Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

Nielsen’s latest monthly poll result is little changed on last time, with the Coalition gaining two points on the primary vote and one on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen has come in at 53-47 to the Coalition, out from 52-48 last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 45%, with Labor steady on 34% and the Greens up one to 12%. There is also little change on personal ratings: Julia Gillard is steady on 47% approval and 48% disapproval, Tony Abbott is respectively down one to 36% and steady on 60%, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead has gone from 50-40 to 51-42. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds the calling of a royal commission into child abuse, although not without media critics, has the support of 95% with only 3% opposed, which may be the most lopsided poll result I’ve ever seen. Support for offshore processing of asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru is at 67% with 27% opposed. Support for the carbon tax is up two points to 39% with opposition down three to 56%. Three per cent think themselves better off because of the carbon tax against 38% worse off, both unchanged on last time, while “no difference” is up two points to 56%. Fifty-three per cent of respodnents believed returning the budget to surplus should be a high priority, against 41% for low priority.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research has Labor losing the point on two-party preferred it scratched back last week, again trailing 53-47 from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (up one). Also featured are most important election issues (which has health up 10 and “political leadership” down 10 since July), best party to handle them (Labor has gained seven points on interest rates relative to Liberal and three or four on most other measures), live animal exports (supported for “countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely”) and the royal commission into child abuse (88% approve, 4% disapprove).

UPDATE 3 (20/11): Roy Morgan’s face-to-face poll from the last two weekends has Labor up a point on the primary vote to 36.5%, the Coalition down 4.5% to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. This is very like the Morgan result before last but quite unlike the previous poll, the Coalition’s primary vote having gone from 38.5% to 43% and back again. It pans out to a 51-49 lead to Labor on previous election preferences, after they trailed 52-48 last time. Where this poll differs from the normal Morgan form is in having a similar result on respondent-allocated preferences to two-party preferred, with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. This involves 56% of minor party preferences going to Labor, the highest share of any Morgan poll since January, which all but eliminates the gap between the two measures and brings Morgan closer into alignment with Nielsen, which if anything has found Labor slightly out-performing the 2010 election on preferences in its respondent-allocated measure. Also featured are gender breakdowns, which have Labor leading 55.5-44.5 among women and trailing 54.5-45.5 among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,192 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. ruawake@5081


    Its live again. Also see Daily Telegraph front page.


    They took it down to pixelate Wilson’s child’s face. Pagemasters have no shame.

    Ru, you know perfectly well that taking the site down to pixellate the face is not necessary.

    You pixellate it, ten seconds max, you upload the new image, job done.

  3. drop Quiney for Khawaja – Yes

    drop Wade for Haddin – nah Wade is a better keeper and batsman.

    drop Ponting for Watson – just drop Ponting and put our best batsman (Clarke) at 3

    drop Siddle for Starc – Isn’t Starc injured? Anyhoo he will get his chance when one of the others get injured.

  5. But while we are talking numbers BW, suppose, hypothetically, some asylum seekers presented with, to pull a number out of the air, $5million dollars and said how about I invest in government bonds or shares in Australia.

    How should the regime respond then, in your opinion?

  6. Hello all.

    I happened to watch the SBS news tonight and was amused by one thing, concerned by another.

    On the topic of media bias, I found the reporting of the cricket amusing. The TV news had talk of a brilliant South African fight back with a chance of winning. The website news more realistically pointed out that Australia is still well on side.

    The concerning story was about the ongoing imprisonment of an Australian (citizen) doctor still imprisoned in China after almost two years without trial, after a business deal went bad. The family was filmed complaining that DFAT had advised them to say nothing to the media, which had achieved nothing. Even worse, SBS then reported the DFAT response at they had recently contacted the Chinese government, mplying that they had taken no action for almost two years.

    Regardless of the truth, it is a very bad look. Carr needs to say something quickly, before this gets out of control. On the face ofit, someone in DFAT needs to at least be disciplined.

    As for the Gillard ancient history, that is all it is. It wil blow over. Substantive current failures, like this DFAT one, risk far more votes.

  7. OC:
    Yes, please people, Wilson’s comments are no more credible than Blewitt’s. It’s just kicking the story can down the road without adding anything to the nothingness at the heart of it all.

    Wilson’s comments don’t “prove” Julia Gillard’s side of the story; they don’t prove or disprove anything.

    If the OM and the LNP want to perpetuate this non-story they will do so regardless of what anyone says at this point.

  8. sprocket,

    You’re like NSW Labor Party. Wait until others achieve success and then try and muscle in.

    What will happen rather than your fanatasy.

    Starc for Pattinson (injured)
    Watson for Ponting (Time to move on)

    Kwarjah can’t field. Will be out for awhile.

  9. frednk

    [you have to take you pick from misrepresentation or incompetence.]

    No, you don’t.

    Firstly, the recommendations haven’t all been rolled out yet.

    Secondly, that something doesn’t work doesn’t mean that those who suggested it were either disingeneous or incompetent.

    I’m glad for you – you’re obviously one of the rare human beings who has always had everything turn out exactly as you expected it to.

