Seat of the week: McEwen

The Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen has long been one of Victoria’s most keenly contested marginal seats, but the addition of the Labor stronghold of Sunbury in the latest redistribution may have put an end to that.

The most electorally significant change to result from the redistribution in Victoria relates to the electorate of McEwen, a traditionally marginal seat in Melbourne’s northern hinterland which has now been rendered fairly safe for Labor. This results from the transfusion of around 35,000 voters from rapidly growing Labor-voting suburbs around Sunbury, which are counterbalanced by the loss of outer urban areas further east (20,000 voters to Casey, 13,000 to Scullin and 4500 to Jagajaga), together with 10,000 to Indi and 7,000 to Bendigo in rural Victoria. The electorate maintains a stretch of the Hume Highway including Kilmore and Seymour, together with the urban fringe centres of Gisborne, Wallan and Whittlesea. Among the areas transferred to Indi are Kinglake and Maryville, which were devastated in the bushfires of February 2009.

McEwen was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 and held for Labor in its first two terms by Peter Cleeland, who was unseated in 1990 by Fran Bailey as part of a statewide swing which cost Labor nine seats. Cleeland recovered the seat with a 0.7% margin in 1993, but was again defeated by Bailey in 1996. In 1998 it was one of a number of marginal seats which registered a below-par swing to Labor, a circumstance that allowed the Howard government to win re-election from a minority of the national two-party vote.

Consecutive swings to Bailey in 2001 and 2004 combined with a 1.0% redistribution to put the seat outside the marginal zone, but such was the swing to Labor in 2007 that Bailey needed every bit of her 6.4% margin to hold on. At first blush the result was the closest in any federal election since Ian Viner’s 12-vote victory in the Perth seat of Stirling in 1974: Labor challenger Rob Mitchell won by seven votes on the first count, but a recount turned that to a 12-vote margin in favour of Bailey. Labor challenged the outcome in the Federal Court, but the determinations the court made regarding individual ballot papers actually increased Bailey’s margin to 27.

Fran Bailey retired at the 2010 election, disappointing Liberals who hoped the esteem she gained during the bushfire crisis would stand her in good stead in a difficult seat. The party appeared to do well in preselecting Cameron Caine, a Kinglake police officer credited with saving several lives during the emergency, but he was swamped by a 5.3% swing. This made it second time lucky for Labor’s Rob Mitchell, who won preselection with the support of the Bill Shorten-Stephen Conroy sub-faction of the Victorian Right. Mitchell had earlier won a seat in the state upper house province of Central Highlands at the 2002 election, before being frozen out by the electoral reforms that took effect in 2006.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Ben Collier, managing director of Sunbury-based information technology consultancy Collier Pereira Services.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “Seat of the week: McEwen”

Comments Page 23 of 27
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  1. @WilliamsJon: #Israel’s Foreign Press Association asking why 2 buildings housing journalists hit in #Gaza when IDF says targets “carefully chosen”.

  2. [@WilliamsJon: #Israel’s Foreign Press Association asking why 2 buildings housing journalists hit in #Gaza when IDF says targets “carefully chosen”.]

    Maybe the buildings housed Hamas TV and Radio as reported yesterday?

  6. [TV and Radio is not a military target.]

    Rubbish. They get creamed in every conflict just before power and water, ask the Americans.

  8. rua

    Television and Radio are civilian. Not military. Therefore not a military target. Just like a school and hospital are not military targets.

    In a war television and radio are taken off when a town is conquered to stop broadcast of message of enemy. Not a target.

  9. [berkeleyboy: Is Julie Bishop aware asbestos criminals CSR (former client) & James Hardie made huge donations to the #LNP? #auspol ]

    So the libs got money that could have gone to the families of the asbestos victims and Bishop is OK with this??

  10. The things to look out for on Nielsen are Gillard approval (she’s only 1 point from net positive) and Abbott disapproval (will he crack the 60 mark).

  11. Thanks zoid,

    Have a friend flying in to Brisbane airport supposed to land about 20 mins ago. His flight was delayed 30 mins at the start to avoid storms in Bris.

    And he HATES turbulence 🙂

  12. [http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/nsw-south-coast-braces-for-hail-winds-20121118-29k1b.html]

    Big water spout at Batemans Bay, amazing to watch.

  13. Note the hashtag 😀 and the pic 🙂

    [Cranky Frog ‏@FrogCranky
    #ThingsMorePopularThanJulieBishop The Village People: See Photo pic.twitter.com/EcZ3gUoR]

  15. [In a war television and radio are taken off when a town is conquered to stop broadcast of message of enemy. Not a target.]

    Is that from the how to do nice stuff when lobbing bombs at people handbook?

  16. Brett Hansen ‏@RealBrettHansen

    Security guards are now kicking #Harvest2012 people out of the QUT who are sheltering and using the toilet. #bnestorm #fb

    Appalling…

  18. The coalition will be dumber then anyone can imagine , if they dare to continue with the smear from news ltd into questions time

    after it is in the public arena J.bishop defending the asbestos companies agaisnt the victims

  22. [rishane
    Posted Saturday, November 17, 2012 at 6:45 pm | PERMALINK
    This is a bit off-topic, but my younger brother asked me to post it and its important to him, so I couldn’t refuse him.

