Seat of the week: Hasluck

Held for the Liberals by the first ever indigenous member of the House of Representatives, this ultra-marginal eastern Perth seat has changed hands at every election since its creation in 2001. Labor desperately needs for it to do so again on September 14.

UPDATE (22/4/13): The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.

UPDATE 2 (22/4/13): The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.

The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s fifteenth seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the statewide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of three discrete population areas, with those in the north and south favouring Labor and the one in the centre leaning to the Liberals. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of seniors, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. In the south are the suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington, which are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Hasluck is held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt, whose win in 2010 made him the first ever self-identifying indigenous member of the House of Representatives. Wyatt was formerly a director of the Office of Aboriginal Health director and is the uncle of Ben Wyatt, an emerging figure in the state Labor Party. His win came at the expense of Labor’s Sharryn Jackson, who had won the seat in 2001, lost it in 2004 and recovered it again in 2007. Jackson became the seat’s inaugural member after defending a notional margin of 2.6% against a Liberal swing of 0.6%, before a further swing of 3.6% evicted her as Perth failed to take a shine to Mark Latham in 2004. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Stuart Henry, former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. Jackson served as Labor’s state president in the interim, and was reportedly urged by the LHMWU to seize the opportunity of Kim Beazley’s vacancy in Brand at the 2007 election. She instead declared herself set on recovering Hasluck, and was duly successful on the back of a 3.1% swing driven by a recovery of support for Labor in the electorate’s south following a slump in 2004. Redistribution cut Jackson’s 1.3% margin to 0.9% going into the 2010 election, and she was then seen off by an evenly distributed 1.4% swing in 2010

Labor’s new candidate for Hasluck is Adrian Evans, deputy state secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia. Evans’ preselection is the product of an increasing assertiveness within the state ALP on the part of the MUA, which according to one report accounts for a quarter of the state branch’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled its numbers from 150 to 850. The union first sought to flex its muscles when Evans ran for preselection for the state seat of Fremantle, which prior to the 2009 by-election defeat was held by LHMWU figurehead Jim McGinty. The LHMWU faction was able to secure preselection for its favoured candidate, UnionsWA secretary Simone McGurk, but it took a deal with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association to shore up her position in the face of the challenge from Evans. The quid pro quo included support from United Voice (as the LHMWU had become known) for the Senate ambitions of SDA state president Joe Bullock, who has duly gained top position on the Senate ticket at the expense of incumbent Louise Pratt. This has in turn caused friction between United Voice and Pratt’s AMWU sub-faction of the Left, with which the MUA is aligned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,831 comments on “Seat of the week: Hasluck”

Comments Page 34 of 37
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  1. PvO and crew being very positive re the PM’s effort. As one just pointed out ZERO questions about the python squeezing wrecking ball carbon “tax”.

  2. News Ltd mob just realised that there were no questions on the Carbon Tax, it is a non issue.

    How’s the referendum going Tony?

  7. [Justin Barbour ‏@justinbarbour 13m
    That’s awkward. RT @sspencer_63: Did someone say “unscripted”? http://bit.ly/15yC7no ]

    Appeared on Twitter. Obvious spamming by Libs.
    “Good morning. Did you get your words for the day?”

  9. [News Ltd mob just realised that there were no questions on the Carbon Tax, it is a non issue.]

    And while that woman was saying that it was interesting there were no questions about the carbon tax they had a big sticker across the bottom proclaiming that questions were asked on yada yada yada, carbon tax, NBN

  10. Got home to find a message from my sister, saying my mother was in hospital and could I find out why (my sister, who lives with her, is on holidays in Queensland).

    Lots of failed attempts to reach the Emergency Department, but she’s OK, they’re running tests and she’ll be there at least overnight.

    My sister says it sounds like a panic attack (caused by her going on holiday!) so hopefully that’s what it is.

  12. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 6:50 pm | PERMALINK
    I’m gonna call a 53-47 Newspoll.]

    It had better move towards Labor after three very bad weeks for Libs. If it does not, well the answer is simple and most in Labor chose to ignore the simple answer to Labors issues

  16. Its a shame the legislation made it impossible for Quentin to resume his position, but Peacock is a great choice.

    Another bit of Howard bastardry overturned.

  17. Mat Peacock Is going to be busy. Starting with guidelines for staff and how robust they can be in presenting facts. A question arising from the Jon Faine interview

  20. Does seem to be some small move back towards Labor but they are still grossly uncompetitive and the clock is running down. Nothing to get remotely excited about at this stage. If it gets back to regular 52-48s or closer then it’s a contest of some kind but at the moment it’s just slightly lighter or darker shades of thrashing.

    Note the Nielsen wasn’t the only 57 last week, the ReachTEL was a 57 as well though benchmarking that is difficult (could maybe have a go through state polls but probably more trouble than it’s worth.)

  24. [Among the sports to receive increases are sailing ($900,000 extra), canoeing ($620,000 a year), water polo ($550,000), rowing ($325,000), triathlon ($150,000), diving ($150,000) and shooting ($100,000).

