Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than the last on voting intention, but Julia Gillard has lost her lead as preferred prime minister.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, down from 56-44 at the previous poll three weeks ago, with both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 31% and 47% respectively and the Greens up two to 11%. Tony Abbott has apparently hit the lead as preferred prime minister; more to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Julia Gillard’s ratings have plunged yet further, her approval down six points to 30% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is effectively unchanged at 33% (steady) and 55% (down one), but his 41-39 deficit on preferred prime minister is now a lead of 40-36.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face result combines the last two weekends of polling, and it shows the Coalition sustaining a commanding primary vote lead of 44% (down one) to 33.5% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 10%. On respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition lead has narrowed from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5, while on previous election preferences it’s down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Other news:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has accepted Julian Assange’s enrolment in the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, which clears him to proceed with his Senate bid unless someone cares to mount a legal challenge. I had expected that Assange might fall foul of the requirement that a person enrolling overseas must intend to resume residing in Australia within six years of having left. To the best of my admittedly limited knowledge, Assange was last here furtively in 2007. Another legal grey area is his political asylum status, and what it might mean for the constitutional injunction that parliamentarians not be “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or … a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”.

• Gary Humphries, who has held the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat since 2003 and was the territory’s Chief Minister from October 2000 to November 2001, has lost preselection to Zed Seselja, leader of the ACT opposition through five years and two election defeats. Seselja prevailed in the contentious party ballot on Saturday by margin of 114 to 84. Humphries says he will abide by the result, but even before the vote his supporters had petitioned for it to be referred to a divisional council meeting on the grounds that the process had been rushed to Seselja’s advantage. That would throw the vote open to around 400 extra party members who were denied a vote because they hadn’t attended a branch meeting in six months.

• With Seselja standing aside from the leadership to contest the Senate preselection, the ACT Liberals have chosen Molonglo MP Jeremy Hanson as their new leader ahead of former leader Brendan Smyth. This was despite Gary Humphries’ claim that a deal had been reached between Seselja and another MP, Alistair Coe, in which Seselja would decisively throw his weight behind Coe in exchange for Coe’s support for his Senate preselection bid (which was nonetheless forthcoming, along with that of the remainder of the Liberal party room). Humphries claimed his decision to reveal the deal to the public caused it to come undone, although Coe denied it had ever been made. Coe won the party room ballot for the deputy leadership, unseating Smyth.

• Natasha Griggs, the Country Liberal Party member for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon since she unseated Labor’s Damian Hale in 2010, has seen off a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a clinical immunologist at Royal Darwin Hospital. In January the Northern Territory News reported a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.

• A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden, who had been an aspirant for the seat when Ferguson moved there after his existing seat of Reid was merged with neighbouring Lowe at the 2010 election. Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Ogden has some support from both the “hard” and “soft” left, respectively associated with Anthony Albanese and the United Voice union, although it appears to be generally expected that Ferguson will see off the threat. A report by Samantha Maiden in the Sunday Telegraph suggests that might not avail him in the long run, with union polling conducted late last year said to point to a decisive swing against Labor of 13%.

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advertiser reports the Liberal preselection for Greenway has been set for March 9, with 12 shortlisted candidates including 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson, Hills councillor Yvonne Keane and “anti-bullying campaigner and motivational speaker” Brett Murray. Also in the field are business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, accountant Mark Jackson, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jayme. The choice will be made from a panel of delegates from the electorate’s five branches and head office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,100 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Gosh zoidlord, we are not still trotting out that “Peak Abbott” stuff are we? 🙂

    How many years has it been since Gweneth was trying to convince us that she had this epiphany and Abbott was about to become unpopular and drag down the LNP vote?????

  2. Or how about:

    “The truth is, I cannot get rid of Swan as treasurer cos I rely on Ludwig for support, so I figure the best thing to do for the ALP is exit stage left and let the new leader dump Swan to give us some semblance of a chance in September”

  3. @mod lib/4002

    well it’s like the career of a singer, you have your highes which are your peaks and then you have lows.


