Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

Comments Page 9 of 13
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  2. [Thanks fiona. Glad it wasn’t rummel.]

    Not too fast Confessions… think of the bigger picture… was the injured fire fighter a Labor voter? :devil:

  4. Darren

    Yes I’m hoping william might consider letting bb et al help with moderation here when he’s busy

    They did a sterling job at joes and created a great place which was welcoming and angst free.

  5. If margo kingston sources are correct

    The coalition can not criticise labor, It was Abbott who defended slipper in 2010 about his travel habits

    Abbott has the coalition is more damage mode

  10. Regarding Slipper I am peeved. Look at the media coverage. Compare and contrast with Judge Rares judment against Ashby.

    😡

  13. confessions@404


    Darren

    Yes I’m hoping william might consider letting bb et al help with moderation here when he’s busy

    They did a sterling job at joes and created a great place which was welcoming and angst free.

    Yep sure. Just go there and read all the angst in the last page and you will get the picture.

    Their idea of moderation is a travesty.

    PB is, and always has been, less angst ridden than that other site. Post after post moans about imagined mis-deeds of others.

  14. <a href="davidwh@377


    kakuru well some Jews were seen cheering as the towers fell apparently. And that airliner we all seen hit the second tower was actually a crusie missile made to look like an airliner apparently. Then of course no actual plane parts were found at the Pentagon site despite all those TV pictures we saw. And of course all those passengers talking to their loved ones on mobiles in the Pensy flight weren’t really talking to their loved ones. Then there were all those traffic controllers who only thought they were tracking the flight of the aircraft when in fact there were never any aircraft. Not to mention all the eye witnesses who saw plans fly into buildings and such.

    So many holes in the official version of events.

    “>davidwh@377


    kakuru well some Jews were seen cheering as the towers fell apparently. And that airliner we all seen hit the second tower was actually a crusie missile made to look like an airliner apparently. Then of course no actual plane parts were found at the Pentagon site despite all those TV pictures we saw. And of course all those passengers talking to their loved ones on mobiles in the Pensy flight weren’t really talking to their loved ones. Then there were all those traffic controllers who only thought they were tracking the flight of the aircraft when in fact there were never any aircraft. Not to mention all the eye witnesses who saw plans fly into buildings and such.

    So many holes in the official version of events.

    davidwh@377


    kakuru well some Jews were seen cheering as the towers fell apparently. And that airliner we all seen hit the second tower was actually a crusie missile made to look like an airliner apparently. Then of course no actual plane parts were found at the Pentagon site despite all those TV pictures we saw. And of course all those passengers talking to their loved ones on mobiles in the Pensy flight weren’t really talking to their loved ones. Then there were all those traffic controllers who only thought they were tracking the flight of the aircraft when in fact there were never any aircraft. Not to mention all the eye witnesses who saw plans fly into buildings and such.

    So many holes in the official version of events.

    Two planes , 3 towers fall down ( Building 7 )Nasa picked up molten metal from space ? Traces of Thermite.Bush family involved in towers sercurity. There was french brothers making a movie about Firemen at the time and was there when it happened and you can hear the explosions going off in the buildings. Funny how they fell on top of themselves , like a perfect Demo job and the jewish owner insured them to the hilt , old buildings , not fully tenanted out and full of James hardy products. No photos of the Pentagon plane hitting the the spot where Accountants were trying to find out where the 9 Billion dollars went missing from. Dick Cheney mentioned it the night before ? a lot of Footage went missing ? etc etc etc ……………

  15. All this bush-lawyering is beside the point, which is that politically Slipper is on the nose. The government will not want to do anything this year that will remind the public of the whole sorry Slipper saga and distract from the government’s positive messaging. Hence, as I said last year, no enquiry into Slipper v Ashby.

  16. I suggested ML but it didn’t go over too well. 🙂

    The trouble with having a moderator who also posts a lot is that you nearly always end up with fights about biased moderation and cliques. The way William moderates pretty well does away with those types of disputes and is the reason why this place runs pretty smoothly.

  19. Hi bemused.

    I was a bit annoyed at your treatment when I posted so it was a bit snarkier than I would normally like but that’s water under the bridge.

  20. davidwh
    Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

    I suggested ML but it didn’t go over too well. 🙂 —————————————————

    Lol david ,

  21. rummell

    More strength to your arm. I would be “shit scared” as well but you will be fine. And your “semi green troops” will have a wise head to guide them.

    Take care of you and yours and thank you very much for what you do.

    A lapsed Catholic I am but I will say a quiet prayer for you all. Good luck and keep your chin up. We will all be thinking of you all.

  24. davidwh@416


    I suggested ML but it didn’t go over too well.

    The trouble with having a moderator who also posts a lot is that you nearly always end up with fights about biased moderation and cliques. The way William moderates pretty well does away with those types of disputes and is the reason why this place runs pretty smoothly.

