Seat of the week: Bendigo

The federal electorate of Bendigo has been trending to Labor since Steve Gibbons gained it for them in 1998, but it is reportedly back on the Liberals’ radar with his impending retirement.

Created at federation, the electorate of Bendigo currently extends from the city itself south to Castlemaine and the Macedon Ranges around Woodend, also taking in smaller rural centres to the west and north. The redistribution to take effect at the next election has added the Macedon Ranges area from McEwen in the electorate’s south-east, and transferred Maryborough and its surrounds to Wannon in the west. The changes respectively affect about 7000 and 10,000 voters but have only a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which goes from 9.5% to 9.4%.

Bendigo was first won by Labor in 1913, having earlier been in Protectionist and Liberal hands. Billy Hughes contested the seat as the Nationalist Prime Minister in the wake of the Labor split of 1917, having recognised he would be unable to retain his existing safe Labor seat of West Sydney, and succeeded in unseating Labor incumbent Alfred Hampson with a 12.5% swing. Hughes would remain member for five years before moving to North Sydney. Bendigo was in conservative hands thereafter until 1949, except when Richard Keane held it for a term after Labor came to office in 1929. George Rankin gained the seat for the Country Party when United Australia Party incumbent Eric Harrison retired in 1937.

Bendigo emerged with the curious of distinction of being gained by Labor when it lost office in 1949, and next lost by them when they finally returned to power in 1972. The win in 1949 resulted from the redistribution giving effect to the enlargement of parliament, which accommodated the state’s northern rural reaches in the new seat of Murray and transferred Castlemaine and Maryborough to Bendigo. John Bourchier won the seat for the Liberals against the trend of a substantial pro-Labor swing in Victoria in 1972, which was variously put down to the entry of a popular Country Party candidate and attacks on Labor member David Kennedy over state aid and his liberal position on abortion. Bourchier would in turn hold the seat until the Fraser government’s defeat in 1983.

Bendigo was then held for Labor by future Victorian Premier John Brumby, who served for three terms before joining Victorian Labor’s extensive casualty list at the 1990 election. Bruce Reid served for three terms as Liberal member until his retirement in 1998, when Labor’s Steve Gibbons, a former Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union official and electorate officer to Brumby, gained the seat with a swing of 4.4%. Gibbons came within 1.0% of defeat at the 2004 election before enjoying consecutive swings of 5.2% and 3.4% in 2007 and 2010. After announcing in September 2011 he would not seek another term, Gibbons became less disciplined in his public pronouncements, proclaiming on Twitter that Kevin Rudd was a “psychopath”, Tony Abbott a “douchebag”, Julie Bishop a “narcissistic bimbo”, and Australia Day an “Invasion Day” celebrated by “throwing bits of dead animals on a cooking fire just like the people we dispossessed”.

Labor’s new candidate is Lisa Chesters, a Kyneton-based official with the same Socialist Left union that once employed Gibbons, which has lately been rebadged as United Voice. Earlier speculation that the seat might be used to accommodate electorally endangered Senator David Feeney or even a return to federal politics for John Brumby was quickly scotched. Greg Westbrook, director of legal firm Petersen Westbrook Cameron, was an early nominee, but in the event Chesters was preselected without opposition. The Liberal candidate is Greg Bickley, owner of a local transport business. Other reported nominees for Liberal preselection were Jack Lyons, owner of construction business Lyons Constructions, and Peter Wiseman, a teacher and owner of a website design business.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,296 comments on “Seat of the week: Bendigo”

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  1. Fran Barlow@1096


    Player One:

    Shorter Fran: It doesn’t result in a Green government


    Accurately: It doesn’t achieve what, in something like an optimal world, what it ought to achieve — a government that closely reflects the public policy wishes and needs of those it serves.

    Even shorter Fran: I didn’t get what I wanted! Waaah!

  2. Fran B

    Well, glad that you didn’t overstep the mark there with the ballot paper.

    But that’s not the impression you gave when recounting same about teaching your students.

    At least to me, and at least that’s clarified now.

    No need to worry about the Education Ministry knocking on your door.

  3. kezza2@1098


    That is it normal for a deputy to have a statement ready in case of the demise of the captain?

    Only possible if the circumstances are known in advance.
    And that tells us something.

  4. Spoke to a mate for first time in about a year today. He is in IT systems for a major engineering firm. Traditionally a Lib, voted Howard in 01-07, then Abbott in 2010.

