Happy new year

Comments return to the Poll Bludger after two weeks of hot-weather hibernation.

Welcome back. While we were away:

• Newspoll published state results for every mainland state except Western Australia, where an election will be held on March 9, the result for which can presumably be expected shortly. There was also Newspoll’s quarterly geographical and demographic aggregate for federal voting intention. Essential Research provided state voting intention results for the three largest states, exclusive to the Poll Bludger. Posts on each of these releases can be found below this one.

• Newspoll also published results from its mid-December poll finding improving confidence for standard of living, with 13% expecting an improvement over the next six months (up one), 58% expecting it to stay the same (up eight) and 27% expecting it to worsen (down nine). GhostWhoVotes also provided Newspoll findings from a mid-year survey into appreciation of the ABC, which was found to be immensely and deservedly greater than anything the organisation’s critics at News Limited could ever dream of.

• A generally commendable discussion paper on electoral reform by the Queensland government caught the attention of the media and the federal government by floating, among many other things, the possibility that compulsory voting might be abolished. In this it was no different from the green paper composed for the Rudd government in 2009 by then Special Minister of State John Faulkner, but such has been the Newman government’s penchant for radicalism that its thought bubbles are being treated with greater than usual seriousness.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

644 comments on “Happy new year”

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  1. Davidwh

    In the event Brough wins Fisher the ALP will never let him off the hook re his role in the Slipper/Ashby affair. He is damaged beyond his usefulness and will be a major liability whichever way the election goes. Trust me, I’m a blogger. 😉

    And while I’ve got your attention… were you happy with the alterations to FWA’s unfair dismissal laws late last year? Did it satisfy?

  2. ShowsOn @ 296

    Good to see you again Shows.
    You were right about “Bullshit Bill’s Blog of Batshit Insanity”. If anything, it was worse.

    The good news is that a lot of the batshit insanity is thinking of staying over there. 😆

  3. IMHO. Peter Slipper is being charged with causing the risk of a loss to the Cwlth and it does not matter if there was an actual loss or not. It also doesn’t matter if he genuinely thought what he was doing was right.
    In my untrained mind this must refer to the signed blank Cabcharge dockets. Seems a straightforward case then. If you give out blank signed dockets you are automatically causing the risk of a loss to the Cwlth . End of story. penalty 5 yrs gaol

    The standard of proof is beyond reasonable doubt, which I presume means a jury trial. .

    he could produce evidence to show he and the driver both agreed that three trips were involved but that evidence will be irrelevant, if he signed a blank docket.

  4. [In the event Brough wins Fisher the ALP will never let him off the hook re his role in the Slipper/Ashby affair.]

    Neither will anyone in his Party who wants to put him in his place.

    Too smart by half and a perpetual loser.

  5. Gecko it would be nice to think you are right however the history of politics shows that may not necessarily be the case. In fact we may even elect a person PM this year who destroyed a certain red-head and even managed to get her jailed for a period. People forget or make allowance if they don’t like the person being persecuted. I doubt Slipper has many friends out there in voter-land.

  6. [By political interference, you mean something like George Brandis sending dossiers on Craig Thomson to state Liberal police ministers, asking for them to refer to the police commissioner?

    The AFP appear to have looked at certain evidence based on a complaint, and determined a case for Mr Slipper to answer.]

    The Brandis thing is the most extreme example, and yes I think any prosecution of Thomson is much more tainted than any of Slipper – but you start a political witchhunt and attempt to use the justice system as a weapon in that witchhunt which is clearly the case with both matters and you taint the justice process and system completely – because justice can’t be seen to be done.

    [WWP 293 probably but it is also the reality of how politics operates much of the time.]

    Both sides have been guilty you are right – on Labor side we had Richardson, and others, but are there any left on your side at all that aren’t worse than Richo at his worst?

  7. Phil Vee@303


    IMHO. Peter Slipper is being charged with causing the risk of a loss to the Cwlth and it does not matter if there was an actual loss or not. It also doesn’t matter if he genuinely thought what he was doing was right.
    In my untrained mind this must refer to the signed blank Cabcharge dockets. Seems a straightforward case then. If you give out blank signed dockets you are automatically causing the risk of a loss to the Cwlth . End of story. penalty 5 yrs gaol

    The standard of proof is beyond reasonable doubt, which I presume means a jury trial. .

    he could produce evidence to show he and the driver both agreed that three trips were involved but that evidence will be irrelevant, if he signed a blank docket.

