Created at federation, the electorate of Bendigo currently extends from the city itself south to Castlemaine and the Macedon Ranges around Woodend, also taking in smaller rural centres to the west and north. The redistribution to take effect at the next election has added the Macedon Ranges area from McEwen in the electorate’s south-east, and transferred Maryborough and its surrounds to Wannon in the west. The changes respectively affect about 7000 and 10,000 voters but have only a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which goes from 9.5% to 9.4%.
Bendigo was first won by Labor in 1913, having earlier been in Protectionist and Liberal hands. Billy Hughes contested the seat as the Nationalist Prime Minister in the wake of the Labor split of 1917, having recognised he would be unable to retain his existing safe Labor seat of West Sydney, and succeeded in unseating Labor incumbent Alfred Hampson with a 12.5% swing. Hughes would remain member for five years before moving to North Sydney. Bendigo was in conservative hands thereafter until 1949, except when Richard Keane held it for a term after Labor came to office in 1929. George Rankin gained the seat for the Country Party when United Australia Party incumbent Eric Harrison retired in 1937.
Bendigo emerged with the curious of distinction of being gained by Labor when it lost office in 1949, and next lost by them when they finally returned to power in 1972. The win in 1949 resulted from the redistribution giving effect to the enlargement of parliament, which accommodated the state’s northern rural reaches in the new seat of Murray and transferred Castlemaine and Maryborough to Bendigo. John Bourchier won the seat for the Liberals against the trend of a substantial pro-Labor swing in Victoria in 1972, which was variously put down to the entry of a popular Country Party candidate and attacks on Labor member David Kennedy over state aid and his liberal position on abortion. Bourchier would in turn hold the seat until the Fraser government’s defeat in 1983.
Bendigo was then held for Labor by future Victorian Premier John Brumby, who served for three terms before joining Victorian Labor’s extensive casualty list at the 1990 election. Bruce Reid served for three terms as Liberal member until his retirement in 1998, when Labor’s Steve Gibbons, a former Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union official and electorate officer to Brumby, gained the seat with a swing of 4.4%. Gibbons came within 1.0% of defeat at the 2004 election before enjoying consecutive swings of 5.2% and 3.4% in 2007 and 2010. After announcing in September 2011 he would not seek another term, Gibbons became less disciplined in his public pronouncements, proclaiming on Twitter that Kevin Rudd was a “psychopath”, Tony Abbott a “douchebag”, Julie Bishop a “narcissistic bimbo”, and Australia Day an “Invasion Day” celebrated by “throwing bits of dead animals on a cooking fire just like the people we dispossessed”.
Labor’s new candidate is Lisa Chesters, a Kyneton-based official with the same Socialist Left union that once employed Gibbons, which has lately been rebadged as United Voice. Earlier speculation that the seat might be used to accommodate electorally endangered Senator David Feeney or even a return to federal politics for John Brumby was quickly scotched. Greg Westbrook, director of legal firm Petersen Westbrook Cameron, was an early nominee, but in the event Chesters was preselected without opposition. The Liberal candidate is Greg Bickley, owner of a local transport business. Other reported nominees for Liberal preselection were Jack Lyons, owner of construction business Lyons Constructions, and Peter Wiseman, a teacher and owner of a website design business.
Nine News Sydney @9NewsSyd
RT @peterstefanovic: BREAKING: A bloodied cricket bat is a central piece of evidence in murder investigation against Pistorius. More to come
The problem for Rudd – partly of his own making or because the Labor party – and I stress Labor party – decided that a man who had a poll lead of 52-48 was making too many mistakes, was becoming accident prone, and was, according to those who worked closely with him, not an easy man to work for or with, had to go.
The comings and goings before the event were pure politics and the process messy and unedifying for both the victim and the axe-handlers. They must have felt a bit like those who signed the death warrant for Charles 1. Kind of wanting it done but not really having the stomach for it.
