The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, who appear to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated with results from Galaxy, Morgan and Essential (there was also last night’s ReachTEL poll for Channel Seven, but I haven’t included this as I don’t yet have enough data for ReachTEL to determine bias and accuracy weightings). Nielsen’s breakdowns have also allowed for the state relativities to be revised.
Speaking of which, I thought it might be illuminating to plot how the mainland states have been tracking relative to the national polling since the 2010 election. The following charts do so with reference to Labor’s two-party vote. Keep in mind that this measures the states’ deviance from the national result, and not simply the level of Labor support – so a flat line tells us not that support for Labor in that state has been steady, but that the ups and downs have closely matched the national results (as they usually do).
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The most obvious point to emerge is that Queensland is the odd man out on account of its volatile trendline. This relates to the “smooth” function displayed at the top left of each chart, reflecting the smoothness of the line which most meaningfully represents the scattered data points (in the estimation of my stats program, going off something called the AICc criterion). Where the trend is either consistent or non-existent, as it is for the other four states, the smoothing parameter is high and the line fairly straight. But where there is a distinct pattern to the variation, as in the case of Queensland, the number lowers to produce a line variable enough to follow the trend (different smoothing parameters also explain why the Coalition’s primary vote trendline on BludgerTrack is smoother than Labor’s).
The Queensland exception is down to a fairly clear 3% sag for Labor from March to July 2012, which happens to be coincide with the immediate aftermath of their devastating state election defeat. This seems to suggest that temporary static from Queensland state politics added over half a point to the Coalition blowout in the national result at this time, which can be clearly observed on BludgerTrack. It should be noted that this week’s Nielsen result is the only data point for Queensland since last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and it’s solidly lower than anything recorded since November. BludgerTrack will need more than one 350-sample result before it draws any conclusions, but the Nielsen result may point to a downturn the Queensland trendline is yet to catch up with.
Something similar may also be happening in South Australia, where Labor’s downward turn since late last year would be much sharper with a lower smoothing parameter. If forthcoming results for this state remain poor for Labor, their already weak projection will deteriorate fairly rapidly.
Other news:
• Barnaby Joyce had a clear 150-10 win over local IT businessman David Gregory in the Nationals preselection for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England, conducted after the withdrawal of Richard Torbay. The LNP will now have to choose a (presumably Nationals-aligned) candidate to fill Joyce’s casual Senate vacancy when he resigns to the contest the election, with the winner to serve out the remainder of a Senate term that will end in mid-2017.
• WA Labor has determined the order of its Senate election ticket, the top two positions going to Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Assocation state president Joe Bullock and incumbent Louise Pratt, in that order. Bullock takes the seat designated for the SDA from the man he succeeded as the union’s state secretary, Mark Bishop, who bowed out of the race on Monday in recognition that he faced certain defeat. Bullock’s success in securing the top position was the contentious fruit of an arrangement between the Right faction SDA and the largest Left union, United Voice, which secured the state lower house seat of Fremantle for United Voice faction member Simone McGurk at the expense of Adrian Evans of the insurgent Maritime Union of Australia. Pratt’s demotion from top of the ticket in 2007 is more than symbolic, as there are fears Labor’s vote in WA is so weak it can’t be guaranteed a second seat. Former state upper house MP Jon Ford, who is associated with the United Voice’s main Left rival, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, complained that the SDA-United Voice deal very nearly led to Pratt being excluded altogether.
• Also determined by the Labor state executive was the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Evans, which will stay in the United Voice fold by going to Sue Lines, a WA-raised but Sydney-based official with the union.
• Labor’s state executive also chose candidates for four lower house seats, three of which would be winnable under normal circumstances. Hasluck will be contested the aforementioned Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850. There will be more on Hasluck in Friday’s Seat of the Week. The other candidates are lawyer Tristan Cockman in Cowan, Victoria Park deputy mayor John Bissett in Swan and, in the safely conservative regional seat of Durack, Fitzroy Crossing musician and party activist Daron Keogh.
• The Liberals have a new candidate for the Melbourne hinterland seat of McEwen after their initial nominee, Ben Collier, withdrew due to “unforeseen family circumstances”. The party’s administrative committee unanimously chose as his successor Donna Petrovich, a member of the state upper house for Northern Victoria region and former mayor of Macedon Ranges. Sue Hewitt of the Northern Weekly was able to confirm that ReachTEL had earlier conducted a poll of the electorate on behalf of an undisclosed client gauging name recognition for Collier and Petrovich. Petrovich will relinquish her seat in the upper house on June 30.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Liberal internal polling has them leading 56-44 in the Labor-held Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, with the primary votes at 29% for Labor’s Anna Burke and 48% for the Liberal candidate in Chisholm, and 32% for Alan Griffin against 48% for the Liberals in Bruce.
