Having proved more than a few detractors wrong in avoiding defeat on the floor of parliament to this point, the Gillard government must face the polls at some time this year, by no later than November 30. Should it push the election date out as far as it can go, it will have extended its “three-year term” to three years and three months, the date of the 2010 election having been August 21. This is because the clock on the three-year term does not start ticking until the first sitting of parliament, which was on September 28, 2010. Once the parliamentary term expires, there can be a 10-day gap before the writs are issued, as many as 27 days for the ensuing nominations period, and a further campaign period of up to 31 days until polling day. The minority government agreement reached with Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott after the 2010 election stipulated the “full term” to be served should continue until September or October. The Howard government provided handy precedents in this respect, having held out for at least an extra month in 2001 and 2007 without incurring too much opprobrium.
The other end of the equation is how soon the election can be held. In theory, an election for the House of Representatives can be held at any time, so long as one dispenses with the assumption that it will be held concurrently with a half-Senate election (the time where a double dissolution might have been a theoretical possibility having already passed). A House-only election would put election timing for the two houses out of sync, something governments have been determined in avoiding since the last such election was held in 1972. There were theories abroad that the government might nonetheless have just such an election in mind, either to seize advantage of an upswing in the polls or to spare itself the embarrassment of failing to bring down a budget surplus. However, the government’s pre-Christmas withdrawal from the surplus commitment — together with the Prime Minister’s recent insistence the election date will be “around three years since the last one” — make it a safe bet the House’s election timetable will indeed be tied to the Senate’s.
The next half-Senate election will be held to replace senators who were elected when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007. They began their terms in mid-2008 and will end their terms in mid-2014. The election process must begin in the final year of the six-year term, namely from the middle of this year. Since the process involves a campaign period of at least 33 days, the earliest plausible date is August 3 — less than three weeks before the third anniversary of the 2010 election. School holidays in various states between September 21 and October 12 offer a complication for part of the period nominated by Windsor and Oakeshott, although Howard’s decision to hold the 2004 election on October 9 showed that only the consecutive AFL and NRL grand final weekends were (in Howard’s own words) “sacrosanct”.
The best bets therefore seem to be the first three Saturdays in September (the 7th, 14th and 21st) and the last three in October (the 12th, 19th and 26th), with the proximity of the three-year election anniversary strengthening the case for September over October.
Mod Lib is right about Newspoll – it’s not agenda-driven or more or less biased than any other poll. If you think it is you’re on par with the Tea Party nutjobs who were convinced Romney was a shoo in because of the evil liberal media deliberately skewing the results in the Democrat’s favour.
It’s not a good look.
Mod Lib, I can see the leaky barge, the LNP, underpowered and overloaded, her sides smacked by the tides of opinion, her crew insulted by breezy public mockery, her decks awash with embarrassment, as she is forced onto the rocks of rejection. They should get their life jackets ready. They will need them.
Oakeshott County
Seems to me Erlich has got some of the general trends right and the detail wrong. Fish stocks, for instance, have certainly gone down.
However, I’m not going to agree with all the social prognostications from 1975. He seems to have been very UK-centred. Food wars are far more universal than just there.
I think like most elections, supporters of both teams will go into the grand final quite optimistic about winning.
Psephos:
So are you changing your previously held view that Gillard is going to lose the 2013 election?
Wow the wind speeds expected for Exmouth tomorrow morning as Narelle sails down the coast.
http://wind.willyweather.com.au/wa/gascoyne/exmouth.html
confessions, don’t you just luv willyweather? I check it daily.
mod lib
Whilst the polls favour the liberals and have done so for a long time. You say the PPM and leader does not count. It is the 2pp voting intention. All well and good. So even though PMJG is preferred over Abbott, why do you continually suggest that Labor,will lose because of PMJG being unpopular?
[briefly
Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 3:22 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib, I can see the leaky barge, the LNP, underpowered and overloaded, her sides smacked by the tides of opinion, her crew insulted by breezy public mockery, her decks awash with embarrassment, as she is forced onto the rocks of rejection. They should get their life jackets ready. They will need them.]
Firstly, very nicely written! 🙂
Secondly, don’t forget MT and his lifeboat tied to the back that can take the ship away from the rocks and to the promise land, whenever the LNP backbenchers say the word! 😀
briefly:
Yes, I love it. And I check it daily as well.
