BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Two more grim poll results send Labor further south in the latest weekly poll aggregate.

BludgerTrack finds Labor’s tailspin continuing as the trend catches up with the slump that has followed last fortnight’s leadership fiasco, with two new polls (both conducted despite the interruption of Easter) adding further fuel to the fire. Labor sheds a further 1.6% on the primary vote and 1.1% on two-party preferred, with the seat projection putting the Coalition shy of a century that would be achieved with the gain of just one independent seat.

The new poll results are from Essential Research and Morgan’s new multi-mode series, which supplements their much-maligned face-to-face polling with online surveying, and which I am now introducing to BludgerTrack for the first time. The results are being adjusted with bias measures obtained against the poll trend itself, so adding it will not introduce any bias to the model that isn’t there already. So far, the move looks to be producing results more typical of phone polling than the notoriously Labor-leaning face-to-face series. This year Morgan has published five face-to-face followed by five multi-mode polls, and the average deviations from the trend have been as follows:

Face-to-face: Labor +1.0%, Coalition -3.9%, Greens +0.7%.
Multi-mode: Labor -1.4%, Coalition -0.9%, Greens +1.5%.

The latter set of numbers are the ones I am currently using for the bias adjustment (I will recalculate this each week), and they’re very similar to those I’m using for Galaxy.

The other development in BludgerTrack is that Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate has been added to the state differentials calculation, which again puts Victoria’s anti-Labor swing ahead of New South Wales. One possibly unfortunate consequence of the new numbers being added is that any post-leadership crisis effect in Queensland is being further obscured by a result that was four-fifths derived from before the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. frednk

    [The USA is effectively a war zone, accept that and the place makes sense. Not a good place to visit though.]

    I have no idea what “it makes sense means”, but I am appalled by the seemingly cultural acceptance here that the Australian model for the future is the USofA. I understand why the rightists in the former Lib Party support it.

    I come across as anti-USofA but it is not that. I do care what values other countries choose to live by but I do not concern myself with it.

    But in the case of the USofA, I care because our nation, after breaking from Britain, instead of becoming an adult independent self-confident nation, as I hoped in the 80’s, has chosen to become a cultural/political colony of the USofA.

    In our geographical context, I think that is a very bad model to follow.

    It is in the media’s and retail industry’s interests because it gets cheap ideas ready made.

  2. Henry @2234

    I have no issue with reforms, some of which are turning backsome of the sillier things that labor have done since in office BUT how do YOU seem them actually coming to fruition?

  3. The Fellowship would like to announce a new award, The Ent.

    The Ent will be awarded to the poster of the most balanced, non party political propaganda contribution to PB.

    Applications are now open…

  4. Mod Lib, you should drop the “Mod” unless it doesn’t actually mean moderate. The Abbott brain fart this week about not supporting public transport infrastructure funding for the states shows just how far removed he is from the moderate side of the Liberal Party. Turnbull is a staunch advocate for improving the nation’s public transport system, yet here we have Abbott sprouting about no funding for state public transport infrastructure.

  5. [The Ent will be awarded to the poster of the most balanced, non party political propaganda contribution to PB.

    Applications are now open…]

    Vote 1 Rummel

  6. it takes time BBseph.At least labor has the courage to have a crack at it.And they will take this latest policy to the election, can’t do much more than that.

  7. Rummell

    Just on the train jibe, your man John Howard spent $450m of taxpayers money on the Alice springs to Darwin railroad, and then sold it for a song to some American carpetbaggers.

    No wonder Abbott says the Liberals never fund rail – too embarrassed to mention.

  8. Also let me share a few secrets about Marxist uprisings I know about.

    1. Firstly they start in rural areas and spread into the towns then the cities. The Green thing that has occurred in the cities like inner Melbourne is pointless. Concrete can’t support grass roots.

    2. Secondly, they start with the dumb folk who are the pawns of the higher beings. This makes them expendable. The more ignorant someone is, the more likely they will die for your cause.