    If that consistently happened all the time with government, we wouldn’t need as much of it as we have.

  10. Folks, while this is an interesting development, it will not stop the Coalition or the online nutters (Mike Smith & co). The smear effort will troll on.

    As Oakeshott Country said, the guy talking about Gillard is himself not automatically reliable. After all, it was him & Blewitt as the actual culprits. However, it is a good development for Gillard in this on-going non story beatup.

  11. Fran

    BW

    I am prepared to bodgy up a list of flight wannabes for the Greens but they are not interested. They don’t want to talk numbers. In fact, mention the word ‘numbers’ and your average Greens gets a panic attack.

    No … just a pertinence attack. The numbers are not yet pertinent. We can talk models for determining resettlement, which is a far better thing.

    The Refugee COnvention only requires us to protect those who seek it from us, have a bona fide claim and present within our jurisdiction. That’s not tens of millions, or even millions.

    Well, there lies the rub. The numbers are not yet pertinent. But they will be, as soon as the Greens government free plane trips apply, won’t they?

  12. Heard Tony Abbott again utter that old cliche about ‘lost control of our borders’. Interviewers should challenge him when he uses that phrase. Are our Customs controls not being carried out? Are they, for some reason, ineffective? Is he accusing our Customs service of incompetence or worse? Are people arriving on planes and boats at our airports, seaports and beaches, wandering off without any sort of checks, bringing with them drugs, guns, fauna, flora and other contraband? Are there people and goods entering secretly, for example, in isolated bays or on remote, disused airstrips, without being intercepted by Customs, Navy or Air Force patrols? If he’s not alleging any of these things then he is talking crap.

  13. What a great pickup, but why are they releasing it so early? Is this usual, I don”t trust News Ltd at all

    mari,

    I think it was initially released by accident but when it went live on Twitter they had no choice but to release it themselves explicitly.

  15. Personally, all things considered, Khawaja (IMO) heads the que to replace Ponting, IMO. He has played pretty well at FC level lately, has test expereience and is now taking more singles, and also has an attacking game as T20 showed.

  16. For anyone interested in the Mr Potatohead/Ian Cambridge connection – these two go way back.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/investigations/mcclelland-stands-by-fwa-commissioners-integrity/story-fng5kxvh-1226517701548

    The stench around Mr P just keeps getting stronger.
    Parliament would be a much better place without him. Much as I despise Lindsay Tanner, I have to commend him for one thing – he had the decency to resign before he started white-anting the PM.

  17. fran

    given that I couldn’t get a white Zimbabwean millionaire into the country to care for his blind father, I actually don’t think waving cash around would make much difference.

  18. fran

    But while we are talking numbers BW, suppose, hypothetically, some asylum seekers presented with, to pull a number out of the air, $5million dollars and said how about I invest in government bonds or shares in Australia.

    How should the regime respond then, in your opinion?

    Fran

    I don’t quite get your proposition here. If you are asking would I give priority to very wealthy asylum seekers who are prepeared to invest in Australia then it is not a hypothetical but an actual. We have a category of business migration that would just about cover your proposition, I believe. I am not sure what Greens policy on this would be: it is not covered in their policy statement, as far as I know.

  19. I wondey if they intended to put it up live on the Herald Sun & Daily Telegraph so early. I suspect not. I think it went live on the news.com.au site way too early by accident, went around twitter, and now they are making the best of it by putting it up officially everywhere.

  21. FB
    What a bizzare question -is there some chalkie secret meaning i’m missing?

    Someone woth 5 mill to invest will be allowed to immigrate under the investment criteria and will not take the place of a refugee.

  22. [When WILL the numbers become pertinant?]

    When the Greens are prepared to argue as passionately for the environment and our biodiversity as they are about the rights of people living in other countries to up stumps and come here.

  25. Scarpat 5109
    Thanks for that possibly News Ltd knew story was going to”fall over” and decided to report this to keep circulation up(conveniently just after NewsPoll finishes polling) But the thing that worries me is what Oakeshott Country also mentions , I really wonder how credible Bruce Wilson is?

  27. [Yes, please people, Wilson’s comments are no more credible than Blewitt’s. It’s just kicking the story can down the road without adding anything to the nothingness at the heart of it all.]

    Indeed. This is why the whole story seems odd to me.

    It’s as if those who want to propagate the smear are trying to negate the credibility issues surrounding Blewitt by tying Wilson to Gillard through him defending her.

  28. Wilson says

    [“Relying on Ralph to be your star witness is a very, very risky strategy,” Mr Wilson said.

    “It’s not one I would be prepared to take.”

    Referring to those who are pursuing the scandal, Mr Wilson said: “There is a group of people who are being funded by God knows who. Good luck to them.

    “But they are going to come unstuck, big time. I can’t wait to see what they come up with next.]

    Will the coalition take heed?

  29. Boer

    It was really unbelievable – he was rejected because he filled in the wrong forms. Of course, DoI hadn’t told him they were the wrong forms. (He applied under family reunion rather than business, or something…)

    That was when I got involved, trying to sort the mess out.

    To this day, I don’t know whether he got in or not (had to pass the file on to a Federal MP).

