Seat of the week: Oxley

Despite unfavourable redistributions and the statewide swing of 2010, Bill Hayden’s old seat has returned to safe Labor form since the famous interruption of Pauline Hanson.

Still famous 15 years later as the former electorate of Pauline Hanson, the modern seat of Oxley was created around the satellite city of Ipswich west of Brisbane in 1949 (a seat bearing the name earlier existed in southern Brisbane, before being renamed Griffith in 1934). Redistributions in 2004, 2007 and 2010 sent the electorate’s remaining share of Ipswich to Blair, pushing Oxley towards Brisbane with the addition of Middle Park and Jindalee in the north and Algester to the east. The changes before the 2010 election garnished the margin from 14.1% to 11.3%, and the punishing statewide swing against Labor that followed pared it back to 5.6%.

Oxley was was held for the Liberals on fairly comfortable margins for a decade after its creation by Donald Cameron, who served as Health Minister in the Menzies government. However, a 9.4% swing in the near-miss election of 1961 portended a long-term shift, delivering the seat to Labor’s Bill Hayden. Hayden did extraordinarily well to lift his margin to 19.1% by 1969, but Queensland’s reaction against the Whitlam government was enough to cut it back to 3.8% in 1975. By the time Hayden resigned to become Governor-General in 1988, the seat was safe enough for Labor that Les Scott was able to survive a sharp swing at the resulting by-election with a 4.0% margin.

After retaining a margin of 12.6% at the 1993 election, few suspected that Scott would be in serious danger despite the hostile environment Labor faced in 1996. However, trouble came in the form of Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, whose campaign remarks about Aboriginal welfare saw her disendorsed by a party sensitive about its leader’s complicated history on racial issues. The voters by contrast rewarded her with an astonishing 48.6% of the primary vote, resulting in a 4.7% win after preferences. Unfortunately for Hanson, Oxley was substantially redrawn with the 1998 redistribution, losing its rural areas beyond Ipswich to newly created Blair along with parts of Ipswich itself, while absorbing the very safe Labor urban area of Inala. Rightly or wrongly, Hanson decided the new seat offered her the better prospects and Labor’s Bernie Ripoll had no trouble regaining Oxley at the 1998 election.

A member of the Australian Workers Union/Labor Forum faction, Ripoll served as a parliamentary secretary in opposition after the 2004 election, but was passed over when Labor came to office in 2007. His preselected Liberal National Party opponent for the coming election is Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

977 comments on “Seat of the week: Oxley”

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  1. mari@900


    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 8:16 pm | PERMALINK
    lol

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Election betting: Coalition into $1.31: Labor out to $3.35…


    Hope that not based on insider knowledge of Newspoll?? but even if it is still think they will do their money

    Simon Jackman’s blog at http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/ has weekly tracking of betting prices, which shows that most of the betting moves the Coalition’s way came about five days ago. Hence nothing to do with Newspoll.

  2. The exchange of university students between Australia and other countries, particularly in Asia, is already well established.

    In fact, there are exchange programs between countries across the region.

    I know from my daughter’s experience that an exchange (for one year in her case) is not a simple matter and needs to be organised carefully. It is not just a case of shipping students off to a foreign university but of considering course credits for study overseas, compatibility of semester timing, dealing with course fees or HELP debt, proper liaison between the universities involved, and so on.

    Studying overseas is a rewarding experience but the sort of mass transfer of students overseas for a year, as envisaged by the Opposition, will result in innumerable problems unless great care is taken to give each student a suitable placement and to consider their individual circumstances.

  3. Dee know what you mean about not knowing grandparents, I never met my paternal ones as they were in UK, my maternal G/father died when I was 2 & my maternal g/mother wasn’t interested in grandkids. My mother and father were wonderful to my kids, who adored them in return

  4. [Scringler
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 8:20 pm | PERMALINK
    mari,

    Been a bit low lately. Some health problems, but not, I hope, serious. Some more tests to do. Also, I thought it was a good idea not to inflict my minor problems on others. That’s why I haven’t posted.

    Also, I’m disgusted at the state of politics. I try to switch off, but can’t. I reckon I’m now an official political tragic.]

