT LIMITED AUDIECE
you missed the fact that 17 th
looked at pb this month and didn’t post
its usualy about 30
William mentioned it a few night s ago
briefly
on the other hand if you say abbott is in
it may wake up a few people
I have had it said tome,, that the libs will chuck him out
a week after the election.
really I said and how would and why would they do that.
so a lot of liberals don’t like abbott
but well they are like football supporters
ive said that to a few of them this is NOT a foot ball team you know
you can change your vote
Mark Riley on Ch 7 at 6pm was interesting tonight. After a clip of Abbott running past a primary school while children watched, Riley noted two things:
[- while criticising a medicare levy increase for the NDIS, Abbott refused several times to rule it out
– Abbott would cut out Gonski funding but the Government was setting a trap. Payments to the states for Gonski would be enshrined in legislation so these payments would have to be repealed by Parliament and that would not be popular.]
It does seem that the Government is continuing to move ahead with reform legislation up until the last moment and ‘future proofing’ these reforms as much as possible.
You are right, my figures are absolute and not adjusted for inflation.
Interestingly, there was an article about this in todays papers:
“In the last eight years of the Howard government, cash revenues averaged 25.4 per cent of GDP while spending was 24.2 per cent. Result? Budget surpluses averaging 1.2 per cent of GDP.
In 2012-13, revenue will be roughly 23.2 per cent of GDP. Underlying spending, after adjusting for last year’s budget fiddles (which shifted $9 billion of spending into 2011-12), will be roughly 24.5 per cent of GDP.”
So this government has spending higher as a percentage of GDP than the Howard average of 24.2%. And they are spending borrowed money not surplus money like Howard.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/before-we-tackle-the-budget-lets-clarify-a-few-points-20130429-2iot4.html#ixzz2RwDmuoZv
Well my say, perhaps PB will have a wider reach than we might suppose – into the hearts and minds of voters everywhere – and that people will realise that Liberal wishful thinking is not a substitute for assertive economic management.
I hope so.
We really do need to make informed choices. I am so frustrated by make-believe politics, and I’m sure nearly everyone else in the country feels the same way.
That loose screw in Sean Tisme’s head is making a lot of noise:
[Why is {Thomson} playing silly buggers?]
Because he reckons he’s innocent of the charges.
[Still boasting about the ALP’s position on asylum seekers, confessions?]
Yep.
Whatever Labor does with boat arrivals will always be less cruel than anything the Liberal party proposes.
[Mark Riley on Ch 7 at 6pm was interesting tonight. ]
Rimington on Ch10 was even better. Ch10’s report cast the govt and the PM in a very good light, while made Abbott look like a very small man indeed.
[Whatever Labor does with boat arrivals will always be less cruel than anything the Liberal party proposes.]
Which is interesting given you cannot name a single thing the Liberal party has ever proposed which has not received ALP support!
Bushfire Bill
[
That loose screw in Sean Tisme’s head is making a lot of noise:]
It sounds a bit like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwPtEAjLMEo
Costello did very well on 7:30, Leigh seemed quite entertained too! 🙂
[Which is interesting given you cannot name a single thing the Liberal party has ever proposed which has not received ALP support!]
Labor came to govt and immediately dismantled the Liberals’ policies.
Surely you approved?
ML, in fairness you have to recall as well that the Rudd stimulus deliberately inflated spending in order to support demand. The budget this year is for outlays at 23.5% of GDP – a notable in reduction in real per capita spending.
Of course the budget is in deficit. This is a critical point. Because of changes in the global and domestic economies, it is not possible to run the economy at full employment and balance the budget at the same time. We have to adjust. We can do it by driving up unemployment. Or not!
On the face of it, the LNP want to create unemployment – to provoke a recession. Every elector in this country should know this. The LNP, by their words, intend to put people out of work. This is the election issue and nothing else.
Yes, I support any softening of the hard line. Did you support it?
Do you support the hardening of the line now?
The difference between us is that your views seem to change miraculously in mirror image to the ALP policy. When they do 180 degree flips, you do follow suit!
Just a remarkable coincidence perhaps :devil:
A Qld motorist inspired by Fraudband takes the LNP policy to the roads 🙂
[An elderly man doing an estimated 20kmh in a mobilty scooter held up traffic in the 100kmh zone on Nicklin Way Monday afternoon.
