Seat of the week: Capricornia

It took the landslide defeats of the Whitlam and Keating governments to loosen Labor’s grip on the central Queensland seat of Capricornia. The risk of a repeat has increased with the recently announced retirement of sitting member Kirsten Livermore.

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).

The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.

A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.

The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,019 comments on “Seat of the week: Capricornia”

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  1. “@Simon_Cullen: Abbott: “When you get rid of the carbon tax, you don’t need the carbon tax compensation.” (1/2)”

    “@Simon_Cullen: Abbott: “Now we’ll certainly keep paying a substantial proportion of that – exactly how much, we’ll say closer to the election.” (2/2)”

    On the latter statement I think they mean to give us time to come up with a credible lie.

  2. [One of the very “senior” journos we contacted confirmed that the stories start at News, then to the ABC to launder them clean (the ABC is “Respected” as a news source, after all), and then back to news and Fairfax, then out to the mugs.]

    Which makes what little diversity we have in our media outlets worth sod all!

    Honestly, it all sounds like a corruption ring.

  4. [And then there’s me….. I’m the black sheep. It must have been that subversive teacher training what dun it. I used to be such a nice, well brought up young gel.]

    leone – ah, but the black sheep is much more interesting 🙂

    lizzie I read Gittins’ piece on Joe and I’m a bit stumped. Joe always seems to be all jaw to me so if he ends up as Treasurer what will we get. Gittins seems confident.

  5. “You know Abbott has lunch at News Corp every week, don’t you?”

    Has this been put out on twitter to see if any person in the know (journalists) responds or whether it has been/will be met with deathly silence?

  6. Mithranir,

    A telling paragraph:

    [Chronically low in the polls, everything Prime Minister Julia Gillard seems to do is interpreted in terms of her low popularity. If she managed to walk across Sydney Harbour today, the only headline tomorrow would be that the PM can’t swim.]

  7. I used to look first at “Just in” on ABC online but no longer bother. They put up fewer items now and seem slow.

  8. I don’t see why the idea of Abbott having lunch at News Limited every week is such a surprise. I reckon Rudd would have had lunch with his mate Chris Mitchell pretty regularly before they fell out (and probably again more recently since they kissed and made up). When Rupert Murdoch is in Australia, he can meet pretty much any politician he likes whenever he likes.

    Rupert’s dad allegedly used to have Joe Lyons in to see him at least once a week. Lyons, despite being the Prime Minister, allegedly used to stand until invited to sit down and then say, respectfully, “What can I do for you sir?”

    Without wanting to dampen the enthusiasm of the PB brigade, I don’t think it’s much of a smoking gun, really.

  11. Interesting views from gittens and people here on hockey. If I recall correctly, the liberal leadership was there for the taking when turnbull imploded (or exploded) and he chose not to run.

  12. meher baba

    It wouldn’t be a surprise to those already ‘in the know’, but there are many here (and in the twitterworld) who genuinely believe that JG can’t do anything right and TA is a political genius. Just saying TA is supported by media has been dismissed as sour grapes, but evidence from a working journo says it’s not imagination.

  13. [Without wanting to dampen the enthusiasm of the PB brigade, I don’t think it’s much of a smoking gun, really.]

    How dare you take away the possibility of a conspiracy theory!! How could you?

  14. Without wanting to dampen the enthusiasm of the PB brigade, I don’t think it’s much of a smoking gun, really.

    It’s not about being a smoking gun. It is about transparency in dealings between the Press and politicians. It is the ‘context’ don’t you know…

  15. zoomster@1780: Hockey is (if you’ll forgive the paradox) a lightweight. Like Rudd, the public like him because he comes across as a personable sort of guy on TV.

    People in his party don’t like him much: despite his public image as “Jolly Joe”, he can be a very nasty man when crossed.

    Someone I know who has a fair bit to do with the Liberal Party told me that, if you ask most of the elected Liberal members in Federal Parliament to compare the three current leading lights of the party you usually get the following score card:

    Abbott: liked but not respected (other than a growing respect for his ability as a political campaigner)
    Turnbull: respected but not liked (very high-handed and often quite aggressive)
    Hockey: neither liked nor respected (but, like Rudd, his popularity with the public is seen as a plus by many)

    On this basis, most currently prefer Abbott, although they are worried that their lack of respect for his policy mind might eventually be shared by the public.

  17. There is a survey on liveability out today by the Property Council./ It is worth a read because it is based on reader responses and you can download reports for individual cities and see what respondents rated as the key issues. Sydney came second last for liveability.

    See
    http://www.propertyoz.com.au/library/F%20-%20REPORT%20-%20SYDNEY.pdf

    The attributes that Sydney’s residents felt were most important in making a city a good place to live were:
    – Being a safe place for people and their property;
    – Having a good healthcare service; and
    – Having good employment and economic opportunities.

