The latest weekly BludgerTrack update accommodates results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan’s multi-mode poll, with the latter looking like it will be a regularly weekly occurrence in contrast to the unpredictable schedule of the face-to-face series it has replaced. This is a somewhat better batch of polling for Labor than the previous week or two, gaining them 0.5% on two-party preferred and two extra on the seat projection. My latest bias adjustments for the Morgan multi-mode polling, based on comparison of its results with the overall poll trend, are +1.7% for Labor, +0.4% for the Coalition and -1.5% for the Greens, compared with +1.4%, +0.9% and -1.5% as I calculated them a week ago.
In other news, I have a raft of preselection action and a review of some minor electoral law changes:
• A bitterly contested preselection to replace Nicola Roxon in the rock solid Labor seat of Gellibrand in western Melbourne has been won by Telstra executive Tim Watts, running with the backing of Stephen Conroy, for whom he once worked as a staffer. His opponents were Katie Hall, a former adviser to Roxon who ran with her backing; Kimberley Kitching, former Melbourne councillor and current acting general manager of the Health Services Union No. 1 branch; Julia Mason and Daniel McKinnon. The 50% of the preselection vote determined by a local party ballot conducted on Monday saw 126 votes go to Watts, 105 to Kitching, 87 to Hall, 42 to McKinnon and four to Mason. Despite a preference deal between Kitching and Hall, that gave Watts a decisive lead going into Tuesday’s vote of the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, where the “stability pact” between the Shorten-Conroy Right forces and the Socialist Left reportedly assured him of about 70% of the vote. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Kitching, who had hoped to prevail with support from Turkish community leaders, was thwarted when the “Suleyman clan” (referring to an influential family in western suburbs politics) defected to Watts in exchange for support for Natalie Suleyman to take the number three position on the upper house ticket for Western Metropolitan at the next state election. A dirt sheet targeting Hall over her sexual history and involvement in the HSU was disseminated in the week before the vote, which has led to Kitching complaining to an ALP tribunal that Roxon had falsely accused her of being involved.
• Steve McMahon, chief executive of the NSW Trainers Association (as in thoroughbred horses) and former mayor of Hurstville, has won Labor preselection for the southern Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated at the election by Robert McClelland. Much more on that in the next episode of Seat of the Week.
• Barnaby Joyce faces opposition at the April 13 Nationals preselection for New England in the shape of David Gregory, owner of an agricultural software business in Tamworth. Another mooted nominee, National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie, is instead seeking preselection for the by-election to replace Richard Torbay in his Armidale-based state seat of Northern Tablelands.
• Tony Crook, who won the southern regional WA seat of O’Connor for the Nationals from Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey in 2010, has announced he will not seek another term. The seat was already looming as a spirited three-cornered contest to match the several which had unfolded at the state election (including in the corresponding local seats of Kalgoorlie and Eyre), with the Liberals running hard and early behind their candidate, Katanning farmer Rick Wilson.
• Jason Tin of the Courier-Mail reports Chris Trevor will again be Labor’s candidate for the central Queensland seat of Flynn, having won the seat when it was created in 2007 before joining the Queensland Labor casualty list in 2010. Nicole Hodgson, a teacher, and Leanne Donaldson, a former public servant in child protection, were reportedly set to take on the thankless tasks of Hinkler and Fadden.
A package of electoral law changes made it through parliament last month in the shape of the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Improving Electoral Administration) Act 2013, despite opposition to some measures from the Coalition and Senate cross-benchers Nick Xenophon and John Madigan:
• If a ballot box is unlawfully opened before the authorised time, as occurred at two pre-poll booths in Boothby and Flynn at the 2010 election, the act now requires that the votes be admitted to the count if it is established that “official error” was responsible. The AEC requested the law be clarified after it acted on contestable legal advice in excluding the relevant votes in Boothby and Flynn from the count, which were too few to affect the result. In its original form the bill directed that the affected votes should be excluded, but Bronwyn Bishop successfully advocated for the savings provision when it was referred to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.
• The Australian Taxation Office has been added to the list of agencies which can provide the Australian Electoral Commission with data relevant to enrolment. As usual with matters that touch on automatic enrolment, this was opposed by the Coalition, Xenophon and Madigan, but supported by all lower house independents and the Greens.
• Pre-polling will in all circumstances begin four days after the close of nominations, giving the AEC two more days to print and disseminate material to the voting centres. The Coalition took the opportunity to move for the pre-poll period to be cut from 19 days before polling day to 12, again with the support of Xenophon and Madigan. The change also eliminates a discrepancy where the date came forward a day if there was no election for the Senate, in which case the election timetable did not have to provide an extra day for lodgement of Senate preference tickets.
• Those casting pre-poll votes will no longer have to sign declaration certificates. A change in the status of pre-poll votes from declaration to ordinary votes was implemented at the 2010 election, allowing them to be counted on election night, but voters still had to sign a certificate. The AEC advised this was unnecessary, but the measure was nonetheless opposed by the Coalition, Xenophon and Madigan.