    He reckons after 3 1/2 years in the job Abbott is the biggest political buffoon in years and will be voting Labor for two reasons – NBN and NDIS.

  5. Just Me

    PA = Journalism’s cane toad. Oh and what a surprise that he is “A close friend of Tony Abbott”. Rumour has it you can judge someone by the company they keep.

  6. bemused
    [That is it normal for a deputy to have a statement ready in case of the demise of the captain?]
    Only possible if the circumstances are known in advance.
    And that tells us something.

    The media had been asking for weeks. JG was already Deputy. Even when the crunch came, she wanted to give KR another 3 months grace.

    I really dislike your sarcastic bias (not that you’re the only one).

  7. poroti

    [Was your non renewal anything to do with Kimbo’s rolling over in the face of Howies BOATS ?]
    No.
    Disillusioned though I was, it was the lack of funds, primarily.

    Doesn’t mean I didn’t help out.

  8. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    there’s some cringingly dinky stuff in the PM’s speech today, but she did actually present a sophisticated, coherent economic strategy.]

  9. Kevin is doing nothing to fight for Labor.

    Even his belated withdrawal is a publicity grabber.

    I am disgusted by his egocentric approach.

    He doesn’t care, he doesn’t give a shit about Labor’s fortunes.

    He is Tiny Abbott’s greatest supporter.

  10. One thing that will change the polls back into Labors favor is when the punters find out the roll back of the tax threshold and school kids benefits actually affect them. Currently it has gained no publicity in the MSM. It all very well talking baseball bats when they are free but if they cost you!! Different story.

  11. lizzie@1111


    bemused

    That is it normal for a deputy to have a statement ready in case of the demise of the captain?


    Only possible if the circumstances are known in advance.
    And that tells us something.

    The media had been asking for weeks. JG was already Deputy. Even when the crunch came, she wanted to give KR another 3 months grace.

    I really dislike your sarcastic bias (not that you’re the only one).

    Nothing sarcastic in that.
    She tried to hide it and it was dragged out of her on 4C.

  12. kezza2 @ 1098

    I am willing to accept your point is arguable.

    I’m left with my own suspicions over the whole leadership issue.

    However, all the main ‘players’ will no doubt have their own versions of the events when the inevitable books are published post the election.

  13. Lizzie

    [That is it normal for a deputy to have a statement ready in case of the demise of the captain?
    ]

    That’s not quite true. The speech was only drafted two weeks before Rudd was dispatched. They didn’t have one for three years with Captain Rudd at the helm.

  14. Player One:

    1. Do you think that ‘democracy’ is about as close as we can get to optimal governance?

    If yes,

    2. What do you see democracy in government as entailing, in terms of the relationship between the legislature/executive on the one hand, and the public on the other?

    2a. Do you see ‘consent’ as a key concept in democracy?

    if yes …

    2b. How does one secure bona fide consent for public policy?

    2 c.)How can one be sure that the consent is
    i.) well-informed
    ii.) sufficiently ubiquitous to be meaningful

    3. What role should government play in engaging the mass of its citizens in the kind of learning that will make ‘consent’ as outlined in #2 above possible?
    a) What role should the voting procedure play in that process?

    FTR, the kinds of reform I’d like to see would probably make a specifically Greens or ALP or Liberal government impossible in practice.

  15. Diogenes@1124


    Lizzie

    That is it normal for a deputy to have a statement ready in case of the demise of the captain?


    That’s not quite true. The speech was only drafted two weeks before Rudd was dispatched. They didn’t have one for three years with Captain Rudd at the helm.

    All just a coincidence. 😉

  16. [Mr Rudd did well today fighting for Labor.]

    I’m very pleased to hear it. Unfortunately one cannot say the same about his spear-throwers.

    I was at a function today with a Rudd loyalist: one Tony Zappia.

    His speech started with an urgent entreaty to all attendees to believe that he and Rudd weren’t trying to upstage the PM with the Inter-faith gathering on the same day as the Community Cabinet and that, thanks to the nasty media, it has now had to be rescheduled to early March.

    He then proceeded to talk a little more about Kevin Rudd, followed by an end-piece about how great Kevin Rudd is.

    It may only have been a short, 10 minute speech, but he very cleverly managed to avoid mentioning Labor, the current Prime Minister or the local member of parliament for whom this function was a fundraiser.

    Our table, full of long-standing Labor stalwarts, was spectacularly unimpressed and it’s just as well he didn’t take any questions, because we had a few choice ones planned for him involving his loyalty to the Labor Party and its current Prime Minister.