    I agree with you up to a point.
    Would it not be a viable defence if the vouchers had to be ticked off by Slipper or his staff after being submitted by the driver, thereby providing the opportunity to prevent fraudulent use?

    I don’t know what the procedures are, but I would be surprised if there were not such checks somewhere.

    Does anyone here know?

  8. [
    shellbell
    Posted Monday, January 7, 2013 at 4:46 pm | PERMALINK
    ACT justice is so slow and feeble, Wyatt Roy will be close to retirement before the case is heard.]

    Hope he gets Hilary Penfold in the ACT supreme court. The IVF liberal kids will be voting before she writes her judgement.

  9. Shows-on
    [Without abortion there would need to be a massive expansion of the welfare state else you’d simply have a much higher level of child mortality and children living in poverty.]
    There is this theory as well…
    [“The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime” is a controversial paper by John J. Donohue III of Yale University and Steven Levitt of University of Chicago that argues that the legalization of abortion in the 1970s contributed significantly to reductions in crime rates experienced in the 1990s.

    The paper, published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2001, offers evidence that the falling United States crime rates of the 1990s were mostly caused by the legalization of abortion due to the Roe v. Wade court decision of 1973.]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Impact_of_Legalized_Abortion_on_Crime

  10. Only a jury if an indictable (serious) offence which sounds like not the case here as the AFP are proceeding by summons.

  11. Gecko

    [And while I’ve got your attention… were you happy with the alterations to FWA’s unfair dismissal laws late last year? Did it satisfy?]

    I must have missed the announcement. I will check and get back to you.

  12. In my lifetime I have signed shitloads of blank cab dockets… particularly with regular drivers and particularly if I was in a hurry. The question is did the driver overcharge?

  13. [Would it not be a viable defence if the vouchers had to be ticked off by Slipper or his staff after being submitted by the driver, thereby providing the opportunity to prevent fraudulent use?]

    The bill will be paid on receipt.

    The offence happens when the incomplete voucher is signed.

  14. William Bowe@313


    Bemused, I kind of have a rule where I don’t allow this site to be used as a platform for waging wars against other blogs.

    My apologies William.
    No intention of starting a war, but I do see now it had the potential to do that.
    I actually wish the other blog every success as it nicely complements yours. 😛

  15. shellbell – He might get Karen SM.

    If she thinks it’s warranted a good kick in the nutz will probably be her sentence.

  16. CTar1@316


    Would it not be a viable defence if the vouchers had to be ticked off by Slipper or his staff after being submitted by the driver, thereby providing the opportunity to prevent fraudulent use?


    The bill will be paid on receipt.

    The offence happens when the incomplete voucher is signed.

    Even if, hypothetically, there was a further check on the validity of the charge and Slipper relied on that?

    BTW, are you a lawyer?

  17. Steve Lewis has gleefully returned to the fray

    This quote from his story is probably why many are not surprised at Slipper being charged, and are astonished that an elected MP could be so serially stupid.

    [The former Speaker has been forced to repay more than $20,000 during the past decade after wrongly claiming in relation to family travel and other entitlement perks.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/peter-slipper-summonsed-by-australian-federal-police/story-fndo2j43-1226549056082?sv=c88dc3d6ce031dd179312f76755e25c1#.UOpkD8dF72k.and

  18. Actually, the more I think about it, the more I doubt the charges against Slipper will stick.

    He only has to raise reasonable doubt and I can see plenty of scope for that.

    Doesn’t the prosecution also have to prove intent?

  19. Go easy on Bemused, William. They wouldn’t let him play with them over there, and he’s clearly still hurting. He’ll get over it.

    My first and last word on the topic. I’ll take your advice to me to stop it as read.

  20. [The former Speaker has been forced to repay more than $20,000 during the past decade after wrongly claiming in relation to family travel and other entitlement perks.]

    Whilst a Liberal MP I presume.

  21. There is a load of tosh spoken about the numbers of terminations of pregnancy (more correct terminology, BTW) performed in Oz each year.
    I don’t have the figures to hand as I’m still on leave (don’t have access to my usual resources, however, of the numbers commonly quoted in the press, the majority of termination procedures are for situations such as partial miscarriages, foetal abnormality, exposure of mother/foetus to abnormality causing agents and the like. Termination, just as a matter of choice, is not the most common reason.

  22. [The paper, published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2001, offers evidence that the falling United States crime rates of the 1990s were mostly caused by the legalization of abortion due to the Roe v. Wade court decision of 1973.]