    Key factors that led Sydney to its low performance were its deficiencies in:
    – Being an affordable place to have a good standard of living;
    – Being clean, well maintained and unpolluted; and
    – Having a good road network and minimal traffic congestion.

  19. BBS,

    So you think it is a good thing for our democracy that Abbott sees a need to dine with the head of the Murdoch empire on a weekly basis?

  20. GG

    It appears that the Overland saga is coming home to roost for Baillieu et al. Still scratching my head as to why whoever was holding onto the audio tape, decided now was the right time to release it?

  22. Re the response to my comment about the absence of a “smoking gun”.

    You’d have to prove that the regular lunch between Abbott and News Ltd people was something more than a courtesy meeting. You’d need proof that detailed tactics were discussed, or that Abbott was somehow doing News Ltd’s bidding: eg, if you could show that News Ltd had threatened to switch its support to Gillard unless Abbott continued to oppose the NBN, you’d really have something.

    As things stand, News Ltd is well known to the community as a massively pro-Liberal organisation. The fact that they have the leader of the political party they so strongly support round to lunch regularly is really just confirmation of that, nothing more.

  25. This is even more hilarious

    [The tapes also reveal that Mr Weston was repeatedly offered help in finding a new job by the Premier’s most senior adviser, Tony Nutt – actions at odds with Ted Baillieu’s public assurances that his office was not assisting the former adviser.

    “I mean, I know Gina Rinehart,” Mr Nutt told Mr Weston in a phone conversation on July 10, 2012.]

  26. vic,

    Seems to me that one or the other side in these conversations recorded them. I doubt Tony Nutt did it.

    So it’s all part of the internal Lib squabble to get rid of Bailleau and Ryan. It’s open warfare on the Lib side.

  28. rossmcg@1811


    Interesting views from gittens and people here on hockey. If I recall correctly, the liberal leadership was there for the taking when turnbull imploded (or exploded) and he chose not to run.

    Didn’t Hockey run, came third and then his votes went to Abbot and Turnbull, electing Abbot by 1 vote?

  29. Thomas Paine

    [Anybody wanting to study crowd psychology could come here. Where the irrational is protected at any cost.]

    I absolutely agree, that’s why I find this place so fascinating! It is almost morbidly fascinating to see people so blindly committed to ideology (or more correctly, a party which has changed the focus of its ideology constantly since WW2).

    This means that they constantly have to experience cognitive dissonnance to justify positions which are irrational, poorly conceived, a complete 180 degree turnaround or just plain dumb (as viewed by the average punter).

    As I have been studying the furniture of PB longterm I have noticed that commenters tend to follow predictable and increasingly narrow patterns of argument, often reduced to a line, phrase or even just a label.

    This is pretty common in cultures where an ideology is supported verbally or linguistically on a daily basis. For example, many sects of orthodox jews are supposed to say prayers on washing their hands every time they do. Instead, many have a nicely ornamented tile, with the prayer written out. As they wash, they simply nod and point to the tile and say the equivalent of “and that!” as they do.

    In this room, when a recognised objection to the labor party arises, the tendency is to do a similar thing. Fair enough in a sense, because every conceivable issue at least to date has been thrashed to death.

    It also explains why every newcomer (or even furniture like myself) who posts such criticisms causes the furniture to automatically switch to “DEFENCE OF EVIL LIBERALS!!!” and throw verbal grenades and abuse. It is a reflex.

    When you constantly have to defend a group of people, supposedly around core ideologies (though these are more myth and narrative to rally emotional support and are disposable to modern ALP leaders) you tend to overreact and assume that everyone who questions you is an enemy. The same behaviour is evident of settlers on the West Bank or Gaza strip (from either ‘side’).

    The curious thing is that this government has been slipperier with policy than any in our lifetime. Usual ‘buttons’ on these:
    1. ETS/Carbon tax/attitude to climate change (Coalition also quite guilty here!!)
    2. Attitude to illegal arrivals by boat (ALP all over the place, Coalition, consistent but discompassionate, many would argue reasonably)
    3. Support of Rudd.
    4. Dropping of policies before implementation: (hate the term but) ‘cash for clunkers’, ‘citizens assembly’ etc. To not go ahead it appears that principles & policy come after polling and focus groups…. to the public, smacks of popularity politics.
    5. Poorly conceived/rushed policy.

    These are issues which cause conflict cognitively, because on the one hand, the ‘average person in the street’ test can show a basic problem with the decision or policy but self-criticism publicly is not done (and wisely so) if at all possible with political parties.

