Famously held by Gough Whitlam throughout a parliamentary career lasting from 1952 to 1978, the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa has been in Labor hands since 1931. However, it is now considered endangered for the first time in living memory after the margin was cut from 15.1% to 6.8% in 2010, followed by the devastating example of the state election the following March. The electorate in its current form covers suburbs clustered around the South Western Freeway and the Campbelltown rail line, from Macquarie Fields south to Ingleburn and Minto and north to Hoxton Park and Liverpool South, together with Liberal-voting semi-rural territory further to the west. The seat has been fundamentally altered a number of times since its creation at federation, at which time it covered Goulburn 200 kilometres to the south-west of Sydney. It was shifted eastwards to the Illawarra in 1934, when it commenced its life as a safe Labor seat, then moved northwards as far as the Sutherland Shire in 1949, and finally adopted its south-western Sydney orientation in 1955, when it covered Cabramatta and Liverpool. In remaining at Sydney’s outer edge since, it has tended to be pushed further south-westerwards over subsequent redistributions.
Labor’s Hubert Lazzarini followed his shifting electorate from 1919 until his death in 1952, except for a term after the 1931 election when it fell to the Country Party. Lazzarini was succeeded by Gough Whitlam, whose tale does not need reiterating here. John Kerin became member in 1978 when Whitlam quit in the wake of the 1977 election disaster, going on to serve a forgettable stint as Treasurer after the failure of Paul Keating’s first leadership challenge in June 1991. Kerin was followed in 1994 by the seat’s second Labor leader, Mark Latham. Although Labor’s hold on the seat was never endangered, Latham went through a wild ride in his time here in more ways than one: the seat swung 9.3% to the Liberals in 1996, 6.5% to Labor in 1998, and 4.8% to the Liberals in 2001. Latham was also disrupted when his strongest party branches were removed from the electorate in the redistribution before the 2001 election. His factional enemies, who were apparently not in short supply, argued he should instead be made to try his luck in marginal Macarthur.
Latham quit politics in January 2005 and was succeeded at a by-election by Chris Hayes, an official of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, who easily retained the seat in the absence of a Liberal candidate. Another round of Labor upheaval followed when the redistribution before the 2010 election effectively abolished the safe Labor inner Sydney seat of Reid (which survived in name but was effectively merged with neighbouring Lowe). Labor’s member for Reid was Laurie Ferguson, brother of Martin Ferguson, with whom he formed the base of a Left sub-faction that had counted Julia Gillard among its number. Ferguson was at first determined to be accommodated in Fowler, to be vacated at the election by Julia Irwin, but a deal was in force reserving the seat for the locally dominant Right. He instead settled for Werriwa under a deal Gillard was able to reach against opposition of Anthony Albanese and the Left, in which Hayes would take Fowler instead. That in turn froze out Ed Husic, national president of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, for whom Fowler had been earmarked, but he was accommodated in Chifley following Roger Price’s decision to retire.
The Liberal candidate for the coming election is Kent Johns, the Liberal mayor of Sutherland Shire, who was once a Labor mayor of Rockdale before becoming an independent. Johns reportedly won preselection with backing from factional moderate Scott Morrison. This has generated grumblings from locals aligned with the Right, who complain of having an outsider foisted upon them. Chief among the aggrieved is thwarted preselection hopeful Mark Koosache, a local school librarian and former soldier who has campaigned against cuts to entitlements for defence personnel, who says he is contemplating running as an independent and directing preferences to Labor. There has also been talk that Ferguson might bow out at the election, but he has told the local media his nomination forms have been submitted and he is set on serving another term.
Re: “frist”
[a variation of “first” posted to an online comment section to indicate that you were the first to post. the “i” and “r” often are intentionally transposed to convey the typist’s haste.]
Also, it has history dating back to the early days of Slashdot. Variations on “first post!” became so annoying that auto-moderation was implemented; from there, it became an arms race as people developed ever-more-mangled version of “frist psot!” whilst the site admins updated the auto-moderator’s rules.
CTar1
Do you seriously believe for a moment that Tony Abbott is an alternative prime minister?
He has had so many brain fades, they’re not worth mentioning.
He can barely articulate a slogan let alone a policy in any portfolio.
