Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

Nielsen’s latest monthly poll result is little changed on last time, with the Coalition gaining two points on the primary vote and one on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen has come in at 53-47 to the Coalition, out from 52-48 last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up one to 12%. There is also little change on personal ratings: Julia Gillard is steady on 47% approval and 48% disapproval, Tony Abbott is respectively down one to 36% and steady on 60%, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead has gone from 50-40 to 51-42. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds the calling of a royal commission into child abuse, although not without media critics, has the support of 95% with only 3% opposed, which may be the most lopsided poll result I’ve ever seen. Support for offshore processing of asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru is at 67% with 27% opposed. Support for the carbon tax is up two points to 39% with opposition down three to 56%. Three per cent think themselves better off because of the carbon tax against 38% worse off, both unchanged on last time, while “no difference” is up two points to 56%. Fifty-three per cent of respodnents believed returning the budget to surplus should be a high priority, against 41% for low priority.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor losing the point on two-party preferred it scratched back last week, again trailing 53-47 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (up one). Also featured are most important election issues (which has health up 10 and “political leadership” down 10 since July), best party to handle them (Labor has gained seven points on interest rates relative to Liberal and three or four on most other measures), live animal exports (supported for “countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely”) and the royal commission into child abuse (88% approve, 4% disapprove).

UPDATE 3 (20/11): Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll from the last two weekends has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36.5%, the Coalition down 4.5% to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. This is very like the Morgan result before last but quite unlike the previous poll, the Coalition’s primary vote having gone from 38.5% to 43% and back again. It pans out to a 51-49 lead to Labor on previous election preferences, after they trailed 52-48 last time. Where this poll differs from the normal Morgan form is in having a similar result on respondent-allocated preferences to two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. This involves 56% of minor party preferences going to Labor, the highest share of any Morgan poll since January, which all but eliminates the gap between the two measures and brings Morgan closer into alignment with Nielsen, which if anything has found Labor slightly out-performing the 2010 election on preferences in its respondent-allocated measure. Also featured are gender breakdowns, which have Labor leading 55.5-44.5 among women and trailing 54.5-45.5 among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,192 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [Green vote up?

    Poppycock!]

    centre – if labor’s vote has increased because of the failure of the carbon tax scare, it also follows that the anger people felt towards to greens because of the carbon tax scare will also abate.

    i find less credible the 2 primate vote increase to the libs whilst abbott’s popularity and PPM take further dive.

    My read of the poll – no real change; people do not like nor trust Mr abbott. hopefully they’ll keep him as LOTO – i really want to see him lose the next election.

    I think it is time the PM ripped into him again. I think the challenge should be “Bring one costed policy to the Australian people – just one – make it ‘Direct Action’, and explain why a taxpayer-funded system of bureaucrats and ministers picking winners will be fairer and cheaper than a market based system. Anything Direct Action can do, a trading system will do more cheaply and more fairly. Explain what Direct Action will achieve and cost in 2020, 2025, 2030.2040 and 2050 in order to meet an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050. Please provide the names and reports of any economist or scientist not funded by the liberal party or the Minerals Council of Australia who thinks Direct Action will (1) work; (2) work better than an ETS.”

    also – Obama pushing for cap and trade in the US – hooray.

  2. Have to agree with you, I dislike the ‘normalisation’ of violence. Sex is natural and should be seen a normal part of life, not so gratuitous violence.

  6. I mean Senate, TLBD, and the reason for that is that the figures are less likely to be influenced by the popularity or otherwise of the sitting member, which is not what I’m trying to measure.

  11. @Leroy/57

    Yeah I know – I’m interested in easier to read the figures from this blog (since we are in a political blog).

    I find that easier to understand.

  13. Phil on the Carbon question

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/majority-oppose-carbon-tax-but-say-they-are-no-worse-off-20121118-29k9w.html
    [Majority oppose carbon tax, but say they are no worse off
    November 19, 2012
    Phillip Coorey
    Sydney Morning Herald chief political correspondent

    A CLEAR majority of voters believes the carbon tax has made no difference to their lives but the same majority still agrees the tax should be abolished.

    The federal government has labelled the Nationals Senate leader, Barnaby Joyce, ”deranged” after he persisted with his claim on Sunday that the carbon price would drive the cost of the Sunday roast over $100 and added that the cost to abattoirs of a single cow or sheep would be $575,000.

    The latest Herald/Nielsen poll finds public opinion towards the price on carbon has continued to soften, four months since its introduction on July 1.]
    more in the article

  15. [Carbon Tax Repeal (this is now the big question in regards to Abbott)

    Support 56, Oppose 39

    Labor voters: Support 37 Oppose 59

    Coalition voters: Support 77, Oppose 19]

    This is for support/opposition to the carbon price, which isn’t quite the same thing as support/opposition for its repeal. When Morgan asked in April, they had 34.5-59 against the policy, but only 49-43 in favour of its repeal.

  17. I don’t believe the “Impact of tax” responses. Hearts overruling brains and ability / wish to count, I think.

    Interesting that the LNP primary is up only 1 point from Sep 2010.

