Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 76 of 79
1 75 76 77 79
  1. When we were newly married, my mother in law gave us an old washing machine. Hubby fixed it up, but – as the laundry was outside, in a separate building – he didn’t bother buying and connecting the pipe which empties water from the machine into the sink.

    I walked in to an inch of water on the floor and declared I would not wash the clothes until he fixed it properly.

    That was over thirty years ago…….

    In much the same fashion, I got out of vacuuming. OH had a very hairy (but beautiful) long haired German shepherd, and took responsibility of vacuuming because of that.

    She’s long gone but no one would even think of suggesting I go near a vacuum. My boys even do their own rooms. I don’t think anyone in the house realises that men doing the vacuuming isn’t the norm, and I’m not telling them!

  2. My say
    What’s the story about these two Tasmanian Marist fathers that is on the front pagr of the Sydney Herald? The paper is implying that the Marists spent a fortune taking the cases through the courts but the boys are still doing time.

  3. Fiona see you around didn’t forget what you said, either March or May next year, just lovely for a nice little break on Mid North Coast

  4. fiona@3747


    The only complaint that her who must be obeyed (and her daughter) had was his insistence of leaving the pegs on the clothesline.

    Just.. exactly.. what… is… wrong.. with.. leaving the pegs on the clothesline?

    I like your dad, he sounds eminently sensible.

  5. absolutetwaddle,

    [ It’s funny how (for example) a Catholic might have the gall to mock Mormons for the American Jesus thing but simultaneously believe they are LITERALLY eating the flesh of Christ every Sunday. Or how a Pentecostal might make fun of the magic underwear then start speaking in tongues at the next service they attend. ]

    Pity the miracle cures at Hillsong & other AG Churches weren’t real. The Government could save a motsa by shutting down Medicare.

    The Private Medical Insurance mob would hate it though! 😉

  6. [Och no lassie. It will confirm what we all know. The Scots invented modernity

    Thank you my bonny man, will watch it, from ye wee lassie]

    Here’s a couple of interesting members of the Scotch diaspora, prob due to the Jacobites’ defeat. There are more – inc a McMahon (?sp) also a senior French officer – but these are the ones I call still recall without running a major search (or many ;-)):

    Germany: Field Marshal August von Mackensen (1849-19450- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlHU1vKlelA; France: Marcechal Etiennes Macdonald (still pic in Al the marshals of Napoleon, famous Generals and Grande Armee @ 3.07 mins http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJgA9BnuSLo

    Cue: Andy Stewart The Scottish Soldier http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCSB_BiNSZo

  7. Fiona,

    [ Apart from that, my father was and is a paragon, even if he is a difficult old so-and-so, and I love him dearly. ]

    If that’s the worst thing my kids can say about me at my wake, then I would have died a happy man. 😉

  8. confessions@3748


    It’s never to late to stir some more things into the mix, I guess?


    You know bemused will just start shaking with apoplectic rage again.

    Bemused on Kevvie is as bad a whinger as my say is about the catholic church.

    You wish!
    I am just pointing out your trolling.
    I don’t attack Rudd, Gillard or any other Federal Govt member.
    I occasionally comment on their performance on a particular issue.
    Spot the difference?

  9. [confessions
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 8:43 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    Sounds wonderful!

    I’ve missed Abbott’s latest gaffe. What has he done now?]
    Exactly what I said when I arrived at Lyne Ladys house. Evidently he claimed that he was the one who approved the vaccination for Cervical cancer in young girls(think that was the gist of it), when really he opposed it and Howard had to put the gun at his head to accept it. Twitter went crazy, funny thing I don’t appear to find anything about it in OM???

  10. scorps

    my mother ‘does’ funeral services for people (did both my in laws, which was nice).

    She once had to do one where NOBODY – not even herself – had a good word to say about the deceased.

  11. [OzPol Tragic
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 8:46 pm | PERMALINK
    Och no lassie. It will confirm what we all know. The Scots invented modernity

    Thank you my bonny man, will watch it, from ye wee lassie ETC]

    Thank you for the links also, Culloden where Bonny Prince Charlie was beaten gives me the shudders it is such a gloomy eerie place, have never see it in sunshine, after that the Scots weren’t allowed to wear their kilts for a long time as punishment, just had the breeches like the hated English men

  12. [ Spot the difference?]

    Indeed I do.