Mod Lib
You’re cherry picking. You quote polls but neglect the undeniable trend confirmed by aggregates and the concurrent rise of Gillard’s strong numbers as PPM. It therefore stands to reason that MB is not ignoring the polls but is in fact buoyed by them. No doubt he is also drawing confidence (as do I) from their policy advantage, our nations economic strengths and Labor being the incumbent. All positives as we drawer ever closer to an inevitable tightening and the full engagement of the electorate.
If as you say, getting out and about gives a different perspective then I would point you to the rise of social media V’s OM, their differing appeal into vastly different audience numbers and their contrary views and expressions. All point to underlying problems for the Coalition coming home to roost.
[So even though PMJG is preferred over Abbott, why do you continually suggest that Labor,will lose because of PMJG being unpopular?]
A few points here:
1. Gillard is preferred over Abbott at the moment. Where were all of you when Abbott was neck and neck with her, and beating her on approval levels? A little selective poll reading perhaps? I have consistently said that it is voting intentions that matter to me.
2. In my recollection PPM and Approval ratings have not been good predictors of how people have actually voted. I know others have done detailed analyses of these things so I will let them clarify, but opinion polls have been pretty close to the mark so there is not reason to use anything else over them.
3. Psephos says that the voting intentions will change if the approvals and PPM improve for Gillard. I don’t disagree with that, but the central point remains. You look at the voting intentions not the PPM.
Thanks ML 🙂
I think the LNP is in the hands of armed pirates who will not have Turnbull, in his pressed whites and plimsolls back on the bridge again. Besides, his lifeboat is just a kayak. I think he will paddle away when the time comes, while the barge goes under.
[So are you changing your previously held view that Gillard is going to lose the 2013 election?]
I’m wavering. On balance I still think the Libs will win, but I’m increasingly agnostic. I’ve been surprised at how badly Abbott has tanked since July.
[I’ve been surprised at how badly Abbott has tanked since July.]
He has lasted a very long time as LOTO and the ALP have done a nice job on him with their smear campaign.
Fingers crossed it will do the trick and bring us an Turnbull leadership (Mark #2) soon!!!!!
[briefly
Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 3:36 pm | PERMALINK]
😀
I concede defeat!
[Fingers crossed it will do the trick and bring us an Turnbull leadership (Mark #2) soon!!!!!]
Ya dreamin’ 😉
Best bet: POLICY
Current arsenal: ZIP
Back-up plan: Bag Labors
Support network isolated: Public Service, Science, Ecomomists, Treasury, IMF.
Good luck.
[He has lasted a very long time as LOTO and the ALP have done a nice job on him with their smear campaign. ]
It’s true that not many LOTOs get a second consecutive go. Beazley was the last, and he didn’t win the second time. As for smear campaigns, these are in the eye of the beholder. Labor supporters would say all we have done is tell the truth about Abbott, which is quite bad enough. Anyway Abbott is the king of smear so he can’t complain.
Gough Whitlam: “I will make an offer to the Prime Minister [Gorton]. If we doesn’t tell lies about me, I won’t tell the truth about him.”
[the ALP have done a nice job on him with their smear campaign.]
Diddums. You will forgive me if I don’t weep too loudly for Tony.
[I concede defeat!]
How to vote card and union enrolment form in the mail. Welcome brother. :devil:
I weep not myself!
Just calling a spade a spade though, that is what it was (and is) and it is the nature of the current political paradigm in which we find ourselves I guess.
More to come in 2013…
[Abbott’s standing is poor, and declining. Voters don’t like him, they don’t like his scare campaigns and they don’t like his stunts.]
And it always has been, and they never have.
Which is a huge negative against him and the Coalition’s chances, that is starting to bite them hard.
[…and the ALP have done a nice job on him with their smear campaign. ]
Abbott and his track record are his own smear campaign against himself. All his opponents have to do is point that out.
To hear him proclaiming that this campaign is about ‘character’ is just hilarious, in a sick twisted kind of way.
There are some very, very interesting demographic changes underway in this country that will have profound economic and political implications in the future. In particular, baby-boomers started to retire in 2010, and we are already seeing a decline in two important measures of the labour market – the employment ratio and the participation rate. These are both now falling, which means that the unemployment rate is no longer really measuring the state of the labour market. As well, the skilled migrant intake is becoming ever more important to the dynamism and growth of the economy.
