BludgerTrack: 55.4-44.6 to Coalition

Nielsen captured headlines by showing the Labor primary vote slipping below 30%, but this week’s poll aggregate shows a continuation of Labor’s slight improving trend.

The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, who appear to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated with results from Galaxy, Morgan and Essential (there was also last night’s ReachTEL poll for Channel Seven, but I haven’t included this as I don’t yet have enough data for ReachTEL to determine bias and accuracy weightings). Nielsen’s breakdowns have also allowed for the state relativities to be revised.

Speaking of which, I thought it might be illuminating to plot how the mainland states have been tracking relative to the national polling since the 2010 election. The following charts do so with reference to Labor’s two-party vote. Keep in mind that this measures the states’ deviance from the national result, and not simply the level of Labor support – so a flat line tells us not that support for Labor in that state has been steady, but that the ups and downs have closely matched the national results (as they usually do).

The most obvious point to emerge is that Queensland is the odd man out on account of its volatile trendline. This relates to the “smooth” function displayed at the top left of each chart, reflecting the smoothness of the line which most meaningfully represents the scattered data points (in the estimation of my stats program, going off something called the AICc criterion). Where the trend is either consistent or non-existent, as it is for the other four states, the smoothing parameter is high and the line fairly straight. But where there is a distinct pattern to the variation, as in the case of Queensland, the number lowers to produce a line variable enough to follow the trend (different smoothing parameters also explain why the Coalition’s primary vote trendline on BludgerTrack is smoother than Labor’s).

The Queensland exception is down to a fairly clear 3% sag for Labor from March to July 2012, which happens to be coincide with the immediate aftermath of their devastating state election defeat. This seems to suggest that temporary static from Queensland state politics added over half a point to the Coalition blowout in the national result at this time, which can be clearly observed on BludgerTrack. It should be noted that this week’s Nielsen result is the only data point for Queensland since last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and it’s solidly lower than anything recorded since November. BludgerTrack will need more than one 350-sample result before it draws any conclusions, but the Nielsen result may point to a downturn the Queensland trendline is yet to catch up with.

Something similar may also be happening in South Australia, where Labor’s downward turn since late last year would be much sharper with a lower smoothing parameter. If forthcoming results for this state remain poor for Labor, their already weak projection will deteriorate fairly rapidly.

Other news:

• Barnaby Joyce had a clear 150-10 win over local IT businessman David Gregory in the Nationals preselection for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England, conducted after the withdrawal of Richard Torbay. The LNP will now have to choose a (presumably Nationals-aligned) candidate to fill Joyce’s casual Senate vacancy when he resigns to the contest the election, with the winner to serve out the remainder of a Senate term that will end in mid-2017.

• WA Labor has determined the order of its Senate election ticket, the top two positions going to Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Assocation state president Joe Bullock and incumbent Louise Pratt, in that order. Bullock takes the seat designated for the SDA from the man he succeeded as the union’s state secretary, Mark Bishop, who bowed out of the race on Monday in recognition that he faced certain defeat. Bullock’s success in securing the top position was the contentious fruit of an arrangement between the Right faction SDA and the largest Left union, United Voice, which secured the state lower house seat of Fremantle for United Voice faction member Simone McGurk at the expense of Adrian Evans of the insurgent Maritime Union of Australia. Pratt’s demotion from top of the ticket in 2007 is more than symbolic, as there are fears Labor’s vote in WA is so weak it can’t be guaranteed a second seat. Former state upper house MP Jon Ford, who is associated with the United Voice’s main Left rival, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, complained that the SDA-United Voice deal very nearly led to Pratt being excluded altogether.

• Also determined by the Labor state executive was the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Evans, which will stay in the United Voice fold by going to Sue Lines, a WA-raised but Sydney-based official with the union.

• Labor’s state executive also chose candidates for four lower house seats, three of which would be winnable under normal circumstances. Hasluck will be contested the aforementioned Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850. There will be more on Hasluck in Friday’s Seat of the Week. The other candidates are lawyer Tristan Cockman in Cowan, Victoria Park deputy mayor John Bissett in Swan and, in the safely conservative regional seat of Durack, Fitzroy Crossing musician and party activist Daron Keogh.