  17. guytaur

    I love the tweets you copy and paste.
    I love the way you stick up for your beliefs.

    But I won’t cop a reprimand from you about a “history war” with bemused when I’ve been talking/addressing solely with Fran B and Feeney. (And William and poroti).

    And, I agree, Rudd did well in this clip:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7Kdgfp7ZTU&feature=youtu.be&t=27s

    If you want to know about the preparedness of the sudden demise of public personalities, then look no further than those who prepare the obituary columns. I’m sure you’d find a helluva lot of pre-written accolades to Julia Gillard, for instance.

    And, if JFK’s demise didn’t tell Australians anything, then Harold Holt’s did.

    I’m sure you’ll find since then that leaders of Australian parties have been prepared for the untimely demise of a leader.

    FFS, that means Australian leaders have been prepared for the past 40-odd years.

    To cry that Rudd’s demise was unprecedented is to indulge in your own revision of history.

  18. Will someone factcheck this lie from Ms Mirrabella.

    [“The centrepiece of Labor’s statement today is industry precincts but this is a re-announcement of a 2011 promise to deliver the Industrial Research Transformation Hubs. This program has been repeatedly delayed, but has now been given a coat of paint and changed name to give the look of something new. Labor won’t deliver on these precincts because it hasnt delivered on the same plans for the past three years,” Ms Mirabella said.]

    For a start the IRTH were announced in 2012 and applications for funding have closed, but it is a university based scheme. Is Sophie proposing uni’s move as well now?

  19. Danny L:

    I can imagine that people who voluntarily give of their time and money to help Labor being mightily pissed off with Rudd and his spear carriers continually undermining their efforts.

    After all this is over and if Rudd gets his way and helps crush a Labor govt, how on earth does he think he will be held up by the party as a former Labor PM? He’ll go down in history as a Labor rat.

  20. RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD RUDD FMD!

  21. I have been sustained during this evening’s little wars by a plate of roast pork & vegs with superb crackling. And for the doubters, free range organic pork tastes five times as sweet as the other stuff.

  22. Anthony Albanese ‏@AlboMP

    Kempsey Bypass will open to traffic in March, one year ahead OS schedule – fully Federally funded through Eco stimulus over $600m
    Expand

    27 secs Mark Travers Mark Travers ‏@mark_travers

    @AlboMP Nightmare! I’ll really miss sitting in 20 km of traffic with a car full of kids

  23. [The audience of the party faithful was treated to a warm-up act by local member and deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop act, who used the Chinese New Year to laud the Liberal leaders, while poking fun at state Labor leader Mark McGowan about his birthdate in the Chinese year of the goat.]

    This only makes me recall Peter Costello pathetically addressing the Liberal campaign in 2007 going on about reds under the bed. Arrogance supreme.

  24. lizzie@1138


    I have been sustained during this evening’s little wars by a plate of roast pork & vegs with superb crackling. And for the doubters, free range organic pork tastes five times as sweet as the other stuff.

    Where can I get inorganic pork?

  25. confessions

    [After all this is over and if Rudd gets his way and helps crush a Labor govt, how on earth does he think he will be held up by the party as a former Labor PM? He’ll go down in history as a Labor rat.]

    Please!!!! “a Labor rat” Lovely!

    How on earth would you know?

    Are you a member to the ALP?

  26. “@YaThinkN: How nice for a change! Backpacker being paid by tabloid for story & donating to Emergency Services that found him out west!”

  27. Fran Barlow@1126


    Player One:

    1. Do you think that ‘democracy’ is about as close as we can get to optimal governance?

    <… snip …>

    FTR, the kinds of reform I’d like to see would probably make a specifically Greens or ALP or Liberal government impossible in practice.

    You can talk as much as you like – but since you have disenfranchised yourself, no-one has to actually listen, or answer – especially on a psephological blog.

    However, I would say that I believe it used to be an offence to encourage people to vote informally, so if that is what you have been doing in your classes (you have certainly been doing that here on PB) then I hope the offence still exists (it may have been repealed, I am not sure) and that both the AEC and the education department have something to say top you.

  28. guytaur

    [“@YaThinkN: How nice for a change! Backpacker being paid by tabloid for story & donating to Emergency Services that found him out west!”]

    What a lovely thing to do.

  29. GG:

    That too. Barnett must’ve been recoiling in horror after he’s repeatedly tried to get away from his nickname the Emperor.

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