Police were called after several motorists reported almost colliding with the man, who was travelling south towards Caloundra.
Police were called to a similar incident on Friday, when it was said an elderly man was riding his mobility scooter along the same stretch of road.]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/scooter-driver-holds-up-traffic-in-100-zone-20130430-2ipzf.html#ixzz2RwHPBsIZ
[briefly
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 7:51 pm | PERMALINK
ML, in fairness you have to recall as well that the Rudd stimulus deliberately inflated spending in order to support demand. The budget this year is for outlays at 23.5% of GDP – a notable in reduction in real per capita spending.]
Are you saying the current spending is to stimulate the economy as we are in the GFC still?
At what point does the ALP take responsibility for its decisions and not blame the GFC?
[…On the face of it, the LNP want to create unemployment – to provoke a recession. Every elector in this country should know this. The LNP, by their words, intend to put people out of work. This is the election issue and nothing else.]
That is an ALP talking point at this stage. We don’t have the ALP budget yet so we cant determine what lies they have told yet.
Only after that can we assess the LNP response to the budget.
[Do you support the hardening of the line now?]
What hardening of the line? We do not have TPVs or tow-backs to sea either. There is only one party which both supports and actively talks these measures up, and it isn’t the party in govt.
As I’ve said before, I’d love it if we could implement a regional approach (even the UNHCR support this), but Mod Lib’s party prefers to do cruel, so there you have it.
The US Republicans are incredible:
[Arizona Governor Jan Brewer on Monday signed legislation forcing municipalities to resell firearms from gun buy-back programs rather than destroy them, closing a loophole in the conservative state’s laws.
Brewer, a Republican and staunch gun rights advocate, signed the bill preventing local governments from melting down the weapons obtained from these popular civic events.]
http://news.yahoo.com/arizona-law-forces-cities-resell-guns-buy-back-041122251.html
ML, you should stop being so disingenuous. It is beneath you. I’m saying that the GFC is in the process of making an encore performance. We can see this in the national accounts, the trade data, the ABS labour force stats, the budget outcomes, commodity markets, investment spending and the data from the US, EU, UK, Japan and China.
The Government has been running a tight fiscal policy and has just recently started to relax its settings. A combination of declining momentum in the export sector and tight fiscal settings is already affecting revenue. That is, parts of the economy are probably already contracting. This is the real message of the fiscal numbers.
The questions are –
Is this temporary, or is it a trend change?
If it is change in direction, how pronounced, how protracted and how pervasive will it become?
What should we do about it?
My views have been listed a hundred times. I wish the political parties would face up to this. Do they think this is a problem? How will they respond? Will they react by trashing the budget and blowing up the labour market? Or will we have yet more make-believe economics and fantasy politics?
These are pressing questions and voters are entitled to know where the parties stand before the election.
[Only after that can we assess the LNP response to the budget.]
Which hasn’t changed in 3 years. They had a $50b black hole going into the 2010 election, and this black hole has simply grown through attrition and increased spending commitments since then. By last count it is well over $100b today and growing every time Abbott opens his mouth at a doorstop.
We do not need the actual budget in order to assess how the opposition will respond to it. We’ve seen their ‘response’ now for the last 6 years.
confessions;
I just love your work! 🙂
You ask whether I supported it when “Labor came to govt and immediately dismantled the Liberals’ policies”?
Yet you recoil in horror when I ask whether you now support the hardening of the line! LOL 🙂
So the ALP softened the line when they came in, and now they are going some way towards the original LNP policies but that is in no way hardening the line.
And you still claim the ALP is better than the LNP in their asylum seeker policies, whereas you cannot name a LNP policy that has not been supported by the ALP.
Your lack of insight at your own positions is clear for all to see.
[The ALP is spending 50% than Howard, but they are spending it on a credit card while they are in debt, which is a whole different degree of stupid.]
ML I don’t mind the spend if it keeps the community working and helps the disadvantaged. The budget deficit has to be watched, of course, but I remember the trauma of older family members who suffered through the
Great Depression. Much better a $12bill deficit in a $1.5trill economy than wholesale unemployment.
BH:
There is nothing wrong with a deficit. Endless deficits with no plans to return to surplus along with additional plans to spend even more money is the problem.