These changes will affect the trajectory of growth and the distribution of household incomes, savings, consumption, and will affect individual engagement in work, study and retirement in all kinds of ways. At the very least, this means policies in relation to income support, retirement earnings and savings, adult education and labour market attachment/transition (unemployment and under-employment) will become increasingly important.
We have to hope the government is putting a political focus on these things, which are already being taken seriously by the ABS, the public service, academics and private economists.
Testing!
Blimey it’s hot. Might be why so many normally moderate people here seem to be taking shots at others and taking offence so easily.
Maybe? Even so, it’s a shame and a sad reflection on usually good people.
Just my thoughts. If stuck in moderation for 6 or 8 hours, then please delete as they won’t be read anyway.
[2716
Mod Lib
briefly
Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 3:36 pm | PERMALINK
😀
I concede defeat!]
I always hoped persuasion would work before torture, a technique that has been licenced by the Greens….
[the ALP have done a nice job on him with their smear campaign.]
Abbott’s worst enemy is himself. Labor’s ‘smear’ campaign (if you can even call it that) has just been the icing on top.
[More to come in 2013…]
Well, in my view, Labor should be focusing on propping itself up, not just trashing the other side. No, not out of naive idealism but because Abbott’s popularity is already in the mud and, every poll I have seen in the last 6 months that has seen a rise for Labor has coincided with Gillard’s approval numbers increasing (and can be linked to something occurring that improved her image.)
Similarly, the sudden slump at the end of last year coincided with Gillard’s character being attacked with the new round of S&G allegations.
Not saying pretend that Abbott isn’t there, but the key will be regaining enough approval, that majority of voters will see it as an acceptable option to retain the government, rather than think “anything is better than this government” – which is what Abbott is banking on.
confessions, Abbott has made himself into a kind of soap actor. He is become a player in search of a role. I think the public see right through him. He is lemonade posing as VB.
Labor has the upper hand now.
Things changed in the last quarter and the Opposition is at sixes and sevens now and they simply don’t have the personnel to do other than run conspiracies.
They need new blood in their ranks.
The chutzpah of Liberal party supporters whining about “smear campaigns” after the AWU hyperventilation is breathtaking.
briefly:
All his appearances in high vis are now look like parodies of the Abbott of the last 2 years.
[Bobalot
Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 4:02 pm | PERMALINK
The chutzpah of Liberal party supporters whining about “smear campaigns” after the AWU hyperventilation is breathtaking.]
Smear campaign against Thomson?
“@guytaur: The best economic managers. The Labor Party.The facts are in. Thanks IMF #auspol”
[Well, in my view, Labor should be focusing on propping itself up, not just trashing the other side. No, not out of naive idealism but because Abbott’s popularity is already in the mud and, every poll I have seen in the last 6 months that has seen a rise for Labor has coincided with Gillard’s approval numbers increasing (and can be linked to something occurring that improved her image.)]
Exactly so. Labor’s recovery has resulted from Gillard’s big policy wins – mining tax, carbon price, NBN, NDIS, plain packaging, etc, which have left Abbott looking clueless. Labor needs to build a positive basis for re-election, not just attack Abbott, although that’s important too.
That’s why Labor would be ill-advised to follow tempting diversions like an inquiry into the Slipper-Ashby case. An inquiry MIGHT finish before election day and it MIGHT find a smoking gun to implicate Abbott, but it probably wouldn’t, and it certainly would district voters from Labor’s positive message.
[Abbott’s worst enemy is himself. Labor’s ‘smear’ campaign (if you can even call it that) has just been the icing on top.]
It is not a “smear” to simply quote Abbott’s offensive remarks.
The misogyny speech resonated so much as it simply reminded everyone why they (had) despised Abbott and his views.
Many voters had forgot he’d said all those things, particularly since the ABC/Fairfax/News Ltd alliance had been routinely airbrushing Abbott since 2010.
Mr Abbott still has not repudiated his previous hate-filled comments on gays, abortion, fertility and women — he has just wheeled out staffers and a sexually ambiguous front-bencher to assure us he is not that bad, rather than his saying he has moved on from those offensive views.
I agree that the Ashby thing should be left alone.
Every one who has been listening even a bit knows that he was a suitable target for ‘fitting up’ and it happened.
It will run to it’s natural conclusion and is not in any way a credit to the Libs.
They smell.
@smh: A new temperature record has been set with one town clocking up 49.2 degrees. http://t.co/RpqhMphV #heatwave
I like the way ModLib can refer to a 6% improvement in the polls for Labor over the year, and conclude from that that the Libs are a shoe in!