• The cut-off for receiving postal vote applications has been moved back a day from Thursday to Wednesday, acknowledging the near certainty that voting material posted to those who apply on the Thursday will not be received in time.
• The timetable for conducting electoral redistributions has been amended to allow more time for considering objections raised in public submissions.
[1041
confessions
I will add: criticising one Labor leader is ‘gratuitous’; criticising another shows how objective and open minded you are.
😆
Absolutely spot on!]
Or even upright and patriotic.
Lighthorse…from WA?
I was polled this week by a company that
was recorded no one to speak to
ask questions said touch keys and gave the numbers
in the end o had no idea what I voted for ect
very confusing when you cannot re ask a question
so I hang up
my say
And this on twitter re Turnbull is spot on
[Turnbull is a smooth talking salesman but his voting record so far: 1. Against Carbon price/ETS 2. Against SSM 3. Against #NBN #fraudband]
The to-ing and fro-ing over the NBN is reminiscent of the introduction of Pay TV in Australia, a decade or so after it was introduced into comparable countries. It was delayed until existing media players, especially Murdoch, could direct its implementation and control it. News Corporation doesn’t want an NBN in this country it doesn’t control.
briefly@1052
Think Ctar is originally from NSW.
A lot of the lighthorse horses were from NSW – the famous ‘Whalers’
[ANZAC Mounted Division
Light horse were like mounted infantry in that they usually fought dismounted, using their horses as transport to the battlefield and as a means of swift disengagement when retreating or retiring. A famous exception to this rule though was the charge of the 4th and 12th Light Horse Regiments at Beersheba on 31 October 1917. In 1918 some light horse regiments were equipped with sabres, enabling them to fight in a conventional cavalry role during the advance on Damascus. However, unlike mounted infantry, the light horse also performed certain roles, such as scouting and screening, while mounted.
The Australian Light Horse Regiments that served in the Sinai and Palestine Campaign were organised into five Australian Light Horse Brigades. During February 1916, the Australian mounted troops of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Light Horse Brigades and the New Zealand Mounted Rifles Brigade were placed together in the ANZAC Mounted Division. A reorganisation of the mounted troops was ordered in February 1917 leading to the formation of the ANZAC Mounted Division]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Light_Horse
vic
see my email for a great interview
However, to be fair, if you’re in a place arguing with 10 different different people, each with their own different proposition, sometimes it’s very tempting to work them all over as if they were one clump instead of 10 independent threads.
gee so much for progressive blog
now we are to around 100 years
o well what ever takes your fancy I suppose
I had an gr uncle die in france
but not a fan of Anzac day at all
dave
[WW1 – Lighthorse ??]
Vote 1 NZ Mounted Rifles at Beersheba .Somewhere out there my g.g. uncle Frank who had survived Gallipoli rode on and thankfully survived.
[NEW ZEALAND MOUNTED RIFLES
The Attack on Beersheba 1917
]
http://www.nzmr.org/beersheba.htm
Bemused
Even though you may not be a Christian, this is a Christian country, so the social contract requires that being a citizen enjoying the fruits of the nation, you must abide by Christian teachings.
You have no choice. Come on! Be a team player! Turn the other cheek! You know I’m right!
They said PM lied about the Carbon Tax but how many died? John Howard lied about Iraq War & these many have died – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War …
[Even though you may not be a Christian, this is a Christian country, so the social contract requires that being a citizen enjoying the fruits of the nation, you must abide by Christian teachings.]
Nope. Secular nation. Bad luck.
Finnigans
In his speech the other day the rodent defensively claimed that it was “the parliament” who took us to Iraq. As I recall it, it was he who made the decision and then told his cabinet ship o fools.
Ditto for the strike fighter decision, made by him personally in a Wash hotel room.
psyclaw@1063
Take it up with the one who started it.
A question for any serious policy wonks on here:
What is the discount the government receives on any major infrastructure project?
I get that we are paying 37 billion for an NBN or 36 billion for new subs, but a good chunk of that comes back into general revenue via the various taxes etc.
I understand that each project would be different with different mixes of labour/materials, domestic/imports etc. but is there a general rule-of-thumb?
psyclaw
There is no definition of a sports scientist but Dank has done a lot in sports science. He was one of the first to implement GPS tracking of players during matches and training.
I don’t think he’s a charlatan. It looks like he flew too close to the sun.
Qld Light Horse?
My grand-dad was on a nearby hill in his unit, and saw that charge. He never talked about the war so we never knew until I looked up his unit.
Diogenes@1069
Its more that these so called ‘sports’ are really multi billion businesses – which are expansive – they always want more more money – better performance etc.
But we all know that.
THLV has stupidly continued his Sunrise appearances. This morning he came across as yesterday’s man, railing against an opposition he lacked the intestinal fortitude as PM to fight.
Meanwhile the PM continues to soldier on.
Australia doesn’t have an official religion.
Or official language.
[I don’t think he’s a charlatan. It looks like he flew too close to the sun.]
The two questions I have are why you wouldn’t just run this stuff past ASADA, and why was the EFC Dr alienated so? Surely these things popped up on the radar of the board?
confessions@1072
She is not getting much credit from the China breakthroughs – so far anyway.