Now Labor has, as a result of this act, something like the ghost of Anne Boleyn (in Rudd) who reputedly walks around the Tower of London with her head “tucked underneath her arm” walking the bloody tower.
One only had to look at the despondent and totally gutted face of Rudd after the event. He should have, in retrospect, allowed a challenge to take place. He might then just have got it. He didn’t and that is now history.
The point is – he feels a injustice has been done him. And, let’s face it to politically destroy a leader not through his first term in such a manner is only something the Labor party could contemplate and actually do.
No matter which way it is spun, the PM will always, like Lady McBeth, have blood on her hands. She was no innocent in all of this, and come the day she may go, we all should remember politics is a dirty business.
The popularity of Rudd with the general public is open to question but there are many who felt they were cheated.
In the presidential style of politics which Oz has now adopted, many of the electorate believe they pick and chose the PM (regardless that the party actually makes the choice) and having “elected Rudd” felt they had the right to unelect him as it were.
If Rudd had gone on to lead his first election and lost, the electorate would have felt “justice is done”. Actually, I would have been surprised if he had lost.
On top of this, the electorate still feel a sense that they have been robbed of making their decision about him. It could be, if he came back, he would lose, but the electorate would feel that it was they, not the party, which had the ultimate say.
The pity of it all is that there are really no burning issues in the economy which normally cost government and by and large the PM has done a great job holding it all together.
However, I still think there is an appetite for Rudd to take over and have the contest with Abbott – in his own mind, in the mind of the commentariat and some of the electorate.
In turn, as others have pointed out, Abbott is not a real choice for the electorate either. In over 2 years he has proved to be a highly unpopular leader.
You would think that the PV for the conservatives on or just above where it was in 2010 might give them something to worry about – despite all the current attempts to sugar coat Abbott.
My hope is that the challenge comes soon.
The strategy Rudd is adopting is to, of course, say he is not “seeking the leadership” or wtte. The goal is to build up so much momentum against the PM – in any which way, that he will be approached to “save” Labor thus ensuring there is no blood on his hands either.
And as a final point, because as sure as eggs are eggs someone will say it, it might be “boring” or “stoking the fires” or whatever to continue with this topic, but Rudd has ensured it is now front and centre of the politics in the next little while. Just cannot be ignored.
At the end of the day Rudd should either get on board (says he will), shut up, (says he will but will his spear carriers?) or challenge – says he won’t – and I believe him. But I do think he still wants to be PM again – but like Churchill, wants to come in from the cold when his party calls.
[Labor has got the ammo to destroy abbott quickly]
Then they had better fire it soon. They will also nee to aim a bit straighter.
I have been pessimistic about Labor’s chances recently on this blog, and still am. I still think the Self inflicted wounds of Thompson and Obeid will cost Labor NSW, and with it the election.
I have also been skeptical about the claims in defence of Thompson. However, if I am wrong, there is still a chance for he and Labor. He still has to have a committal hearing in May. If the evidence is really as absent as he and his defenders claim, that is the perfect opportunity to test it. If the charges are thrown out for lack of evidence, then Thompson will be exonerated and he and Labor would look like the victims of a vendetta. If not the ugly mess will drag on to Election Day, and sink the Gillard government. I think the evidence against Obeid is already overwhelming?
Space Kidette
[@TonyAbbottMHR Why are West Australians any better than Queenslanders? #pleaseexplain]
As Tones will tell you. They just are 😉 .Also sandgroper pendants get upset about the “west” rather than “western” . Secession now ! 🙂
Socrates:
Do you have a link that shows the funding to the states under the Howard years?
Poroti,
It even seems to be in a normal key signature. Amazing.
a bloodied cricket bat could do the trick for JG
Remember on that fateful night their were only three members in that meeting Rudd Gillard and Faulkner with Albo in there for some of the time
I would trust Faulkner and Albo with my life and look who they voted for when Rudd challenged. That should tell us something.