    I recommend ShowsOn as a moderator.
    Now that would be different. 😉

  26. [Hence, as I said last year, no enquiry into Slipper v Ashby.]

    Particularly if the most egregious aspect to Ashby, the diaries, are in the prosecution brief against Slipper.

    Given the relatively modest sum said to be involved, there won’t be a jury.

  27. Gecko@418


    Take a Bex Lord Barry… aliens don’t take the over anxious and you’ll miss the probe.

    Do they still make Bex ? and I will be glad to miss the Probe.
    WB , Crank comment ? they have got to you ? Ha Ha Ha Time will tell.

  29. Rummel, we all hope you guys get through tomorrow safe and sound, and have a fairly boring day.
    I still recall the orange glow and the embers blowing across into my mother’s backyard on 18/1/03, and the devastation I saw down south when my father, an SES volunteer, took me down there to see what had happened. The place across the road from his then-girlfriend was one that was destroyed.
    We’ll be making sure all necessary items are in the car tonight, just in case the worst happens tomorrow.

  30. kevjohnno@419


    Hi bemused.

    I was a bit annoyed at your treatment when I posted so it was a bit snarkier than I would normally like but that’s water under the bridge.

    Yes, it was pretty rancid, but pretty much what I was expecting to happen as soon as an excuse could be concocted.
    A little authority often brings out the inner fascist or bully.
    William is remarkably free of that trait.

  32. CTar1@422


    bemused – Who checks the oil?

    That’s where the petro-chemical real risk exists, sucker!

    Please provide a complete list of all outstanding questions and I will respond.

  34. This could place the government’s slim majority under pressure on contentious pieces of legislation, but would not likely see it fall.

    Labor currently has about 76 votes to the Coalition’s 74 (if Green Adam Bandt, independents Craig Thomson, Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor are counted with Labor and Bob Katter, Tony Crook and Peter Slipper are counted with the Opposition).

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-to-face-dishonesty-court-hearing-20130107-2ccgf.html#ixzz2HH3gPSrb

    ———————–

    deliberate misleading propaganda from the smh

    on anohter side

    On Monday, a government source downplayed the news of the summons, saying the offences mentioned by the AFP did not relate to Mr Ashby’s claims.

    It is understood they relate to three Comcar trips in 2010, in which Mr Slipper – who was then a Coalition MP – travelled beyond the allowed Canberra region. The trips are understood amount to about $900.

  35. rummel@428


    MTBW

    will have a wise head to guide them


    I will remember that one

    rummel, I don’t envy you in what you will face over the next few days.

    Keep safe and look after your team.

    I look forward to your reports of the action when you return safely.

  37. Interesting the Slipper stuff. Will be good for driving the outrage meter on the more right wing parts of the blogosphere but somehow, i dont think a magistrate is going to hand down a custodial sentence of more than 12 months over this even if he is found guilty??

    What will be interesting is how hard the Fiberals run on it? They are trying for a new positive image based on policy this year aren’t they? 🙂

    Also, any attention they pay to this will tie into the Ashby stuff where there has been an actual, Federal Court judgement against people they are involved with and one of them they have pre-selected. Can they be seen to be going hard on Slipper (for stuff that happened while he was one of them) and ignore that??

    Hmm…actually they probably can, they have a very low bar to jump after all.

  38. [This could place the government’s slim majority under pressure on contentious pieces of legislation, but would not likely see it fall.]

    Oh for goodness sake.

  39. William Bowe@433


    Bemused, try and stretch your memory back to some things that were said an hour or two ago.

    Gee William, you are being a bit tough in your interpretation. I particularly wished to thank kevjohnno as he stuck his neck out for me and I can’t remember even having any exchange of posts before.

  41. imacca
    Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    What will be interesting is how hard the Fiberals run on it?

    ————————————–
    They cant because

    He was one of them , and Abbott defended his travel claims

  43. Tony Abbott words have back to haunt him

    He has said in an i interview on the 7:30p report

    We will see who slipper ends up damaging

    Abbott it looks like , the lnp and you

  44. imacca@437


    Interesting the Slipper stuff. Will be good for driving the outrage meter on the more right wing parts of the blogosphere but somehow, i dont think a magistrate is going to hand down a custodial sentence of more than 12 months over this even if he is found guilty??

    The actual sentence doesn’t matter. IIRC, he just has to be convicted of an offence carrying a maximum penalty of 1? year. I thought it was actually 2 years but someone earlier said one year.

    So even if he gets off with a small fine, the fact the offence carried a max of 5 years on conviction is enough for him to be tossed out of Parliament.

    Can a lawyer confirm this or correct it?

  46. Question

    Where did we ended up with the 180,000 odd unregistered voters revealed in the census and the government plan to introduce automatic registration?

  47. If he is convicted of anything involving misuse of taxpayer money he will be under great pressure to resign, even if the sentence is not heavy enough to render his seat vacant.

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