Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings show a substantial weakening in Julia Gillard’s position, while the two-party preferred result ticks over a point in the Coalition’s favour.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.

UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,171 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Being a shift person I don’t see 7 30 but my mother tells me Uhlmann is just plain rude to people. A black mark from her tells me all I need to know.

  2. [Darren

    But PB had it worked out within a day. Sheez!]

    Yes, ABC Online staffers are not known for their intellectual or technical prowess.

    I was just surprised the Oz hadn’t given them the tip sheet on how to get around the firewall given this long-standing “ABC News Ltd” partnership!

  3. Being married to a politician should not be a hanging offence for an ABC journalist.

    Not even standing for a right wing christian fundamentalist party, and (like Abbott) being a failed seminarian.

    What should be however, is openly collaborating and entering into commercial relations with NewsLtd Consigliere like Steve Lewis. Marmalade Files should have had Uhlmann sacked.

  4. CTar1

    I am thinking that we go elite, marketing-wise.

    The Chevaliers Club.

    Vision statement: we don’t ride them we eat them.

    Exactly the same meat, of course, but we charge triple for the cachet.

  5. [quite a few in the media, Alan Jones and Tim Wilson come to mind…]

    Exactly, and Senator Brandis and Mr Pyne.

    While most GLBT Australians don’t vote Liberal, there are still a few who do.

    Some Turkeys do vote for Christmas, as they say.

  6. Briefly
    Your point about newspaper freebies is well made. One analysis i saw suggested that up to 25 percent of The Oz figure might be giveaways.

  7. “@BernardKeane: So if DFAT is “helping” Xenophon he’ll either be found dead in his cell or will have to seek asylum with a South American country.”

  8. “@ABCNews24: More next hour on @ABCNews24 MT @simonpalan: @bobjcarr has released statement saying officials seeking immediate release of Nick Xenophon”

  9. Being married to a politician should not be a hanging offence for an ABC journalist.

    My point is that of the problem of perception both from the public’s point of view and of how the journalist perceives herself/himself.

    In Uhlmann’s case is he seen (on PB at least) as favouring the Opposition because of his past or because his partner belongs to a particular political party and therefore feels he has to, subconsciously or otherwise, lean towards the other side?

  10. BW

    [The Chevaliers Club.]

    Does that mean we have to be head quartered in Moss Vale and take ‘ethical’ guidance for the you know who mob.

    With their help we could be tax free!

  11. I see that the Russians are now going to ever-more absurd lengths to ‘prove’ that there was a meteor shower.

    They even had fake doctors putting fake iodine on fake cuts, complete with vision of people whose ‘injuries’ were completely covered by clean white bandages. Then they used some file footage of windows broken during some racist, xenophobic football riots to prove that there were broken windows. Lots of them.

    Now, here is the thing. A BBC report stated that the force of the explosion was the equivalent of ‘…a nuclear bomb going off’.

    Did the North Koreans really stuff it up this time?

    Is this a conspiracy to distract from their parlous position in Syria as well as to paper over the ever-growing tensions between Medvedev and Putin?

    Putin has some questions to answer.

  12. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane

    I imagine the initial DFAT brief to Bob Carr will be “Nick Xenophon? Never heard of him. How do you spell that?”

  13. CTar1

    Hmmm… the Moss Vale connection… romantic but wRONg?

    As for ‘tax’ – that is for mug punter PAYE and GST type chaps.

    I think we follow the example of the biggest mining companies in the world: a few trusts, a bit of off-shoring of the profit stream, multiple company structures set up in the Channel Islands, the Bahamas, Norfolk Island (nice little tax regime there, BTW), a few strategic write downs and she’ll be right. To add sweeteners to our noble enterprise, I believe that we should get an innovations subsidy, an exporters subsidy, a subsidy for employing people in an manufacturing industry, a diesel subsidy, some primary producer averaging arrangements and accelerated depreciation on our holdings of geldings.

    By the time we have finished with them, they will owe US money.

  14. Every day I go into teach, there is a pile of newspapers – ‘The Age’ and ‘Herald Sun’ – on the staffroom desk, at least twenty of each.

    Every day, more than half of these are binned at the end of day.

    What happens is that both papers offer teachers cheap subscriptions (not sure what the cost is, but it’s chickenfeed), so cheap that you may as well sign up, even if you end up only taking home one copy a week.

    Times that by the hundreds of schools in the state, and you’re looking at seriously inflated circulation figures!

  15. BW – It’s funny that you mention Putin.

    I was thinking earlier that real estate on the north coast of the Black Sea would be as valuable as the Italian Riviera except for Putin and the rest of the Russian Mafia.

    It’s very similar and every bit as scenic.

    Why I had the thought? No idea!