MTBW,
Hmm, there were only four people in the meeting on that fateful night as you say yet Gillard who was outnumbered 3 to 1 by Rudd, Faulkner and Albanese, the latter two who you would trust with your life, emerged the victor. I would have thought that the 71-31 scoreline of the Rudd challenge would have told you something more.
briefly@979
Bullshit and you know it.
Socrates
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 4:34 pm | Permalink
L
I have been pessimistic about Labor’s chances recently on this blog, and still am. I still think the Self inflicted wounds of Thompson and Obeid will cost Labor NSW, and with it the election.
——————————————
Coalition is in more trouble wiht obeid links and slipper/ashby
Imagine Sophie Mirabella up against Greg Combet (oh can I rephrase that) on Q&A in the lead up to the election as Tony Jones promised (he should be held to his comment that he would host a number of Minister/Shadow showdowns.
These ‘contests’ if they happen will be hugely influential in the election outcome.
Confessions
No, and I doubt any government would highlight it. But those of us in the industry knew. Any competent economist could compare the transport funding by state on a per capita basis during the Howard years. WA got screwed by Howard. Check especially ,maintenance funding for the national highway in the Howard years. Several people in my field said that WA actually had to use their own funds to top it up, it was so low. Andrew Leigh would only have to go through the Dotars budgets in the Howard years and he would soon spot it. I am conflicted from commenting further.
socrates
Arthur Sindonis and o’farrell government will counter any problems for labor
slipper is a big problem for abbott and co
Tricot
[At the end of the day Rudd should either get on board (says he will), shut up, (says he will but will his spear carriers?) or challenge – says he won’t – and I believe him. But I do think he still wants to be PM again – but like Churchill, wants to come in from the cold when his party calls.]
Spot on!
Fran, really, I think walking off with a ballot paper is at worst mildly eccentric. Statements that challenge our understandings are few enough and should be tax-free. They’re wholly understandable, even if they’re the kind of nutty thing my mother does. She refuses to vote at all. She always has done, and on precisely the same conscientious grounds that you cite. She will not be forced to exercise her franchise. It is delightfully irrational, like refusing to accept ones wages or shop at a supermarket because you object to capitalism.
She claims protection for all manner of other special beliefs – iridology, faith healing, the power of prayer, the healing properties of fasting, the potency of black magic and the wickedness of the devil, who, by her lights, has gained possession of the Labor Party and all who sail with her. She has never yet been proven wrong and I’ve given up trying to illuminate her.
bemused
[
He is that reviled creature – a rat.
Bullshit and you know it.]
A Capybara ?
Thanks Socrates.
In the past Albo has commented about the decline of national roads under the coalition govt..
Perhaps someone can tweet Andrew Leigh and ask him to look at this?
MTBW@1000
Thanks for that. I have indulged myself a few posts later and a I agree with a lot of what you say.
You will see I have actually made many the same points as yourself.
I am not of the school of thought of of some here, and I understand their point, that by “obsessing about Rudd” as one put it a few posts ago, that the issue will just go away.
Rudd has put himself front and centre – with the aid of the conservative media – to dominate politics.
Up until a few months ago, I wrote off the stories about Rudd leaking party stuff to the journos for his own benefit. I now, because some of the journos who have said so I believe to be straight, think he has been white-anting.
The mystery to me is if he has a go at the leadership how he will expect loyalty from a group he appears to have exposed.
Politics is a dirty business!
Can anybody ever imagine Credlin allowing shodow misnisters to go head to head with ministers on QandA policy discussions?
Whuch shadow couuld hold his or her own?
[A Capybara]
poroti, I think Hockey belongs to this totem…
McGuire bob
[Coalition is in more trouble wiht obeid links and slipper/ashby]
If only that we’re true. Unless there is evidence to put Ashby and/or Brough on trial over the Slipper case I don’t see how they are remotely comparable to Obeid and Thompson. In the court of public opinion the latter two look like crimes about to go before the court, the former look like some unethical behaviour by a staffer, a journo and a wannabe politician. Brough is not even in parliament. Thompson and Obeid both were. To clean up its image problem Labor needs to see Thompson cleared and have no clear links to Obeid.