But that’s what Rupert loves: a compliant idiot.
He doesn’t need to get Abbott in a compromising situation, Abbott does it all by himself.
Cf. Christmas Island where Abbott tells a blonde sitting at a bar that “she’s better looking than JG.”
Imagine the youtube video of Noddy’s 2-minute solo PLUS idiotic Tone – played incessantly through the print media and on Prime Time tele.
Abbott would sink without a trace.
And the wider Australian electorate would be none the wiser that they’d been taken out the back and shot at close range.
But Abbott would know. Just like Rudd knows.
Cross Rupert at your peril.
A terrible story Von Kirsdarke.
Who knew that humans weren’t well suited to alternate between normal life, in which one respects other people, and being amoral mass killers?
Oh … that’s right … most people.
[
]
The alternative government is brought to you by Amway.
victoria, I agree with you, most do not watch closely. But I think mostly the soundbites do not register. They are like the kids in the playground at recess – all just shrieks and hollers – and to be mostly ignored.
I think what registers is the whole succession of events and images…and what we see is a PM who not only gleams whenever you look at her, but is quite clearly an emotionally and intellectually real person. In classical terms, she is a kind of hero: she has met the challenges of office when everyone was predicting her failure. She has risen above doubt and defeat. She is greatness still growing.
By contrast, the LOTO, by a long succession of self-parodies, has made himself into an anti-politician. In the end, he has succeeded only in turning himself into a Polly who wishes to deny his own identity; and who now seems to think the best he can do is get the media-fools to like him. This is not power. It is the opposite. It is rabble. He has publicly shredded himself.
Just watching Laurie Oakes’ news report, which I thought was pretty fair. I think the initial reaction to the resignations (including mine) will give way to a realisation that this isn’t disaster or chaos, and is actually quite normal in an election year.
Oakes may have been fair but Riley on channel 7 was poor. Beat-up the ‘Government in chaos’ angle and almost created the impression PM & the other two were in tears due to this ‘chaos’.
To top it off he closed with wtte ‘Tony Abbott was taking a Prime-Ministerial stance’ and played a clip of a smarmy Abbott saying wtte ‘hope the PM can steady her ship’
A warning about the Sunday programs.
[NickMcCallum7 @NickMcCallum7
What a week in politics! Election dates; Roxon, Evans quit; Thomson charged; Mathieson gaffe. It’ll be a fiery “Sunday Morning” 10am@3AW693]
Best not to listen.
Riley did his usual overplaying of the day’s events.
‘I didn’t get a leak, so it must be a disaster’
Trivia time in Werriwa:
1. Chris Hayes is related to a player in one of the Labor scandals – who and how?
2. Latham is one of three LOTOs who did not acieve ministerial rank. Who are the other two?
GC
I thought Riley and PVO were the ones who broke the story about Roxon last night.
@Fran
It’s why I’m afraid of a threat of a new war anywhere in the world.
To think that after the disgusting displays of death in Iraq and Afghanistan that there’s still people baying for war with Iran is just beyond belief.
My dad was transformed by the relatively quiet action in East Timor which he served in 2000. It horrifies me to think of how many families would be torn apart by further warfare.
Dio – the information on Roxon late last night wasn’t a leak. Was released by her staff.
[Do you seriously believe for a moment that Tony Abbott is an alternative prime minister?
He has had so many brain fades, they’re not worth mentioning.
He can barely articulate a slogan let alone a policy in any portfolio.
But that’s what Rupert loves: a compliant idiot.]
Very unkind Kezza, but absolutely true. 😆
@davidwh/50
You don’t get otherwise.
[Latham is one of three LOTOs who did not acieve ministerial rank. Who are the other two?]
John Hewson and … someone very early?
Peacock?
The feral abacus was one. The other came from my home town and his highest administrative office was to be the Mayor of Lambton-New Lambton.
William,
if you’re about, it would be lovely if you included the current margin for whatever party for the particular seat you’re doing.
I realise one can get the approximate from the moving graph, but the snapshot would be nice as well.
Thank you, if you can do.
[Beat-up the ‘Government in chaos’ angle and almost created the impression PM & the other two were in tears due to this ‘chaos’.]