    You just take care of yourself and keep posting here, we need you.
    Also best wishes to GECKO and OH

  5. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:06 pm | Permalink

    @mari/900

    This shows bookies have more money then sense.]

    Made a lot of money betting against Howard.

  6. Bemused

    My understanding (?) of this ‘fraud’ buiness is this: it is quite OK, perfectly legal etc, to establish a fund for the purpose of union elections.

    The suggestion by the PM’s detractors is that the money was used by Wilson (with whom she was living) to purchase a house, and that she knew, at the time of the purchase, that the money came from the union elections fund.

    That is my simple way of putting what my understanding of it is.

    However, having seen JG at THAT press conference address all these issues, I am satisfied that she was being honest and forthcoming on all matters.

    I just wish she hadn’t used the term “slush fund” as it has all sorts of nasty connotations.

  7. citizen:

    The interesting thing about the university swap announcement is that it wasn’t made by the shadow education minister who has been virtually invisible for the last few weeks.

    Where is Pyne and why does he appear to be hiding?

  8. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:06 pm | PERMALINK
    @mari/900

    This shows bookies have more money then sense.

    904
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:08 pm | PERMALINK
    mari@900

    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 8:16 pm | PERMALINK
    lol
    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Election betting: Coalition into $1.31: Labor out to $3.35…

    Hope that not based on insider knowledge of Newspoll?? but even if it is still think they will do their money

    Simon Jackman’s blog at http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/ has weekly tracking of betting prices, which shows that most of the betting moves the Coalition’s way came about five days ago. Hence nothing to do with Newspoll.]

    Thank you you two, re 5 days ago when it really moved ie start of the big push by MSM they have a lot to answer for.

    BTW have been on new blog and got very lonely over there

  9. @Leroy/916

    Yeah but It is often linked with Federal issues as well.

    Also – William doesn’t seem to mind nor he does promote those threads.

  10. Dee

    Usually around this time, we get a visit from James J who gives the Newspoll figures. I reckon bludgers are holding their breath!!

  11. BK I think many of us have steered clear people like Bishop through our working life. She oozes falseness but I see that young Jess Wright has written a complimentary article today.

    If the betting market blew out for Labor 5 days ago that would be after
    jonathon Holmes told the ABC to get on to Slatergate.

    The media has been wall to wall Abbott on AS well even tho Labor has had policy stuff out.

  12. [Dee
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:38 pm | PERMALINK
    Sprocket
    Do you know if JB was Lightfoot’s partner at the time?]

    Don’t know but was Creighton-Brown one of her boyfriends or mentor?? as well

  13. http://www.perthnow.com.au/entertainment/perth-confidential/power-and-the-fashion/story-e6frg30u-1111114162157

    This article from 2007 gives some background on JulieBs love life, including her current “boyfriend” Peter Nattrass.

    Ross Lightfoot was her intro to the Liberal Party, and he was a real creep. Probably calling aborigines the lowest on the color spectrum was his signature contribution to public discourse, but telling the Green Senators who protested to Bush Senior, to “fuck off and die” competed.
    Se the bottom of
    http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2003/s973858.htm

  14. [jeffemu
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:48 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari, but what house did she live in]
    Who ever’s she though would be the most help to her?

  15. Dee

    I cant influence the outcome of the polls. A bad poll for the govt will make fhe coalition and fhe msm unbearable this week

  16. feeney@912


    Bemused

    My understanding (?) of this ‘fraud’ buiness is this: it is quite OK, perfectly legal etc, to establish a fund for the purpose of union elections.

    The suggestion by the PM’s detractors is that the money was used by Wilson (with whom she was living) to purchase a house, and that she knew, at the time of the purchase, that the money came from the union elections fund.

    That is my simple way of putting what my understanding of it is.

    However, having seen JG at THAT press conference address all these issues, I am satisfied that she was being honest and forthcoming on all matters.

    I just wish she hadn’t used the term “slush fund” as it has all sorts of nasty connotations.

    Agree.
    It is not the first time she has been rather loose in her terminology and got herself into more trouble than she should have.

    But hey, that isn’t a ‘fraud’ or anything else illegal or unlawful.

  17. Watching a fascinating programme on the BBC. Talking economics including black and white footage of Keynes explaining his theory.

