Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

Comments Page 8 of 13
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  1. Michael@345


    A friend of mine had a couple of Canberra Taxis some years ago. I used to do his accounts for him for a year or two. It was a common place to see Vouchers unfilled but signed in the takings, mostly from members and their staff. The drivers had always filled in the value in the numerical field, but seldom the rest. (One driver had a disconcerting habit of inserting the name of a then prominent brothel in all the destination boxes).
    To obtain a conviction in the Canberra Magistrates Court, I think the prosecution will have to prove that the signing took place before the value figure was inserted. Whilst this is usually the case, it might be more difficult to prove than expected, unlesss the Feds have a tame driver willing to give evidence (and claim an exceptional memory!).

    Classic 😆 😆 😆

    I see many hurdles the prosecution will have to clear, including that one you identify.

  4. Psephos@237


    Psephos, where does your irrational sensitivity on such matters come from?


    From reading European history, and more recently Middle Eastern history.

    There was a link someone posted on Twitter at the weekend with a photo of a Jewish guy and a Palestinian guy holding up a placard calling for peace and co-existence (forget exact words). Isn’t that what any sane person would support?


    Well of course. But what does that mean in practice? For there to be “co-existence” between Israel and a Palestinian state, each must recognise the legitimate existence of the other. This the Palestinians adamantly refuse to do. Both Hamas and Fatah remain formally committed to the destruction of Israel. At every Palestinian demo, they chant “from the river to the sea.” Every Palestinian school, TV station and newspaper preaches death to the Jews. Israel’s position is that it is ready to open negotiations for a final status settlement when the Palestinians recognise Israel. Netanyahu stated that very clearly at the UN last year. Until the Palestinians are willing to admit defeat and recognise Israel, there will be no settlement and no “peace and co-existence.”

    What country would like to be Israel’s neighbor ??? Trigger happy Nuclear armed religious wan#ers. They even murder their friends .They have their finger prints all over the Twin Towers.Hopefully , Obama will try to stop their lobby groups in Washington this year.

  5. Psephos
    Last night on SBS there was a doco called “Freakonomics” and it went into that study on the decrease in crime rates. It showed reasonably compelling indications of cause and effect based upon the number of unwanted children in various states (with and without readily available legal abortions) and the crime rates as the cohorts changed 18 to 25 years after the abortion changes. This was linked to studies that showed a direct and strong correlation between frequency of crime and whether or not the felons were judged ads wanted or unwanted.
    About one half of the reductions were attributed to the abortion legislation and practices.

  7. Lord Barry Bonkton @ 354
    [What country would like to be Israel’s neighbor ??? Trigger happy Nuclear armed religious wan#ers. They even murder their friends .They have their finger prints all over the Twin Towers.Hopefully , Obama will try to stop their lobby groups in Washington this year.]
    I think you go way too far with that Twin towers allegation. 🙁

  8. Bemused @ 337.
    It’s a beat up. Newer drugs = more expensive. Also, numbers of people with both substance abuse, particularly new illicit drugs such as Kronic + Psychotic symptoms hitting our acute services = more drugs + the expensive ones to try and settle them before the, literally, tear a room apart with their bare hands. True story from late last year.

  10. BK @ 355

    I read an article in the last few days that attributed the reduction in crime to the phasing out of leaded petrol. It seems the evidence for that is far more persuasive as different states phased it out at different times and the relationship holds in all states.

    It is to do with the effect of lead on the brain lowering intelligence and making males in particular more potentially violent.

    If interested, I will try to find it.

  14. bemused
    There is no doubt that it is a multivariable input. Given the extent and number of social and environmental changes in the US in recent decades the change could be due to anything and everything.

  16. Confessions,

    [Apparently a firefighter has been injured near canberra.]

    I don’t think he was rostered on today but … here’s hoping that whoever it is will be okay.

  17. Shellbell at 350 confirmed that dishonesty must be proven in the Slipper case.
    that’s good I feel more confident about his chances then. call me shallow but if he gets off this charge he can still have a go at Ray Hadley for defamation.