  21. Report of the repeal question

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/majority-oppose-carbon-tax-but-say-they-are-no-worse-off-20121118-29k9w.html

    “Despite this, 56 per cent still believe the policy should be repealed, which Tony Abbott has promised to do if elected. Mr Abbott has promised a double dissolution election if he wins government and the Senate stops him abolishing the policy.

    The poll finds 39 per cent oppose repealing the tax.”

  22. Thanks Spur – I see now. Funnily enough, the support the policy and support the repeal numbers are exactly the same. Perhaps there ceased to be a distinction in these attitudes once the policy was introduced.

  23. Barnaby’s statements are plainly absurd. What is puzzling is that his collaborators in the LNP seem happy to go along with him. Surely they cannot all believe his nonsense.

  28. Looks like Tone has taken a big hit in all States. WA doesn’t seem to be full of his fans. Even in Q, he is only 46-46 with JGPM.

  29. If 56% think it makes no difference to them personally then you’d be entitled to claim the carbon price has fizzled as a vote-changing issue.

    At least some of those who say it makes no difference to them must also be in favour of repeal. I suppose this is logical in its own way: if something is having no discernible effect, then repealing it won’t make any difference either.

    I think when the Government is able to show that the carbon price is reducing pollution, support for it will increase and opposition to repeal will also decline.

  30. Where do you reckon the COAL got an extra 2 points 2PP compared to last time?
    Not from an improvement in TA’s rating, not from a decline in JG’s, not from PPM [JG has a majority], not from the carbon price [ahem], which has improved by +5, not from the Royal Commission with its 95% support, a big majority support the Nauru thingy.
    On these numbers any change from last time [52:48] would be expected to be to the govt..
    Is this just moe or static?
    Or ….what?

  37. [78
    This little black duck

    Looks like Tone has taken a big hit in all States. WA doesn’t seem to be full of his fans.]

    WA voters like their politicians to be even-tempered, polite, accountable, available, positive, constructive, prudent, painfully honest (we’ve had the painfully dishonest) and non-abrasive. TA is obviously none of these things. What’s more, he is an oddball and a fanatic…and that is one thing we will not have under any circumstances.

  38. Briefly (& MsAdventure).

    [What does it say to those people who have actually been harmed by violence …]

    Precisely. That’s the main reason that I stopped watching TV 24 years ago. (The other reason was my daughter’s unreasonable demands during so-called prime time … and I’ve never regretted the change.)

    Your comment also highlights the total hypocrisy of the wowser opponents of “p*rn”. To be honest, who gives a flying fiddle about what consenting adults do to each other in the privacy of their own dining rooms? I for one find It deplorable that the violence depicted for the delectation of those Marquises de Sade manqués seems less objectionable to the self-appointed custodians of our morals than those activities that appear to be pleasing to a good proportion of our adult population.

  40. @William,

    Interesting from Queensland, do you think the trend will continue ? I am however, surprised at Victoria’s support though.

  41. fiona,

    Which is why old stuff like Colombo, A touch of Frost, Morse go down well here. New Tricks is a recent one that doesn’t do graphic violence.

  42. … deep breathing is now detected from the vicinity of Fiona’s bedroom.

    Conclusion: she might be asleep. Or practising deep breathing exercises.

  44. crikey whitey,

    [ Scorpio

    If you are about.

    Went today to the 80th Anniversary of the Dover Square Tennis Club. ]

    I expect my in-laws may have been there today too. I’ll tell Mrs Scorpio about it. She and her sister & brother all played tennis there.

    Thanks for the hat tip!

  46. [89
    This little black duck

    briefly,

    Like Michaelia and Mathias?]

    They prove the Senate is a refuge for otherwise unelectable insiders. If voters ever listened to Cash, they would be shocked.

    As for Abbott, we would like to think we can spot a fake when they cross the Nullarbor. He is just another loud-mouth who is not focused on the things that matter to WA.

  47. Zoidlord, the state breakdowns are from small samples, so I’d be careful not to read too much into it. It’s clear enough though that it’s in Queensland that Labor has gained the most ground.

  48. fiona,

    Diana Rigg is still around.
    [Michael Parkinson, who first interviewed Rigg in 1972, described her as the most desirable woman he ever met who “radiated a lustrous beauty.”]
    Wiki.

  49. fiona

    [Precisely. That’s the main reason that I stopped watching TV 24 years ago. (The other reason was my daughter’s unreasonable demands during so-called prime time … and I’ve never regretted the change.]

    I used to be total ABC watcher but since Scott’s regime I never watch news or co=urrent affairs, mainly only nature documentaries.

    ABC news and current affairs is shallow in meaningless, mainly a Murdoch repeat (I assume).

    After 5 years of ALP rule I find it appalling that the taxpayer funded ABC news just gets worse. No requirement for truth or professionalism.

  50. fiona, I’m with you on the hypocrisy…what can be done about it? I don’t know anyone that actually espouses violence, and can’t think of anyone who objects to sex…and yet what is permitted in the public domain is exactly the opposite of what occurs in people’s private lives…..very strange. It is as if we do not want the content of our own lives turned into public fantasy: only the imaginary lives of some idealised/objectified “others” may be dramatised and broadcast. This is odd.

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