BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Two more grim poll results send Labor further south in the latest weekly poll aggregate.

BludgerTrack finds Labor’s tailspin continuing as the trend catches up with the slump that has followed last fortnight’s leadership fiasco, with two new polls (both conducted despite the interruption of Easter) adding further fuel to the fire. Labor sheds a further 1.6% on the primary vote and 1.1% on two-party preferred, with the seat projection putting the Coalition shy of a century that would be achieved with the gain of just one independent seat.

The new poll results are from Essential Research and Morgan’s new multi-mode series, which supplements their much-maligned face-to-face polling with online surveying, and which I am now introducing to BludgerTrack for the first time. The results are being adjusted with bias measures obtained against the poll trend itself, so adding it will not introduce any bias to the model that isn’t there already. So far, the move looks to be producing results more typical of phone polling than the notoriously Labor-leaning face-to-face series. This year Morgan has published five face-to-face followed by five multi-mode polls, and the average deviations from the trend have been as follows:

Face-to-face: Labor +1.0%, Coalition -3.9%, Greens +0.7%.
Multi-mode: Labor -1.4%, Coalition -0.9%, Greens +1.5%.

The latter set of numbers are the ones I am currently using for the bias adjustment (I will recalculate this each week), and they’re very similar to those I’m using for Galaxy.

The other development in BludgerTrack is that Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate has been added to the state differentials calculation, which again puts Victoria’s anti-Labor swing ahead of New South Wales. One possibly unfortunate consequence of the new numbers being added is that any post-leadership crisis effect in Queensland is being further obscured by a result that was four-fifths derived from before the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. wal kolla@71

    The saddest thing for the ALP is that the people who have destroyed the Party are going to retain their seats.

    That will be the real tragedy.
    The masterminds behind this present sorry situation will still be there. Shorten, Conroy, Gillard etc. Only Swan will be gone.

  2. [Labor have to save Kate Ellis at all costs.]

    For what its worth, they should put her in Gillard’s seat – with Gillard not contesting the election. It would save a by-election later anyway. I do not see how Gillard’s parliamentary career will extend part Sept14.

  7. Not only is Peter Martin’s article factually inaccurate, he still acts on the presumption that 100% of earned income in Australia is the property of the government hence allowing you to keep what you earn is a ‘subsidy’.

    What an absolute dill.

  9. One final comment regarding the polls is that variation between the primary vote of the ALP and Libs.

    The ALP primary vote has been extremely ragged – whereas the libs have been gently sloping.

    The greens have had a 2.4% straight decline.

    Following the shape of the poll, the worst primary vote results for ALP seem to be around July.

    The last blowout started at March and finished at September. This blowout has started at February and would be due to finish at August? Gillard should of waited till October for the election.

  10. GP

    You are the dill. We are not Somalia. We have to pay for government. From sewerage to NDIS.

    We do this through taxes. We are not the US where we pretend government can run on thin air.

  11. 92

    There are several issue with that idea.

    Firstly, the Commonwealth has not civil unions power and as such would have to get the powers referred from the states and they are not likely to do that.

    Secondly, the marriage equality opponents would be even more opposed to this proposal than to marriage equality and would get significant support from marriage equality supporters and indifferent who support marriage. It would not have public support.

    Thirdly, would overseas and pre-reform marriages be categorised as civil unions or would people married overseas or pre-reform be classified as not in a civil union?

  14. Anyone who believes the prime motivating reason for the Government seeking to increase contribution taxes and super earnings tax on high income earners is driven primarily for the need to make sure the super system is sustainable, has rocks in their head.

    Katie Walsh in yesterday’s AFR.

    Henry expert slams Labor super threats.

    A member of the Henry tax review has rejected the federal government’s claims that tax breaks for superannuation are unsustainable and warned that threats to wind them back in the budget put key aims of the system at risk.

    University of NSW economics professor John Piggott said threatened changes to superannuation put at risk the “highly redistributive” system that provided income protection for the poor in old age and offered a modest standard of living that “most countries in the world would die for”.