  30. …suppose, hypothetically, some asylum seekers presented with, to pull a number out of the air, $5million dollars and said how about I invest in government bonds or shares in Australia.

    Anyone with that sort of money can live anywhere they want. They would come through the front door with a passport and most likely be welcomed with open arms.

  33. zoomster
    ..

    I’m glad for you – you’re obviously one of the rare human beings who has always had everything turn out exactly as you expected it to.

    ..]

    No I aren’t, but I would be happy to accept incompetent if I was put forward as the expert and I repeated an action expect a different outcome. That is what we have just seen with pacific solution mark 2, another time around expecting a different outcome.

    But that is not the issue, Labor are still in Government and the problem still needs to be fixed. Nasty doesn’t seem to be the solution.

  34. Perhaps Blewett has ‘revealed’ something about Wilson to police (or Wilson suspects so) and Wilson is trying to get on the side of the good guys in advance of the revelations? (Note: I know no more than anyone else 😉 )

  36. Jackol@5103

    Wilson’s comments don’t “prove” Julia Gillard’s side of the story; they don’t prove or disprove anything.

    The $1m – $2m spent by murdoch on this matter so far haven’t ‘proven’ anything either.

    As many here agree, this whole thing is not about proof. Its about smear and no evidence so far that the public are interested.

    What this does do however is provide at least a voice that Gillard wasn’t involved or knew about it. If the former boyfriend is tainted and not to be believed so is Blewitt.

    Same applies to murdoch’s mob desperate to bring Gillard and Labor down. The other OM are just as tainted as well.

    BTW – off topic really – Bruce Wilson hasn’t aged very well. Gillard comes up trumps by a huge margin in comparison.

  40. Leroy

    [I can’t believe this has “gone live” now. Read it!

    http://www.news.com.au/national/julia-didnt-know-about-fraud-scandal/story-fndo4bst-1226523368046

    Julia didn’t know about fraud scandal
    EXCLUSIVE by STEVE LEWIS and SAMANTHA MAIDEN
    The Sunday Telegraph
    November 25, 2012 12:00AM]

    The url doesn’t work currently (24 Nov 2012 @ 8.16pm AEDST). I googles it, and came up with there 2 google entires

    [Julia didn’t know about fraud scandal | News.com.au
    http://www.news.com.au/national/julia-didnt-know-about-fraud-scandal/sto...
    1 hour ago – JULIA Gillard’s ex-lover Bruce Wilson has declared the Prime Minister knew nothing about a 1990s union fraud scandal.]

    and

    [Julia didn’t know about fraud scandal | News.com.au – Topsy
    topsy.com/…news.com.au/national/julia-didnt-know-about-fraud-sca…
    1 hour ago – news.com.au/national/julia-didnt-know-about-fraud-scandal/story-fndo4bst-1226523368046 – view page – cached page. JULIA Gillard’s …]

    It’s not due to be posted officially until midnight.

    Thought I’d post the two in case the article disappears! Trust NewsLtd? Sure don’t. EVAH.

  42. I really wonder how credible Bruce Wilson is?
    mari,
    Perhaps it comes down to a question of relativity – is Wilson more credible than Lewis or do they cancel each other out. The MSM could say it is a falling out among thieves… but at least Wilson was photographed holding his child in his arms which may portray as being more sympathetic than a man who frequents prostitutes…

  43. frednk

    Nothing ‘works’. There is no perfect solution. Whatever we end up with will be messy and will have downsides. And whatever we end up with will have to be adjusted on a fairly constant basis, because the pressures pushing asylum seekers are going to increase with climate change.

  44. [zoomster
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    Nothing ‘works’. There is no perfect solution. Whatever we end up with will be messy and will have downsides. And whatever we end up with will have to be adjusted on a fairly constant basis, because the pressures pushing asylum seekers are going to increase with climate change.]

    On that point I agree, 100%.

  45. Also the article has a comment from Blewitt’s exwife who states that she had no idea that Blewitt had even bought a house, and they were married at the time.

  46. [BTW – off topic really – Bruce Wilson hasn’t aged very well. Gillard comes up trumps by a huge margin in comparison.]

    Blewitt looks rough as guts too.

    Guilty conscience perhaps manifesting physically?

  49. [Scarpat
    Posted Saturday, November 24, 2012 at 8:17 pm | PERMALINK
    I really wonder how credible Bruce Wilson is?
    mari,
    Perhaps it comes down to a question of relativity – is Wilson more credible than Lewis or do they cancel each other out. The MSM could say it is a falling out among thieves… but at least Wilson was photographed holding his child in his arms which may portray as being more sympathetic than a man who frequents prostitutes…]

    Thanks again for reassuring me, especially as they are protraying Wilson “holding his baby” Late starter isn’t he??? Certainly better than frequenting prostitutes I guess

  50. Something the current crop of “good unionists” Jackson et al don’t seem to realise is that on the instant they can be disavowed. Blewitt comes under this category, of course. Perhaps the strategy’s to get the lot of them into hot water & start moralising to the effect that if Gillard’s mixed up with this lot, what does that say for her. But still, Wilson’s said what he said.

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