• The Liberals have a new candidate for the Melbourne hinterland seat of McEwen after their initial nominee, Ben Collier, withdrew due to “unforeseen family circumstances”. The party’s administrative committee unanimously chose as his successor Donna Petrovich, a member of the state upper house for Northern Victoria region and former mayor of Macedon Ranges. Sue Hewitt of the Northern Weekly was able to confirm that ReachTEL had earlier conducted a poll of the electorate on behalf of an undisclosed client gauging name recognition for Collier and Petrovich. Petrovich will relinquish her seat in the upper house on June 30.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Liberal internal polling has them leading 56-44 in the Labor-held Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, with the primary votes at 29% for Labor’s Anna Burke and 48% for the Liberal candidate in Chisholm, and 32% for Alan Griffin against 48% for the Liberals in Bruce.

• Former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad has won preselection to replace retiring Nationals member John Forrest in Mallee. The other candidates were Swan Hill councillor Michael Adamson, Buloke mayor Reid Mather, Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie and Mildura resident Anne Webster. Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank was a late withdrawal. The Liberals are yet to determine whether they will field a candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.4-44.6 to Coalition”

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  2. Another interesting observation about New Media from Barry Ritholtz –

    [ Twitter is the New Tape

    I first read the news about yesterday’s Boston Marathon bomb attack on Twitter.

    It was a full 15-20 minutes before CNN reported it on Cable, and probably 35 minutes before any major media had a story online.

    Boston.com was the first outlet I saw to report on this.

    Meanwhile, Twitter had photos, video, running real-time commentary.

    I recall something similar occurred with the OBL assassination.

    All of this raises a very interesting question: Is Twitter the new tape? Has it replaced newswire services, Dow Jones, AP, etc? ]

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/twitter-is-the-new-tape-discuss/

  3. Dont know about running, I think he is about to go looking for his bike.

    He is not very comfortable answering questions about the one nation thing

  5. Mick77@34

    Let’s be reasonable here. Christine Milne is a very compassionate person and means what she says.

    The Lee Rhiannons and many other mainland watermelons (some of whom, like Lee, aren’t even very green on the outside) are another matter altogether. IMO they are a blight on our polity.

    There is a growing view inside the Tassie Green movement that their role in the establishment of a national party was a mistake. I tend to agree.

  6. A little bit of perspective for anyone thinking the NBN is expensive.
    [We have incessantly heard about the $37 billion, or $90 billion, or whatever random number of billions you like, as the cost of the NBN. Whatever the number is, it is likely to be less than the amount being invested in Australia’s electricity distribution network over the same period.

    The industry is investing billions in smart grids, a range of technologies that allow electricity to be distributed much more cost effectively. Smart grids enable smart meters (known in the industry as AMI, or advanced metering infrastructure), load monitoring, fault detection and other technologies that are revolutionising energy distribution around the world.]
    The whole article is quite interesting and deals with what is going on in the Electricity Industry. Of course the companies in the industry will extensively use the NBN.

    The smart grid is about to get a lot smarter

  7. confessions
    [I have to agree with dave. I’d also throw into the mix the low trust ratings journalists have.]

    Journos probably aren’t trusted because again and again they are found to have omitted or twisted facts or simply made them up to make a better story to sell papers or push a political view. But that doesn’t mean that the subjects covered heavily aren’t the ones that the masses want. Media are businesses and a lot of money is at stake in what they cover and how they cover it. I don’t believe they can be so disconnected from the public or not do the research as to get it badly wrong in what people want covered.

    It’s human nature for people to be most interested in countries that are ethnically, culturally and politically the closest to ours. Apart from that, most of us know Boston and the Boston marathon a lot better than anywhere in Syria and Iraq, and we had runners in the race and spectators on the street. Such as event is also very rare in the US, whereas bombings in Iraq and Syria are commonplace.

  8. [Betty Taylor ‏@bettsie2u 13m
    Abbott now on #ABC24 He says because of Pauline Hanson he has been working to raise the integrity of politicians ..ha ha ]

    Is this the statement of a pathological liar, or someone who sees himself as perfect?

  13. As others have similarly said, this court case is a badge of honour for Abbott, being targeted by the former One Nation. You couldn’t buy that sort of respectability.

  14. Lizzie,

    Can you think of any reason why it’s taken fifteen years for Ettridge to bring this action on?

    Why the delay?

    This will be chucked out at the earliest opportunity.

  15. Mick77@63


    As others have similarly said, this court case is a badge of honour for Abbott, being targeted by the former One Nation. You couldn’t buy that sort of respectability.

    No matter how disgusting ON were, you can’t resort to corrupt activity to get rid off them

  16. Mick

    Yeah the man wanting to be PM overriding people’s rights for a political goal is such a look of respectability.

    I may hate what Pauline Hanson stood for and wanted her political career to end.