    Sounds like IR2.0.

  4. 4003

    Abbot and many other Liberals may want large scale child labour back as part of their industrial policies but it is not around at the moment and even if it was most families with working children would not vote for Abbott.

  5. I would be very interested to see the results of a poll on the Coalition’s asylum seeker “tracking” policy. I suspect it would be extremely popular.

    This is what progressive forces in Australia are up against. At best the average voter doesn’t give a shit about asylum seekers, at worst they actively want them dead. There’s so much resentment out there for brown people I don’t see how it can be overcome.

  6. [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:01 am | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/4004

    Pretty easy, you can’t get rid of Peter Costello.]

    Talking about the old smerk, what a document he put together for QLD…. wow

  7. Mod Lib@4004

    Or how about:

    “The truth is, I cannot get rid of Swan as treasurer cos I rely on Ludwig for support, so I figure the best thing to do for the ALP is exit stage left and let the new leader dump Swan to give us some semblance of a chance in September”

    Next time you come back as a dung beetle just for that alone – no matter how much merit you make.

  8. One aims not to come back at all, but if one does, one is confident that one would be at least at the level of a human being, if not a level or two above that…

  9. I wouldn’t be ruling out Pell as Pope too quickly. Just consider his attributes: totally irrational belief system; murky kiddy-fiddling cover-up past; social disconnect from the real world; pre-Copernican beliefs in things other than imaginary beings (eg CC denier); support of catastrophic control of the world’s poor so they breed beyond their means. Perfect. They’d love him. Go George!

  10. JV:

    Let us see whether he meets the criteria:

    Old? tick
    White? tick
    Male? tick
    Against homosexuals? tick
    Does not think women are up to it? tick

    Hes gotta be a chance at least.

  11. Mod Lib@4015

    One aims not to come back at all, but if one does, one is confident that one would be at least at the level of a human being, if not a level or two above that…

    Well you must have done some seriously bad stuff to come back as a tory 🙂

  12. [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:06 am | PERMALINK

    What suggesting that we sell everything?]

    Beautiful one day, sold the next.
    Tough choices need to be made when there is no money in the kitty

  13. Re Lyons post 3992
    In 1931,Lyons ratted on the dying ALP Govt of Scullin and with some ALP members joined up to form a new conservative party ..The United Australia Party…in the depths of the Depression

    Lyons ..a catholic..had a life time of ALP membership….and was a Tasmanian Premier before entering the Fed P’ment
    He (and his formidable wife Enid) were pressured by Keith Murdoch and other power-brokers and offered the PM’s job if he would leave the ALP and bring down Scullin
    He did and when the Govt collapsed he was swept to power in 1931 and died in office in 1939
    Lyons ,even when in the ALP was a natural conservative on all issues abd shared his wife’s conservative values

    He was a very onvenient facade for the real conservatives who ran his regime..and a most dour and uninspiring man he was in every way

    He ruled over a dark and miserable decade for many Australians,following as he did…the economic orthodoxy of the day

    a small example.
    In Victoria…under the austerity plan…school children going on to the few High Schools of the day, had to pay a fee..which caused many kids from poor working class families to end their chances for asecondary education

    this was in the name of economic rationalism

  14. @rummel/4021

    How about all that money that QLD Liberals pocketing give back to the Tax payers? And while we at it, half the pay the State MP’s get?

  15. After watching Newman and Terry Smith can hardly wait to see what PM Abbott and Gov General Howard/Pell have in store for Australia.

    Well hopefully there will be a Senate that can limit him.

  16. [Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:08 am | PERMALINK

    Let us see whether he meets the criteria:

    Old? tick
    White? tick
    Male? tick
    Against homosexuals? tick
    Does not think women are up to it? tick

    Hes gotta be a chance at least.]

    Plus he is great at playing the “nothing to see here people, move along now”.

  17. It’s pretty clear they got Mark Kenny is in on a contract from News to run the Ruddstoration Bureau at Fairfax.

    What a tosser. The man never shuts up about Rudd coming back. He’s obsessed.