    I don’t fly off the handle at even the slightest mention of any MP, attacking the commenter and accusing him/her of trolling. Nor do I erupt onto the blog every morning shouting and hectoring commenters who have deigned to post something you disagree with – in your case it seems to be mostly women commenters you have a problem with.

    Seriously, you often come across like one of those unhinged loons from 2GB, thrashing about and carrying on like goodness knows what. The next time the urge strikes you to lash out at someone, take a deep breath and count to 10.

  13. mari:

    Sounds like desperation territory to me that Abbott’s minders have to dredge up stuff like that in order to try to convince voters he’s in touch with women’s issues.

    Do they think we’ve forgotten?

  14. Hey peeps! I’ve sobered up enough to be able to think about posting something that doesn’t simply involve me going ‘Tee hee, hic!’ 🙂

    Spent the day in lovely, warm company at lyne lady’s house, along with other Mid North Coast-ish(I’m the ‘ish’) Bludgers. I’ve been fed, watered, hugged and humoured. What more could I ask! I don’t have any jokes to tell, I’m hopeless at it, but I’m sure if I had attempted one they would have laughed at it.

    What lovely people populate Poll Bludger.

  15. zoomster@3766


    scorps

    my mother ‘does’ funeral services for people (did both my in laws, which was nice).

    She once had to do one where NOBODY – not even herself – had a good word to say about the deceased.

    There was a prominent Liberal politician who died who was a bit like that, can’t remember his name, I think he was knighted, and an excellent political journalist now retired wrote a scathing obituary in the now defunct National Times. I’ve got a photocopy of it somewhere in what I laughingly call my filing system…

  16. confessions
    [Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 9:08 pm | PERMALINK
    mari:

    Sounds like desperation territory to me that Abbott’s minders have to dredge up stuff like that in order to try to convince voters he’s in touch with women’s issues.

    Do they think we’ve forgotten]

    Tweeters especially

    C@tmomma You know that is not right, re jokes us lovely Poll Bludgers there would have all laughed at the joke, even if we laughed at different times >:)
    We loved having you there enjoy your time with Lyne Lady

  17. confessions@3768


    Spot the difference?


    Indeed I do.

    I don’t fly off the handle at even the slightest mention of any MP, attacking the commenter and accusing him/her of trolling. Nor do I erupt onto the blog every morning shouting and hectoring commenters who have deigned to post something you disagree with – in your case it seems to be mostly women commenters you have a problem with.

    Seriously, you often come across like one of those unhinged loons from 2GB, thrashing about and carrying on like goodness knows what. The next time the urge strikes you to lash out at someone, take a deep breath and count to 10.

    Goodness me, now you are frothing like GG. Calm down.

  18. PS: one of my fave “Jocks” marching songs; much in sarcastic use by the Scots against English Officers (and troops)min the armies of Lord Arthur Wellesley (later Duke of Wellington), esp during the Peninsular War as well as during 1815 campaigns against Napoleon. The sounds of pipes, drums; marching feet and Hey, Johnnie Cope was often the first indication the main army had that the Jocks’ relief forces had arrived. From memory, it’s mentioned more than once in General Sir Harry Smith’s Memoirs.

    I think it was also used by the American Colonists (many Scots or of Scots descent – and Jacobites) during the Revolution. BTW, can be sung (loudly & sarcastically) at Poms during sporting contests, esp if the Poms are losing.

    Hey, Johnnie Cope sung by Alastair McDonald http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcZ4uMmF0vw&feature=related

  19. don@3771


    zoomster@3766


    scorps


    my mother ‘does’ funeral services for people (did both my in laws, which was nice).

    She once had to do one where NOBODY – not even herself – had a good word to say about the deceased.


    There was a prominent Liberal politician who died who was a bit like that, can’t remember his name…

    Sir Philip Lynch, died 1984 now I just have to remember the journalist, he was the top smh political journalist of his time.

  20. confessions,
    I remember that you are coming East in the near future. So, if you don’t catch up while you are here, I’ll never type to you again! 😀

  21. Confessions 3781
    Only honorary ones today, but next one hopefully at least 3 or 4 male PBers will be there, work stopped them today. Oakeshott Country unfortunately has gone to Sydney to work

    BK 3782
    His name, you would be pleased to know, did come up, but not in the way he would want I think, as did BH’s Bob Baldwin.

  22. Interestingly, the federal Liberals held an immigration ‘forum’ here last week, following their previous seniors and Laura Norda forums here. They flew the odious Scott Morrison over to front it.

