BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Two more grim poll results send Labor further south in the latest weekly poll aggregate.

BludgerTrack finds Labor’s tailspin continuing as the trend catches up with the slump that has followed last fortnight’s leadership fiasco, with two new polls (both conducted despite the interruption of Easter) adding further fuel to the fire. Labor sheds a further 1.6% on the primary vote and 1.1% on two-party preferred, with the seat projection putting the Coalition shy of a century that would be achieved with the gain of just one independent seat.

The new poll results are from Essential Research and Morgan’s new multi-mode series, which supplements their much-maligned face-to-face polling with online surveying, and which I am now introducing to BludgerTrack for the first time. The results are being adjusted with bias measures obtained against the poll trend itself, so adding it will not introduce any bias to the model that isn’t there already. So far, the move looks to be producing results more typical of phone polling than the notoriously Labor-leaning face-to-face series. This year Morgan has published five face-to-face followed by five multi-mode polls, and the average deviations from the trend have been as follows:

Face-to-face: Labor +1.0%, Coalition -3.9%, Greens +0.7%.
Multi-mode: Labor -1.4%, Coalition -0.9%, Greens +1.5%.

The latter set of numbers are the ones I am currently using for the bias adjustment (I will recalculate this each week), and they’re very similar to those I’m using for Galaxy.

The other development in BludgerTrack is that Newspoll’s quarterly aggregate has been added to the state differentials calculation, which again puts Victoria’s anti-Labor swing ahead of New South Wales. One possibly unfortunate consequence of the new numbers being added is that any post-leadership crisis effect in Queensland is being further obscured by a result that was four-fifths derived from before the event.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. DTT

    I checked the Quarterly Newspoll, the lower house ALP vote was 30% for the last 3 month, are they likely to lose 2% to the likes of Sex party, KAP, FF, 3 day weekend, shooters, Democrats etc in the upper house. I think it is more then likely

  2. [“8 of the 21 hottest days on record have occurred so far this year” That’s extraordinary.
    Read more: smh.com.au/environment/we…]

  3. [Very sobering news for anyone who lives here. Yet the coalition are still persisting with this nonsense that planting trees and paying farmers for soil sequestration is a sensible, effective carbon abatement program.]

    confessions Actually frightening. What happens to those trees if fires or floods destroy them. It’s going to have to be very selective planting.

    I saw some comments about Hunt being a drivelling mess on telly this morning. Life is going to be fun watching this bloke flip flop around over the next few years.

  4. victoria:

    Abbott is the epitome of laziness.

    [”Unbeknown to the minister … a person … might have recently lost his or her specialist accreditation or have been suspended from practice,” Judge Katzmann said. ”A doctor may have become infirm or erratic.”]

    Imagine if any of these things had happened….

  5. Victoria!

    [Judge Anna Katzmann ruled that these GP members had not been validly appointed because the then health minister Tony Abbott had not consulted the Australian Medical Association before appointing them.]

    If any other Union insisted that appointments be referred to them there’d be an outcry but one of the most militant unions in the country gets away with it – as always.

  6. [ What happens to those trees if fires or floods destroy them. It’s going to have to be very selective planting.]

    BH:

    We are not managing our existing bushland and reserves for reducing fire risk as it is.

    Frightening is a very apt description!

  7. fess Agree with you that McGowan missed a great opportunity when he decried carbon pricing. He could’ve used Perth’s rotten weather over the past year as a starting point. Dumb, dumb, and dumber.

    Even the old National rednecks around us are worried at the changes we’re seeing and are changing their growing times, etc. We’ve also got a very noticeable lack of bees over the past 2 or 3 years and that doesn’t make for good veggie crops.

  8. Meher Baba

    “So if they are trying to raise billions of dollars, they must also be going after these people ‘s savings and going retrospective as well.”

    Not necessarily, even assuming your computations are correct.

    1) Any income level cutoff point is at this stage unknown.

    2) Tax concessions on high income earners within-fund super earnings could be tightened.

    3) From what reliable government source have you learned that the government is trying to raise “billions” from alterations to super?

    “what’s to stop them moving down the food chain”

    They may move down the food chain to some small extent.

    But why would the only party in Australia which conceived compulsory super, legislated it, and as recently as in the last year argued for its increase do anything to damage it in any fundamental way.

    Don’t fall for Abbott’s spiel ….. “they’ll raid your savings”.

    And as to his scare mongering “if they do it to your neighbour they’ll later do it to you”, this is correct. But the vast majority of us do not have neighbours in the top 10% or so of earning capacity.

  9. [Gold Walkley award-winning journalist Steve Pennells says stronger laws to protect journalists and their sources are in the public interest.