    He deserves to be laughed out of town.

    Someone ought to tap him on the shoulder and tell him, “Mate, it’s over.”

    Rudd’s made more non-existent comebacks than I’ve had hot dinners. He’s gone.

  18. I’m fairly sure even among the desiccated remnants of the Catholic hierarchy in Europe support forchromate science orthodoxy is pretty strong. I reckon Incurious George would have his ridiculous views on the subject held against him.

  19. Mod Lib@4022


    Or perhaps I am doing the bad stuff now and will come back as a champagne socialist?

    Well – maybe if you make enough merit you might come back with a better sense of fairness and equity as opposed to the wealthy getting the lions share.

    Better health, education, NDID, Gonski etc which IF they come, will not be from the libs.

    Labor are not perfect by any means but have improved the living standards and fairness and safety of workers etc more than the libs will ever do or have ever done.

    Work Choices?

    Getting late for me.

    More another day perhaps?

  20. AbsoluteTwaddle @4008

    I think you are absolutely correct. And in fact this is a kind of perfect storm for JG as she prepares to land in Rooty Hill. As if the punters out there weren’t already thoroughly cheesed off with the Government, along comes an issue like this to ram home the strong sentiment in favour of the LNP. Of course it’s dog whistle politics but the sad fact is that many, many voters out there hear the whistle, and even sadder, many of those are immigrants themselves.

  21. [Of course it’s dog whistle politics but the sad fact is that many, many voters out there hear the whistle, and even sadder, many of those are immigrants themselves.]

    Yes they will and you could tell by how hard the greens came to the PMs rescue again.

    [many of those are immigrants themselves]

    Yep, because they did it the right way!.

  22. [jaundiced view
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:13 am | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib
    Yes. Last time I looked George was 66-1. A lazy 10 wouldn’t hurt.]

    A tithe on Pell for a motza.

    I like it 🙂

  23. [Can Pell speak any other languages? The ability to talk to the masses seems important… Kev for Pope.]
    He is fluent in speaking bullshit.

    Like constantly.

  24. alias

    To that end I can see where the Greens are coming from policy-wise on the AS issue. However if they were fully implemented something like 3/4 of the voting populations would want it immediately replaced with a system of yellow badges and forcible tattooing of serial numbers. Maybe camps.

    Okay that is hyperbole but sometimes I wonder…

    The AS issue is way up there with the economy in terms if issues of importance to the average voter. It’s fucking INSANE it’s given so much prominence and I think the only explanation is a deep streak of racism in the community. It’s denied on all sides of course but that’s the only conclusion that makes sense to me.

  25. Re a bet on Pell
    A mere $50A bet.. would guive a return on present odds of $3300 ..should he win…and that would buy two tickets to Rome(and a bit over for a short stay at the Hotel Pell.aka “domus Australia”)
    I’m on !!

  26. Pell and languages
    He would have a great knowledge of Latin…a must for the College of Cardinals…as Vatican documents are still published in Latin(there is an official Latinist on the Pope’s American bishop)
    Pell probably would speak some Italian…not hard for a fluent Latinist…more so if one spends much time in Rome as he has done

  27. Yes I know what you mean AbsoluteTwaddle.

    Still, I suppose I like to think perhaps it’s fear of the unknown rather than straight-out racism, although I accept there is a blurred line there. Of course, it’s far from unknown in reality, as we have any number of outstanding citizens who arrived here this way, but the message just doesn’t seem to get through.

  28. [absolutetwaddle
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:29 am | PERMALINK

    “Yep, because they did it the right way!.”

    You mean flew here?]

    Here is something different…. people who get approval before they hop on the boat or plane.

  29. I can see them all sitting around in the smugglers’ cave.
    “I got in a haul of cigarettes. I put a real bottom in a false case. Worked a treat.”

    “You call that smoogling? I put 10 gallons of 90% proof in the bull-bar of me trook. Care for a drink? What about you, mate.”

    “I had a bit of a problem. You see, I in Gatwick with 94 kilograms of dried caterpillars…”

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