Like the News ltd tabloids. Anyone who watched the press conference knew the emotion was genuine, heartfelt and solely because of the wonderful speeches given by both Chris Evans and Nicola Roxon.
I thought Roxon gave Labor its lines for the election: we’ve spent the last 5 years cleaning up the mess left to us from the Howard govt. Roxon actually said a large part of her role as Health Minister was to clean up after Abbott’s tenure as Health Minister.
Fran Barlow@18
Fran,
Have you not read the forum guidelines? – see point 7: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/comment-moderation-guidelines/
In 2010 during the election campaign, information was leaked about Gillard that made its way to the press. It was considered a bombshell and was the media’s free ticket to suggest Gillard’s authority was in tatters.
In 2013 during the faux-campaign, information was leaked about Abbott that made its way to the press. None of the media cared.
[John Hewson and … someone very early?]
That Manjimup potato farmer whose name escapes me? Or was he a minister in Court’s govt?
k2 – The ‘Tony’ I was referring to was Tony Wright …
HSO, I have tweaked my text to include that information, and will try to remember to do so in future. I should probably be including it in a little table of key facts, but that’s too much effort at this stage – it will have to wait for when I publish my full election guide.
Must depart – answers:
1. The brother of Gerard Hayes (the great new reformer of the HSU-although I was involved in a very nasty branch stack with him and I am not that impressed by his reform credentials.
2. Mattie Charlton leader of the ALP acout 1924-1928 and member for Hunter.
Darn:
Peacock was a minister.
I love the way PM Julia Gillard and World’s Best Finance Minister Wayne Swan have stuck it to Rupert Murdoch about who’s the Boss in Australia.
Everyone laughed at Swan’s gee-up listening-material regarding the last Budget.
To me, it was telling Rupert to get stuffed. We’re running Australia, not you, fker.
And, they have done so.
They do not listen to Rupert.
And, boy (little man), is he put out.
His instructions to Abbott to turn everything into a political soundbite has backfired.
Note Abbott’s churlish comments regarding Margaret Whitlam.
Note also the petty disallowance of a pair regarding Margaret Olle’s funeral, even though she was a Malcolm Turnbull constituent.
Up yours, Rupert.
Julia’s the boss, not you yanker
We may have admired your mother, but we don’t admire you. We don’t admire your children either. Lachlan may hate you, but we hate you more.
We’re not going to listen to your shite, through your children or Lachlan’s allegiance to Gina Rinehart at Channel 10, not the takeover of the one progressive newspaper we used to trust.
Thank the living jingoes for social media, blogs and twitter. We can now fight you on an even keel.
And you will never, repeat never, rob us of our say, because the NBN, that you despise, WILL make sure of that.
Suck it up, traitor.
I did check Charlton’s page on Wikipedia, where I learned that he “rose through the ranks of Andrew Fisher’s government” – whatever that means exactly. Obviously not that he served as a minister.
Thanks, William.
The full election guide is obviously going to be a most interesting, though huge piece of work.
I think I said this before, however, I’m finding the seats posts most interesting and informative.
If it was me, I’d probably want to throw in way too many variables.
William:
Do you know when WA parliament rises? I’m guessing the Senate replacement for Chris Evans will be held over until the incoming parliament sits after the election.
oh dear
the front page of tomorrow’s Sunday TelaLie
https://twitter.com/sundayteleed/status/297619544682409984/photo/1
sprocket:
It’s upside down, but is someone making a leadershit movie?
Good luck getting finance.
Latham was shadow minister for education, he resigned the ministry in 1998.
If we are ruling out shadow ministers then, Rudd also qualifies.
Fran
You might have missed this one, since William redirected at page 75 and my post was on 76.
3709 Fran
The Wizard of Id was a great source of humor, especially in the late 60s. One other I always remembered also involved the King on the campaign trail.
Question: What are you going to do about mugging in the streets?
King: I’ll build more parks.
Thirty years later I was amazed to hear John Howard invoke a similar style.
Question: What are you going to do about the high rate of youth unemployment?
Howard: I’ll make them work for the dole.
confessions @56 exactly so.
This is the smooth passing of executive power from one set of hands to the next. It is not a calamity. It is a process that proves what we all well-know – people come and go, even Cabinet Ministers.
