Seat of the week: Oxley

Despite unfavourable redistributions and the statewide swing of 2010, Bill Hayden’s old seat has returned to safe Labor form since the famous interruption of Pauline Hanson.

Still famous 15 years later as the former electorate of Pauline Hanson, the modern seat of Oxley was created around the satellite city of Ipswich west of Brisbane in 1949 (a seat bearing the name earlier existed in southern Brisbane, before being renamed Griffith in 1934). Redistributions in 2004, 2007 and 2010 sent the electorate’s remaining share of Ipswich to Blair, pushing Oxley towards Brisbane with the addition of Middle Park and Jindalee in the north and Algester to the east. The changes before the 2010 election garnished the margin from 14.1% to 11.3%, and the punishing statewide swing against Labor that followed pared it back to 5.6%.

Oxley was was held for the Liberals on fairly comfortable margins for a decade after its creation by Donald Cameron, who served as Health Minister in the Menzies government. However, a 9.4% swing in the near-miss election of 1961 portended a long-term shift, delivering the seat to Labor’s Bill Hayden. Hayden did extraordinarily well to lift his margin to 19.1% by 1969, but Queensland’s reaction against the Whitlam government was enough to cut it back to 3.8% in 1975. By the time Hayden resigned to become Governor-General in 1988, the seat was safe enough for Labor that Les Scott was able to survive a sharp swing at the resulting by-election with a 4.0% margin.

After retaining a margin of 12.6% at the 1993 election, few suspected that Scott would be in serious danger despite the hostile environment Labor faced in 1996. However, trouble came in the form of Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, whose campaign remarks about Aboriginal welfare saw her disendorsed by a party sensitive about its leader’s complicated history on racial issues. The voters by contrast rewarded her with an astonishing 48.6% of the primary vote, resulting in a 4.7% win after preferences. Unfortunately for Hanson, Oxley was substantially redrawn with the 1998 redistribution, losing its rural areas beyond Ipswich to newly created Blair along with parts of Ipswich itself, while absorbing the very safe Labor urban area of Inala. Rightly or wrongly, Hanson decided the new seat offered her the better prospects and Labor’s Bernie Ripoll had no trouble regaining Oxley at the 1998 election.

A member of the Australian Workers Union/Labor Forum faction, Ripoll served as a parliamentary secretary in opposition after the 2004 election, but was passed over when Labor came to office in 2007. His preselected Liberal National Party opponent for the coming election is Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

977 comments on “Seat of the week: Oxley”

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  1. Just wondering here…

    With Queensland Labor only having such a small number of seats after the last election wipeout I wonder if they might consider doing a Can’t Do type of thing, and groom an unelected leader to lead them into the next election.

    I have nothing against anastasia but she is not a well known leader and just comes across as a stop gap leader. The leader you have when you dont have a leader.

    I am positive that it is not Labor causing the rebound but the Idiot CantDo and his mob of fools that are shooting themselves in the foot at every available opportunity.

  2. There’s still the promise of more to come from Clive Palmer.
    He alluded to something coming Newman’s way and he would not be responsible for it.

    Mmmmm…and who could ever forget Clive saying he was fearful when he was aggressively confronted by TA.
    Wonder if he’ll feel compelled to dump on TA??

  3. confessions@846


    but the QLD wipeout scenario for the federal numbers is waning.


    IMO the Qld wipeout scenarios for the federal numbers were only ever used to promote Ruddstoration and leadershit.

    Given federal elections have compulsory preferential voting (unlike Qld state elections), I don’t think it was ever feasible that the Qld state poll results would be replicated federally.

    Seeing “Rudd People” again?
    The poll numbers indicated wipeout for a while and seem to have only been turned around by the stirling efforts of Can D’oh.

  4. Prediction time: The outcome of this week’s effort in the Reps from the Member for Attempting to Deny Dying Asbestos Victims Their Rights (aka the member for Curtin) will make Imran (Worst Test Bowling Figures Ever) Tahrir feel like he had a good match.

  5. Julie Bishop knows she will never be LOTO, let alone PM, so she is determined to tear down the first female PM. #WhatJealousyMent

  6. Gecko,

    My best wishes to your OH, and to you 🙂

    C@tmomma,

    I am certain that you will out-Florence Miss Nightingale 😛

    but seriously, I hope (and am sure) that all will be well.

  7. MM:

    I’m not so sure. JBishop has scandalised herself plenty of times in the last 5 years through incompetence (plagiarism in PvO’s book) to outright stupidity, earning her the moniker of worst shadow foreign affairs minister ever by Greg Sheriden.

    She is, as others have said over the years, the ultimate cockroach: indestructible.

  9. Bemused
    [I don’t believe that.
    The relationship certainly changes, but it goes on. I recall my kids as teenagers always being keen to visit their grandparents.]

    Depends on how the relationship develops I guess.
    I would hope they would continue to look forward to visiting regularly.

