Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll ends the year with a three-point blowout in the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead, matching the latest Essential Research result which is a point higher for the Coalition than last week’s.

The final Newspoll for 2012 has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead, up from 51-49 last time, from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down four), 46% for the Coalition (up three) and 11% for the Greens (steady). However, personal ratings are little changed, with Julia Gillard on 36% approval (down one) and 52% disapproval (steady), Tony Abbott on 28% approval (down two) and 59% disapproval (down two), and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-33 to 43-34. Hat tip as always to James J, whom the Poll Bludger wishes a very happy new year.

Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 54-46, which is up a point on last week, from primary votes of 36% for Labor (down one), 48% for the Coalition (up one), 8% for the Greens (down one). The monthly personal approval ratings show a sharp fall for Julia Gillard, down four on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 53%, with Tony Abbott respectively steady on 33% and down two to 56%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 45-32 to 43-34. Also featured are questions on gas and electricity prices, which find 27% blaming the federal government, 16% state government and 45% power companies, and 56% believing power generation and distribution should be operated by government against 24% for private companies. A question on media regulation has 44% believing the Press Council should deal with complaints against 28% for a new government-appointed organisation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,623 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. No specific knowledge = knowledge that I can justifiably claim no specific knowledge of. Or WTTE I knew all about it, but not the actual specifics.

  2. I, for one, especially after hearing his PM interview the other day, do not believe that Anthony Albanese is going to let the opportunity go begging to pin the Liberals and their co-conspirators in Slipper’s office, Ashby and Doane, down like butterflies under specimen glass.

    A Labor man, who has come up from the mean streets of Marrickville in Inner Sydney, the son of a Single Mother, to be a Minister of the Crown and Manager of Government Business, from the Left of the Labor Party, is not going to be one who lets this chance to get the Liberals bang to rights slip through his fingers.

    Remember his line of the year(if you don’t count the purloined one ‘In your guts you know he’s nuts’ 🙂 )?

    “I fight Tories. That’s what I do.”

  3. Fess @ 5477

    Funny thing is that with each letter I tended to alter the way I wrote without noticing until they were sent. With Nicola I was very correct, with Albo I spoke like he was a mate and with the Pm like she was an old friend. Quite possibly Freud would have a field day with how I subconsciously associate differently with each.

  4. Feeney

    Hear Hear

    Centre the point is not WHETHER a surplus can be achieved but whether it is a good idea

    As I see it politically, it is probably a good idea – or at least essential.

    Economically it is probably stupid, counterproductive and exactly what NOT to do in a recession.

    So there is a dilemma – do what is best for the economy or for the government

  5. @Peg/5490

    Normally I don’t agree with you, but I have a number of times pointed out to Labor and Gillard via mail that Newstart allowance is not enough.

    Unfortunately, I don’t think in the current climent will change in advancing an increase of Newstart (should be indexation like DSP).

    Even if you change to Coalition government, they cannot guarantee at all a change to newstart allowance – because they recently said that “we may have to delay some policies due to budget”.

  6. [5487
    C@tmomma
    Posted Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    briefly@5431,
    Excellent fellow, your man. Please say hello to him from me.

    I will do that. Except I don’t know what he will say in return, as I can only converse with his ashes, which are up on the sideboard. He died from Multiple Myeloma on August 28, 2009. 🙁

    Still, it was a good 30 years together. And I have my 2 sons as eternal reminders. :)]

    Oh, C@tmomma. I am so sorry to learn this. I am without words. In my mind he is just as he was when he shook my hand and said goodbye. I am knocked down….and would offer to hug you if that were possible. I am out of breath and out of words. I am so deeply sorry.

  7. daretotread

    WRONG

    It’s more than good for the economy, the markets and international investment for us to be in surplus.

    We are not in recession.

    We have plenty of room to move on monetary policy.

    Don’t believe mainstream media crap!

  8. Calling a spade a spade….a change in tactics for fighting ALP’s asylum seeker policy is called for according to Elizabeth Humphrys who co-runs the blog Left Flank.

    http://overland.org.au/blogs/left-flank/2012/11/children-women-men-the-alps-conscious-cruelty/
    [The Greens and others involved in the campaign to demand a compassionate refugee policy must have a more political approach to this issue. There is no point in simply calling on the government to adopt a humane approach when the current policy framework is deliberately crafted to be inhumane. Indeed, rather than being about ‘saving lives’ it is intentionally crafted to achieve certain political and electoral ends. The ALP has decided that being cruel to refugees will work in its favour electorally, whether or not this is actually the case. They have not determined this path because they are unaware they are being brutal and vicious. We need to call a spade a spade – the government has adopted a sadistic policy for political ends, and this must be the core of what we argue. It is morally reprehensible that they do this, but an appeal for them to behave more ethically will not take the campaign far.]

  9. Power companies and “power surges”
    _________________________
    Recently in our Melb suburban street a nunber of us had the experience of a”power surge”

    A new and rather frightening experience…people lost power and the surge claimed many appliances..we lost an evap- cooler and a dish-washer.while neighbours lost all manner of appliances..although the whole thing was rather random…we lost a bathroon downlight but the other was fine..while a flouro- light in a porch was melted down others nearby were Ok
    One neighbour lost his frig/freezer
    Most found that our insurance polices didn’t cover this”fusion”…I have now taken out a new policy with RACV…but we are all now reliant on the power compoany to pay for our repairs….mine of about $2000…and the tradies demand payment on the spot..we are OK…but some others may have problems finding the money…then we have to wait on the power comoany’s largesse
    In the meantime two other surges have occured in Mornington and in Bentleigh
    In the gold old-pre Kennett days the Tradies used to bill the SEC…but now all that is gone.
    Many people may face real hardship finding the cash for repairs,not to mention the inconvenience of being with cooling or a frig in hot weather as this week
    In the meantime there has been a second surge in Mornington and it’s said 1,500 homes are effected…a huge number when one thinks of the repairs involved
    Do other PBs have experience of this ??