  16. [6046
    Posted Saturday, February 16, 2013 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    She is probably one of the 10-20% of GLBT Australians who support the conservative side of politics.]

    My understanding is she is considered by Labor Ministers to be “OK”. In other words, she is thought to be just doing her job, not running a campaign for anyone.

    fwiw, I think everyone in the media and politics is struggling to handle the 24-hour news cycle. Because political news has such an incredibly short life in relation to its production cost, there is almost no point in trying to capture the fine details of events.

    Every single “media-cast” (transmission of content) is encoded so that political “messages” can be packed into just a few audio-visual seconds. Written pieces last a few paragraphs only for the most part. The shorter political messages/stories are the better, as if their recipients really do not want to much intrusion.

    I think it is interesting to compare political and sports journalism. It seems to me that far more serious broadcasting and publishing resources go into sport, and that sport probably pays its way. People spend real money on sports. Politics, on the other hand, is almost like clutter. It has become junk-food or soda.

  17. The latest circulation figures for ‘The Australian’ had the dead tree circulation falling but the digital circulation increasing with a net increase in total circulation.

    The total, from memory, came to around 160-170,000 on weekdays. Let’s say readership of 165,000. Considering a reported loss of $25 million a year, that is a ‘loss’ of around $151 per reader per year. I assume that the trade off in terms of profits accruing from the power would have to be much greater than that, though.

    On the whole, for most newspapers, there was not a lot of increases even when paper and digital were taken together.

  18. CTaR1

    We need cut outs.

    I am thinking that we should inflitrate the Greens. The Greens can have the advice and the surveillance, and we can take the moolah. We could expedite by feeding Greens’ paranoia. Because this practically takes care of itself, we could do this cheap.

  19. from what I can gather, ACT young turk and Liberal Opposition leader Zed Seselja has done a virtual branch stack by disenfranchising preselectors.

    With this rort in place, he has attempted to “bone” Senator Humphries for the plum ACT Senator job.

    But it turns out that our Gary is the Captains Pick.

    [Tony Abbott has hit out at ”ambushes” in preselection contests as he strengthened his support for ACT Liberal Gary Humphries.
    The federal Opposition Leader also called for all eligible Liberal Party members to have a say in the looming preselection battle between Senator Humphries and Zed Seselja.
    His strong intervention came on Wednesday evening at a party function organised by Senator Humphries’ supporters.
    A petition was circulated at the function calling for the preselection process to be overturned on the basis that many of Senator Humphries’ supporters have been disenfranchised.]

    Read more:

  20. Fran Barlow@5726

    While it’s commonly the case that those who appear to indulge the usages one sees in POMO are culturally permissive and closer to what most see as ‘left-of-centre’ POMO has never been conceived as helping advance the cause of workers.

    Yeah I know that; my point being that unsound pomo attacks on science – of exactly the sort Sokal sought to expose as clueless – play greatly into the hands of conservative irrationalists and fundies who are also keen to have science taken down a notch and their own babble treated as equally valid, but have no intention of being culturally permissive.

  21. Incidentally, there was a rather good insider-type article by Angela Shanahan in today’s ‘The Australian’ on the pope and the internal affairs of the Vatican.

    You do need to remember that Shanahan is strictly an old-school traditional dogmatical Catholic: none of your pandering to gays and to those indulging in do-it-yourself sexual morality on everyting from masturbation and birth control.

    That apart, very interesting. She uses the word ‘chaos’ in the context of Vatican governance several times.

  22. Boerwar

    Call me a cynic but if a man from News says anything my bullshit detector goes off the scale. They can claim as many digital subscribers as they like but until they show me the evidence I would not believe them. This is a company where being economical with the truth is part of the culture.

  23. [Does it say whether Newman is running a protection racket or is he just running the racket?]

    BW, it looks like we have to revive Finns & Boerwar Fukushima Nepotism Inc to take the abundance of opportunities in Cando QLD

  24. rossmcg @ 6033 asked about RN listeners and Oz reader numbers and I am surprised to report that the Oz circulation of 120,000 across Australia is much the same as Fran Kelly’s listeners in just the Sydney area (118,000).

    In the last radio survey of 2012, ABC Radio National had a cumulative audience of 118,000 and an average audience of 35,000 in the 5:30am to 9am slot in the Sydney area only.

    If you imagine a football ground with a huge radio playing Fran Kelly’s program, there are 35,000 people in the stands at any one time but a total of 118,000 people wander in and out of the ground between 5:30am amd 9am.

    For comparison,
    ABC702 (Adam Spencer and AM)
    Cumulative 479,000
    Average 130,000

    RN Fran Kelly
    Cumulative 118,000
    Average 35,000

    Cumulative 161,000
    Average 25,000

    2GB Alan Jones (“top rating”)
    Cumulative 456,000
    Average 172,000

    Notice more people listen to the ABC stations (plural) than Alan Jones in both average and cumulative totals.
    Also more people listen to Newsradio that Fran Kelly.