    However not how Abbott did it. It is just more evidence he is a grub. Respectable does not come into it.

  17. The only problem with Abbott’s statement is that Hanson was ultimately found to be Not Guilty.

    She did time for a trumped-up offence that Abbott was responsible for promoting.

  18. The only problem with Abbotts self-installed halo as a defender of decency in politics is that Hanson was ultimately found to be Not Guilty.

    She did jail time because of Abbott.

  19. Yesiree Bob

    “No matter how disgusting ON were, you can’t resort to corrupt activity to get rid off them”

    Your evidence???

  23. As BK said earlier, a vision of Howard was not a good start to my day.

    The worst bit was when he “laughed” at Philip Williams question about his plans for his funeral, ashes, etc. Bit of a cheeky question, perhaps, but the artificial “Uh, uh, uh” as his eyes darted around the room brought back all my disdain for his socially inept persona.

    OH remarked that Abbott has a similar artificial laugh when embarrassed.

  25. I suppose we’ll have to see what comes out of the Ettridge case to see if Tony Abbott has done anything underhanded or illegal in his efforts to damage One Nation, and who else was involved. I think we can be pretty sure that if anything damaging to Tony Abbott or other Coalition figures does come out, it will be buried on the bottom of page 19.

    By the way, what happened with allegations regarding Tony Abbott having weekly meetings at News Limited to coordinate strategies? There does seem to be some cooperation in the background, e.g. the coordination of the alleged $90 billion cost of the government’s NBN and the Coalition’s broadband policy.

  27. [ I don’t believe they can be so disconnected from the public or not do the research as to get it badly wrong in what people want covered. ]

    Even in Australia’s relatively small media industries there are a range of examples to the contrary –

    – Commercial TV getting programming decisions totally wrong to the point such is threatening the viability of those businesses which are already in downward spirals.

    Channel 10 with young murdoch is a good example.

    – Kerry Stokes is on the record suggesting his stations may even drop serious news coverage on the basis on costs and even though the evening news has traditionally been used as a ‘hook’ to get viewers to watch that night commercials even if occasionally interrupted by so called programing.

    – Channel 9 was loaded up with debt it couldn’t service and because viewers had departed.

    – Ratings are dropping in Sydney for a range of radio stations – shock jocks and what I refer to as ‘smart-arse’ formats.

    – Print is sinking and digging deeper furiously – with broken businesses models and distrusted.

    Fairfax is a good example where they would do almost anything to figure out what people want AND get them to pay for it – but not much sign that anything is working for them.

    Interesting DT and the Hun doing the best and still making money as most readers start at the back – the sports section. Sports is the big important read for many in the DT.

    On ABC, 730 has pulled out of its downward spiral for the time being thanks to Leigh Sales, no thanks to ulhmann.

    Technological change, distrust etc – but mainly the media really are not delivery what people want and they are getting it elsewhere.

  28. Steve777, Considering that the LNP’s Fraudband Policy was released at Fox Studios, it’s pretty fair to assume that it is a policy designed to enrichen Murdochs business interests. To the detriment of everyone else

  30. PTMD @ 71 – So how long before he LNP realise Abbott has toomuch baggage and dumps him in favour of Julie Bishop?

    I think if Tony Abbott falls over before or after the election, it will be Joe Hockey who’ll take up the reins. He was ‘supposed’ to win the leadership back in 2009. Malcolm Turnbull is a possibility – he is probably economically closer to the Coalition’s main backers and has accommodated himself to the hard right, although the latter may not be accommodated to him. I can’t see Julie Bishop getting the guernsey though – too lightweight, an unimpressive Shadow Treasurer and as shadow Foreign Minister makes Alexander Downer look brilliant.

    And if Tony Abbott was going to fall over before the election, I think it would have happened by now.

  31. Isn’t Alan Jones some sort of Mentor for Abbott ?
    This is the sort of thinking that people seemingly want in the next (likely) Prime Minister.

  32. Sources tell me that Colin Howard’s family are taking their case against Sophie Mirabella to court in the next couple of months (May/June).

  33. Guytaur,

    Your silence is deafening!

    Why did it take fifteen years to bring on the Ettridge case??

    Surely he would have had a better chance of success at the time it occurred. The evidence is now fifteen years old.

  35. victoria

    She also refused to apologise to the former councillor who accused her of defamation, so it will be interesting to see what happens there as well.

  36. Before anyone gets too excited, this is what the Queensland CMC found in relation to the Ettridge matters:

    Conclusions
    The Commission is of the opinion that no misconduct or other impropriety has been shown to have been associated with the conduct of the litigation concerning Ms Hanson and Mr Ettridge, or with the police investigations leading to the prosecution.