    “The idea that it’s not sustainable is not sustainable,” Professor Piggott said.

    He was backed by University of Melbourne economics professor John Freebairn who said Treasury analysis that superannuation tax breaks cost $32 billion a year were nonsense because they failed to consider that savers would shift to other tax-effective strategies, such as negative gearing , in response to any changes.

    “We know that’s nonsense – part of the big cost is really fictitious,” Professor Freebairn said.

    Some might argue that paring back super concessions might “kick off another property boom”, he added.

    The government is expected to cut super tax breaks in the budget for those on higher incomes to help fund education and disability policies.

  18. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, April 3, 2013 at 9:29 am | Permalink
    confessions

    Abbott is unfit to serve drinks, let alone be PM. And what about Barnaby as DPM. Bloody scary!]

    Yes, but it should be great entertainment. It won’t take long for these supposedly superior economic managers to be exposed as the frauds they really are. And I can’t wait to see Abbott and Morrison trying to stop the the boats, especially this nonsense about turning them back. Good luck with that.

  22. wal kolla @ 109

    Gillard should of waited till October for the election.

    Can anyone explain to me why a political leader would call the election date 7 months out and in so doing give up the inherent advantage they have, through incumbency, of being able to call the election date 4-5 weeks out in a month, within limits, that best suits them.

  24. I find it strange when the media says obvious things like the Labor party could lose the election in Queensland alone! They could just as easily say the Labor party could lose governement in NT alone! I mean who in Australia does not know that?

  28. GUYTAUR @115

    The keyword is “alleged”. I know that is a hard word to understand for the leftards who would rather throw anyone they don’t agree with in the gulag. But if we pander to your delusion then the next question is “why do we have an alleged criminal mastermind who helped rip off hundreds of thousands of dollars from AWU workers, as the PM of this country”.. See what I did there ?

  29. Will there be any time bomb for Tony Abbott in the RC for Sexual Abuse especially in relation to Catholic Church #JustAsking

  32. I have that sinking feeling that the mooted changes to super are just like the media reform bills. They will never get through the House. They will arouse plenty of fear and loathing and accomplish nothing at all.

    The budget is in some trouble, for sure, but not as much trouble as the Government.

  33. Gauss

    [Can anyone explain to me why a political leader would call the election date 7 months out and in so doing give up the inherent advantage they have, through incumbency, of being able to call the election date 4-5 weeks out in a month, within limits, that best suits them.]

    Not me!

  34. Further my 114 above, Judith Sloan reminds us in today’s Australian of another reason why the $32B cost is bodgy.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/what-a-hide-bodgy-numbers-derail-the-debate/story-fnbkvnk7-1226611200429

    There also appear to be some outright errors in Treasury’s calculations. Imposing marginal tax rates for contributions and earnings ignores the fact that higher taxation on contributions reduces the inflow of funds. The higher taxation on earnings applies to a lower (post-tax) base, a fact overlooked by Treasury. The effect of its mistake is to inflate significantly the estimates of total super tax concessions.

  35. In the same link above Judith Sloan also reminds us that we have one of the most progressive income tax sales in the world & the most highly redistributive and targeted tax and transfer system in the world.

    And let’s be clear – high-income earners pay way more than their share of income tax revenue. The top 1 per cent pay 17 per cent of all tax revenue and the top 10 per cent pay nearly half.

    We have the most highly redistributive and targeted tax and transfer system of all developed economies, with the top 20 per cent of income-earners receiving only 3 per cent of all cash benefits, compared with the bottom 20 per cent, who receive 42 per cent.

  36. [MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, April 3, 2013 at 11:11 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    Sent by my sister and took my breath away!

    105
    leone
    Posted Wednesday, April 3, 2013 at 11:18 am | PERMALINK
    mari
    Amazing. But I did suspect from the start that he was going to do a Mr Squiggle and flip it right way up at the end.]

    Back again ye what an amazing talent he had, know something was going to be done towards the end, but what I found fascinating both hands were painting and he was in time all the time with his movements

  38. MTBW

    Thanks

    Interesting article.