  25. Boerwar@6073

    The latest circulation figures for ‘The Australian’ had the dead tree circulation falling …….

    The total, from memory, came to around 160-170,000 on weekdays. Let’s say readership of 165,000. Considering a reported loss of $25 million a year, that is a ‘loss’ of around $151 per reader per year………

    Possibly the figures you quote are out of date, viz –

    – The Australian operations had all the debt on their balance sheets ‘taken over’ courtesy of Newscorps long suffering shareholders. Added to the lastest round of sacking and cost cutting, the ‘idea’ is that the operations in Australia ‘should’ now make profits.

    We shall see. I suspect in any case that one of the Murdoch’s will ‘buy’ the Australian operations off the main Newscorp parent company at some stage for a bargain price. So the Murdoch curse would continue even after rupert falls off his perch or if Newscorp’s shareholders just give up on its Australian operations – they make far more elsewhere and their efforts would probably make even more money without the distraction of Australia.

    But DT and the Hun make good money.

    Again will will see.

  26. [ Fran Kelly is simply vacuous and indolent, which comes off as pro-Liberal because it simply runs with the pack. ]

    I agree it is a fine distinction.

  27. If Nick Xenophon was on a Malaysian watch list, I can only wonder where Scott Morrison sits on their greeting register.

    Partial Transcript from 7.30 28/6/2011

    [LEIGH SALES: Is it appropriate for a member of the Opposition to visit a foreign country, an ally of Australia and criticise that country’s practices?

    SCOTT MORRISON: I haven’t criticised their practice.

    LEIGH SALES: You have.

    SCOTT MORRISON: I’ve criticised the Australian Government. I’m criticising the Australian Government for entering into an arrangement that will send 800 people who are in our care into those conditions in a country that is not a signatory to the refugee convention.

    LEIGH SALES: You said the practical reality is that the Malaysian Government cannot protect the human right of these people, that’s criticising the Malaysian Government. Aren’t you breaking with a long standing tradition in Australian politics that members of the Opposition don’t travel abroad and get involved in these type of things?

    SCOTT MORRISON: I did not engage in any debate on these matters in Malaysia.

    LEIGH SALES: They’d be paying attention to your comments now.

    SCOTT MORRISON: I went to Malaysia, I saw on the ground what I would hope all Australians would want an Australian politician to do, to do his homework on what the practical realities are of this arrangement. I’ve been to Nauru and Malaysia and I know which is the more humane, cost effective and I know which is proven. As an Australian MP, as an Australian, I cannot support an arrangement that would send 800 people to what I saw in Malaysia.

  28. [If Nick Xenophon was on a Malaysian watch list, I can only wonder where Scott Morrison sits on their greeting register.]

    Add the Greens, SHY in particular, to this Malaysian watchlist after their hysterical torpedoing of regional processing by saying that all the detainees would be caned.

  29. Phil bee

    Thanks for those figures … I wonder how many of the ABC audience are people like me who turn on the radio on the hour for a news update and then turn it off again

  30. Re New Ltd’s circulation tactics, from The Guardian last year.

    [One of Rupert Murdoch’s most senior European executives has resigned following Guardian inquiries about a circulation scam at News Corporation’s flagship newspaper, the Wall Street Journal.

    The Guardian found evidence that the Journal had been channelling money through European companies in order to secretly buy thousands of copies of its own paper at a knock-down rate, misleading readers and advertisers about the Journal’s true circulation.]

  31. [Also more people listen to Newsradio that Fran Kelly.]

    Because Fran Kelly’s program is insufferably boring!

    I usually listen to whichever MP she’s interviewing if I happen to be in the car at that time, but otherwise, why bother? The format has been the same for a decade: cosy, fireside chat with Michelle ‘maybe this but then again, maybe that’ Grattan, and flogging whatever screaming headlines the OO is reporting that day.

    If I wanted to know what the OO was reporting I’d go to the source.

  32. Plus, Fran Kelly is a dreadful interviewer. Constantly interrupting and looking for gotchas. That kind of interviewing just makes me tune out.

  33. Only on PB could people Cher about an Australian politician being detained in another country because he is meeting pro-democracy leaders.

  34. [Yeah I know that; my point being that unsound pomo attacks on science – of exactly the sort Sokal sought to expose as clueless – play greatly into the hands of conservative irrationalists and fundies who are also keen to have science taken down a notch and their own babble treated as equally valid, but have no intention of being culturally permissive.]

    Pomo endorses obscurantism and says we all have our own equally valid truths.

    As you say, the Right love that as it plays into their FUD narrative and validates their post-truth politics.

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