    The Commission also found no evidence of political pressure or other improper influence or impropriety.

    The Commission found nothing to show a failure to accord due process, in accordance with the rule of law, to Ms Hanson and Mr Ettridge.

    In particular, the involvement of Tony Abbott in events leading up to the institution of proceedings to deregister the party did not produce or constitute a failure of due process.

    http://tinyurl.com/cncmoa8

  38. What a waste of space Virginia Trioli is!

    Typical left wing and offensive wank.

    “The contrast of course with what goes on in, I mentioned Iraq in passing just before, what goes on there and also in Afghanistan on a weekly basis has not been lost on many people this morning. We did report this morning of course that there were a series of bomb attacks overnight in Iraq and it’s important to mention that again, 37 people dead and more than 270 others were wounded. Several cities were hit in those bomb blasts, the capital Baghdad, Kirkuk in the North and Nasiriyah in the South. They were coordinated attacks according to police there during the morning rush hour and they mainly involved car bombs. That’s the contrast that we always have on a day like today when it seems to me where we are overly focusing on what happens to rich white people in the West, versus what happens on a daily basis in those countries.”

    Apparently we should ignore terrorist attacks on ‘rich, white people’!

  39. Isn’t Alan Jones some sort of Mentor for Abbott?

    One would normally think that with friends like Alan Jones Tony Abbott does not need enemies. I don’t listen to Jones’ show but from what filters through he seems to be running off the rails into nutjub territory: accusing the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology of being corrupt because they believe Climate Change is happening; his ‘died of shame’ and ‘chaffbag’ comments; his sometimes bizarre rants (e.g. trucks being stopped at the ACT border); being called on getting the proportion of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere out by a factor of 28,000. And I would have thought that ‘Cash for Comment’ back in 1999 would have destroyed his credibility. But he goes on, and rather than running a mile to avoid being associated with him, the IPA and Liberal Party have him as guest of honour at their functions.

  40. [73
    guytaur

    I think this is the danger for Abbott in the upcoming election campaign.

    It will split the vote of the right as it did in Howard’s day.

    All those appeals on boats wasted. Hanson will benefit instead.]

    At the end of the day, following Labor, the LNP placed One Nation last on their HTV cards and refused to bargain with them. This probably cost the LNP more than it cost Labor, and, to that extent was contrary to their immediate vote-maximizing interest. They should get at least some credit for that. The political extinction of One Nation was very much in the nest interests of this country, and if the LNP helped achieve that, I’m more than happy to give them a bouquet. KIm Beazley was also absolutely resolute on One Nation, probably to the detriment of his chances too, and should be recognized for his leadership at the time.

  41. Now which newspaper could this article be talking about? Is it The Australian?

    [ It’s been Murdoch’s money-losing personal instrument for all manner of trouble-making, political power-brokering, and punishment and reward. When it was not being bent to his personal will, it was to that of his editors, picking the paper’s enemies and friends for both personal and institutional benefit.

    To say the ***** is self-serving would be beside the point. It is the last of the great bully-boy newspapers.

    This joie de guerre has cost Murdoch as much as $80m a year in unstoppable losses – perhaps more than $1bn over 35 years.

    ]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/15/new-york-post-murdoch-plaything?CMP=twt_gu

  42. When ON ran in 1998, the AEC counters at one small booth in Indi were so sure they were a factor that they distributed the 2PP votes between Libs & ON – despite the fact that Labor outpolled ON at that booth.

  44. Maybe Murdoch regards the money spent on publications like the Australian in the same way he would regard an advertising budget. His newspapers are doing a lot to bring about political and business environments in the Anglosphere that are more friendly to those of his commercial interests that do or can make money.

  45. The left really are getting desperate!

    Anyone would think that Abbott was being investigated by the Fraud Squad for knowingly funnelling stolen money into a slush fund.

    Get back to reality land Guytaur!

  46. I doubt the Etteridge matter will get much past the first hearing and also doubt it will have any impact on Abbott’s standing which is pretty low to begin with. The May hearing will no doubt get buried under the noise surrounding the budget.

    Having said that you will no doubt be able to read copious amounts of stuff in IA about Etteridge/Abbott if you are so inclined.

    I’m feeling cynical this morning 🙂

  47. Mick77

    [You know what – just to put my money where my mouth is. With William as witness there’s $100 for the Salvos if you can get Lee Rhiannon to make, or put on record …]

    1. If you’re going to put money down you’d be better picking an organisation to which I might donate. The Salvos are not only religious but have, in the US, someone who says that gays are condemned by God to die. I wouldn’t be helping them.