    Unlike the last two, this one got absolutely no media attention in the local paper. None. Not even a mention, aside from the adverts the Liberals paid for.

    What did get mentioned however, were several letters to the editor praising Tony Crook and attacking Dean Smith (self-proclaimed Senator for the Great Southern no less) over the wheat bills, and yesterday over the Liberal party’s opportunistic claiming him as one of their own.

    Not for the first time I’d love to see some polling in O’Connor. The Liberals are going hell for leather trying to win the seat back, but are butting up against electors who recall the horrors of Wilson Tuckey who sold them out.

  23. Don,

    [Just.. exactly.. what… is… wrong.. with.. leaving the pegs on the clothesline?]

    Basic science AND economics: the more exposure that the pegs have to the weather (doesn’t matter if they are wooden or plastic) the faster they deteriorate.

    And except in this respect, my dad is eminently sensible.

    Ruawake,

    [WHY CAN’T WOMEN LEAVE THE TOILET SEAT UP?]

    In our formerly two females:one male household, the rule was (and remains) both the toilet seat AND the lid are replaced. That way everybody gets to share the chore.

    Scorpio,

    [If that’s the worst thing my kids can say about me at my wake, then I would have died a happy man.]

    Judging by your behaviour here, that would be the worst, and therefore you will – a very long time away – die happy.

  24. [This little black duck
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 9:34 pm | PERMALINK
    mari,

    Are you having a big relax in PM? Must be a great party!]

    Naw Back home, was thrown out when I proposed a toast to my beloved Pruneface, followed by BH being thrown out when she proposed a toast for her beloved Bob Baldwin

  25. [Oakeshott Country unfortunately has gone to Sydney to work]

    Oh yes, I’d forgotten about that. How awful for him to be located in such a ghastly city after the beauty of the mid-north coast. I’m fond of saying that Sydney is a great place to visit, but even better when you leave to go home!

  26. [was thrown out when I proposed a toast to my beloved Pruneface, followed by BH being thrown out when she proposed a toast for her beloved Bob Baldwin]

    I love it! 😆

    I’m having visions of Lyne Lady’s best Hyacinth impersonation: “We are NOT amused!”

  27. have a chat, its funny than funnier that you could take me seriously
    what i am trying to say is that with all this nastieness on the site you are all driving catholics to vote liberal
    becauce they feel unwanted by the labor people
    i am labor through and through as if one could change

    but the saddness i have felt here the last few days will stay with me for ever i hope your all satisifed with your efforts
    perhaps as the words, do under others as you wish to have done to you,

  28. fess

    One of my rules of campaigning is “make their media your media’.

    That is, if the Libs are promoting an event with ads etc, find a way to upstage them.

    We first did it when Kennett was Premier and did a couple of high profile sweeps through the area. We staged soup kitchens outside the venue, offering cups of hot soup to anyone who entered (including the Premier).

    The media stories were all about us rather than him! (Not a bad effort for half a dozen people, a few placards and a big thermos of soup).

  29. o one more thing if any of you wher e say church of england or other denominations i would of gone in to bat for you expaining that you are just bystanders to a bigger picture that the r c will look after
    honestly as if i could do anything to change anything

  30. my say@3794


    have a chat, its funny than funnier that you could take me seriously
    what i am trying to say is that with all this nastieness on the site you are all driving catholics to vote liberal
    becauce they feel unwanted by the labor people
    i am labor through and through as if one could change

    but the saddness i have felt here the last few days will stay with me for ever i hope your all satisifed with your efforts
    perhaps as the words, do under others as you wish to have done to you,

    Who is attacking Catholics?
    Please provide names and examples.

  31. [confessions
    Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 9:43 pm | PERMALINK
    was thrown out when I proposed a toast to my beloved Pruneface, followed by BH being thrown out when she proposed a toast for her beloved Bob Baldwin

    I love it!

    I’m having visions of Lyne Lady’s best Hyacinth impersonation: “We are NOT amused!”]

    Poor Lyne Lady wait till she reads that, neither of us will get an invite to her place again, she would love it hopefully??? If I remember correctly Hyacinth name did come up?

  32. my say@3796


    o one more thing if any of you wher e say church of england or other denominations i would of gone in to bat for you expaining that you are just bystanders to a bigger picture that the r c will look after
    honestly as if i could do anything to change anything

    Terrific!
    Please go to bat for all the atheists on the site.
    I am looking forward to your posts 👿

Comments Page 76 of 79
1 75 76 77 79

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *