The latest weekly BludgerTrack update accommodates results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan’s multi-mode poll, with the latter looking like it will be a regularly weekly occurrence in contrast to the unpredictable schedule of the face-to-face series it has replaced. This is a somewhat better batch of polling for Labor than the previous week or two, gaining them 0.5% on two-party preferred and two extra on the seat projection. My latest bias adjustments for the Morgan multi-mode polling, based on comparison of its results with the overall poll trend, are +1.7% for Labor, +0.4% for the Coalition and -1.5% for the Greens, compared with +1.4%, +0.9% and -1.5% as I calculated them a week ago.
In other news, I have a raft of preselection action and a review of some minor electoral law changes:
• A bitterly contested preselection to replace Nicola Roxon in the rock solid Labor seat of Gellibrand in western Melbourne has been won by Telstra executive Tim Watts, running with the backing of Stephen Conroy, for whom he once worked as a staffer. His opponents were Katie Hall, a former adviser to Roxon who ran with her backing; Kimberley Kitching, former Melbourne councillor and current acting general manager of the Health Services Union No. 1 branch; Julia Mason and Daniel McKinnon. The 50% of the preselection vote determined by a local party ballot conducted on Monday saw 126 votes go to Watts, 105 to Kitching, 87 to Hall, 42 to McKinnon and four to Mason. Despite a preference deal between Kitching and Hall, that gave Watts a decisive lead going into Tuesday’s vote of the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, where the “stability pact” between the Shorten-Conroy Right forces and the Socialist Left reportedly assured him of about 70% of the vote. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Kitching, who had hoped to prevail with support from Turkish community leaders, was thwarted when the “Suleyman clan” (referring to an influential family in western suburbs politics) defected to Watts in exchange for support for Natalie Suleyman to take the number three position on the upper house ticket for Western Metropolitan at the next state election. A dirt sheet targeting Hall over her sexual history and involvement in the HSU was disseminated in the week before the vote, which has led to Kitching complaining to an ALP tribunal that Roxon had falsely accused her of being involved.
• Steve McMahon, chief executive of the NSW Trainers Association (as in thoroughbred horses) and former mayor of Hurstville, has won Labor preselection for the southern Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated at the election by Robert McClelland. Much more on that in the next episode of Seat of the Week.
• Barnaby Joyce faces opposition at the April 13 Nationals preselection for New England in the shape of David Gregory, owner of an agricultural software business in Tamworth. Another mooted nominee, National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie, is instead seeking preselection for the by-election to replace Richard Torbay in his Armidale-based state seat of Northern Tablelands.
• Tony Crook, who won the southern regional WA seat of O’Connor for the Nationals from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, has announced he will not seek another term. The seat was already looming as a spirited three-cornered contest to match the several which had unfolded at the state election (including in the corresponding local seats of Kalgoorlie and Eyre), with the Liberals running hard and early behind their candidate, Katanning farmer Rick Wilson.
• Jason Tin of the Courier-Mail reports Chris Trevor will again be Labor’s candidate for the central Queensland seat of Flynn, having won the seat when it was created in 2007 before joining the Queensland Labor casualty list in 2010. Nicole Hodgson, a teacher, and Leanne Donaldson, a former public servant in child protection, were reportedly set to take on the thankless tasks of Hinkler and Fadden.
A package of electoral law changes made it through parliament last month in the shape of the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Improving Electoral Administration) Act 2013, despite opposition to some measures from the Coalition and Senate cross-benchers Nick Xenophon and John Madigan:
• If a ballot box is unlawfully opened before the authorised time, as occurred at two pre-poll booths in Boothby and Flynn at the 2010 election, the act now requires that the votes be admitted to the count if it is established that “official error” was responsible. The AEC requested the law be clarified after it acted on contestable legal advice in excluding the relevant votes in Boothby and Flynn from the count, which were too few to affect the result. In its original form the bill directed that the affected votes should be excluded, but Bronwyn Bishop successfully advocated for the savings provision when it was referred to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.
• The Australian Taxation Office has been added to the list of agencies which can provide the Australian Electoral Commission with data relevant to enrolment. As usual with matters that touch on automatic enrolment, this was opposed by the Coalition, Xenophon and Madigan, but supported by all lower house independents and the Greens.
• Pre-polling will in all circumstances begin four days after the close of nominations, giving the AEC two more days to print and disseminate material to the voting centres. The Coalition took the opportunity to move for the pre-poll period to be cut from 19 days before polling day to 12, again with the support of Xenophon and Madigan. The change also eliminates a discrepancy where the date came forward a day if there was no election for the Senate, in which case the election timetable did not have to provide an extra day for lodgement of Senate preference tickets.
• Those casting pre-poll votes will no longer have to sign declaration certificates. A change in the status of pre-poll votes from declaration to ordinary votes was implemented at the 2010 election, allowing them to be counted on election night, but voters still had to sign a certificate. The AEC advised this was unnecessary, but the measure was nonetheless opposed by the Coalition, Xenophon and Madigan.
• The cut-off for receiving postal vote applications has been moved back a day from Thursday to Wednesday, acknowledging the near certainty that voting material posted to those who apply on the Thursday will not be received in time.
• The timetable for conducting electoral redistributions has been amended to allow more time for considering objections raised in public submissions.
The USA is responsible for the Ayatollahs controlling Iran. It organised the 1953 coup against an elected secular leader who was nationalising the oil, all be it at the behest of Winston Churchill. It then Backed the tyranny of the Shar for 25 years that particularly went after the secular leftists.
Psephos@1100
The Freo pig’s brains are in reverse?
Is the coalitions policy to have barely coherent policies, the only point of which is to be able to say they have a policy.
Seems The Dweller is on. Must be a Murdoch dictum.
Frednk and Carey Moore and anyone else
Dog Albitey, can i take my tongue out of my cheek yet?
The pain is excruciating.
Of course we’re a Catholic country. Why else would 56% of us contemplate having a crank Catholic as PM!
[psyclaw
Posted Friday, April 12, 2013 at 10:40 pm | Permalink
..
Of course we’re a Catholic country. Why else would 56% of us contemplate having a crank Catholic as PM!]
I think to claim that all Catholics are Liberals is a bit of an insult to Catholics.
The pigs brain extract cerebrolysin is used in trials in degenerative neurological conditions like dementia, Parkinson’s and MS.
How its meant to help normal human brains function is beyond me.
Amazing!
Essendon makes a massive comeback. After half time.
I really wonder.
[ Roger Miller
Posted Friday, April 12, 2013 at 10:34 pm | Permalink
Is the coalitions policy to have barely coherent policies, the only point of which is to be able to say they have a policy.]
Given how well this week went it might be best if they leave it at one policy and no matter what the topic say “we have a policy” and leave it at that.
[How its meant to help normal human brains function is beyond me.]
Diog, yes, i suppose nothing can improve your brain 👿
Costello reminding everyone of what an oily character he is.
Smarmy as ever.
Jimmy must have given them a PEP talk at half time!
What a game!!
Freo kicked so many behinds in the last 1/4.
Popcorn,
It is Fiiiiiiiiinny v Dio!
The putrid smell of partially digested Neo-cons generates a self sustaining sense of self importance in their hangers-on. What are joyous scents to them are stenches foul to the world.
You cant argue the truth of the sweet smell of roses with a fly that thinks cow pat aroma is a thing of joy.
Fiiiny
I linked your Bisons on a Bloomberg article comment, to squash a rw bug!
Ahhhh freo
snatchin defeat from the jaws of victory
Freo and especially Pavlich really choked in that last term.
Great composure by Hird.
TP 1117,
9The putrid smell of partially digested Neo-cons generates a self sustaining sense of self importance in their hangers-on. What are joyous scents to them are stenches foul to the world.
You cant argue the truth of the sweet smell of roses with a fly that thinks cow pat aroma is a thing of joy.]
All is forgiven.
The two 50m penalties by the maggots probably got essadon over the line….but then they had a rough week
psyclaw@1105
Haha, you guys broke psy.
Never tip freo…they do this. I recall Melbourne being 9 goals down at half time and beating them
Sorry guys I started a joke thingy and then went off to watch the footy
So have the New Labor apparatchiks proven Howard was right and that the US is an inernational lifesaver yet?