    Abortion as substitute eugenics: a controversial view, but probably true.

  23. Aguirre@325


    Go easy on Bemused, William. They wouldn’t let him play with them over there, and he’s clearly still hurting. He’ll get over it.

    My first and last word on the topic. I’ll take your advice to me to stop it as read.

    Aguirre, thanks for the sympathy but it is misplaced.

    Not hurting a bit.

    I made a conscious decision, after getting booted for no valid reason, not to comment there any further.

    I also noted the absence of a lot of other PB folks, at least some of whom made a similar decision without testing the water like I did.

  24. Any one want to guess how many pollies have filled in cab charges or expense claims incorrectly? Talk about a can of worms.

  25. Ashby’s allegation was that Slipper handed over three blank dockets but then Slipper released the dockets after getting them from Finance and “proved” they were “filled out and signed” by him.

    the cab driver then changed them to pay a different cab driver with a different ABN which has nothing to do with Slipper. As long as Slipper signed the dockets on the day then he should be in the clear. If he signed them days later he is in strife.

    I find it interesting that “absolute liability” applies which means he has no excuse or mitigating plea.

  26. Anne summers has a Drum piece on the credlin stiff. In don’t know to do copy and paste on the phone but its an interesting read.

  27. The section under which Slipper is charged carries a potential 5 year jail sentence, so I suspect he can probably get it before a jury.

    Also, the particular provision includes amongst other things the words “the first-mentioned person knows or believes that the loss will occur or that there is a substantial risk of the loss
    occurring”. Pretty hard to prove beyond reasonable doubt I would think if it is about the cab charge vouchers and in light of the acquittal procedures before payment is made. I’m sure Shelbell can advise further.

    If you want to look it up the Act is at http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CD0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.comlaw.gov.au%2FComLaw%2FLegislation%2FActCompilation1.nsf%2F0%2FEA8F2A398EBE535CCA2570B20015CC28%2F%24file%2FCriminalCode1995_WD02.pdf&ei=B2TqUKXhC6WSiQeD-YDYCQ&usg=AFQjCNEOwe8z7eHKe6WVQPcRFQJ6NXtAKg&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.aGc&cad=rja and we are talking about S 135.1(5)

  28. Harry “Snapper” Organs@330


    There is a load of tosh spoken about the numbers of terminations of pregnancy (more correct terminology, BTW) performed in Oz each year.
    I don’t have the figures to hand as I’m still on leave (don’t have access to my usual resources, however, of the numbers commonly quoted in the press, the majority of termination procedures are for situations such as partial miscarriages, foetal abnormality, exposure of mother/foetus to abnormality causing agents and the like. Termination, just as a matter of choice, is not the most common reason.

    Hi HSO, I wanted to get your comment on an article in The Sunday Age http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/lazy-psychiatrists-blamed-for-high-medication-rate-20130105-2ca8z.html

  29. Tricot

    [A reasonable summation I would have though albeit not considering Labor’s ability to always be prone to shooting itself in the foot.]

    Sadly true, but they would need to go a long way backwards to repeat another horrendous campaign like they served up in 2010. The odds must favour a better performance than that. Surely.

  30. HSO

    A very conventional conservative Catholic friend of mine changed her opinion on abortion almost overnight when two women she was close to (a neice and a daughter) had lifesaving proceedures which she realised would have been classed as abortions.

    In one case, the fetus was dead; in the other, it would not have lived outside the womb.

  31. A friend of mine had a couple of Canberra Taxis some years ago. I used to do his accounts for him for a year or two. It was a common place to see Vouchers unfilled but signed in the takings, mostly from members and their staff. The drivers had always filled in the value in the numerical field, but seldom the rest. (One driver had a disconcerting habit of inserting the name of a then prominent brothel in all the destination boxes).
    To obtain a conviction in the Canberra Magistrates Court, I think the prosecution will have to prove that the signing took place before the value figure was inserted. Whilst this is usually the case, it might be more difficult to prove than expected, unlesss the Feds have a tame driver willing to give evidence (and claim an exceptional memory!).

  32. Does anyone know if Slipper ever agreed to be interviewed by the AFP? As I remember this was one the things that was was said to be holding up the investigation. Perhaps this tied the AFP & DPP’s hand to some extent.

  33. The terms of the offence make it clear that dishonesty must be proven.

    I am guessing that s135.1 is the usual charge for social security offences which, in NSW, are generally dealt with by magistrates without juries.

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