  10. What should be realised is that old media couldn’t give a rats about any possible effect on the economy,as they claim, by bringing the budget to surplus.

    They (OM) will support Abbott’s cost cutting measures to the letter if he were to win the election.

    Don’t let old media set the agenda 😎

  11. zoidlord
    [Unfortunately, I don’t think in the current climent will change in advancing an increase of Newstart]
    Two decades and still waiting. It’s never a ‘good time’ 😉

    Both major parties are happy to demonise “dole bludgers” as it plays well to certain sections of the electorate.

    Do whatever it takes to get the votes of the swinging voters in the marginal electorates, including consigning men, women and children to a life of poverty.

  12. [Isn’t it time for a new ‘Seat of the Week’? Or is William going to fold it into the Nielsen poll?]

    William is wrapping our presents for the festive season and is pressed for time. 😉

  13. And this snippet is also interesting:

    [The weapons were legally purchased by Lanza’s mother, said the official, who was not authorized to release details of the case to the media.

    After killing his mother, investigators believe Lanza took her guns and made his way to the elementary school. There, dressed in black fatigues and a military vest, according to a law enforcement official, Lanza reportedly targeted two classrooms of kindergartners and first-graders.]

    So there you go. The mother, who had three legal weapons — two pistols (Glock and a Sig Sauer) and a Bushmaster .223 caliber assault rifle, presumably to “protect her family” and oppose putative tyranny from the government, was overcome by one of her family, while the government she thought might hurt her never even knew that she was in danger, until it was too late. The weapons with which she meant to resist harm, became vehicles of harm directed at other families, and ultimately, the family member who dispossessed her of them.

    Could one have more compelling proof of the nonsense of having guns to defend yourself in a place with a functional government? It’s hard to imagine.

    Long before I feel nervous enough to consider buying a gun to protect myself from harm in my neighbourhood, or coming from my government, I’m finding either a better neighbourhood or fighting harder for a better country. If it really is the case in the United States that despite their wealth, they are so unsafe that everyone must pay the overheads of bearing arms, then this would seem to be clear proof that the United States is yet another failed state. It claims that national security is its top priority, yet if one is to believe the gun advocates, nobody is safe, including, it seems, from people who are armed and believe this to be so.

    That’s simply too mad to dwell on, but perhaps we should.

  14. Scringler,
    Also if the dogs and cat are not desexed perhaps see if they can be done. Entire pets can end up in not nice places if they are capable of breeding. Poor Dave, poor furries. 🙁

  15. Those bastards (old media), they want to tell you, look it’s okay, people will understand that you couldn’t deliver the surplus in tough times.

    Then, in late MAY… BROKEN PROMISE they scream, Labor can’t deliver surplus, Labor no economic credibility.

    It’s a con, wake up, you blokes cannot be serious.

    Besides, the surplus is do-able and should still be the goal!

  16. @peg/5529

    Don’t go into that argument, Greens is old party.

    They are at least 20 years old (in Australia), in USA Greens party started in 2001 (11 years old).

    Greens Party in UK had first meeting in 1985 (27 years old).

    Don’t give us shit about two major parties are being “old”.

  17. [Centre
    Posted Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 11:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Those bastards (old media), they want to tell you, look it’s okay, people will understand that you couldn’t deliver the surplus in tough times.

    Then, in late MAY… BROKEN PROMISE they scream, Labor can’t deliver surplus, Labor no economic credibility.

    It’s a con, wake up, you blokes cannot be serious.

    Besides, the surplus is do-able and should still be the goal!]

    The ALP have only delivered 4 surplus budgets in the last half century….no-one will be surprised if they do not deliver one next year.

  18. “No specific knowledge” = I knew something was going on in that space but kept away from the details and hopefully can claim plausible deniability.

  19. 5532

    Most murder victims new their killer.

    I read somewhere that US states household gun ownership rates and homicide rates are strongly correlated and that people with guns in their houses are more likely (I think it was 2.5 times) to be a homicide victim.

  20. Mod Lib – what level of unemployment is acceptable in an effort to achieve a surplus. What are the Coalition’s plans to stimulate China’s economy or otherwise increase commodity prices?

  21. [ I bet he’s glad you visited him, too.]

    Thanks, all. Yes, his sister said Frank was proud after the visit. He was pretty much alone.

    +++

    This is good night, Bludgers. Thank you.

  22. [Steve777
    Posted Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 11:29 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib – what level of unemployment is acceptable in an effort to achieve a surplus. What are the Coalition’s plans to stimulate China’s economy or otherwise increase commodity prices?]

    I am not arguing that you always need to be in surplus, just that it would be nice if the ALP got closer at little more often than 4 out of 50+

  23. zoidlord
    [Greens is old party.]
    😆 When I started posting on PB around four years ago, I spent the first two years patiently explaining that the Greens were a political party and that the parliamentary party needed to be distinguished from Greens supporters by being referred to as the Greens Party.

    How it has changed 😆

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