    I haven’t said much about myself on here so far, but my younger brother is eighteen and severely vision-impaired. He had cataracts at birth, and while they were removed before he totally lost his vision, its remained at only 2/20 vision ever since, with the exception of a period three years ago where his sight went entirely for a few months, for reasons the doctors still can’t properly explain. In addition to that, he’s also also had to put up with discrimination and severe bullying from peers who didn’t understand. Lest this all sound like a total sob-story, he tries to remain positive, and loves sport and games.

    Over the last year he’s written an autobiography of his experiences called ‘My Life in 2/20′. He wrote it (with some assistance from me, who did the typing for him) because he wanted to get his story out there in the world as well as try to help a charity that’s helped him (Guide Dogs ACT/NSW), so I put his work online as an ebook, with 10% of all profits to go to Guide Dogs to help other vision-impaired and blind people. I’m a little biased being his brother and all, but he has a witty writing style and insight into an unusual condition.

    http://www.lulu.com/shop/joshua-greentree/my-life-in-220/ebook/product-20508899.html

    Any help would be appreciated.]

    I’ve downloaded this book and I’ve read a few pages. Enjoyable so far.

  24. [Can we really handle the two biggest “look at moi, look at moi” egos in Australia on #qanda tomorrow night]

    You forgot Judith Sloan, another mammoth ego. Will Tony Jones be able to stop her talking over everyone else? Will Kevin and Malcolm – and Heather Ridout – be able to get a word in at all?

    I won’t be watching, I loath Q&A with a passion. I’ll be relying on PB to tell me if anything interesting happens.

  26. “@harryfear: Israel strikes journos. Confirmed. Israel hit the al-Shorouq building, home to much national and international media groups. #WarCrimes”

  27. guytaur

    War is violent and rules are for the victors.
    Media are always one of the first targeted but in the internet age maybe not so effective, but legitimate targets nonetheless.

  28. [Firing weapons at targets is a bald way of declaring war.]

    But not a war crime. I agree Israel is doing the wrong thing and they are the aggressors, but lets not get warcrimey.

  29. leone

    This might be an interesting part of Q&A
    [Sensitive Tony ‏@TonyIKnow
    Prepare for the inevitable @TurnbullMalcolm pledge of full support for @TonyAbbottMHR on @QandA Monday… #auspol #Libspill]

  30. Regarding the appalling case of Savita Halappanavar dying after being denied an abortion in an Irish hospital, the focus has obviously been put on the need for change in Irish abortion law, and rightly so. However this glosses over the question of the behaviour of the doctors, which has been little discussed. Xanthippe put me onto this disturbing background to one of the professors at the University Hospital.
    [AN INTERNATIONAL symposium on maternal healthcare in Dublin at the weekend has concluded that abortion is never medically necessary to save the life of a mother.

    Eamon O’Dwyer, professor emeritus of obstetrics and gynaecology at NUI Galway and a conference organiser, said its outcome would provide “clarity and confirmation” to doctors and legislators dealing with these issues.

    Prof O’Dwyer and a panel of speakers also formally agreed a “Dublin declaration” on maternal healthcare. It stated: “As experienced practitioners and researchers in obstetrics and gynaecology, we affirm that direct abortion is not medically necessary to save the life of a woman.]
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0910/1224323797477.html

    If she were still alive, I suspect Ms Halappanavar would disagree.

    Ben Goldacre has some interesting background on Prof. O’Brien, an 85 yr old ex-Christian Brothers student and defender of them too.
    http://bengoldacre.posterous.com/irish-miscarriage-case#more

  34. I suppose the International Press could retaliate by giving unbalanced reporting of Israel.

    Wait a minute………

  35. If Dio is around I’d be interested in his views of the medical practice Ms Halappanavar received.

    Surely hospitals all have legal consultants on board these days to advise in such cases? Were they even consulted? In other words, did the doctors in this case obey the law, or use the law to justify (in)action based on their own beliefs?

  37. guytaur
    Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink

    j6p

    Journalists are not legitimate targets.
    Propagandists are and in a war zone giving just one side that is what they are.
    Goebbels was a Journalist

  39. [cud chewer
    Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

    My friend hates me. I enjoy turbulence 🙂 ]

    It all adds to the magic of flying 🙂

  44. [You need to learn. Targeting civilians is a warcrime. What the Serbs were charged with in their massacres]

    No they were charged with unnecessarily targeting civilians and genocide. In other words the wanted to wipe out the population.

    Blowing up a TV station to stop communications is not a war crime.

  45. guytaur

    Goebbels was the media king. But anyway the whole place is a mess and nothing we say or do in aus is going to make any difference.

  46. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

    @Joe6Pack Joseph Goebbels is a Reich Minister of Propaganda.]

    Really ! he was no part of the 30’s-40’s media?

  47. rua

    Yes it is. Not military communication. International media will have more to say you can be sure.
    Remember in last incursion Israel was found to have committed warcrimes. Goldstone Report

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