At some stage, someone has to work out that you cannot keep spending more than you get. If it has to be the Liberal Party to come in and make the hard decisions, then so be it.
Mod Lib:
You can squeal and jump up and down all you like. At the end of the day it is you who both support and defend a party which actively states it will return to the cruel boat policies it previously had in govt. Yes ML, those policies the Liberals implemented which Labor dismantled when it came to govt.
Not only this, but it is your party which keeps Scott Morrison in his role after all the disgraceful things he says about boat people. They even commit those lies and distortions to public billboards.
Peter Costello….Can’t win, can’t challenge…can sell gold a little!
confessions:
Do you really not understand this? I can’t imagine it is so hard that you don’t get it.
Let me make it simple:
1. You claim the LNP asylum seeker policies are cruel
2. You cannot name a single LNP asylum seeker policy that ALP has not supported
Therefore the ALP has cruel policies, no?
If you tell me what part of this are you struggling with, perhaps I can help you.
Simon Crean, please.
Legal fundraisers are common for accused staring down self representation as an alternative
Others mortgage real property. The gap alleged murder case against Rivkin’s driver is an example.
What never seems to be questioned is why the defence case will cost x hundreds of thousands. Defendants can streamline cases if they so choose without inhibiting rights.
Already Thomson has lost money on his stay application. The bigger the fund the bigger the spend will be rest assured.
feeney
[
Simon Crean, please.]
Go away ? Feck off ?
poroti:
Funnily enough that appears to be what the voters are saying :devil:
modlib
[ Are you saying the current spending is to stimulate the economy as we are in the GFC still? ]
Is government spending causing consecutive interest rate rises?
Mod Lib:
Sorry, but you’re shifting the goalposts.
If you can’t see the difference between the stated and actual positions on boat arrivals of both Labor and Liberal, then your partisan hackery is blinding you to objective reality.
[briefly
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 7:16 pm | PERMALINK
my say and sr, I acknowledge your points. However, it also seems to me that these very important issues are not being raised. for mine, they must be brought to prominence if Labor is to have any chance at all.
There is an air of complete unreality about the train of political events at the moment.
We face a profound economic watershed – a once-in-a-century episode – and yet no-one seems to think it will make any difference to anything. Nothing could be further from the truth. We need some reality instead of the politics and economics of wishful thinking. Reality about jobs, incomes, housing, the budget, taxes…the social structure. I am just amazed at the studied complacency we see all around us.]
Thx for your reply, but you seem to have overlooked that Julia Gillard has twice now (once in January and yesterday) outlined exactly what it is facing our economy. And she agrees with you.
Just because she wasn’t about to divulge what was actually in the budget, doesn’t mean she hasn’t a clue about what to do.
So, Labour is indeed taking the bull by the horns.
Is it politically astute, or stupid?
Libs would say stupid. Labor would like to say astute.
Nevertheless, whatever anyone has to say, Gillard has told it just like it is.
I admire her for taking the time to understand economics. And to be able to enunciate untoward conditions, especially when Treasury et al did not predict the staying power of the AUD.
Abbott, on the other hand, can’t even articulate anything economic. He has no idea. Which doesn’t sit well (not Edith nor brothers) at all, considering he supposedly earned a Bachelors in economics.
We should all skip lunch tomorrow and donate the money to a worthy cause. I suggest the choice be between Craig Thomson’s appeal, and kids’ cancer. Hmm, difficult choice.
At some stage, someone has to work out that you cannot keep spending more than you get. If it has to be the Liberal Party to come in and make the hard decisions, then so be it.
It’s worked a treat in the UK and Queensland, hasn’t it?
Brendan O’Connor channels P Ruddock and K Andrews more convincingly than Chris Bowen – he sounded just like them -even more cruel – on the Manus Is disgrace today.
Admittedly written by a former Swan staffer, but still an interesting read:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4660360.html
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, April 30, 2013 at 8:30 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib:
Sorry, but you’re shifting the goalposts.
If you can’t see the difference between the stated and actual positions on boat arrivals of both Labor and Liberal, then your partisan hackery is blinding you to objective reality.]
:devil:
I see even the simplest way of putting the point is too hard for you. Fair enough.
The good news is that I will let you off the hook as I can see that it is distressing you to face up to your hypocrisy!
You can have a Get out of Jail card this time, but only because I am so nice 😉