Oh Psephos as you’re here – did you get round to reading this about your mate Kathy Jackson?
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/jacksonville-42-craig-thomson-in-the-land-of-shock-jock/
[The mystery to me is if he has a go at the leadership how he will expect loyalty from a group he appears to have exposed.]
The mystery to me is why he seems hell-bent on trashing his legacy as PM, as he certainly will do if he refuses to unite behind the leadership. Instead of being remember for what he achieved, he will be remembered for his whiteanting and destabilising.
BK
Albert Finney is my favourite actor.
Gillard announces $1b jobs plan.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/gillard-unveils-1-billion-jobs-003624747.html
[I owe you so much, Aunty Ambidextra Balancedia Clarificia (ABC). I love you and I want to say ‘Thank You’.
But where the Hell ARE you?
You taught me to trust you. I knew I could turn to you. I knew you’d deliver the news of the day in an unbiased, dignified, professional fashion no matter which political party held the upper hand. You quenched my thirst for information with savvy discussions, widely drawing on the knowledge of men AND women who were experts in their field.
You were fair. You acted on principle. We could trust you. You gave us FACTS.
And now I seem to have lost you. Why?
Why have you abandoned your principles, Aunty?]
http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/02/17/looking-for-my-aunty/
shellbell
Dis you see Finney’s portrayal of Winston Churchill in “The Gathering Storm” series?
Socrates
Posted Sunday, February 17, 2013 at 4:51 pm | Permalink
If only that we’re true. Unless there is evidence to put Ashby and/or Brough on trial over the Slipper case
————————————————
There is
Ashby false claims of slipper committing an crime ( 2012 cabcharges)
Brough and lnp and ashby in an attempt to get an elected member of parliament , by deliberately conspiring
Its up to the police to do their job
i agree with you in a way , will the police lay charges
i dont know
Just saw the Prime Ministers announcement of industry hubs.
Amongst the announcements was the need for large companies to look for local contractors first, which I think is aimed at the miners, if so, then the announcement that the MRRT collected very little tax might have been leaked to ensure public acceptance for today’s announcement.
Mirabella was passionate and mentioned that the industry partnerships with academia are being scaled back. GOOD, will stop the disgraceful climate change deniers being funded by coal companies
Scarpat
[ I would have thought that the 71-31 scoreline of the Rudd challenge would have told you something more.]
Yes it does – Factional allegiances!
Rudd, like Richard II, lost his crown because of his misjudgments and because he betrayed those closest to him – those on whom he depended for power, and who were his only possible rivals. Bolingbroke, too able and too strongly armed for Richard, knew too well what would ensue from the felling of the King. And yet nothing could save Richard. He bid his own end, in spite of all misgivings. So it was with Rudd. The difference is that Richard knew all was lost and Bolingbroke made sure of it, while Rudd pretends, deposed but not dispelled.
Rudd can no more regain his crown than poor Richard, so he will make no end of trouble instead.
Adieu all. I really wish people would stop the Rudd debate. I was against the coup but IMO it is far too late to go back. It would just make Federal Labor look even more like NSW State Labor, and take oxygen that should be used to light a fire under Abbott’s lack of policy funding detail.
Socrates
[Adieu all. I really wish people would stop the Rudd debate. I was against the coup but IMO it is far too late to go back. It would just make Federal Labor look even more like NSW State Labor, and take oxygen that should be used to light a fire under Abbott’s lack of policy funding detail]
Just so you all read it again!
Well briefly, your mother does indeed sound like a bona fide eccentric. It’s bound to be amusing.
In any event, having done it once I feel no further need to keep it up. I just wanted to be able to say in good conscience that it was possible. I can count that as done and move on.
