Seat of the week: Oxley

Despite unfavourable redistributions and the statewide swing of 2010, Bill Hayden’s old seat has returned to safe Labor form since the famous interruption of Pauline Hanson.

Still famous 15 years later as the former electorate of Pauline Hanson, the modern seat of Oxley was created around the satellite city of Ipswich west of Brisbane in 1949 (a seat bearing the name earlier existed in southern Brisbane, before being renamed Griffith in 1934). Redistributions in 2004, 2007 and 2010 sent the electorate’s remaining share of Ipswich to Blair, pushing Oxley towards Brisbane with the addition of Middle Park and Jindalee in the north and Algester to the east. The changes before the 2010 election garnished the margin from 14.1% to 11.3%, and the punishing statewide swing against Labor that followed pared it back to 5.6%.

Oxley was was held for the Liberals on fairly comfortable margins for a decade after its creation by Donald Cameron, who served as Health Minister in the Menzies government. However, a 9.4% swing in the near-miss election of 1961 portended a long-term shift, delivering the seat to Labor’s Bill Hayden. Hayden did extraordinarily well to lift his margin to 19.1% by 1969, but Queensland’s reaction against the Whitlam government was enough to cut it back to 3.8% in 1975. By the time Hayden resigned to become Governor-General in 1988, the seat was safe enough for Labor that Les Scott was able to survive a sharp swing at the resulting by-election with a 4.0% margin.

After retaining a margin of 12.6% at the 1993 election, few suspected that Scott would be in serious danger despite the hostile environment Labor faced in 1996. However, trouble came in the form of Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, whose campaign remarks about Aboriginal welfare saw her disendorsed by a party sensitive about its leader’s complicated history on racial issues. The voters by contrast rewarded her with an astonishing 48.6% of the primary vote, resulting in a 4.7% win after preferences. Unfortunately for Hanson, Oxley was substantially redrawn with the 1998 redistribution, losing its rural areas beyond Ipswich to newly created Blair along with parts of Ipswich itself, while absorbing the very safe Labor urban area of Inala. Rightly or wrongly, Hanson decided the new seat offered her the better prospects and Labor’s Bernie Ripoll had no trouble regaining Oxley at the 1998 election.

A member of the Australian Workers Union/Labor Forum faction, Ripoll served as a parliamentary secretary in opposition after the 2004 election, but was passed over when Labor came to office in 2007. His preselected Liberal National Party opponent for the coming election is Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

977 comments on “Seat of the week: Oxley”

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  4. Bushfire Bill @ 591

    [That we take in four times the number we send away, is what makes the Malaysian Solution such a potentially successful one.]

    We can also hope that over time the Malaysians will discover that the 800 refugees who settle there will be an asset and not a drain on their country. Once that happens we can see Malaysia and other countries put a greater emphasis on getting asylum seekers out of camps and into society.

  5. Centre,

    The front pages were posted either here or on Twitter last night.

    I think I called it the News Limited Unconditional Surrender front pages.

  6. [The number of asylum seekers is only into 5 figures in the old, rich EU.]

    “Old” and “rich” are as nothing compared to population density!

    The UK crams c60million in a total area which just about fits in coastal sub-tropical Qld – or more than X10 our density. Nor, apart from a quite small % of rich people during the Major-Blair era, does that population enjoy anything like Australia’s perCapita wealth and/or income – hasn’t really done so since WW I.

    Population density statistics”>show Australia as the 11th least densely populated of 242 nations – below most nations with huge tracts of desert/ permafrost (hence limited productive land).

    Nor, in the International context, and considering the recipient state’s population density, does Oz’s 40,320 AS for the period 2007-2011 “stack up well” beside France’s 206,890, Germany’s 155,970, UK’s 138,350, or tiny Belgium’s 88,300 – all with a hellava lot smaller % arable land than Oz!

    Probably the best illustrated & easiest to read assessment of the refugee/ AS problem is UNHCR 2011 refugee statistics: full data Check out the Refugee per 1,000 Population stats.

  9. I’m with you CM.

    No relationship at all between “class” and “Bogun”.

    Kath and Kim are the epitome.

    In the West we have a variant called “Cashed Up” Boguns.

    One young FIFo bloke over here has spent a couple of hundred grand on boats, bikes and utes.

    Let me quick add, having earned the dough he can spend it any which way he pleases.

    But, one day this same guy will whinge because he can’t get a housing loan, or it is too high, or he has so destroyed his health that there is not enough health care dollars to meet his later needs.

    I don’t care what these people do or spend their lives but please, don’t insult the genuine “working class” which has nothing to do with this mob.

  11. Vic,
    Parliament will be the subject of microscopic examination – by the beltway. Every grimace,every snide word captured. The punters,of course, will be looking elsewhere. If tomorrows Newspoll is reasonable for the Govt, it may force a change in tactics by the Libs and see the back off on the smear. If Newspoll is a shocker,Parlt will end in screaming filth – and more commentary on Saint Kevin.