    _The West Australian _ journalist, who has five Walkleys and is facing court action from billionaire Gina Rinehart to reveal sources behind a series of explosive articles about Mrs Rinehart’s bitter legal battle with three of her four children, says such actions are muzzling the press.

    “I know journalists who are reluctant to write about Gina Rinehart because of what is happening and I know sources who are reluctant to talk about Gina Rinehart because of what is happening to us,” Pennells said]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/16515121/journalists-seek-more-protection/

    Scary insight into Rinehart given she is a media shareholder.

  10. confessions

    Where are the front page headlines in the Herald Sun and Daily Terror decrying the freedom of the press now. What a frickin joke they all are

  11. BH

    [fess Agree with you that McGowan missed a great opportunity when he decried carbon pricing]
    McGowan was verballed on that . Mind you he may not have been too bothered by being so. Take this article..
    He said
    [ Mr McGowan said he opposed a carbon tax but was in favour of an emissions trading scheme, ]

    Yet we read……
    [Western Australia’s Labor leader Mark McGowan has distanced himself from Prime Minister Julia Gillard by saying he opposes the carbon tax ahead of next month’s state election.]

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/state-election-2013/wa-labor-leader-against-carbon-tax-20130211-2e7i7.html#ixzz2PLfP6MSV

  12. confessions

    It is so blatant. They have absolutely no shame. Yet do the public even bother to note what is happening in our own democracy.

  13. Regarding media freedom. I think it is a sign of how much we need media reform that the journalists were not able to make this a huge issue when media reform was being debated.

    There were a few posts on twitter. A few articles tucked away on websites (I do not read print).

    Basically the owners buried this attack on press freedom when the government was debating laws. I am hoping that debate on shield laws does something to address this.

    Freedom of journalists in this situation is part of protecting whistelblowers ability to come forward with evidence.

  14. ASPS
    Yes Katter and the Greens will be fighting it out for a Senate spot but they are also fighting Labor and LNP.

    I cant see that the LNP got 2.9 quotas last time and I think there votes will rise. A third possibility is if the ASP stays ahead of the liberal democrats we might be able to jump in front of the greens and take the last senate seat. When it comes to social issues the liberal democrats the ASP and the greens have allot in common. Sticking together makes sense. Shooters preferences would help as well.

  15. On current polling, Kate Ellis better start handing out her CV – Lyons and Franklin look like going to the libs as well – And I think that Wilkie will hold his seat in Tasmania – so no ALP seats there. Gray Gary’s seat looks in doubt too.

    On brighter news, the Idiot of Lilley looks like losing his seat and former cool guy Peter Garrett looks like he will be singing for his supper again.

    The saddest thing for the ALP is that the people who have destroyed the Party are going to retain their seats.

    None of the parties inspire me to register with the AEC to vote though.

    LNP slogan is “STOP THE BOATS”
    ALP slogan is “STUFF THE VOTERS”
    Inspiring stuff that.

    I’d like to see what would happen if one side won no seats. That would be rather funny. QLD came close.

    5 months to go.

  16. guytaur 5,000 people speaking out is going to take a lot of time. Abbott, if he wins Govt., will probably get instructions (or is that spiritual advice) from Pell try to bring the enquiry to a pretty quick end.

    I can already hear Hockey ranting about the cost of it. I hope the community screams loudly if they try to interfere.

  17. [I have trouble supporting the ALP since they refuse to recognize gay marriage.]

    Why don’t you start the Australian Gay Sex Party…. 😛

    Dare to be different….

  18. I have trouble supporting the ALP since they refuse to recognize gay marriage.

    Why don’t you start the Australian Gay Sex Party….

    Dare to be different….

    It would not be started by me but I might preference them.

  19. [It would not be started by me but I might preference them.]

    Would you preference the AGSP over the ASP?? 😛

    Sorry, I am being norty.

    I must admit I find it hard to take the Sex Party seriously… Why they couldn’t come up with a more appealing name is beyond me.

  20. BH

    I think the Royal Commission now it is started will be unstoppable.
    All Abbott and company could do if they win government is not to extend it.

  21. It would not be started by me but I might preference them.

    Would you preference the AGSP over the ASP??

    Sorry, I am being norty.

    I must admit I find it hard to take the Sex Party seriously… Why they couldn’t come up with a more appealing name is beyond me.

    Well Australian democrats seem to be taken. Slightly ironically Austrlian Liberals are taken. I guess the ASP could change there name to the Austrlian progressive party but its not like I started it and you make do with what you have got.

  22. sprocket@44. Martin has changed his article a bit, but it is still full of errors. I have absolutely no idea what he means by his statement in relation to an income earner over $1 million that his or her employer “pays a legislated maximum of $17,190 per year into a super fund of his or her choice”.

