Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll’s recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight’s. However, there’s a significant move on Tony Abbott’s personal rating – and once again, it’s downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

• Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,942 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 73 of 79
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  1. Diogs,

    Apparently, the game changer in the ME is that both sides of the divide have used a recent hiatus in hostilities to stockpile better weaponry.

    Hamas have fired rockets that are reaching in to the suburbs of Tel Aviv. The last time TA was attacked was by Saddam in 1991 with a scud missile.

    I’d expect both sides to be going hammer and tongs for awhile. Don’t forget the Israeli’s have their General Election coming up in January. I doubt whether their local pollies will wanting to look weak on the defence of Israel.

  9. I thought I had heard of the AIG group guy, Innes Willox before.

    [He was Chief of Staff to the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Alexander Downer, from 2004 to 2006.]

    No wonder he loves Workchoices.

  14. [Any politics about?…]

    Abbott is looking for a barista led recovery and will set up a new commission to look at the intertubes (with no extra staff of course) and tell Facebook to do something or something may or may not happen.

  15. How can you protect a whistleblower? Use Twitter
    By ABC’s Suzanne Smith

    [the last week has been an extraordinary revelation to me. Twitter is a powerful weapon to protect whistleblowers like Detective Chief Inspector Peter Fox.

    The lead-up to the interview with DCI Peter Fox on Lateline was extremely tense. I knew the blowback against him would be vicious. As a reporter, you have a duty to protect these brave people who put their careers and often their personal lives on the line.

    Once the interview went to air, you could tell something monumental had happened, just by following Twitter. The mood was poisonous. It wasn’t confected outrage; it was real. Peter Fox had exposed serious allegations of a cover-up and criminality in the Catholic Church and the public were reaching out to him.]

    Good stuff.

  17. victoria

    [When the strains of war lead to infidelity]

    This US obsession about who members of the military are having it ‘off with’ is a bit out there.

    Scratch the surface and seemingly normal people can be quite strange!

  18. [“BISON are large, even-toed ungulates” I believe is the Finns’ nickname for Joe Hockey…]

    The thought of Hockey ‘ungulating’ very nearly put me off my Guinness!

  24. victoria

    [When the strains of war lead to infidelity

    This US obsession about who members of the military are having it ‘off with’ is a bit out there.]
    Fire a hellfire missile into a wedding party. Meh,shit happens . Hanky panky . OFF with head ! Strange indeed.

  25. Looks like Turnbull is auditioning for LOTO judging by his use of misleading stories which is a trademark of the posiion.

    Mal [Rainman] Turnbull’s version:
    [Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has again heavily criticised Australia’s technology media for what he described as its “cheerleader” approach to the Government’s National Broadband Network, saying the nation was “let down by the so-called technology media …]

    Reality
    [A recent analysis conducted by journalism professors at the University of Canberra, for example, found that the majority of articles about the NBN published by the nation’s premier business newspaper, the Financial Review, in a given six week period, were negative or neutral towards the project, with only a small amount being positive towards it.]

    Oh dear, Tweedum or Tweedledee for LOTO.

  29. [Shadow Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has again heavily criticised Australia’s technology media for what he described as its “cheerleader” approach to the Government’s National Broadband Network, saying the nation was “let down by the so-called technology media …]

    Most if not all of the tech media I read tries to be scrupulously fair. Even making a distinction between News, Commentary and Geekness.

    Just because the Coalition has a weak position and no announced policy it is not any media’s fault.

  30. victoria@3610


    When the strains of war lead to infidelity

    Rebecca Sinclair is married to Brig. Gen. Jeffrey Sinclair, a former deputy commander of the 82nd Airborne Division in Afghanistan, who is being tried at Fort Bragg, N.C., on charges including adultery and sexual misconduct.


    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/when-the-strains-of-war-lead-to-infidelity/2012/11/15/1d6c020e-2f49-11e2-9f50-0308e1e75445_story.html?tid=sm_twitter_washingtonpost

    Perhaps (probably!) I am naive, but is adultery a crime?

    If it is, there are a lot of criminals in Oz!

    Or perhaps I should ask, is it a crime in the US? Or is it just a crime in the military?

    If you can’t answer that, is there anyone here who can?

  32. GG

    The only good thing so far in the ME is that relatively few people have died (about 20).

    If you compare that to other hot spots around the world, a sense of proportion suggests the ME gets waaaaaay more media attention than it warrants.

    I suppose the risk of it escalating to a ground war and esp involving other countries is the big worry.

  33. well if it makes people happy to think that way that their lot in life,\but not to read a christmas story book to a child is to deny them reason to think through things.
    a crib is a centre piece in my hall way it was made in germany only a couple of years ago
    so must be still a demand i gave my original to our daughter.

    and the lecturer about the date of christmas re pagans yes i learned that at a catholic school

    today a friend in one of our schools informed me there was a rush on new enrolemnts this week, and quess what
    a large percentage where not catholic
    make of that what you want

    some may live in a closed shop but not all of
    each to his own, but i think our christmas is filled with joy and hope for the future, i play the panio rather welll if i do say so my self so the childre gather around and i play lots of christmas songs
    would not have it any other way

    and midnight mass the night before
    so magical when we leave the church i use to imagine father christmas on his sleigh some where up there
    most of my christmas quilts are of that vain

  34. Turnbull tweeted he has all the facts and figures he needs on his I gadget.

    Must remember this when he fluffs an answer for not being able to recall – silly politician.

  36. don

    Adultery is a crime in some US states and you can be court-martialled for it in the military. That was one of Petraeus’ many problems.

  37. TLBD – Connie’s fun because she is so incompetent.

    Remember the ‘Smoking Gun’ document? It was in the folders that FWA had provided weeks before and it was Connies’ job to have gone through them.

    Better for her to finally be in the Senate rather than working at AGS.

    😀

  38. my say@3633


    well if it makes people happy to think that way that their lot in life,\but not to read a christmas story book to a child is to deny them reason to think through things.

    I also read my children fairy stories – we have a wonderful old copy of the Brothers Grimm.

    Same thing.

  39. Diogenes@3636


    don

    Adultery is a crime in some US states and you can be court-martialled for it in the military. That was one of Petraeus’ many problems.

    Thanks Dio, I didn’t know that.

    There are a lot of things you take for granted, living in Oz.

  43. Lizzie,
    [Bush accidently voted for Obama]

    How embarrassment. He always had a couple of loose screws up top so nothing has changed.

  46. Hello PBers.
    Did anyone else hear Greg Hunt on the 5.00pm ABC news?
    HI and I were driving back from work and he was wittering on about the gov’t ending the solar installation subsidy from the beginning of next year proving, somehow, that this showed the program was a failure because it proved it didn’t produce anything, or something. I didn’t quite catch all of it as some idiot swerved in front of us and we both screeched an expletive rather loudly, and then said to each other “Did any of that even make any sense?”.
    If anyone else heard it, did it make any sense?

  47. TLBD

    [How nice of Bibi! Doesn’t want a war with Egypt?]

    In 1973 the Egyptians provided some serious competition up until they pushed past what was planned to try to relieve the collapse of the Syrians.

  48. [Did anyone else hear Greg Hunt on the 5.00pm ABC news?]

    Hunt is saying he told the Govt to axe the solar scheme, but he also jumped out of an airplane to support the scheme a few years ago.

    I think he has his mind on other things – like being the scapegoat for the Coalition carbon policy.

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