  12. al palster

    No doubt, The whole smear campaign was to stop the trend to Labor. I am of the view that it has probably worked. If so, parliament will end as you say. Sad really.
    On the other hand, the govt have an ace up their sleeve no matter the polls! That is what I am wishing for anyhow!!!

  15. [I think I called it the News Limited Unconditional Surrender front pages.]

    GG, methinks you got it there. i see the white flag is flying except Abbott of course, he sees red in the white flag

  19. It doesn’t matter if the S&G “affair” comes to nought. For Mordor Press it is still mission accomplished.Just over a week ago the talk was of the impending political “killing season” and Tones bad polls and gaffes were featuring prominently. A few sweaty palms no doubt for Tones and his backers. A week of shouting about S&G and Bob’s your uncle. Problem solved.

    [Murdoch let it be known within News after dining with Abbott late last year that he liked the Liberal leader and what he represented]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/mogul-in-the-corner-20110521-1exun.html#ixzz2DCNQZrPd

  20. The problem I had was an outbreak of Gonorrhoea among the lady passengers of E deck
    Apparently one of the Indonesian stokers had misunderstood his job title.

  21. Finns

    There was this unique game of dice that I had a winning streak on over a couple of nights.

    Of course they just happened to roll the right way as the probabilities will always work against you in the end.

    As for your question; not just the casino 😈

  22. [“Bogans” has nothing to do with class, it’s attitude that defines a bogan. In fact, it’s the middle class bogans who are the problem. They are the ones who receive middle class welfare, yet complain about how their hard-dodged taxes are being wasted on “dole bludgers”. They are the ones who live in a white as snow, fenced-off, suburb and rarely ever see a refugee – yet complain about us being “overrun”. They’re the ones watching ACA/TT and shaking their heads, they’re the ones who think the government is there to wipe their arses and they’re the ones who give Abbott et al their support base.

    I don’t care if they’re essential to gain government, I’ll be in the grave before I concede they are a sub-culture that deserves any form of respect.]

    Bullseye!

    While Chavs in the United Kingdom are very much an economic class as much as a social one, bogans in Australia are a very different beast, as Carey correctly points out, it has nothing to do with money.

    One only has to look at the Hewitt couple who are the famous example of “cashed up” bogans.

    I too will be in my cold cold grave before I pander this this group.

  23. [It doesn’t matter if the S&G “affair” comes to nought.]
    It certainly does. It means they’ve fired a gun off too early and will not return if there is nought to it. At the moent it MAY affect a poll or two, not an election which it could have done if it emerged at the wrong time.

  25. [One only has to look at the Hewitt couple who are the famous example of “cashed up” bogans.]

    Or Gina Rinehart, the ultimate cashed up bogan.

  27. May I suggest a quick poll here for the remaining days of the televised QT in the House.

    I think the highlight for me will be watching the Poodle pounce to his feet and scream for a POO everytime some Minister or the PM start with the counter attack to the Noalitions Smear Questions.

    There for I think it would be fun to call for estimated POOs by Poodle Pyne.

    I’ll start with – what do we have four days…… so I will go with 22. Two days at 5 and two at 4 POOs.

    Of course this will be thrown out of squilter with some Suspensions of Standing Orders or the Poodle being shown the door.

  29. Completely off topic, but watching yet another re-run of The Dam Busters on GEM.
    Surely one of the greatest war movies ever made and certainly the greatest air war movies.
    I heard a new version was being made in NZ a while back but nothing since. Anyone know about it?

  30. Vic,

    A sure sign is that Steve Lewis was whingeing on Twitter last night of how he was a fair dinkum journo not a trawler of twitter commentary.

    Sounded very scotched and bitter.

    Wilson’s interview kills the story pretty much. The Libs will go through the motions. But, there is nothing to see here.

  31. [It certainly does. It means they’ve fired a gun off too early and will not return if there is nought to it. At the moent it MAY affect a poll or two, not an election which it could have done if it emerged at the wrong time.]

    Exactly.

    As I said yesterday, this is not only their last bullet, it is a tacit admission that Gillard Labor have a very good shot at wining the 2013 poll.

    Why else carry on like this now? Why wouldn’t you let it slow burn until the campaign? Or, if you were so sure (like the press gallery told us for the last few months) that you were going to win in 2013 why bother with this fairly weak attack? Why not employ the small target low controversy route so successfully employed by opposition leaders with solid polling leads heading into an election year? (cf. Rudd in 2007, Howard in 1996).

    It also goes to show that Abbott is still playing the short game — but perhaps now he finally has reason to, as it will be his n*ts on the chopping block if his personal polling (as well as the TPP) does not improve in the new year… hence why for him, the election really is in the next month or so!

  32. Gary

    [It doesn’t matter if the S&G “affair” comes to nought.