Maybe we might see some in the weekend media.
LNP Fraudbanded has become that which must not be discussed/ analysed by our fearless media?
dave
[A lot of the lighthorse horses were from NSW – the famous ‘Whalers’]
There is a famous pic of the fleet leaving from Albany ( W.A.) for the Middle East escorted by Japanese war ships.
poroti – yes they were on our side in that one – something most wouldn’t know about.
fess
[The two questions I have are why you wouldn’t just run this stuff past ASADA, and why was the EFC Dr alienated so? Surely these things popped up on the radar of the board?]
Very good questions. I gather the doc set his standards uncomfortably high for the football department and so was ignored.
There is a HUGE question over whether the board saw the letter documenting the club docs concerns. If they saw it and didn’t do anything, some serious people could be in serious trouble.
BTW Essendon a 5 goals down at quarter time to Freo.
IVs to the Essendon coaches box STAT!
fess
[The two questions I have are why you wouldn’t just run this stuff past ASADA, ]
The former head of ASADA asked the same question yesterday when interviewed.
You don’t like being proved wrong, do you, Diogenes?
Diogenes
[
fess
The two questions I have are why you wouldn’t just run this stuff past ASADA,
The former head of ASADA asked the same question yesterday when interviewed.]
Even worse calls to ASADA about supplement’s etc have a toll free number.
Bemused @1067
“take it up with the one who started it”
Dog Albitey?
[She is not getting much credit from the China breakthroughs – so far anyway.]
Her achievements are happening against a backdrop of coalition policy incompetence.
Diogenes @ 1069
You seem to be very tolerant and defensive of Dank……… do you see him as a fellow vet ……. are you showing him the same professional courtesy sharks show lawyers in not eating them.
The best that can be said for Danks is that on the face of it, he is a shifter and shaker who didn’t mind exploring the coefficient of flexibility of rules.
Carey Moore @ 1065
Are you sure this is a secular country. Surely we are religious in our outlook, and to press the point, Christian, and to press it again, Catholic!
Carey Moore
My hero Tony Abbott agrees with me! And I know Bemused does too……. He’s just to polite to say so, but I know what he’s really thinking. A
Lateline is scraping the bottom of the barrel tonight …….. Talking to Costello about a number of current issues. What a crock ……..(both of em, Costello and the ABC)
Victoria
I look at it like this
Abbott stabbed Turnbull in the back
Abbott invited Turnbull back to the front bench with the proviso he destroy the NBN
Turnbull decides it’s a good opportunity to slyly sink Abbott
Turnbull has been a busy little beaver concocting a crock of shit which Abbott thought was a serious alternative policy.
Turnbull sold it at the launch with lots of big words Abbott couldn’t understand
Abbott actually thought Turnbull was doing a fair dinkum good job because he didn’t understand half the technical and big words used by Turnbull and Turnbulls faux argument with the questioners.
Abbott has seen the backlash from the public over Turnbulls crock of shit and now realises he has been done over.
If they happen to get in they have a three tier set of inquiries/investigations, probably by Costello.
That is when everyone will know how fraudulent the LNP is.
Psephos
Im happy to leave it to our gentle readers to decide who was right, Psephos or the rest of the world.
Gaffhook
If Turnbull has deliberately shafted Abbott, he has damaged himself in the process. Personally, i think they were being puppets for Murdoch.
[You seem to be very tolerant and defensive of Dank]
I still don’t know what has gone on yet.
If he’s injecting the crap it seems he has been injecting into people, I’m appalled and think he should be facing serious charges.
I think our readers can see that you (a) made a wild claim, (b) were unable to substantiate it, and (c) when challenged responded with falsehoods and childish abuse. This is fairly typical behaviour for you in my observation. You’re an intelligent man but obviously not a very pleasant person.
Dio:
As I said last night, this Essendon thing has a ways to play out, and we can’t really pre-empt the outcome, whether we like to think we can or not.
There are questions which might seem obvious to you and I as outsiders, yet may well raise no obvious eyebrow raise to those in the know.
Honestly, I think the best we can do on this is to wait for the official conclusion.
The claim was substantiated. You didn’t like it when you were proven wrong by reality, such as Jordan being defined as an “authoritarian regime”.
When presented with evidence you were wrong, you fell back on the post-modernist rubbish that of reality being relative and you can choose whatever definition you wanted.
And while we’re waiting, Essendon are playing the Dockers, who seem to have the Bombers’ measure just after half time.
I think I tipped the Dockers, hopefully.
[The claim was substantiated. ]
That’s just an outright lie.
Psephos
You managed to deny reality for three years about Rudd and I’m sure you are capable of denying the reality of those thirteen dictatorships for ever as it doesn’t fit your narrow world view.
[psyclaw
..
Are you sure this is a secular country. Surely we are religious in our outlook, and to press the point, Christian, and to press it again, Catholic!]
Catholics 21% and those we have don’t seem to believe the pope is god’s right hand man. The 10 children families are a thing of the past. I don’t think you will win may arguments in Aus with “god said”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia
Essendon coming back now. The pig’s brains must be kicking in.