  10. Wow, that’s one nasty Reachtel for Newman. That LNP primary vote is at 2009 election levels (the LNP got 41.8% there).

    And Labor only needs about 6% back in the Primary Vote to be competitive too.

  11. Dee@859


    Bemused

    I don’t believe that.
    The relationship certainly changes, but it goes on. I recall my kids as teenagers always being keen to visit their grandparents.


    Depends on how the relationship develops I guess.
    I would hope they would continue to look forward to visiting regularly.

    I am good mates with my 13yo grand-daughter and I take her on outings to places like the Science Works Museum, Brunswick Music Festival and even took her along to a Getup Climate Change rally.

    I have observed teenage nieces going through a ‘difficult’ time in their mid-teens, but no signs of that yet.

  13. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
    But keep thinking won’t be long and they will not want to come. The eldest could be starting to be like that at 16, as he now has a girlfriend

    I never outgrew visiting my grandparents. By the time we were too old for the activities and games, I was into history and used to pick their brains about ‘the old days’. When nan started showing signs of dementia talking about the old days became her preferred topic of conversation anyway, so I was happy.]
    Thanks Confessions for that, he did send me a photo of himself and girlfriend. No 2 grandson also 16(cousins) still loves to come up and visit me, so I am happy and both still ask me for advice which is wonderful, not sure if they take my advice though

  14. [Ryan Moore ‏@mooreryan3
    On a uniform swing based on #ReachTEL, Labor would gain Newman’s seat of Ashgrove with a 2PP vote of 53.4% #qldpol #auspol ]

    If an election had been held yesterday that is.

  16. mari:

    I’m one of 6 grandchildren, and we were all the same. My cousins and brother would regularly visit nan when she was still at home, if only just to drop in after work for a cuppa, something home-baked (nan ALWAYS had something home baked), and a yarn.

    When she moved into the nursing home it was a bit difficult, with regulated visiting times and opening hours meaning you couldn’t just drop in when you felt like it.

  18. The saner people at the ABC must be reflecting on how Murdoch News has led the ABC up s**t creek and left them without the proverbial paddle and probably the boat as well.

    News coerced the ABC into being the bunnies to interview Blewitt and the ex S&G fellow living in the US. They seem to have neglected to tell them to interview Wilson who had a contrary story to tell.

    Or maybe the ABC found it easy to interview two long term residents of SE Asia and the US but difficult to interview Wilson who lives in NSW.

    Unfortunately, s**t creek now seems to have a few people without paddles, including Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott.

  19. AGW is going to bring all sorts of unexpected benefits.

    The 2007 growing season was the first time that Greenlanders were able to grow broccoli.

  20. Fess # 857, not sure we are disagreeing there? The Monty Python Black Knight doesnt need to realise he’s had a bad day for the rest of us to be able to see it …

  22. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

    PMJG should bring a copy of her birth certificate to parliament, and table it for the benefit of the coalition.

    😆

    Ms Bishop in particular!]

    Short form of cause, then they can spend the rest of the term demending the long form.

  24. MM:

    Point taken.:)

    It is worth noting however that JBishop has shown a remarkable capacity for remaining as Deputy LOTO despite the mis-steps and obvious ability flaws.

    I reckon if Abbott were to lose the confidence of his partyroom, she’d nominate for the leadership.

  25. mari,

    Been a bit low lately. Some health problems, but not, I hope, serious. Some more tests to do. Also, I thought it was a good idea not to inflict my minor problems on others. That’s why I haven’t posted.

    Also, I’m disgusted at the state of politics. I try to switch off, but can’t. I reckon I’m now an official political tragic.

    +++

    victoria,

    Up past Bendigo, it is bluddy hot. I’d say topping +40c.

    In this extreme heat, plants give up the ghost. Which poses a problem: this area is on bore water which is, to my understanding, quite salty.

    Plants don’t like that and tend to die.

    Normally, the plants whinge, but when the rains come they flourish.

    But the Cox Orange Pippan apple is full of fruit. (Thinks: Apple pie, short-crust pastry, good cream. Cinnamon.)

    The pomegranates are doing nicely. Pomegranate ice-cream might be the go …

    The good peach tree has failed to deliver this year. However, the nectarine has produced its usual good crop.

    Lots of work to do, but should be pretty much self sufficient
    in a year or two.

    Probably need a couple of chooks.

  29. It’s back to Armageddon here this week, as a cold front passes through here – low pressure of around 996-992 hpa, so VERY strong winds.

    I’m hoping this will be the last cold front for the year. I’m over the gale force winds. It’s time for some calm. And I’m hoping our federal politics delivers calm after the final sitting week. Am over the hysteria on that front as well.