• Former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad has won preselection to replace retiring Nationals member John Forrest in Mallee. The other candidates were Swan Hill councillor Michael Adamson, Buloke mayor Reid Mather, Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie and Mildura resident Anne Webster. Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank was a late withdrawal. The Liberals are yet to determine whether they will field a candidate.
ruawake@1487
[PvO now on 3AW confirms Abbott’s office approached him to keep Roberts story quiet]
Hey wot de flip, freedom of the press and all that rot from Abbotts office was a smokescreen. I is shocked. 😆
[1446
Compact Crank
WWP @1441 – the fall in revenue and hence tax to GDP ratio under the ALP us not a result of them reducing taxes – it is a result of lower profits – a less succesful economy.]
It is a direct consequence of the failed economic management of the LNP, who abjectly failed to create the right investment framework while they last held office.
They idled while the terms of trade soared, and they lament now as they fall. The LNP are do-nothing, know-nothing bludgers, for whom economic policy consists of telling lies and hoping for the best.
[William Field @williamf51 12m
Van Onselen now on 3AW confirms Abbott’s office approached him with view of keeping Roberts story quiet #auspol]
[1497
Compact Crank
…. then came along the GFC – a crisis in the debt markets and one of the reasons came through it in better shape than most is because of the quality of Australia’s private sector debt. Our banks are well capitalised, profitable and well run.]
The only reason the banks have had reasonable access to markets for most of the last few years is because they have benefited from either explicit or implicit Commonwealth guarantees. Ask S&P or Fitch.
The banks were vastly over-reliant on foreign wholesale funding and have falling over themselves to repay it, a capital flow enabled by the willingness of the Commonwealth to increase its borrowing.
Had the Commonwealth – led by the Treasurer – not done so, we would have experienced the mother of all credit liquidations in this economy, and the worst crash since 1890.
The Residential Mortgage Backed Security market still operates with an implied Commonwealth Guarantee. So much for bank solvency. It is an artifact of Commonwealth policy and nothing else.
Jackol @1494 – The Libs are still not in a Coalition. They not only relied on the Nats but a couple of independents as well.
In fact given they weren’t in a Coalition with the Nats and didn’t even have a signed agreement like the Greens and ALP did until a few weeks ago Federally so they have had a harder parliament to deal with than Gillard.
BREAKING NEWS! ONE MARATHON BOMBING SUSPECT CAUGHT. NOW – MAJOR GUN BATTLE AT A HOUSE IN MOUNT AUBURN. #911BUFF
Cranky just creamed himself over the state of Australian banks, has he heard of the 6 then 4 pillar policy.
We have strong banks because of Keating, Costello was happy to allow a foreign takeover of the big 4.
Swan in 2008 reaffirmed the 4 pillars.
The strength of banks is despite the L-NP not thanks to them.
dave @1501 – well, sounds like he got drunk and made a fool of himself – if that is the case then that is a completely different discussion.
CC –
Poppycock.
Apart from driving a better deal to form government, the Nats in WA have never looked like voting against the government.
It’s funny that a Liberal+National majority anywhere else is a solid majority, but you claim in WA it was a minority government that had to fight every vote down to the wire for its survival.
At least try to make an argument CC.
This is called ‘corruption’. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/18/pro-gun-groups-donated-senators
The US Senate is corrupt.
ruawake @1502 – what has that got to do with legislative freedom of the press?
[ruawake @1502 – what has that got to do with legislative freedom of the press?]
Who cares about freedom of the press when you can bribe journalists?
[The states have shunned Labor’s Gonski school funding reforms, with Julia Gillard failing to bring a single premier into line on her $14.5 billion propsal at the Council of Australian Governments meeting in Canberra today.]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/4/19/national-affairs/gillard-fails-secure-state-support-gonski?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=266346&utm_campaign=pm&modapt=
Murdoch and his tabloid the New York Post (editor Col Allen) does it again:
[ A high school student whose photograph appeared on the front page of a major US newspaper as a person investigators were trying to identify in connection with the Boston Marathon bombings said he was shocked to find himself singled out.
The 17-year-old student, originally from Morocco, said he went to police to clear his name after he found his image and that of another man, believed to be his coach, plastered on the front page of the New York Post under the words: “BAG MEN: Feds seek these two pictured at Boston Marathon.”
Investigators have since cleared the pair of any involvement in the blasts that killed three people and injured about 175.
The Massachusetts teen, who is on his high school’s athletics team, said he had originally wanted to run in the marathon but when he couldn’t, he decided to watch the race instead.