Didn’t think so. But they are trying. Labor/Liberal – one big agglomeration of toadyism.
Psyclaw, catching your subsequent posts, I note you were being facetious. I apologise for taking it seriously, I am not good at catching that stuff! 🙂
Kinkajou
“I don’t know that one, but if you whistle it for me I’m sure I’ll be able to play it”
Carey Moore
The lord be with you my son!
May all the blessings of Mr Pell descend upon you!
🙂
😀
Crean gives his own party another uppercut in tomorrow’s Fairfax spreads.
‘Directly attacks Gillard’s leadership and decision-making’ apparently.
Well done Simon. Good team effort there.
FFS
Crean off the reservation again, and of course it’s Hartcher leading the way:
Poor old Simon has lost it this time. He slags off Rudd and Gillard both, and suggest that he is repository of all wisdom.
Christ, he sounds like an old crank.
And Hartcher… well…what can one say?
Jimmy Hird has a lovely tan there at his press conference…
[So have the New Labor apparatchiks proven Howard was right and that the US is an inernational lifesaver yet?
Didn’t think so. But they are trying. Labor/Liberal – one big agglomeration of toadyism.]
Tulia Gabbott, Johlia Goward …. the smell is similar
BB
Try ro appreciate the meaning of the words. The whole lot is reflective of the split. It isn’t made up. The party is going to implode after 09/14. It’s an issue of principle, or no principle.
gloryconsequence
Crean gives his own party another uppercut in tomorrow’s Fairfax spreads.
‘Directly attacks Gillard’s leadership and decision-making’ apparently.
Well done Simon. Good team effort there
A barnacle on the arse of the parliamentary system is losing its grip, and Simon cares. Why don’t you?
Stick to policy people. PB has been good the last few days. Ignore Simon, he’s on his way out.
Gary
Yeah so much to work with. First Rudd’s NBN, then fast rail in 2050. After that:
Refugees, Welfare, Tarkine, Barrier Reef, enviro control to the states, rooting public schools, failed mining tax, reluctant carbon action.
yep, policy . Repeat failure.
Forgot the marriage discrimination farce, and probably a few others. But yeah, concentrate on policy. That’ll get ’em.
1138
The ALP has many policy failings, but not nearly as many as the Coalition. Hence the focus on policy is a good idea.
In terms of urgency I think removing Crean’s head from his ass is at the top of the list, followed by summary executions of the entire NSW Right.
Seriously though. Relevance deprivation syndrome needs to be in the DSM-5.
[1131
Bushfire Bill
Crean off the reservation again….
Poor old Simon has lost it this time. He slags off Rudd and Gillard both, and suggest that he is repository of all wisdom.
Christ, he sounds like an old crank.]
If any proof was needed that Simon Crean has no talent for politics, his conduct in the last few weeks should suffice. He is a complete idiot.
Tom
True. We don’t even know what those awful drones will do. That’s why the Senate is so important given Labor’s utter failure. It is a swamp, and we are expected to pick the lesser of two evils. Not me. Senate only.
briefly
So how many ‘complete idiots’ have been leaders of your party in the past decade or so? Is that a question worth asking? What does it mean?
Simon Crean has so little talent for politics that he worked his way though the party in Victoria, arrangd the factional settings, did the necessary deals, recruited new supporters, performed roles at many levels of party and government, and because of what the party saw in him, was elected to high parliamentary office, and then as party leader.
According to the supporters of the old affiliated union hacks this now amounts to: “He is a complete idiot”.
There isn’t a person or position they wont vilify in order to keep on polishing Gillard ‘Labor’.
Do the coalition think their policies are ok, or do they know they are crap and just don’t care? Having a crap climate change policy hasn’t slowed them down. How much can they get away with?
I retract my earlier view of you. A few days ago.
‘The most disillusioned Labor supporter on this site’.
Clearly, you are surely otherwise.
An LNP supporter, without question.
Roger Miller
It has forever been thus. The government is the focus, then the opposition comes out from the wilderness a few weeks before the election with some beaut ideas.
I’m told that airing of opinions is a sign of a healthy party and democracy at work.
I’m not so sure about the first bit but its very good for our society that MPs aren’t gagged.
Perhaps Crean wants to start a new party. 😉