    Employers can pay whatever they want into a super fund of an employee: there’s no maximum. The maximum level is $25,000 totalling both the employer contribution and anything the employee wants to put in, beyond which the top marginal tax rate applies (potentially plus penalties: I’m not sure how they work). I’ve met a lot of people – including workers in the mining industry – whose employer contribution alone takes them above the $25,000 threshold. Some have already negotiated their employer contribution downwards.

    But an even more bizarre aspect of Martin’s article is that, having given an example of an employee on $1 million who has benefited from the difference between the 15 percent tax rate and the top marginal rate, he states that “in the last budget the government promised to boost the tax rate for very high earners to 30 per cent, cutting the size of the gift to a still substantial $2836”.

    Wrong, Peter. The Government didn’t “promise” to do this, they did it.

    And a “still substantial” $2836″ equates to less than $60 per week. Not that substantial, really. Less than the typical tax benefit received by people who negatively gear property. I’m no tax expert, but I reckon someone with a negatively geared home unit worth around $250,000 – which is eminently affordable – might be able to do better taxwise than $2836.

    The article is crap and he’s now just trying to put lipstick on a pig.

  23. Hmm just got given a donut.
    I remember the first time I had a donut I thought it was like vadai and I asked for some coconut chutney with it.

    Was I shocked that a donut was sweet and had no spice.

    I like donuts a lot now. You can get so many varities and all are called donuts. Some have holes in the middle, so have no hole and jam. I like the plain one with cinnamom best. The crispy cream ones I dont like because it is like filling one’s mouth with grease.

  24. [Well Australian democrats seem to be taken. Slightly ironically Austrlian Liberals are taken. I guess the ASP could change there name to the Austrlian progressive party but its not like I started it and you make do with what you have got]

    It sounds like a union for sex workers. Whores have been around since the beginning of time – doesn’t sound progressive to me.

  25. [ have trouble supporting the ALP since they refuse to recognize gay marriage.]

    Did they? I thought they allowed a free vote in the Parliament. Just a pity that the LNP couldn’t do the same.
    Whether we like it or not, it’s still a matter of conscience for so many people.

  26. Well Australian democrats seem to be taken. Slightly ironically Austrlian Liberals are taken. I guess the ASP could change there name to the Austrlian progressive party but its not like I started it and you make do with what you have got

    It sounds like a union for sex workers. Whores have been around since the beginning of time – doesn’t sound progressive to me.

    Socially it is progressive, but then we can get in a discussion about what is liberalism, socialism, what have you, conservatism is. You really should not look at a parties name for what a party stands for. Just look at what it means to be a liberal in the US and Australia. Or more importantly what is a progressive conservative? It sounds like an oxymoron. Labels never make sense. In Portugal the social democrats are a right wing party. Always look past a parties label into what it stands.

  27. ASPs # 85:

    Quite. And of course countries with “democaratic republic” in their name are generally the ones who aren’t democratic.

  28. walkolla In SA the jam donuts (no holes) were called Berliners. Absolutely loved them.

    The biggest treat for SA kids of my era were Balfour’s kitchener buns. Great, big, huge balls of donut mixture, sliced across the centre and filled with raspberry jam and fresh (real) cream. Stuffingly good 🙂

    Not surprisingly that at my age now they are off the treat menu.

  29. Thank good for the The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. It should be called The Kim famalies dictatorial playground.

  30. Same sex couples have been offered civil unions but are not happy with that, they want that marriage certificate.

    There’s a simple solution to the same sex marriage impasse. Abolish the Marriage Act and replace it with a Civil Unions Act. Everyone who wants to make their relationship legal has a civil ceremony conducted by a public official. Those who want to frock/suit up and spend $40,000 or so on a ‘special day’ can also have a church wedding or a service with a celebrant or rent Taronga Zoo for a party or do whatever takes their fancy, but it’s the civil ceremony that makes it all legal. It’s the civil ceremony that gives you the certificate.

    This makes everyone happy. The religiously minded can still have their religious ceremonies, the party-goeers can still have their fun and the same sex couples get exactly the same certificate as straight couples.

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  32. leone

    Over the Catholic Church’s dead body.

    Just one example of why that commons sense practical solution will not work.

    That is just one body that will do all it can to stop equality.

  33. “@ABCNews24: Furness: (Catholic) Truth Justice & Healing Council will be advising religious orders not to be held back by confidentiality agreements.”

  34. leone

    That won’t happen in the forseeable future. The simple and easy answer in the meantime is to legislate to remove the six discriminatory words from the Marriage Act. Why not? It doesn’t materially hurt anyone, and would be popular to boot.

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