Question for you William (or anyone else who might know):
Was yesterday’s by-election, the first time there was a swing to the ALP since the 2007 federal election? That is, federal, state or territory, general or by-election.
BK
No. On my list. His performances in the Dresser and Cold Lazarus are my standouts.
One final comment, when I say I wish people would drop the Rudd debate, that includes those criticising Rudd to justify the coup. That gives Labor a bad look, and is just as damaging. At this point it is only distracting people from what Labor needs to make the main topic of discussion: Tony Abbott. Bye.
The question remains though, briefly: how do we reconcile the need to achieve effective and efficient governance with the need for it to be a bona fide expression of the well-informed and reasoned public goods aspirations of the communities that it is supposed, in theory, to serve?
[1035
Fran Barlow
Well briefly, your mother does indeed sound like a bona fide eccentric. It’s bound to be amusing.
In any event, having done it once I feel no further need to keep it up. I just wanted to be able to say in good conscience that it was possible. I can count that as done and move on.]
Life is a work of protest round here, Fran….my labouring bones and my failing eyes are agreed on that 🙂
FRan @ 1039, I profess to know very little. But I really enjoy fighting Liberals…like Albo. 🙂
Now I must go and see my dear mother. She has fruit for me. Later, we will have fish in parsley sauce together.
I will think more about your question …!!
Socrates@1038
Hear, Hear! Let’s get back to the only subject that everyone here on PB (Labor, LNP or Green) seems to agree on – i.e. that Tony Abbott is unfit to run a tupperware party, let alone a political party.
[Bernard Keane @BernardKeane
Think I heard a Ten News anchor just declaring the manufacturing policy had been “overshadowed by Nick Xenophon”.]
FFS!
Fran Barlow@1039
Compulsory preferential voting sounds like a good start.
zoomster @ 971
Perhaps you might like to share who your “sources” are.
It would certainly give your comments more credibility.
confessions
Y the surprise? If they did not have Sen X they would be using meteorites in Russia, a murder in South Africa or anything else they can find as excuse not to run positive for Labor
Socrates
‘One final comment, when I say I wish people would drop the Rudd debate, that includes those criticising Rudd to justify the coup. That gives Labor a bad look, and is just as damaging. At this point it is only distracting people from what Labor needs to make the main topic of discussion: Tony Abbott. Bye.’
Another reasonable person trying to be reasonable in the presence of sociopathy.
It does not work.
So, with respect to Fran’s ballot, have Bludgerites ever written so much about so little?
Psephos @ 956
Gillard did not deny any knowledge of the letter.
Why on earth would someone associated with her prepare such a letter, if there was no ‘plot’?
As to the second matter, I understand where you are coming from and why you would prefer to keep your counsel.
As to Jackson, the HSU etc, we can all draw our own conclusions.
Boerwar@1048
Discussion of LNP policies?
sprocket & victoria
The latest AAP report on Abbott & Nestor is the fourth(?) one. Remember Chris Murphy said Paul Osborne had been looking into this for 3 months. I don’t think Paul is about to let it go. Still so far however its only AAP reports, no follow up in-house articles from anyone else, and I doubt these have appeared in any hard copy newspapers. It could be a sleeper issue though.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-insisted-on-nestor-reference-20130217-2eksx.html
[Abbott insisted on Nestor reference
February 17, 2013 – 1:26PM
Rashida Yosufzai and Paul Osborne, AAP Senior Political Writer
Tony Abbott insisted on providing a character reference for a Catholic priest later struck off the clergy list by the Vatican following a child abuse case, the former priest says.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-linked-to-priest-in-web-of-intrigue/story-e6frg6n6-1226573435456
Feb 8 – longer background article
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/lawyer-seeks-nestor-case-inquiry-20130208-2e2zn.html
Feb 8
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-vouched-for-priest-later-struck-off-20130206-2dxoh.html
Feb 6