    But Australia’s two biggest Olympic sports – swimming and athletics – have seen their funding cut.

    Swimming’s annual allocation of $8.1 million for 2013-14 represents a 5.8 per cent drop, while Athletics Australia’s high-performance funding was cut by 3.8 per cent.]

    Maybe letting stilnox rool was not a smart move swimming guys?

  25. Well i dont think many on PB will ever see a Labor Surplus….. The Libs will vote for SSM before the next Labor Surplus lol.

  26. [If Newspoll comes in around trend then it’s likely to be 55/54 to 46/45.]

    That a fair call. About a 2% swing to the ALP in April.

  27. Emily ‏@ThatEmilyLady 4m
    @harrypusspuss @randlight Skeletor and The Blob!
    View conversation
    George Bludger ‏@GeorgeBludger 5m
    “@randlight: OMG look at this
    pic.twitter.com/j6TbnGLQtX” <= the would-be poet and her muse
    View photo Reply Retweet Favorite More
    Deb ‏@harrypusspuss 5m
    @randlight Tweedle Dum and Fat Bastard's sister

    Some of the replies I have had SPROCKET to your pic and still coming in

    sprocket_
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 7:18 pm | PERMALINK
    And haven’t these 2 got something to celebrate. The majority of Australians beholden to lies spun through their publishing organs.

    http://twitter.com/JoeHockey_MP/status/326262771165581312/photo/1

  28. [Well i dont think many on PB will ever see a Labor Surplus….. The Libs will vote for SSM before the next Labor Surplus lol.]

    Why have a surplus rummie? How many did Menzies have?

  35. ruawake @ 1652

    News Ltd mob just realised that there were no questions on the Carbon Tax, it is a non issue.

    In your dreams ruawake. It will feature front, centre & back in the election.

    Also in the budget session. Hint: European ETS; Labors $7 Billion black hole.

  38. [Also in the budget session. Hint: European ETS; Labors $7 Billion black hole.]

    Holy crapola, the magnetized one thinks that revenue will suddenly change for Joe Hockey. The budget figures are the starting point for all policies.

    Including the $3.5 billion Abbott needs to fund his PPL, the $3 billion to index Defence superannuation, the $4 billion for Direct Action.

    How that for a lazy $10 billion to be found from somewhere?

  41. ruawake @ 1678

    Why have a surplus rummie? How many did Menzies have?

    Why have a surplus? I don’t know? Ask Swan & Gillard

    Gillard on the ABC’s AM, May 11, 2011:

    It is important for families at this time that the government does not add to inflationary pressures in the economy. That’s why it’s vital to get the budget back into surplus and back into the black. That’s what this budget has done.

    That is the best thing we can do to help families with cost of living pressures – not add to inflationary pressures and in this budget we don’t.

    Swan in his budget speech on May 10, 2011:

    WE’LL be back in the black by 2012-13, on time, as promised. The alternative – meandering back to surplus – would compound the pressures in our economy and push up the cost of living for pensioners and working people.

    Dozens more where these came from; right up to last XMas.

  43. [Dozens more where these came from; right up to last XMas.]

    So what. If you wish to talk about the past be my guest. Your mob has not won a federal election since 2004, don’t get too cocky.

    I love the smell of hubris in the morning. 😆

  44. to paraphrase Chrissie Amphlett

    “uou gotta be desperate, you gotta be pretty low…”

    [Steve Price ‏@StevePriceMedia 22s
    Tonight @2GB873, Oppn leader @TonyAbbottMHR coming up at 8:20. If not near a radio, jump online http://www.2gb.com #auspol
    Retweeted by 2GB 873]

  45. ruawake @ 1678

    Holy crapola, the magnetized one thinks that revenue will suddenly change for Joe Hockey. The budget figures are the starting point for all policies.

    Including the $3.5 billion Abbott needs to fund his PPL

    No they will scrape the Carbon Tax & all spending/compensation attached to it (other than loss of revenue attached to increasing the compulsory Super 9% to 12%). You haven’t been paying attention.

    And the PPL will be funded by a 1.5% Tax on larger companies, not government. The impact of this will be positive on the government bottom line because the current Lab scheme will be abolished.

  49. poroti,

    Very nice.

    Stop all the clocks.

    Disconnect all the phones.

    Don’t feed the dog a juicy bone.

    …

  50. [poroti
    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 7:55 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Who says the Scots are crazy ?

    The Penguin and The Piper

    In 1902 William Bruce, a Scottish explorer led an expedition to the Antarctic. During their time there they decided to play the bagpipes to a emperor penguin to see what would happen…based on real events!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyRMPR5HGj4
    .
    In 2010

    The Piper And The Penguin (Highland Gathering Peine 2010)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbblsREKbrI

    Watched the first one I loved the trembling legs in the last bit, is there any penguins in Iceland maybe I might see some there?????
    Off to see the next one love these bagpipe You tube 🙂

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