    3. Thirdly, unity. Causes have to start united – share a common hatred usually.

    4. Fourthly, You action need some sort of firepower at your disposal – guns etc. Need to be able to overthrow the police or confront the army.

    5. Fifthly, You need to have charismatic leader who can move the masses. Effective communication is key.

    If you are lucky and follow those five steps, you might actually get to keep the ALP in power – which would be bliss.

    Good luck – Tell ’em wally Kolla sen’ya

  9. [Simon Crean’s last leak was fun to watch. Made a fool of himself didn’t he.]

    On the contrary he and the others did some good as he undoubtedly got Gillard/Swan etc to make some quick changes to their policy to halt the vote destruction storm.

    AND lucky for Gillard/Swan that they did it now. Can you imagine the damage Labor would have taken if they delivered their original intent in the budget? They would have been crucified from breakfast….

    Undoubtedly Crean had a very good idea what they had in the budget for Super…and is why he raised the alarm early.

  10. Here’s what I’d like to see the Government do from now till the election:

    Pretty much shut up.

    Don’t float wild new policy ideas, any new policy ideas for that matter. Don’t harp on about how bad Abbott and the LNP will be. Don’t say anything about anything unless absolutely necessary – like a bit of rah-rah about the China trip.

    This way, perhaps the focus will naturally shift to the LNP. Let them do the running, let the media look for something new to talk about.

  11. rummell

    [swamprat

    Any train drivers in Labor today?]

    I doubt it as it is a form of transport not favoured by either MSParty.

    Do you think that smart arse question convinces anyone from thinking your typically Liberal Party idea that someone educated at an elite school, university degree, Oxford Uni and never done a days work in his life (apart from a few media articles) is a “joe blog”?

  12. Diog

    firstly, $170 million isn’t (in government budget terms) ‘a huge amount of money’.

    Secondly, it’s not just a case of taking a child, throwing some money at them, and expecting an instantaneous improvement in their academic performance. Children, it might surprise you to know, are the result of years of development. The ones who are ‘underperforming’ often have baggage that you or I can’t even imagine. Being complex entities, children can take a while to ‘improve’.

    thirdly, NAPLAN testing is one measure of performance, and it can be a rather crude one. It doesn’t test, for example, whether a student who has spent the last three years climbing walls and throwing spitballs is now making an effort to sit quietly and pay attention. It doesn’t test whether the shyest girl in the room has developed enough confidence to speak in front of a small group.

    No educational program can be judged for its effectiveness after a year or two. That there is (apparently) slight improvement is an encouraging sign, but it’s long term results that are important.

    (We used to joke about one student I taught that if, as a result of our efforts, he grew up to be a petty crim rather than a major one, we would have done society an immeasurable favour. We succeeded).

  13. Wal kolla @ 2266

    Does the collingwood childrens farm count as a rural area? If so a marxist uprising could start in the seat of melbourne.

  14. Well when labor wins the next election BBS, then I hope more substantial changes are made to redress Costello’s larceny.
    It should ideally be somewhat bipartisan but whilst Abbott is around it won’t happen.

  15. [Does the collingwood childrens farm count as a rural area?]

    No, but apparently they submit NAPLAN results and have a nice shiny new BER hall 😀

  16. [Well when labor wins the next election BBS, then I hope more substantial changes are made to redress Costello’s larceny.]

    If it was such a problem why has it taken so long for Labor to take no action? just like 457’s

  17. BLackburn

    I am currently on a defined benefit from previous employment. You get (funnily enough) a defined benefit which is not dependent on earnings from investments in a super fund.

    Most defined benefit schemes are now closed, and the bulk of people drawing benefits would have been subject to the Reasonable Benefits Limit which Howard abolished. No one earns a zac in a defined benefit scheme.

  18. Swamprat @ 2273

    Bob hawke went to an elite school, university and oxford? Where does he fit?

    All you comment shows is thtat you are an inverse snob on a number of fronts.