In the paper, his face and that of the second man were circled in red as they stood among spectators near the marathon’s finish line.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/teen-wrongly-identified-as-person-connected-with-boston-marathon-blasts-20130419-2i3zb.html#ixzz2QtCqm300
Gonski is a dead letter now, it seems.
I see the great negotiator Julia had completely stuffed the Gonski negotiation. She couldn’t even get the ALP states to agree with her
The fact is not one single state believe that she was going to decrease funding on education, if they do not sign up to Gonski.
Do anyone in here thinks Julia was ever going to reduce funding for Education 3 months before an election?
There will be a backdown from Julia in the next few week and it could have been prevented
from what abbott says, his advisor has, for ‘completely unacceptable’ behaviour, been ‘demoted’ with no reduction in pay nor change in duties. his job title has been changed. But only after they tried to bribe PvO to keep quiet.
the only person in abbott’s office who has told the truth in the whole affair is the advisor – abbott will ‘cut the throat’ of any organisation that does not share his neo-con fanaticism. he has already indicated the climate change department and commission will be gone (but somehow Direct (in)Action will be implemented) – he needs to asked who else will get their throat cut as he pursues his cultural agenda – I need to re-read some of Bob Santamaria’s ravings in my Dad’s old copies of News Weekly, but from memory those targeted will include:
– working women (they were the cause of high unemployment and a permissive society)
– student unions
– ‘left wing’ teachers and lecturers
– any organisation advising women on contraception
– aboriginal organisations (ah ha!)
– multicultural organisations
– ABC
– left wing church organisations (also known as charities and nuns)
– environmentalists (ah ha!)
– left wing unions
– Labor
– public libraries spreading filth and ‘nihlism’ (also known as agnosticism/atheism, often also called ‘communism’)
– China
– Viet Nam
– black people generally
– international financiers (protocols of Zion, anybody?)
– have I forgotten anything
This guy was and is Abbott’s absolute hero.
Abbott’s tactics will include:
– surprise
– fear
– and almost fanatical devotion to the Pope (except when the Pope acknowledges the need for urgent action on Climate Change or the inherent evils and injustices of unfettered capitalism and concentration of wealth and power)
[Gonski is a dead letter now, it seems.]
Rubbish the date for acceptance has always been June 30th. School funding has a long way to run.
Compact Crank@1509
Actually, it’s always been the same discussion. The only question was one of context. In this case, you kept making excuses for him on the assumption of some context that suited you.
e.g. that
a) he’s used to being abused
b) he must have provoked it
BREAKING: Two more of Tony Abbott’s AFHP associates served by Ettridge’s lawyers today. Details on IA shortly.
I’m not sure what all the crowing about COAG not coming to a decision re: Gonski is all about.
It sounds, from that Business Spectator article, that the situation today is basically identical to the situation yesterday.
ie WA outright hostile
Queensland muttering about strings
NSW and Vic making positive noises
Tas, ACT, SA on board but not signing anything yet
I think the non-result today says more about the dysfunctionality of the COAG process than anything else.
[BREAKING: Two more of Tony Abbott’s AFHP associates served by Ettridge’s lawyers today. Details on IA shortly.]
Not Costello’s father in law?
Not lawyers. Ettridge does not have any. Process servers.
Dennis Napthine Vic State Premier says he needs more time re Gonski funding reforms
cc can duck and weave as much as he wants, but he and bbp tried every trick in the book to deflect and put responsibility elsewhere, as follows –
[- get a full transcript
– 2 sides to every story.
– he was provoked
– you don’t do that for no good reason.
– I wonder how ALP Staffers and Politcians talk
– PvO has a personal axe to grind with this guy
– Penfolds is not a Public Servant.
– PoV’s little venture into investigative journalism over such a petty matter
– PvO hardly rates as a friend of the Coalition
– If PvO wants to treat his sources this way then he’ll reap what he sews.]
You got it wrong cranky – big time.
[It sounds, from that Business Spectator article, that the situation today is basically identical to the situation yesterday.]
I think it was Paul Bongiourno who stated that the ALP want to keep school funding front and centre in the media for as long as possible.
briefly@1516
So the PM has stick to beat the tories over the head come the election.
tories -Not interested in the education of Australian children.
[Not lawyers. Ettridge does not have any. Process servers.]
I think you are wrong Shellbell, he does have a pro bono legal team.
briefly:
[Gonski is a dead letter now, it seems.]
On balance, it’s probably for the best. Gonski himself wasn’t all that keen on it and there was an awful lot of money headed in the direction of wealthy private schools. If Abbott does get in, and had Gonski to work with, then he would undoubtedly have perverted its operation still further to fund the wealthiest private schools even more.
It’s also not as if a lot more Federal money was being put in either — certainly not an extra $6bn per annum.