    If, however, there are SO many of the issues listed, one after the other, the cognitive dissonnance is extreme. This can cause increased cortisol levels and has been found in groups like settlers on the Gaza strip, people who live in Afghanistan with constant tension and in cultists (particularly doomsday cultists) in the US who are constantly scrutinised by those outside. As a result, emotional responses initiated by the Amygdala, rather than the cerebrum (which normally takes over from more primal Amygdalian affective control some phase during or after adolescence).

    You can see why it is interesting. It is very similar to doomsday cults because wild predictions are made, predicated on circular reasoning, groupthink and myths, narratives believed by the group. At election in 2010, the furniture in this room predicted variously extreme numbers of seats for the ALP which ranged from 83-100 seats. I think mine, calculated on the basis of marginal seat betting market weighted means, was, I think 74 (maybe 73??). In any case, I found a probable set of outcomes, slightly more than half pointing to a hung parliament.

    Of course, I expected the ensuing ‘howling down’ in derision. As predictable as it was unwarranted. What is more intriguing is how so many were so wrong when their lives are entwined with politics on a daily basis. Again the psychology of doomsday cult behaviour is relevant. I expected many to depart PB and give up, since the predictions were wildly wrong, with a PM desperately clinging to power and now, with a bleak outlook for re-election. Yet those that were here are still largely here.

    There is certainly more than one PhD in the millions of words posted here 😉 Wouldn’t you agree, William?

  30. GG

    Yep they want Baillieu and Ryan gone. The Liberal family are not happy with the lack of progress in liberalisng the State of victoria

  32. [ So you think it is a good thing for our democracy that Abbott sees a need to dine with the head of the Murdoch empire on a weekly basis? ]

    Actually, for the first time ever, I have some sympathy for the Murdochthons. Fancy being offered the chance to be the secret overlords of Australia, but then being told the price was that you had to have lunch every week with Tony Abbott?

  34. b

    Hockey’s candidacy disappeared in a puff of smoke. Following a meeting he had with Howard he tweeted a request for people’s views on AGW.

    In a Liberal leadership contest triggered by climate denialists that was goodbye Joe, and thanks for the laughs.

  39. Apparently the Clean Up Australia thing Abbott was at yesterday was organised and attended by the Liberals and their faithful.

    Talk about rent-a-crowd. And here we were thinking he was being all altruistic.

  42. meher baba: not a bad position for Abbott to be in. ie – winning respect for his political campaigning.
    Scope then to win respect on policy, governance, management of cabinet if/when he gets into office. After all, Abbott was never rated by most of his party room – he truly was an accidental leader.

  43. pensioners and families have to realise what the word
    compensation means
    re abbott

    taking away the extra financial gains given by the gov,
    to cover the the price on carbon
    a another pension pay rise starts this month.

    .
    yes we have tosay what we have done and given
    but the people must be told abbott will

    take away

    this morning i ask someone ‘ now tell me what will abbott do for you’ the look was blank

    the answer was well ‘ nothing much i would think’

    said well why on earth would you vote liberal

    ‘dont know was the answer when you put it like that,’

    try it ive done a few times now,
    then i mention the compensation,

    some people have been brain washed and have not thought it through

  44. Every day in every way, the tenacles of corruption are slowly being exposed in the Fiberal family.

    I mentioned yesterday the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons. The fun and games have only just commenced

  45. Bushfire Bill, and yet we’re supposed to believe that the culture of the Murdoch press is somehow different in Australia! All that stuff happens to other people, like the English, so why should we be concerned.

  46. BW,

    Yea, the old I’ve been a Labor person for years but,….. routine seems to be alive and well with Bluepill.

    All I add is that the profile of these doyens of the Party tends to be grumpy old middle class white guys who can’t stand petticoat rule.

    Bob Dylan wrote 50 years ago, “Please get out the way, if you can’t lend a hand, For the times they are a chang’in”.

  47. victoria
    And Sinodinos has not even begun to be quizzed on the precise nature of his dealings in the not-for-profits. Were they tax avoidance vehicles? Were they vehicles for transferring government subsidies into the pay of directors?

    Why was he in such a hurry to close this down in public… so much so that he was willing to foregoe $3.5 million?

    Lots of questions.

  48. Tony Nutt, who served as a very senior adviser to John Howard for a decade or so, is a real old-style party apparatchik: similar to Labor figures such as Stephen Loosley or David Combe.

    He’s at his best dealing with the party faithful and rich donors and the like. He isn’t a man you would want to go to for policy or strategic advice, which is why Howard installed Sinodinos above him.

    The fact that he was installed as the head of Baillieu’s office when he was is an indication of how worried senior Liberal Party figures were about Ted’s performance as Premier: that is, he was installed to put a lid on the problems.

    To me, both Nutt’s heavyweight political power and his lack of strategic nous shine through in the transcripts that have been published so far.

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