  19. Cop it sweet? For the last 2 years I have had a field day twice a week when the polls come out! Now I have the anticipation of 5 months of an exciting crescendo to a multi-term landslide victory.

    Oh, thats right, I forgot……Gillard is going to swarm to a massive victory and the polls are all wrong as your vibe cant be wrong, eh? :devil:

    PS: Every now and then I think it is important for us to thank you guys.

    So, thanks! 🙂

  20. z

    [firstly, $170 million isn’t (in government budget terms) ‘a huge amount of money’.]

    It only went to 200 schools. There are about 10,000 schools in Australia.

  21. there were changes made at last years budget as well rummel.
    so they are making progress – compare that to the coalition…

  22. Can someone explain to me how Gonski will improve learning outcomes for school children?
    Should I choose to remain in Australia and procreate here, I am fairly interested in any benefit that a state education would provide.
    I see the local state kids; who are effectively tomorrow’s criminals, lacking any general empathy or manners for the society they live in.
    If that is the advertisement for free education they should privatize it and introduce corporal punishment like at my school! My kids would be going to a grammar school.

  23. Mod Lib@2284

    Cop it sweet? For the last 2 years I have had a field day twice a week when the polls come out! Now I have the anticipation of 5 months of an exciting crescendo to a multi-term landslide victory.

    Oh, thats right, I forgot……Gillard is going to swarm to a massive victory and the polls are all wrong as your vibe cant be wrong, eh?

    PS: Every now and then I think it is important for us to thank you guys.

    So, thanks!

    Keep trying mod lib keep trying.
    This is fun, sorry I made you look silly earlier.

  24. Mod Lib

    [Cop it sweet? For the last 2 years I have had a field day twice a week when the polls come out! Now I have the anticipation of 5 months of an exciting crescendo to a multi-term landslide victory.]

    Yes, it is likely to happen.

    It is likely to be another 10-12 years of rightists control.

    Little investment in infrastructure. Franchise foreign/defence policy to Washington. Another war or two. Going backwards in education. More “flexible” working conditions for the poor. Welfare for the rich.

    What have I missed?

    I blame the ALP.

    Australia sorely needs a Party to represent its bottom 60%.

  25. Bbs

    Defined Benefits schemes give you a guaranteed income for the rest of your life, usually a % of your average income. Not tied to market fluctuations, earnings from investments. The money never runs out, because the sponsoring company or authority tops up the fund earnings if it falls short of the outgoings – the “unfunded liabilities” you hear about.

    Almost too good to be true. Which is why from a participants point of view, is the rolled gold standard.

  26. [thirdly, NAPLAN testing is one measure of performance, and it can be a rather crude one. It doesn’t test, for example, whether a student who has spent the last three years climbing walls and throwing spitballs is now making an effort to sit quietly and pay attention. It doesn’t test whether the shyest girl in the room has developed enough confidence to speak in front of a small group. ]

    That’s true but the money was specifically provided to increase the number of students reaching the minimum test standards so that is the best measure of its success.

  27. Zoomster @ 2274

    What is your view of naplan? When it first came in i thought it a good idea but since then i havebecome quite cynical. The year 7 test in particular is meaningless as they don’t measure the current school accurately.

  28. [Keep trying mod lib keep trying.
    This is fun, sorry I made you look silly earlier.]

    Henry stay on track and stop trolling Mod Lib.
    You support the ALP, you deal with your own problems.
    “Look over there, a five-headed cobra” trick is only going work so many times.

  29. [swamprat
    Posted Friday, April 5, 2013 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    I have no idea what “it makes sense means”]

    You need guns in war zone, people get killed in war zones, police shoot and ask questions later in war zones, that sort of thing.

    If you get pulled over in the US for speeding, remember the cops have guns and they use them, do not behave as you would in Australia; the consequences at the least will be a very angry cop; but you have to have some sympathy for them, they are operating in a war zone. That is what I mean by the place makes sense once you accept it.

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