  19. Harry “Snapper” Organs@358


    Bemused @ 337.
    It’s a beat up. Newer drugs = more expensive. Also, numbers of people with both substance abuse, particularly new illicit drugs such as Kronic + Psychotic symptoms hitting our acute services = more drugs + the expensive ones to try and settle them before the, literally, tear a room apart with their bare hands. True story from late last year.

    Thanks HSO.
    The biggest problem I know of with CTOs is inadequate supervision which in some cases has led to tragic results.

  27. kakuru well some Jews were seen cheering as the towers fell apparently. And that airliner we all seen hit the second tower was actually a crusie missile made to look like an airliner apparently. Then of course no actual plane parts were found at the Pentagon site despite all those TV pictures we saw. And of course all those passengers talking to their loved ones on mobiles in the Pensy flight weren’t really talking to their loved ones. Then there were all those traffic controllers who only thought they were tracking the flight of the aircraft when in fact there were never any aircraft. Not to mention all the eye witnesses who saw plans fly into buildings and such.

    So many holes in the official version of events.

  31. [ Just heard bob car on the radio. In reckon he’s the best foreign minister we’ve had in a long long time. ]

    The best since Kevin Rudd at any rate. 😉

  34. CTar1@383


    bemused – You’re a disappointment.

    And here I was thinking you knew stuff about petrol!

    I can operate a self serve bowser and have some recollection of the chemistry of the hydrocarbons found in petrol from my high school chemistry.

    Now, what else do I need to know? 😛

  35. @margokingston1: BREAKING NEWS: Sources say the Slipper charges involve 3 lots of cab travel in 2010 and in total involve less than $1000.00.

    So when he was a humble Liberal backbencher…..

  38. For anyone concerned about Rummel – not him:

    [Queanbeyan RFS CAT1 ‏@QBNCAT1

    Our thoughts go out to the RFS member who was injured and the crew next door in Yass Zone who was over run today]

    As are mine.

  40. As I tweeted today:

    In Australia of 2013, I think any day where the media and/or the public are talking about abortion, contraception or IVF is a bad day politically for Abbott. It just reinforces people’s existing (and in my opinion, well founded) negative views of Abbott’s social conservatism towards women, regardless of the “new nuanced” information being pushed.

    Why Credlin chose to the start the year like this is beyond me — she is either inept, or she and her husband are considering changing their support to Turnbull…

    If we are still talking about IVF or contraception in 6 months’ time, then Abbott has no chance.

  41. Fiona, it WA $345 per day

    All up in the first 6 months of 2012 Tony Abbott wasted over $439,000 of taxpayers money criss crossing the country doing stunts to scar the pants off people re .Carbon Tax. All kosher I ‘m sure, but hardly value for money.

  42. CTar1@387


    bemused

    Now, what else do I need to know?


    Other than you really should stop sniffing, nothing.

    Before I could stop, I would have to start. So your advice is superfluous as I have no intention of starting.

    Glad we cleared that up. 😀

  44. Sprocket,

    Kosher as in legal, no doubt, but hardly ethical given his assertion that all the pollies were paying their own expenses.

  46. The other thing about Abbott’s Pollie Pedal which really gets my goat up is twofold:

    1. He attracts “donations” from sponsors like big pharma who then have his ear when funding decisions are made. One step removed from political fund raisers, but a blurry step when you see photos of Abbott bedecked in sponsors Lycra

    2. This notion that charitable deeds, raising money for charities to do good works like feeding the poor, finding jobs for people, running schools is Abbott’s dream for the future. Destroy the welfare state, and have noble charities take on the burden.

  47. I should also take this opportunity to wish everyone a happy new year. Well done to Bushfire and the gang for the summer session – even if it was all too complicated for me to log in 😉

    Either way, I am sure William now has some trusted understudies should he need some “study leave” during the year before the election campaign (and associated polling) kicks off.

  49. I’m fine.

    I am organising crews for tomorrow’s hell. I’m shit scared! I have been to fires in this CATASTROPHIC fire weather before and it’s not fun. In fact, it’s near on as close to hell one can get while being alive.

    My job tomorrow is to lead a crew of semi green troops into a hell they have never experienced before and bring them home safe.

  50. Slipper charges involve 3 lots of cab travel in 2010 and in total involve less than $1000.00. – i can only assume AFP spent $100,000 already

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