  33. Phil coorey wrote this in August.

    [RALPH BLEWITT, the former union official who wants to give evidence about the alleged rorting involving Julia Gillard’s former boyfriend, fled Indonesia in 2009 to avoid arrest after allegedly selling Australian expatriates land he did not own.
    One couple, Deborah and Paul Storck, told the Herald from Lombok yesterday that Mr Blewitt still owed them $190,000 for land they thought they had purchased on Gili Gede, Lombok.
    ”He’s not a credible fellow,” Mrs Storck said. ”Be wary of anything he says. He still owes us a lot of money. Who does he think he is to bring up stuff from 17 years ago?”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/union-official-in-pm-row-fled-indonesia-20120822-24muy.html

  34. sprocket_@850


    Poliquant projecting a 25 seat loss for LNP in Qld PArliament on todays Reachtel poll.

    That should sharpen the focus of the backbench!

    Campbell has a backbench? I thought they were all in the front line at the trough.

  35. Coalition into $1.31 and Labor out to $3.35?

    I’d be more likley to write that down to the week long attacks on the PM.

    Bookmakers respect propaganda 😎

    Still a poll showing Labor hitting the lead would change the dynamics of attack completely.

    STFU :mrgreen:

  36. Confessions
    You were lucky indeed and I’m quite envious.
    My father’s parents lived in Cyprus so I couldn’t forge a relationship with them.
    Even after the invasion left them homeless refugees they refused to come to Australia.
    My mother’s parents split up when she was quite young.
    Met her mother once!
    As for her father! We had to make an appointment to see him.

  37. [Turn Left ‏@turnleft2013

    MT @KanaryKoalmine Abbott doesn’t recall reading KLOPPERS doc 6hrs prior~yet expects JG to recall doc she WOULDN’T have seen 17 yrs ago ]

  39. [The opposition spokeswoman for foreign affairs, Julie Bishop, has held high-level talks with her counterparts in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Singapore, including the Indonesian Foreign Minister, Marty Natalegawa, to develop the policy.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-plans-to-send-uni-students-for-a-years-study-in-asia-20121124-2a00m.html#ixzz2DE3drFGU%5D

    Wouldn’t her counterparts be opposition spokesthingies?

  41. This little black duck@889


    The opposition spokeswoman for foreign affairs, Julie Bishop, has held high-level talks with her counterparts in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Singapore, including the Indonesian Foreign Minister, Marty Natalegawa, to develop the policy.


    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-plans-to-send-uni-students-for-a-years-study-in-asia-20121124-2a00m.html#ixzz2DE3drFGU

    More saturation OM cheer leading for the libs.

    FFS blind Freddy.

  42. Extracts from an article in Huffington Post:

    [GOP Doesn’t Have A Mitt Romney Problem, It Has A Fox News Problem

    And it’s not just a Fox News problem. Republicans have an even more expansive right-wing media problem (television, radio, Internet, etc.), which now doubles as the face and voice of the GOP and which celebrates the kind of toxic “47 percent” and “gifts” rhetoric that’s being condemned within the party. The far-right press is convinced Obama won re-election by “offering” voters a “check” in exchange for their support.

    For now, it’s easy to blame Romney. That’s what losing parties often do after an election, they pile-on the vanquished candidate. The part that would take some guts and fortitude would be calling out the right-wing media that are generating the type of hate rhetoric that Romney embraced and routinely used during the campaign.

    Republicans won’t because they’re intimidated by the right-wing media’s power. That’s why New Jersey Governor Chris Christie quickly got on the phone with Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch after Murdoch tweeted that Christie, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy and his bipartisan appearances with Obama, needed to re-endorse Romney or “take the blame” for the president’s re-election.

    Murdoch: Jump! Republicans: How high?]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-boehlert/gop-doesnt-have-a-mitt-ro_b_2165325.html?utm_hp_ref=media

  45. @ducky/889

    Silly thing is about this stupid policy is that at university level you can elect in second year (I think) to goto university overseas, and your still supported by Centerlink.

    I think the Coalition’s plan is trying to out do what Gillard recently “Asian Century White Paper”.

  48. Dee:

    That is sad. Nan died a year or so ago, pop died 20 years ago. But I cherish the memories I have of them.

    Pop worked on the Snowy Mountains Hydro scheme, where he worked with new migrants and cultivated his love of cooking and food. He worked with Greeks, Italians, Asians, and became the first person in his neighbourhood to embrace Chinese cooking (REAL Chinese cooking), by buying a steam boat and replacing the traditional Sunday roast with a Sunday steam boat. Much to the horror of their neighbours, who thought the whole thing scandalous.

    You’d have loved pop. A union man through and through, and a lifelong Labor voter. But he had genuine compassion and tolerance that you just don’t see today without all the populist grandstanding. Nan OTOH was a whole other story!

  50. [
    Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 8:16 pm | PERMALINK
    lol

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk

    Election betting: Coalition into $1.31: Labor out to $3.35…]

    Hope that not based on insider knowledge of Newspoll?? but even if it is still think they will do their money

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