    Its called Masters of Money and comes right up until the present day.

  18. [There’s no inside knowledge in politics betting. They just follow the news & polls like everyone else.]

    Leroy, why do you say that so confidently as if it is a fact or as if you know?

    You don’t know!

    That is your opinion which in my opinion it is obvious you have very little insight into the art.

    I’ve already commented on my analysis of the betting move in an earlier post.

  19. [This shows bookies have more money than sense.]

    No actually bookies have a lot of money and a lot of sense.

    They just want to tempt chickens into having a go which they don’t 😉

  20. Dee
    I thought Lightfoot was Brownie’s dodgy boyfriend.

    He was head of NRMA Andreas always in media wining and dining Bronnie. As far as I remember he was done for doing something dodgy and Bronnie dropped him like a hot cake.

  21. bemused @ 928

    Yes, I agree with what you say. The whole thing is becoming so confused, deliberately I think by the MSM etc, in order to create a stench or smell around the PM.

    If the suggestion is that JG helped with the legal documents, knowing that their purpose was to use funds for Wilson to purchase this bloody house, then there are matters to be addressed. She has already denied this anyway.

    I really don’t know what to think anymore, mainly because there has been no allegation made against JG.

  22. Dee sorry for mess in post ‘re Lightfoot. Can’t blame tablet. I didn’t check before posting. Hope u got the gist omit.

    Bronnie Bishop chose a dodgy boyfriend unwisely 🙂

  23. This has been an inside job that has been very well orchestrated by the MSM specifically for the last sitting week of parliament to save Abbott’s job as leader of the Liberals.

    They started with a pretend to be loyal Turnbull then full on S%G smear campaign.

    That is all!

  24. State Liberals are talking up winning Balcatta on the back of the retirement of the sitting ALP member.

    Labor has held the seat since 1908 according to reports.

    Hubris much?

  25. BH
    [In 2003, Lightfoot was involved in an altercation on the floor of the Senate during a visit by United States President George W. Bush. Australian Greens Senators Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle were attempting to hand Bush a letter from the wife of Mamdouh Habib, an Australian citizen who at the time was being held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, following his apprehension by United States forces in either (this is disputed) Afghanistan or Pakistan. Lightfoot physically blocked the path of the Senators, elbowing Brown and reportedly telling Nettle to “Fuck off and die”.]
    [On 17 March 2005, News Limited newspapers reported that Lightfoot, while on a parliamentary tour to Iraq, smuggled US$20,000 into the country on behalf of Woodside Petroleum as a donation for the Kurdish government, having been issued with a pistol for personal security. The newspapers published photographs of Lightfoot appearing with Kurdish militants wielding an AK-47. Lightfoot strenuously denied the allegations and threatened legal action against the newspapers carrying the story. Lightfoot denied handling the money personally, and claiming that he merely witnessed the money changing hands. After speaking to John Howard, Lightfoot issued a statement in which he claimed that he felt “uncomfortable” having the gun with him and did not carry it personally. The newspapers in turn refused to retract the reports and accused Lightfoot of contradicting himself.]

    Confessions
    [I don’t think it’s helpful to imagine JBishop as partner to sundry Liberal MPs.

    Surely we’re better than Liberals.]
    You are a better person than me.

  26. Finns

    The chooks are the Bludgers who criticise the bookies for not knowing what they’re doing but are too chicken to have a bet 😆

  27. Seems Ms Bishop has a good memory:
    [The young lawyer in the Liberty print dress was sent straight to the Supreme Court, where one of the firm’s partners was defending a man accused of murder. Nearly three decades later, Bishop still recalls every detail of that first assignment as a 22-year-old.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/true-blue-to-her-boots/2007/09/06/1188783415598.html

    Remember what you said about the Wittenoom workers, Julie?

  28. mari@915


    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:06 pm | PERMALINK
    @mari/900

    BTW have been on new blog and got very lonely over there

    That is okay, we welcome back lost sheep who are tempted by greener pastures that turn out to be plastic turf. 😀

  29. I am very uncomfortable with this chatter about JBishop’s alleged past relationships.

    Who cares who she married/dated/whatevered when there is a demonstrable track record of her abject incompetence in shadow cabinet just begging to be trawled over.

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