A year ago we were being told that it didn’t matter what Gillard or Labor did, people had stopped listening and nothing would change them.
A 6% change in intentions is more than a little significant.
The important thing when looking at that shift in polling is to ask how the Liberals can stop it drifting further. That shift happened when voters weren’t really paying attention.
Surely that suggests that when voters do start paying attention, there is potential for further shifting?
ML
How do you think the LNP are going to counter the independent IMF calling Labor the best economic managers.
Do you think voters will believe these counter claims
Darren:
The speech resonated so much because everything the PM said about Abbott was true!
confessions, you’re absolutely right. Personally I think it is very funny. That they continue to try things on just makes Abbott look even more like something from a panto. It is very funny. It would be great if Albo could do a bit of parody in Parliament…they Libs would explode…
Psephos, I think you’re right. The Government has come a long way. They can win and win well if they stick to their game.
And again we have ModLib criticising Labor for attacking Abbott whilst wanting Abbott gone.
ModLib, no matter how badly Abbott performs between now and the election, there is no way MT is coming back. Get that through your head.
There is no way that the Sophie Mirabellas, the Corey Bernardis, the Bronwyn Bishops will support him in a fit. And they are the face of the modern Liberal party.
And that means you’ll be voting Labor.
zoomster:
You are right, there are no certainties in elections, thats part of the reason they are so interesting (for me at least) to follow.
If there is further tightening in the polls I suspect you are right- GAME ON!
Part of the improvement in Gillard’s standing is likely to be sympathy for the passing of her father. We will see this year whether she is in a recovery phase or whether she was experiencing a “Bligh bounce” (as I suspect), right before the shellacking.
[The speech resonated so much because everything the PM said about Abbott was true!]
Exactly! But many people had forgot.
It was a timely reminder and Abbott brought it on himself by going too far with his hypocrisy — that will be his downfall during the campaign — he does not know when to back off.
[And that means you’ll be voting Labor.]
Or he is here just to stir – to somehow attack Labor from the left – yet claim voting Liberal is somehow acceptable.
A twisted logic at best — shit stirring a Labor-dominated blog far more likely!
[Part of the improvement in Gillard’s standing is likely to be sympathy for the passing of her father.]
Eastern Suburbs wishful thinking envelope on full display!
😆
[Do you think voters will believe these counter claims]
I think the voters believe the LNP are better economic managers.
The ALP gave up on their economic record credentials when they trashed the Rudd Prime Ministership.
Happy to agree that Abbott is doing himself …slowly 🙂
But imo Julia’s brilliant response to Abbott’s scathing misogyny attack injured him severely (I think fatally). His ridiculous behaviour pulling those shameless & transparent stunts is part of his desperate attempt to gain some ascendency over her.
Trouble is Abbott’s obsessive determination to exact revenge has led him into a recklessness which I believe will become a vortex & swallow him up ( as JG said once: “he always goes too far”) …he can’t/won’t EVER admit he was bested by a ‘sheila’ fair & square.
We’re at the end of the second week of an election year & apart from signalling a return to Workchoices …there is no sign of the promised Coalition suite of policies. Even IF they launch some policies Abbott has shown himself completely unable to sell anything positive …three word slogans won’t cut it any more.
Abbott is the most incompetent …ill-prepared …ignorant pollie I’ve ever seen in the Federal sphere …he can’t answer hard questions …he doesn’t read important documents …& Julia would absolutely demolish him in any policy debate ( bet he tries to wriggle out of any face to face debates).
No …Abbott is a wannabe …completely out of his depth ..and an embarrassment to Australia …bring it on!!!
Mod Lib,
I remembered reading an analysis that Possum had done last year on the relationship between the net sat ratings for PMs and their party’s electoral fate.
I’m unable to do the link, but it’s still there on Pollytics site dated 29th September 2012, if you’d like to have a look. Then get back to us.
IMO, the next lot of polls are going to be very interesting on the net sat figures, as Abbott is now inducing either cringing or snorting derision and laughter among even rusted on Libs..
Further, the Libs can’ drop him, they’d have to reverse too much they’ve been banging on about for the last 2 years and there’s not sufficient time.
[Part of the improvement in Gillard’s standing is likely to be sympathy for the passing of her father.]
That sort of ‘sympathy’ lasts a day in politics.
What a facile assertion by Mod Lib.