    Latham is an odd mixture. If only his RW free marketeering agenda was a little less obvious and less a fundamental part of his philosophy, he might have been a good leader and I would have mourned his removal rather more.

    Intelligent and an ideas person he is what the ALP needs (without the violence and slightly nutty add ons). However fundamentally I think his extreme free marketeer views make him unsuited to the ALP

  39. [Can anyone explain to me why a political leader would call the election date 7 months out and in so doing give up the inherent advantage they have, through incumbency, of being able to call the election date 4-5 weeks out in a month, within limits, that best suits them.]

    Because it’s not necessarily an advantage? ANY decision JG could have made relating to the election date would have been attacked by those looking for any reason to attack Labor. Too early? Too late? Too close to important dates such as footy games? Too cynically opportunistic? Before the 2012-13 economic results are in? They’re all bad, even if they contradict each other.

    In the Queensland election Newman challenged Bligh to call it for the end of March, exactly three years since the previous election, implying that she shouldn’t hold on to power any longer than that. (She eventually did pick that date, for whatever her reasons were). Gillard would probably have been in the same position with people expecting an August election. So by calling it early she avoids that debate. She’s also made it about three years since the formation of the minority government.

  40. [Can anyone explain to me why a political leader would call the election date 7 months out and in so doing give up the inherent advantage they have, through incumbency, of being able to call the election date 4-5 weeks out in a month, within limits, that best suits them.]

    Because it’s not necessarily an advantage? ANY decision JG could have made relating to the election date would have been attacked by those looking for any reason to attack Labor. Too early? Too late? Too close to important dates such as footy games? Too cynically opportunistic? Before the 2012-13 economic results are in? They’re all bad, even if they contradict each other.

    In the Queensland election Newman challenged Bligh to call it for the end of March, exactly three years since the previous election, implying that she shouldn’t hold on to power any longer than that. (She eventually did pick that date, for whatever her reasons were). Gillard would probably have been in the same position with people expecting an August election. So by calling it early she avoids that debate. She’s also made it about three years since the formation of the minority government.

  41. Just on gay marriage – wouldn’t a simple solution be actually to call it “gay marriage” but it be legal? Polygamy is called polygamy but it’s not legal in Oz, but why change the name if it ever did become legal. So marriage stays what it is now, a man and woman, gay marriage is same-sex; so you’d be gay-married, married or maybe poly-married in the future if legalised.

  42. daretotread

    He is interesting and I think highly intelligent I agree on the free market stuff though.

    Glad he exposed the NSW Right for exactly what they are.

  44. Why?

    my assumptions
    1. To draw out the Rudd poison and all the MSM shock and awe with it
    2. To expose Abbott policy free zone

    optimally the gov should put a few runs on the board as well…this bit could be the problem

  47. Without abusing the Govt, I would really like Generic Person or any his fellow Abbott supporters here to tell me why Abbotts 15 per cent contributions tax on super for part time working mums and others who earn up to $37,000 policy is a good policy and worth voting for ?

  48. Oh, and please add in my prevous post “poly-gay-married” as a further category if eventually legalised. In other words just call each legal union exactly what it is.

  49. [Can anyone explain to me why a political leader would call the election date 7 months out and in so doing give up the inherent advantage they have, through incumbency, of being able to call the election date 4-5 weeks out in a month, within limits, that best suits them.]

    Someone in the strategy think-tank thought it was a great idea just like East Timor, Climate Community Concensus, New Julia, The Rio/BHP MRRT, Budget Surplus, Slipper Speaker, Class Warfare, Abbott Mysogynist, Media War etc.

    Well at least Abbott Mysogynist worked for a while.

  50. I had a look at the word marriage in the dictionary

    The social institution under which a man and woman establish their decision to live as husband and wife by legal commitments, religious ceremonies, etc

    I guess there will need to be a re-definition of marriage.

    I don’t understand what the benefits are of marriage over unions? Marriage has always a religious overtone.

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