Maybe the next time the ALP wins power it can cme up with a reform that really is focused on supplying resources to places where there is unmet need — and doing that without fiddling with the trajectory of per student funding in the tertiary sector.
That will probably have to await a Damascene conversion from surplus fetishism and also their love of big defence toys, fossil fuel subsidies, offshore prisons for asylum seekers and concessional mining tax arrangements for rightwing spivs. I’ll be looking forward to that one.
rua
His statement of claim says no solicitor and no lawyer would have let the claim go forward in the form it appears.
Arrests of suspects in Boston.
oh dear, Rolf Harris arrested by police as allegations of sexual offences. What’s next. Santa is not real
For those interested Pvo coming up in next couple minutes – here
http://video.news.com.au/1547643030/Live-broadcast-from-Sky-News
MARATHON BOMBING SUSPECTS:
1- MIKE MULIGETA.
2- SUNIL TRIPATHI WHO WAS REPORTED MISSING IN MARCH. #911BUFF
Under the UK powers of arrest, it is often unclear whether the arrest is for charging or just for questioning.
On now!
dave,
Peta will be interested.
Shellbell
He may not have had legal representation in early March, my mail is he now does. Oh and the only statement of claim on the public record is a DRAFT/DRAFT.
dave @1527
Now we have the facts – he was pissed and making a dickhead of himself.
You play – you pay.
Lucky he didn’t start a riot.
Fran
I’m sorry I missed your earlier post regarding our non-wager. Rather than write 3 pages on the topic you could have just crossed out the word “back” (in wife’s pocket) and wasted less ink, or key-strokes.
I didn’t pass my comments through the Greens/ExtremeLeft new PC Thesaurus beforehand otherwise it would have no doubt corrected me. The fact is that I live on what my wife gives me, so is that ok in PC-Greenspeak?
Thank you also for clarifyimg your position re Lee Rhiannon, namely that you are in bed with her (metaphorically speaking of course).
[Lucky he didn’t start a riot.]
That’s an Abbott speciality. He must have got it from Thatcher.
[The fact is that I live on what my wife gives me, so is that ok in PC-Greenspeak?]
Toy Boy?
Rua
The grub Michael Smith linked this one after his interview with Ettridge on Tuesday No draft on page one and no solicitor on last page
http://michaelsmithnews.typepad.com/files/supreme-court-application-abbott.doc
PvO very critical of Abbott. Don’t like the other three so I’m not watching the rest.
Compact Crank@1541
CC – Remind me – how many times did I suggest we do just that, ie get the facts – yet you dished out abuse and nonsense – straight out of the ipa method of ‘conduct’.
You were dead wrong – all you wanted to do cover his arse and point the finger at others.
Not a good week for the Libs, getting worse by the hour.
[Coalition $90 billion broadband claims shredded
The assumptions underpinning the Coalition’s costing of Labor’s NBN have today been torn to shreds at the Joint Committee for the National Broadband Network.
“The robustness of NBN Co’s Corporate Plan, which the Government had independently verified by KPMG and Greenhill Caliburn, has been reaffirmed again today,” the Minister for Finance and Deregulation, Senator Penny Wong, said.
“Mike Quigley, CEO of NBN Co, has demonstrated that the NBN Co Corporate Plan is sound and that the Coalition assumptions about the cost of the project are wrong.”
The Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, Senator Stephen Conroy, said: “In evidence given to the committee, Mr Quigley demonstrated that:
•The actual cost of building the NBN to each home and business is between $2,200-2,500 per premise, not $3,600 per premise as claimed in Mr Turnbull’s policy document.
•NBN wholesale prices will fall in real terms, not triple as claimed in Mr Turnbull’s policy document.
•The NBN remains on track to be completed by 2021, not 2025 as claimed in Mr Turnbull’s policy document.
“This evidence proves that the assumptions underpinning the Coalition’s costing of Labor’s NBN are a fraud.
“If Mr Turnbull had any credibility at all, he would admit that he has based his costing on a lie.
“He should also immediately stop misleading the public about the prices people pay for the NBN now and what people will pay in the future.
“If he doesn’t, it’s just another sign that Mr Turnbull will say anything to hide the fact that his plan would leave Australia with the broadband equivalent of the Sydney Harbour Bridge with only one lane.”
Date: 19 April 2013
Contact: Adam Sims 0408 258 457]
https://mobile.twitter.com/mikemulugeta/tweets
One of the alleged bombers. Hates Justin Bieber. Loves Eminem
Ruawake 1544
[Toy Boy]
At my age? Thank you.
I really didn’t want to complicate Fran’s use of the PC-Greenspeak thesaurus, in case it malfunctioned from overuse, but in fact I give my wife everything and she gives me back what she can spare. Gee that’ll send the Thesaurus into meltdown now.