The MSM continue to depict JG as if she is a shaky tower about to topple before our very eyes. They just do not understand how robust she is. Yet the MSM do not see this. They see only vulnerability. For mine, this reflects the deeply-embedded sexism of the media, and partly explains why they keep getting things so wrong.
Our whole lives are lived among capable, educated and energetic women who understand and exercise power in some way or another. Power is no longer an exclusively male privilege – at least in the lived experience of most voters.
The media are pitifully archaic in this respect, while voters – particularly female voters – have shown they can quite readily grab onto the idea of a powerful woman.
Of course, the sexism of the media is a subset of the still-palpable sexism of the culture generally. But I think this is one (more) thing that JG – simply by resisting derision, malice and hate, and by so firmly holding power – is also changing.
She confronted, named and silenced LOTO-sexism in the Parliament. The MSM seem not to have noticed, or to have forgotten already, but the rest of the country have not. In this respect, the rise of JG is an element in the slow re-making of the country as a whole. She is the living embodiment of the enduring struggle for equality in our culture.
Perhaps this is the very reason for the at-times quite visceral enmity directed against her.
Briefly – they know exactly how robust she is. That’s why they fight so hard to cut her down.
[CTar1
Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 7:03 pm | PERMALINK
k2 – The ‘Tony’ I was referring to was Tony Wright …]
Sorry, if I misunderstood you.
Got on a bit of a roll there.
And decided to get it off my chest.
36DD – for (wankery) gaspology’s sake.
Fess
I wasn’t confident at all about Peacock. Just a bit of a stab in the dark.
Was Evatt a Minister?
I suspect that more Aussie soldiers who served in Vietnam died of suicide than died in battle in Vietnam.
Not sure of the comparable stats for Iraq and Afghanistan but Defence has around 30,000 PTSD cases on its books. The fact that they are counting them means, presumably, that the general support situation is a bit ahead of the truly slack way successive Australian governments supported Viet Vets.
The ratio of vets:general population in jails is way higher than the ratio of vets:general population.
It is high time that the military (and/or the civil) stopped fooling themselves and started psyche injuries and psyche deaths as part of war casualties.
Hmmm Crikey gremlins seem to be at work again.
confessions – The ‘Tele’ is always upside down.
Confessions
Wa parliament done and dusted. Writs will be issue next week I think. Interestingly because of a switch to 4 year fixed terms the Barnett minority government has had 4 and a half years
From the last thread:
@Fran: I’ve known Fran Kelly for (on and off) nearly 30 years so I’m somewhat biased in her favour. She certainly isn’t a Liberal stooge as some here have alleged, but she has strange ideas about journalistic “balance.” Her idea seems to be that the government of the day and the “serious” media must of necessity have an adversarial relationship. She sees it as the media’s job to criticise whatever the government does, and to give critics of the government far more airtime than supporters. Since we have a Labor government, this means of course that her programme is “objectively anti-Labor”, whatever she thinks she is doing.
From the last thread
I see from the ALP publicity photos at the Nova Peris facebook page that she has a white husband.
https://www.facebook.com/adam.j.carr#!/photo.php?fbid=466787070041221&set=a.466786573374604.121840.459160564137205&type=1&theater
This means that she will be exposed to the same campaign of covert racial denigration, as “not a real blackfella”, in the NT Indigenous community that Rioli and other ALP candidates were at the NT elections. No doubt the CLP will find some “authentic” Indigenous candidate to run as an “independent” against her. I trust the ALP is much more awake to this tactic now than they were then and has a strategy to combat it. I trust…
William, labor has held Werriwa since 1934, not 1931.
Boerwar,
How about you cite some stats to support your assertions.
kez – Thought so with no effort.
We can quip another day?
Have you moved those Tower blocks in the jig-saw for me yet?
Keep good.
briefly:
You’ll remember that Alannah MacTiernan copped similar treatment. Her hair was wrong, there was that time she made the front page of the West because of some strange, geometric outfit she had on the previous day (and because her hair was lopsided).
Like Gillard, she was competent. Remember that our tabloid media seemingly hates tall poppies, esp if they excel in fields tabloid readers can’t get their heads around.