    It certainly does. It means they’ve fired a gun off too early and will not return]
    Not if the intention of the all the S&G smoke was to provide cover for TA. He had a bad run in the weeks leading up to S&G being raised.Were questions,serious questions, being asked within the party ? A shift of attention was desperately needed before the final week.

  33. victoria

    guessing only, but I think we’re in for a similar scenario to the misogyny speech.

    Gillard will have all her facts at her fingertips, ready to let fly…but this time Bishop will be the target.

    Make no mistake, the misogyny speech didn’t come out of nowhere. You don’t have detailed quotes and dates at the ready by accident.

    Gillard was planning to deliver that speech all along. Probably had a dixer all lined up, but seized the opportunity offered to her by the SSO.

    Remember, she was a far more successful lawyer than anyone on the other side of the chamber, which is part of the reason for the venom to begin with (we hate those who outperform us in our own field…when they show they can outperform us in ANY field, well….)

    As with several weeks of Parliament the msm has salivated about, this one will end with the Liberals hardly bothering to make a squeak.

  34. [Or Gina Rinehart, the ultimate cashed up bogan.]

    Oh yes! The cashed up bogan par excellence.

    If you told an Englishman that one of our more famous bogans is a multi-billionaire they would immediately laugh at any suggestion of equivalence with chav!

  35. GG

    I guess what you mean is that the hounding by the journos of Wilson to make a statement, was the expectation that Wilson was going to dump on Gillard

  38. [but in the meantime they can all be Woodwards and Bernsteins and try to sound like “Ace Investigative Journalists” just “doing their jobs”.]

    BB, thanks for another fantastic analysis.

    Meanwhile, while the USA had Woodward and Bernstein, we have to put up with a motley crew of Woodheads and Berksteins.

  39. Gary@623


    It doesn’t matter if the S&G “affair” comes to nought.


    It certainly does. It means they’ve fired a gun off too early …

    Premature Denunciation. Characteristic of the LOTO, I am led to believe.

  40. Oi! Some of my best friends (and relatives) are bogans.

    Salt of the earth.

    Look at ‘Kath and Kim’ – they value family. Women are equals.

    Yes, there are whingers. Are you seriously telling me there aren’t in all classes of society?

    And of course there are ‘bad’ bogans. Gina Reinhart is one.

  42. It certainly does. It means they’ve fired a gun off too early and will not return if there is nought to it. At the moent it MAY affect a poll or two, not an election which it could have done if it emerged at the wrong time.

    The only reason that I can see for all the focus by the News Ltd papers on this issue last week was to influence the Newspoll this weekend. It is the last one of significance prior to going into the silly season over the summer. If the PM takes a hit in the polls then the nervous nellies in the Labor Party will have 12 weeks or so to stew over the leadership. If nothing comes of it, Julia Gillard has been tainted as guilty by association. It may also be an effort to position Julie Bishop as a replacement for Tony Abbott if he does not recover in the polls which would take misogyny out as an issue in the run-up to the election.

  44. [Oi! Some of my best friends (and relatives) are bogans.

    Salt of the earth.

    Look at ‘Kath and Kim’ – they value family. Women are equals.

    Yes, there are whingers. Are you seriously telling me there aren’t in all classes of society?

    And of course there are ‘bad’ bogans. Gina Reinhart is one.]

    Oh yes, we all have a little bogan in all of us — it’s how we manage it that is the true test of one’s character…

  45. My hope for the week is JBishop being hoist by her own petard when she will say I can’t recall details of a particular document in a case she handled for CSR 20 years ago; and I think (without evidence of course) that the government has a wealth of relevant cases from the period.

  46. Victoria, Zoomster. I am in the building industry and have lost an uncle [plumber] to meso . Asbestos is now a fearful and despised word. If it gets associated with Bishop, she will be history

  47. Peter Jackson is doing it released next year.Stephen Fry is doing the script. Now in the remake will the dog be called “nigger” ?

    I believe that they auditioning cats for the role to get around the problem…

  48. [It may also be an effort to position Julie Bishop as a replacement for Tony Abbott if he does not recover in the polls which would take misogyny out as an issue in the run-up to the election.]

    Clarence Thomas and Condi Rice did not fool a single African American that the Republican Party had changes its spots.

    Would such a stunt here work for the Libs?

    Maybe, but I doubt women would fall for such a cheap ploy – Ms Bishop would not be selected for her policy positions after all – with the current LNP partyroom she’d be selected in spite of them actually!

  49. outside left

    It was a popular one they kept playing 😆

    What about, am I ever gonna see your face again…. no way PO GF FO 😆

  50. Victoria, Zoomster. I am in the building industry and have lost an uncle [plumber] to meso . Asbestos is now a fearful and despised word. If it gets associated with Bishop, she will be history

    How many sufferers died during the period of the delay that she requested thereby depriving their families of any compensation? This information should be readily available.

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