    Some alternatives: David Suzuki Foundation; Bob Brown Foundation; Sea Shepherd; MSF, Oxfam …

    2. People on the right keep saying that Lee has somehow solidarised with jihadi attacks, but I’ve nover seen any evidence that she has done so. If you could furnish a reliable source for this commentary, I’d be most interested.

    As to Boston, it may well be that this turns out to be the action of some apolitical but violent psychopath. It is odd that as yet, nobody has claimed responsibility. There’s very little point in carrying out a terrorist attack and then not putting your hand up to say who you are and why you did it. If you want to send a message, the first thing to do is to make sure it was received.

    I’m not all that keen on politicians rushing in to condemn stuff before the facts are in.

  48. When Keating famously proclaimed that Abbott was destroying the4 joint, he was only half right. It isn’t Abbott that is intent on destroying the joint, it’s Murdoch. By using his rags to ferment a sense of crisis within the community towards the Government, Murdoch is engineering a Regime change to a pliant Administration that will put Murdochs interests above that of the National Interests.

  49. Alan Jones is obviously letting views of university students and terrorism from decades past rather than present realities.

    University students are less politically active than they were in previous decades. The Howard Government being particularly responsible for this. Student welfare payments are bellow those of Newstart, degrees more expensive and students thus have to work more and thus have less time for politics.

    Terrorism these days is far more likely to be right-wing. Again this is not the 1970s. Terrorism is mainly from right-wingers of either the “Islamic” fundamentalist type or the “White”/”Christian” supremacist type.

    International students would be generally less politically active than other students, on issues not affecting international students directly at least.

    Education services for international students are one of our largest exports. So Jones wants to hurt one of our main export industries because of outdated views.

  50. [dave…

    Technological change, distrust etc – but mainly the media really are not delivery what people want and they are getting it elsewhere.]

    Most of the discussion of media talks about corporate business models and the impact of technological change on production and distribution costs, and on competition for advertising revenues.

    I think there is another side to the story as well. Generally, the products of the media are thought of as things that are “consumed”, like any other item ..an ice cream or a tank of petrol or a postal service. The transaction/consumption process is taken to be so simple that it doesn’t enter into thinking about commercial media.

    But I suspect that the “consumption” of media products is a lot more complicated than that. In fact, there are a lot of costs associated with the consumption of these products, even where they carry no sticker-price. That is, there are plenty of hidden charges for consumers – charges on their time, their attention, their trust, and potential further demands (from advertisers) on their pockets.

    The biggest hit is on their time. You can’t really “consume” media products unless you’re willing to allocate time to it, and, as we know, we are all time-poor these days. The opportunity cost of time is variable, but for many it is quite high.

    This drives consumers to find ways to derive the “gains” from media consumption in cost-minimizing ways. So they go for highly condensed information in order to save scarce and irreplaceable time. Since consumers know this information is incomplete, in general its reliability is also heavily discounted.

    This puts the consumer in a bit of a dilemma: they have spent very little gaining, say, access to sports results or a market snapshot, weather reports or some politics. But they have received only a small morsel of “product”. What will they do? Will they increase their spending? Or will they move on to something else?

    This relates to a basic aspect of human behaviour, which is to try to get things “at a discount” wherever possible. There are good reasons for this. Obtaining benefits with the least possible effort frees people to increase their overall gains. This free-rider instinct is powerful – almost irresistible – and guides consumer use of media products, which are available in increasingly small units. Not only are the units of consumption getting smaller, they are getting more differentiated. This means consumers can “spend” increasingly less on media products and still get whatever it is they want from the continuum that is offered in the digital universe.

    Of course, they will make exceptions for “stories” in which they have some over-riding interest or curiosity, which, in my opinion, is why sport is so popular. People enjoy contests and, miraculously, get an adrenaline charge from engagement with the suspenseful dramas that sport offers.

    So there are some information channels – sport, business news, maybe fashion, food, weather and disaster stories – on which consumers will voluntarily lift the “spend”. This enables media firms to re-sell consumer interest and attention to advertisers.

    But the pressure is on all these channels too. We can see this from the proliferation of business and weather channels, which, by their specialization or positioning, reduce the “on-costs” of consuming their products.

    To state the obvious, I think we are in the very early moments of the complete reconstruction of the process of news creation, distribution and consumption, and the changes will be driven more and more by consumer behaviour than by producer models.

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